We have our first mailer in the newly drawn 45th Congressional District from Congressman John Campbell. I expect that we will see quite a few more from him.
Archive for April, 2012
CD 45 Mailbox: Campbell In The Mail First
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 7, 2012
Posted in 45th Congressional District, Mail | Tagged: John Campbell | Leave a Comment »
Supervisor Bill Campbell’s Third District Report
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 7, 2012
This came over the wire from Supervisor Bill Campbell’s office yesterday…
 Read the rest of this entry » |
Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: Bill Campbell | Leave a Comment »
Good Friday Fraud Email Alert: “Bold Explanations” Needed from Dan Hughes
Posted by Republican Willie Brown on April 6, 2012
The email-gate saga continues with Dan Hughes for US Senate (should be mosquito abatement district).
Several weeks ago you may have been attacked in your email box like me, through a list you never signed up for, and received an email from Dan Hughes plagiarizing, verbatim, text from the United States Conference on Catholic Bishops on contraception with no attribution.
Now this.
I’m preparing to enjoy Good Friday with my family to commemorate the crucifixion of Jesus and his death at Calvary, when what pops up in my inbox?
A fundraising email from Dan Hughes, the unapologetic, elusive Senate candidate from San Diego (really from New York) touting a poll in which he is at 2%, or in other words 49% behind Dianne Feinstein.
Now, the poll conducted by SurveyUSA is certainly less than credible by any professional standards (more on that later), but nonetheless let’s assume it has some credibility. Dan Hughes suggests he is leading the GOP field of candidates, but apparently he forgot to check the actual tally and relied on the percentage. Whoops…..he is actually tied with Emken, 24 votes to 24 votes.
I can’t wait to hear his “bold explanation” for this error; one of many errors made by his campaign of late.
Advice to Mr. Hughes: 1) A fundraising email on Good Friday is really tacky and my devout Catholic mother-in-law was deeply offended to receive it, 2) Check and re-check your numbers before you own them, and, 3) Strategically, you should think twice before you rubber stamp a recommendation from your campaign team to promote a poll that shows you at 2%.
On that note, I bid you a good Easter weekend.
Posted in California | Tagged: Dan Hughes | 2 Comments »
Nation’s Largest Taxpayer Group Honors Campbell with “Taxpayers’ Friend Award”
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 6, 2012
This just came across the wire from the office of Congressman John Campbell:
Nation’s Largest Taxpayer Group Honors Campbell with “Taxpayers’ Friend Award”
WASHINGTON – U.S. Representative John Campbell today was recognized for his outstanding pro-taxpayer voting record last year. The 362,000-member National Taxpayers Union (NTU), a nonpartisan citizen group, has announced that Campbell is among the distinguished recipients of the 2011 “Taxpayers’ Friend Award.” Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: John Campbell | 3 Comments »
CD-39: Ed Royce in the Mail
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 6, 2012
I received my first political mailer of this primary election cycle on Wednesday from Congressman Ed Royce. It includes a pre-filled permanent vote-by-mail ballot (permanent absentee ballot) application. The application requires no postage but is sent to Royce’s campaign office.
The piece emphasizes California’s probable relevance in the Republican presidential primary and urges voters to take their chance to defeat Barack Obama and stop Nancy Pelosi from becoming Speaker of the House. Royce signs it with “Vice-Chairman, NRCC” as his title.
The piece is 8.5″ x 11″ and becomes 17″ x 11″ when opened up.
Click on the picture to view a larger version.
Posted in 39th Congressional District, Mail | Tagged: Barack Obama, Ed Royce, Nancy Pelosi | 4 Comments »
Assemblyman Chris Norby Names Dr. Sueling Chen Woman of the Year
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 6, 2012
This came over the wire from Assemblyman Chris Norby’s office last week…
Assemblyman Chris Norby Names Dr. Sueling Chen Woman of the Year
For Immediate Release
SACRAMENTO (March 26, 2012) – Assemblyman Chris Norby announced today that he has named Dr. Sueling Chen as Woman of the Year for his North Orange County Assembly District.
“In a wide-ranging search, I requested nominations from people and organizations across North Orange County,” Assemblyman Norby said. “I was pleased with the wide array of nominations and humbled by the great contributions to the community by so many women in my district.”
Numerous individual citizens and groups submitted nominations for Woman of the Year on Assemblyman Norby’s web site during the month of January. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in 65th Assembly District | Tagged: Chris Norby, Sueling Chen | Leave a Comment »
Will the Fullerton Recall Succeed?
