OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 68

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 24, 2012

AD 68 will be a blood bath in many different ways. Both candidates for the 3rd Supervisorial District are running for this. 8 of the candidates are elected officials in the district. Only 3 of the candidates running are incumbents which will allow for three challengers to get elected.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Mark William Bucher– The OC GOP is lucky to have this guy. He is not only one of the true conservatives who has done a lot for the Republican cause, but he is also the OC GOP Treasurer.

Ken L. Williams Jr.– He is currently an elected member of the Orange County Board of Education and a past member of the OC GOP Central Committee.

Noel Stone Parrish– I could be mixing her up with somebody else but it appears that she is a former resident of Los Angeles County who moved to Orange County.

Todd Spitzer– He is currently a candidate for Orange County Supervisor in the 3rd District and an elected member to the OC GOP Central Committee. *incumbent.

Marcia Gilchrist– She has been a solid voice in Republican politics for a long time including her service as an elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Deborah Pauly– She is currently a member of the Villa Park City Council and Vice Chair of the OC GOP. Also she is rumored to possibly be running for Supervisor against Todd Spitzer. *Incumbent.

Walter H. Myers III– He is someone who I consider to be a friend and he is also a very solid Republican as well. We are clearly rooting for our fellow blogger here at OC Political to win.

Lynn Schott– She is currently an elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee. It might be just me, but she comes across as angry all the time.

Nick Wilson– He is currently a Tea Party Republican who is running for a second time for this Central Committee seat after a tough loss in 2010.

Denis Bilodeau– He is currently an elected member of the Orange City Council and Orange County Water district. He was recently appointed to the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Ray Grangoff– Currently a member of Supervisor Pat Bates staff and also an elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Scott “Scotty” Voigts– A current elected member of the Lake Forest City Council and also a member of Assemblyman Don Wagner’s staff.

Joshua Robert Morales– I do not know much about Joshua Robert Morales other than the fact that he is running as a Retail Sales Associate.

Jeffrey Lalloway– He is an Irvine City Councilman and also heavily active in the Lincoln Club. He is one of the real good guys in the party.

Jon Dumitru– An Orange City Councilman and Custom Campaigns client running for Mayor against a Democrat. He is the winner of the lottery spot that will put him at the top of the ballot.

Steven S. Choi– He is a Councilmember in Irvine and also the recent runner up in the AD 68 race. He is currently running for Mayor in Irvine against Beth Krom.

James Brownfield– He is listed as a Business Owner on the ballot but outside of that it was not easy to come up with any information about him.

Fred Whitaker– He is currently a Councilmember in Orange and the most recently elected member of the Council in Orange.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Todd Spitzer
2. Mark William Bucher
3. Jon Dumitru
4. Marcia Gilchrist
5. Ray Grangoff
6. Deborah Pauly

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Yorba Linda Police Contract Update

Posted by Brenda Higgins on April 23, 2012

Door Hanger distributed on Saturday

This was sent ot me by a Yorba Linda resident who received it this weekend.  I had been advised by several different people, that OC Sheriff’s were canvasing Yorba Linda this weekend, and that they were distributing literature and talking to citizens.  I did not see them or receive anything on my door from any group or agency.   I was given  the specific impression that the Sheriff Union  the would be a noticeable presence with their efforts this weekend.  I have not been able to confirm that this occurred. The only indication I have received of any literature being distributed this weekend is this one.  This is NOT from any Pro-OCSD group or the Sheriff union.  YorbaLindaPolice.com is a pro-Brea PD site.  I have no information about who was distributing these, but clearly it was not the Sheriff Union. 

 

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Email not displaying correctly? View it in your browser.
Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs
 

The bids are in for Yorba Linda police services and based on analysis and input from dozens to hundreds:
Please email Yorba Linda City Council and staff to tell them “YES” to support a new police contract and “YES” to making the change to the
Orange County Sheriff’s Department.

IMPORTANT – PLEASE TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION  NOW:
Email the Yorba Linda City Council TODAY and convey your support for the Sheriff’s Department: Take a stand for a better Yorba Linda and Orange County. Tell them every Orange County citizen deserves the most comprehensive services at the best price!
 
Important points:
  • Comprehensive services second to none
  • Highest value for the taxpayer dollar
  • Full service police station in Yorba Linda
  • 120 years of service to the citizens of Orange County
  • Yorba Linda owns all equipment purchased
 
 
 
 OR
 
Go online at HERE to read the proposals before the April 24th City Council Meeting.

The Orange County Sheriff Department’s offer could save taxpayers valuable dollars annually — better price and better service. View the OCSD proposal HERE.

 
 
The Yorba Linda City Council is holding a special meeting at 6 p.m. on April 24 to hear presentations from the three agencies. We need every AOCDS supporter to attend the meeting and speak in favor of the Sheriff’s Department proposal. We are anticipating a packed house and we want to make sure our voice is heard.
 
Unfortunately, certain Yorba Linda City Council members along with a small Anti-Sheriff Department faction have spent the last several months badmouthing the Sheriff’s Department. We’ve had enough. We will not stand idly by and let politicians malign the find work our men and women do for our communities.
 
THE MEETING
When: Tuesday, April 24, 2012
 
 
Time: Doors open at 5:15 pm. Get there early. The city of Yorba Linda is anticipating an overflow crowd and we want to make sure the Sheriff’s Department is well represented inside the community center. Please be prepared to be there for at least a few hours. Bring your family and anyone else who can help us support the City Council majority. We will be providing more information as we get closer to the meeting date.
 
Thank you for your valuable support. See you on the 24th!
 
Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs
Having trouble reading this email? View it in your browser. Not interested anymore? Unsubscribe now.

--- This is the correspondence apparently from the Sheriff’s union.  This does not mention any effort to canvas the city during the weekend, only encouraging members to be present at the meeting and to contact City Council members.  It was provided to me by a resident, not anyone froom the OCSD or their union.

I have not receieved any information that anyone is soliciting public support for or on behalf of Anaheim PD. 

It has also been communicated to me that the City is loging the communications, emails and letters, received from residents and keeping some sort of count of the number of supporters for each agrency.  You can contact any of the Council Members at the email listed on the Sheriff correspondence above, or the City Manager, Steve Rudometkin at srudometkin@yorba-linda.org with your views on the contract for police services.

To be clear, there is no indication whether the Council will make a determination and award the five year contract to one of these agencies on Tuesday.  There is NO other opportunity for the public to be heard, no other hearing is scheduled.  There is NO vote of the public on this, the Council has full authority to vote and determine this issue on Tuesday evening.   

 

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2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 65

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 23, 2012

AD 65 was also available to avoid a circus atmosphere of having over 20 candidates competing for the 6 seats.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Baron Night– He is currently an incumbent member of the central committee and will likely be the lone Buena Park resident on the committee.

Greg Sebourn– He ran for Fullerton City Council back in the 2010 election and fell just short of winning one of the two seats that was up. He is also a candidate for Fullerton City Council in the recall election.

Henry Charoen– Currently a La Palma City Councilman and potentially a future candidate for the 65th Assembly District as he has already formed a committee.

Steve Hwangbo– Also a La Palma City Councilman and although he is a Republican he is not quite as solid of a vote on the City Council as Henry Charoen.

Samuel “Sam” Han– He is currently a Republican staffer for Assemblyman Don Wagner in the new AD 68 district.

Jerry Jackson– He is currently a sitting member of the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Sou Moua– I was not able to find any information about this individual.

Pat Shuff– She currently sits on the OC GOP Central Committee in this district and is a former Fullerton RWF President. *Incumbent.

Alexandria Coronado– She used to be a member of the Orange County Board of Education before she was narrowly defeated last election by David Boyd.

David John Shawver– He is currently a member of the Stanton City Council and a previous opponent of John Moorlach for public office.