Posted by OC Insider on April 5, 2012
In OC Republican circles, the group consensus seems to be that the success of the Fullerton recall is a foregone conclusion. But is it?
Tony Bushala, the Fullerton developer and owner of the Friends for Fullerton’s Future blog, has spent at least $173,000 ($20K of it from his brother George) to qualify the recall against Fullerton councilmembers Don Bankhead, Dick Jones and Pat McKinley. Due to the timing of when Bushala turned in the signatures, the recall and replacement special elections will be consolidated with the June 5 primary.
Bushala has formed a new committee, Fullerton Residents for Reform, which will be the funding vehicle through which he pays for mail supporting his chosen candidates.
It’s easy to understand why people think the recall is a foregone conclusion: Bushala is a multi-millionaire who is completely focused on the recall, is willing to spend huge sums on it, and the recall targets are old and tired. Plus, there seems to be grass roots support for the recall.
On the other hand, there may be some wishful thinking by recall supporters. Generally speaking, it’s unlikely voters will recall local elected officials like councilmembers, especially ones they’ve been returning to office for years, unless they a) believe there is something seriously wrong with their city and b) voting for a recall will solve the problem(s).
Fullerton is a great and desirable place to live, and I’d be surprised is a majority of voters there think the city is in bad shape, let alone the train wreck recall supporters make it out to be. Plus, leading indicators of a genuine grass-roots campaign are missing. Many of those who show up for recall events or to harangue the council are from outside Fullerton, and outside Orange County. Grass roots would show up in the form of Fullerton residents making donations, small or large, to the recall campaign, yet a review of the campaign finance disclosures show only two Fullerton donors whose last name isn’t Bushala.
Look at it another way. Their genuine outrage at the tragic and senseless killing of Kelly Thomas aside, Bushala and his group took advantage of that situation to basically get a do-over of the 2010 council elections. The primary issues cited by recall supporters are the Kelly Thomas killing and a decades-old 10% water surcharge that turns out to be illegal.
The District Attorney is prosecuting two Fullerton policemen for murdering Thomas and the city’s movement to end the 10% water surcharge let a lot of the air out of those issues. As far as most voters who pay attention to city government see it, those issues are more or less being resolved, weakening the case that the solution is recalling Bankhead, McKinley and Jones.
Recalls are hard to win. In 2001, three Orange Unified School District trustees (one of whom was under house arrest) were recalled, but only after years of controversy and district actions generated wide-spread parent dissatisfaction. Parents organized and teamed with the teachers union to qualify a recall. Even so, the three trustees were recalled by very narrow margins, even though they didn’t work very hard to save their seats.
There are some similarities between the Fullerton recall and the 2010 recall of Mission Viejo Councilman Lance MacLean. In Mission Viejo in 2009, a vocal group of council critics initiated a recall against MacLean in 2009, in hopes of replacing him with one of themselves. Their signature gathering met with slow going and ultimately one of the recall leaders spent thousands of dollars to hire professional circulators to get it on the ballot. The recall election was held in February 2010. MacLean, who only campaigned actively to against his recall in the last few weeks, was recalled by a paper-thin margin of 19 votes out of 14,721 cast. And even that was rendered moot when recall leader Dale Tyler was defeated in the replacement election by Dave Leckness.
The Fullerton recall campaign leaders may have made a major strategic error by submitting their signatures almost a month before the February 16 deadline. If they had waited until that date, the recall/replacement elections would have been a stand-alone special election, probably in July, in which the low-turnout would tilt the odds in favor of the recall. Instead, the recall has been consolidated with the June primary, in which voter turn-out is expected to be in the mid-40 percent. Turn-out in a stand-alone special election would be half that.
The OUSD and Mission Viejo recalls were stand-alone special elections, in which voter turn-out was 21% and 23.9%, respectively. In both cases, the recalls only narrowly succeeded against politically inept incumbents who only sluggishly contested their recalls.
Which is another similarity with the Fullerton recall, one that argues in favor of its success. Dick Jones, Don Bankhead or Pat McKinley don’t appear to be working very hard to save their seats. Jones’ council term ends this December, so he may not care one way or another. Fullerton voters recalled Bankhead in October 1994, and then voted him back on the council a few weeks later, so he’s probably adopting a que sera, sera attitude toward the whole business.