Shawn Nelson– Orange County Supervisor representing the 4th district and he has been a solid vote so far. He is also a current member of the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Shawn Nelson
2. Pat Shuff
3. Baron Night
4. Henry Charoen
5. Greg Sebourn
6. David John Shawver

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Showdown with the Sheriff

Posted by Brenda Higgins on April 22, 2012

I posted last week “Policing Yorba Linda” related to the ongoing bidding process for the contract to provide Law Enforcement services to the city of Yorba Linda. This issue is close to resolution as there is a public meeting Tuesday, April 24, 2012 at the Yorba Linda Community Center, 4501 Casa Loma Ave.. I am in receipt of email correspondence from the Sheriff’s Union, encouraging union members to be there at 5:15 because a capacity crowd is expected.

Residents have confirmed that there were doorhangers left on Yorba Linda homes on Saturday. I have no information or confirmation who was dropping these off or whether there were Sheriff deputies, uniformed or plain clothes, canvasing in Yorba Linda on Saturday.

Citizens should be aware of this plan for Union members to be present on Tuesday evening, there is no indication that citizens of Yorba Linda will be given priority seating, it seems that a first-come-first-seated will be observed as with other public City Council meetings. Each agency submitting bids will be permitted to provide a presentation. My understanding is that these presentations will be 45 minutes in length.

This is the only formal presentation and discussion of the competing bids that is scheduled. It is not determined or known whether a vote of the council will occur on Tuesday evening. Residents with any concern or interest in the topic should be present.

I have requested that supporters of any of these proposals to forward information to me. There has been a high degree of interest in the “Policing Yorba Linda” post, and I am happy to share all information supporting any of the proposals here. I have overwhelmingly received information from those clearly in support of maintaining Brea Police, but I requested information from those in support of the Sheriff or Anaheim proposal. Other than anecdotal dislike of Brea Police Department, I have received no data in support of the other proposals. I will provide the information here, that I have obtained in my own review.

Bids and expert analysis

The November 1, 2011 Council meeting in which the Brea Police department was given formal Notice of Termination, in which the Council triggered the Termination process contained in the current contract, agenda and staff report for that November 1, 2011 council meeting are contained here.

The complaint of residents who attended that meeting was that the presence of the Sheriff at that meeting with a power point presentation appeared to be contrived, and not properly noticed to the citizens of the city who may have a high level of concern for this issue, and that the Notice of Termination to Brea PD was also prematurely given in that the agenda item gave the impression that the topic was for open for discussion as to timing process and not actually being voted on that evening.

Now, formal bids have been received, from Brea Police, Anaheim Police, and Orange County Sheriff, and are available for public review on the city website here.

The city has obtained a side by side comparison, and apples to apples comparison. It is here, posted on Thursday April 19, 2012, in the form of a comparison Matrix and a narrative report.

The alleged cost savings of a contract with OCSD (Sheriff)

Reviews and discussions of the bids, as well as a review of the matrix and narrative, show that the alleged $1million savings is not exactly accurate when all start up costs and differences are taken into consideration. The actual savings is about $60,000. The Matrix and Narrative also shows a diminished staffing in nearly every area when the OCSD is compared to Brea and Anaheim. Also noteworthy and difficult to quantify is that Brea and Anaheim are already actively enforcing North Orange County and presumably aware of the unique needs of this community. The Sheriff proposal to cut staffing in nearly every area, while undertaking to police a new area that they have no experience with, should raise some concern. It will be important to hear from Brea and Anaheim, why they chose not to reduce staffing, and from the Sheriff to justify why it is appropriate. (See FTE comparisons and discussions in Ralph Anderson narrative)

Additionally, the Sheriff proposal devotes a great deal of marketing effort and praise for multiple special units and technology under their jurisdiction. (See Sections ix – xiv, Proposal)

When viewed in the comparison study, (Ralph Anderson narrative above) it is clear that most of these special units are available regardless of whether the city contracts with OCSD or not. (Paragraph 19, page 15, Community Wide Services)

The Dispatch center of the OCSD is at the Loma Ridge communications center, which is staffed by 44 dispatchers and handles 2500 calls per day. Anaheim and Brea dispatch from their local stations and handle only the city(ies) in their jurisdiction. This is not cited or addressed as a big issue in the comparison, but the uniqueness of the community of Yorba Linda, the idiosyncratic nature of the streets, street names and rural areas, is something that should be considered in evaluating the ability to respond and effectiveness of communication with citizen callers. The persons staffing the Brea Police Department dispatch, have great familiarity with the community and overall map of Yorba Linda which certainly has an impact on response time and effective response. This seems not to have been quantified.