Even if all three councilmembers are recalled, there’s no guarantee they will be replaced by recall supporters. Their best shot is in the Dick Jones seat, where Friends for Fullerton Future blogger and close Bushala ally Travis Kiger is running. Kiger has some big advantages: he can use his planning commissioner title, and he is the only replacement candidate in that seat who paid for a candidate statement in the sample ballot. If Jones is recalled, Kiger is almost certain to replace him.
A number of candidates who ran and lost for Fullerton Council in 2010 are running in the other two replacement elections. Running in the Bankhead seat is Greg Sebourn, a Bushala ally who finished a fairly distant fourth in the 2010 council election. Also running is a Rick Alvarez, who is more or less the establishment candidate. We’ll see if Alvarez can run a strong campaign, and whether Sebourn will run a better campaign than in 2010.
In the McKinley seat, the replacement candidates include Doug Chaffee, Barry Levinson and Matthew Rowe. Chaffee is a Democrat and establishment-type who fell only 90 votes short of being elected to the council in 2010. Levinson is more of Tea Party-type who finished 5th in 2010 with 10.6% of the vote. Rowe is a young-ish, conservative Iraq War veteran.
Even if voters support all three recalls, recall supporters may win only one of the seats. With the exception of Chaffee and Levinson, none of the replacement candidates have shown much ability to raise or loan themselves meaningful campaign warchests. At the end of the day, the election prospects of Kiger, Sebourn and either Levinson or Rowe will largely depend on how money Tony Bushala spends on their behalf through his Fullerton Residents for Reform independent expenditure committee.
All in all, it’s premature to conclude the recalls of Bankhead, Jones and McKinley are sure things. Odds of a successful recall are probably, at this moment, about 50-50.
Posted in Fullerton | Tagged: Dick Jones, Don Bankhead, Fullerton Recall, Pat McKinley, Tony Bushala | 15 Comments »
OCBC Issues Correction & Apology to Mansoor
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 5, 2012
In an embarrassing press release, OCBC had to admit that their score for Assemblyman Allan Mansoor was miscalculated. There have been many grumblings about the misalignment of the OCBC scorecard with those of other business groups, and now just outright getting Mansoor’s score wrong lands another blow to the credibility of the OCBC scorecard. Here’s their full press release that came over the wire yesterday:
OCBC Sets the Record Straight on Mansoor
IRVINE, CA — Orange County Business Council (OCBC) has issued a correction of its Legislative Scorecard, originally produced and distributed last October, 2011. A transposition of one vote caused the score for Assembly member Alan Mansoor to be miscalculated at a lower rate than it should have been. His correct score is 72% pro-business legislative votes aligned with OCBC’s policy positions.
OCBC takes position and advocates on behalf of dozens of state bills throughout the legislative session. In 2011, OCBC identified 30 bills to track the votes of the OC legislative delegation. The list of these bills was provided to legislative members in May 2011. The adjusted calculation of the legislator’s “score” is based on the number of times a legislator voted with OCBC, divided by the total number of times a legislator was present for a vote.
The mistaken score has been posted on the OCBC website since last October. The information was recently used by Assembly candidate Leslie Daigle in campaign material, which is when the error was discovered. The error in information lies entirely with OCBC Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, OCBC | 1 Comment »
OC’s Best Ballot Designations
Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 5, 2012
Ballot designations are the only piece of information that appear directly on the ballot other than a candidate's name (and party in some - but not all - races).
Last week, I wrote about OC’s worst ballot designations. In this post, I’ll be looking at OC’s best ballot designations.
As I said last week, “The most important thing a candidate does in a campaign may well be selecting a ballot designation. That little phrase underneath a candidate’s name are the last piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots. In low-profile races (like Central Committee, where you can’t even get a candidate’s statement in the sample ballot), that little phrase may well be the only piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.”
Elected officials’ ballot designations are an inherent advantage, so I’m excluding the designations of elected officials.