Distance and response time is included in an empirical fashion with distance only from the Anaheim and Brea stations to the Yorba Linda city limits. Notable is the asserted .5 mile from the Anaheim Hills station to Yorba Linda, it should be noted that the closest city limit to that station is an exclusively retail and commercial area of the city, reaching a residential area is considerably farther, but probably the same or closer than the approximate 3 miles from the Brea Station.

A dramatic difference in the Anaheim and Brea proposals is the existence of a permanent station location. It is difficult to see an apples-to-apples comparison when OCSD is proposing a portable or leased building, neither of which is yet in existence. In my opinion, the information and literature that has been propagated by the supporters of a contract with OSCD on this issue of a “Police Station” is highly misleading. (Protect Yorba Linda, site address is below) The verbiage on that site speaks for itself, and is not completely accurate and thorough as to what is required and proposed by OCSD.

Not included in the Sheriff proposal or the side-by-side comparison is any analysis of the existing contracts of cities contracting with the Sheriff.

The city of Stanton has incurred a $1.7 million increase in its policing costs since 2008, under its arrangement with OCSD.

Dana Point, also contracted with the OCSD, reported a $890,000 increase in law enforcement costs while contracted with OCSD. (Page 4 of this report).

Unfunded pension liability is an ongoing issue for the Sheriff and the County of Orange, as set forth in this County memo, and the possibility of looking to contract cities is being explored.

Analysis of the unfunded liability for the OCSD is estimated at $1.7 Billion.

One of the arguments offered by the proponents of a contract between YL and OCSD is that there will be no financial implication of any unfunded pension liability. This memo and actuarial evaluation seems to suggest differently. There may be no direct provisional ramification in the proposal for contract with Yorba Linda, but in contracting with any agency or individual, the overall financial health and liabilities should be a consideration. The majority 3 council members continue to assert this is a purely fiscal and financial issue, they ought then, to be questioning why all potential issues have not been covered and addressed. This is not a consideration or factor in the OCSD bid, or in the Matrix comparison. The matrix comparison, while very helpful, does not provide any analysis of issues not directly contained in the contract, i.e. non-direct costs, overall financial and organizational health of each entity, and any esoteric efficiency problems due to lack of locally experienced personnel.

Who’s on First

The supporters of the maintenance of a contract with Brea Police can be found at YorbaLindaPolice.com. They have on their site, a list of citizens who support keeping the Brea Police.

There is also a Facebook page, it is not clear to me whether these are the same people of group as the website above, but clearly on the same side in supporting an ongoing relationship with Brea PD.

On that Facebook page, there is the usual ongoing vitriolic exchange, with the usual alignments and alliances. There are also (as usual) repeated anonymous posters who may very well be duplicates of the named posters, but the contention goes on, on this page and on the OC Register site, each time this issue comes up.

In my prior post, “Policing Yorba Linda” one of these prolific commenters chastised me for asserting the relationship between the majority 3 council (Rikel, Schwing and Anderson) and the YLRRR, and the Protect Yorba Linda Group.

The “Protect” site, discusses and clearly endorses the actions of the 3 majority council members. Interestingly, the “Protect” site has a contact page that you can log in as a supporter of a contract with the Sheriff. However, there is no list of who has included themselves in this organization or supports it.

The YLRRR site is here.

On the YLRRR site they provide links to the “Protect” site (Pro-Sheriff), but not to the Yorba Linda Police site (Pro Brea PD).  YLRRR continues to align with the 3 majority that they helped elect, the same 3 which are favorably promoted on the “Protect” site.   The YLRRR has been similarly elusive as to it’s membership and supporters, just like the “Protect” site, have never made public any membership, management or supporter list. Earl Carbonne has asserted, in a post on the “Keep Police” page that he is the current Chairman of the YLRRR, and asserts a variety of oppositions to Brea PD, attempts to factually support the efforts of the Sheriff, while also asserting that there is no “financial” relationship of the YLRRR with any supporters of the Sheriff contract.

This semantical wrangling reminds me of the 2010 campaign wherein, after an expensive and ugly series of hit pieces and robo calls against candidate Jan Horton, Mayor John Anderson, in carefully chosen words stated that “I did not write that piece”. He and Tom Lindsey struggled to choose words that distanced them from the smear campaign.  I do not believe anyone “claimed” responsibility for the hate mail, but it was delivered on the same day and with the same bulk mail permit, in the same size and style, as the piece from YLRRR supporting Anderson and Lindsey.

My comments in the prior “Policing” post continue to fit the overall circumstance, I don’t know who is the puppet and who pulls the strings, but the relationship is unmistakable.

Disclaimer:

It was suggested by a commenter on the “Policing” blog post that I should provide a ‘disclaimer’ that I am a candidate on the June 2012 ballot for the Republican Central Committee.  I don’t see the relationship, and my candidacy has been mentioned on OC Political several times, BUT I am happy to engage in self promotion whenever necessary.

I was a candidate for Yorba Linda City Council in 2010. I do not have a close personal, professional or familial relationship with anyone on the current or past council. I would not support or endorse any of them for re-election. I continue to be disappointed at the degeneration of civility and objectivity in Yorba Linda politics.

I am happy to blog further on information, data or articles in support of Anaheim or Sheriff proposals, in the event anyone wishes to provide it to me.

Posted in Yorba Linda | Tagged: , , , | 3 Comments »

Congressman Gary Miller’s Weekly Newsletter

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 22, 2012

This came over the wire from Congressman Gary Miller’s office on Friday…

Capitol Connection Newsletter

Washington, Apr 20 –

Tax Relief for Small Businesses Passes House
Small businesses are the key driver of job creation in our country, generating 65% of the new jobs in this country over the past 17 years. In California, there are over half a million small businesses that employ over 6.5 million workers. On Thursday, House Republicans voted to provide tax relief to these small business employers. The Small Business Tax Cut Act will allow businesses with fewer than Read the rest of this entry »

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Assemblyman Wagner: Budget Fact Check – Governor Brown Predicts Increased Deficit

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 22, 2012

This came over the wire from Assemblyman Don Wagner’s office on Thursday…

Don Wagner | District 70
Image

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Assemblyman Hagman: Happy Tax Freedom Day!

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 22, 2012

This came over the wire from Assemblyman Curt Hagman’s office…

Curt Hagman | District 60 Read the rest of this entry »

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Orange County Business Council Endorses Tom Daly for State Assembly

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 22, 2012

This came over the wire from OCBC via the Tom Daly for Assembly campaign on Monday…

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

April 16, 2012

ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS COUNCIL ENDORSES

TOM DALY FOR STATE ASSEMBLY

 IRVINE, CA—Orange County Business Council (OCBC), the leading voice of business in Orange County, has endorsed Tom Daly for State Assembly, 69th District. Daly currently serves as the Orange County Clerk-Recorder, and has for the last ten years. Prior to his election as Clerk-Recorder, Daly served as Mayor of Anaheim for ten years, as an Anaheim City Councilman for four years, and as member of the Anaheim Union High School District Board of Trustees for three years. Read the rest of this entry »

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Assembly Candidate Jose Moreno Counters Hatch Act Violation Allegations

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 22, 2012

This came over the wire from the Jose Moreno for Assembly campaign (Assembly candidate Jose Moreno should not be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno) this weekend…

ASSEMBLY CANDIDATE JOSE MORENO  COUNTERS HATCH ACT VIOLATION ALLEGATIONS

PRESS RELEASE, FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE, April 21, 2012

ANAHEIM – There has been a lot of speculation regarding my candidacy for the 69th Assembly District,  and whether the federal Hatch Act applies to my campaign, which I am addressing in this press release. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Bill Campbell’s Third District Report

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 22, 2012

This came over the wire from Supervisor Bill Campbell’s office on Friday…

Photo of Supervisor Campbell, Bill Campbell Supervisor 3rd District, Newsletter, Read the rest of this entry »

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