OC’s Ten Best Ballot Designations (for Non-Incumbents/Non-Elected Officials)
- Retired Navy Captain (Emily Sanford in the 74th District Republican Central Committee)
Retired Naval Officer (Norm Dickinson in the 73rd District Republican Central Committee)
Who could possibly vote against the military? People have a deep respect for career military officers, as these people have served their country, have substantial leadership experience, understand complex government bodies, and are educated. - Deputy Attorney General (Peggy Huang in the 55th District Republican Central Committee)
Voters love prosecutors. Prosecutors put criminals in prison. Deputy District Attorneys rarely lose elections. Deputy Attorney General is higher on the food chain, so it should be even more impressive to voters. - Deputy District Attorney (Cyril Yu in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
See above. - Retired Police Commander (Albert Ayala in AD-72)
Voters love law enforcement because the police catch criminals. A retired police commander has served his community, has leadership experience, and understands dealing with government. - Law Enforcement Officer (Jorge Robles in CD-38)
As above, voters love law enforcement because they catch criminals and have served the community. - Businessman/Victims Advocate (Todd Spitzer in the 3rd Supervisorial District)
How on earth do you vote against a victims advocate? That’d be like voting against victims. - Businesswoman/Childrens Advocate (Brenda McCune in the 55th District Republican Central Committee)
How on earth do you vote against a childrens advocate? That’d be like voting against the children. (Of course, we’d expect all OC Political bloggers to have great ballot designations when running for office, and she’s done just that.) - Retired Constitutional Litigator (Jonathan Adler in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
Voters hate most lawyers as ambulance chasers and corporate raiders. However, there are two types of lawyers people like: the prosecutors who put criminals away and the constitutional lawyers who battle for constitutional causes and rights (note that Spitzer and McCune went with “Advocate” instead of “Lawyer” – it’s the same job but “Advocate” sounds friendlier than “Lawyer”). - Emergency Physician (Bill Honigman in the 73rd District Democratic Central Committee)
Doctors improve health. Emergency room doctors save lives. People vote for lifesavers. - Charitable Organization President (Usha Shah in CD-47)
Too many people who work for non-profit organizations run with “Non-Profit Organization” or “Non-Profit Group” in their ballot designation. “Charitable Organization” brings happy thoughts that make voters feel warm and fuzzy. “Charitable” just sounds better than “Non-Profit” even though 90% of the time they’re the same thing.
Interestingly, half of the above are lawyers. Note that none of these lawyers used “lawyer” in their designation. None used “Attorney” except when it had key modifiers to become “Deputy Attorney General” or “Deputy District Attorney” instead. These candidates realize voters don’t like lawyers, but they’re smart enough to realize people like prosecutors and advocates.
Lessons from the group above:
- Non-prosecutor lawyers should generally run as advocates.
- People like the military, law enforcement, and doctors.
- When possible, “Charitable” should be used instead of “Non-Profit” to attract voters.
Best Pair of Ballot Designations in a Two-Person Race: 3rd Supervisorial District
- Businessman/Victims Advocate (Todd Spitzer)
- Councilwoman, City of Villa Park (Deborah Pauly)
Spitzer’s designation was #6 on my list of the ten best ballot designations in OC. Pauly’s designation was ineligible to be on the list due to my “elected officials’ ballot designations are an inherent advantage” rule. Therefore, this race inherently has the best pair of ballot designations in any two-person race.
Best Set of Ballot Designations in One Race Featuring 3+ Candidates: AD-72
- Small Business Owner (Travis Allen – Republican)
- Retired Police Commander (Albert Ayala – Democrat)
- City Commissioner/Businessman (Joe Dovinh – Democrat)
- Member, Orange County Board of Education (Long Pham – Republican)
- Businessman/Mayor (Troy Edgar – Republican)
I noted last week that the five candidates in CD-46 has the worst set of ballot designations in any one race. Well, another set of five candidates, this time in AD-72, has the best set of ballot designations in any one race with three or more candidates.
Every single one of these candidates maximized their occupations and political positions in their descriptions of themselves.
- Allen runs a wealth management firm. “Wealth Management Businessowner” could be offputting to some voters. He wisely (and accurately) chose to describe himself as a “Small Business Owner” because his wealth management firm is a small business, and he does own it. Plus people on both sides of the aisle respect people who own small businesses; indeed, the majority of Americans work for small businesses.
- Ayala’s “Retired Police Commander” came in at #4 on my list of best ballot designations. When the most hopeless candidate makes the best ballot designations list, you know you’ve got a fun race.
- Dovinh’s “City Commissioner/Businessman” maximizes his appointed political role and takes advantage of his job as a general contractor. The “City Commissioner” part wisely leaves off a specific city making it possible he could be a city commissioner in any of the cities in AD-72: Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Seal Beach, Westminster, Garden Grove, Los Alamitos, or Santa Ana. (He’s a Garden Grove Planning Commissioner for the record.) Additionally, there are cities out there (though not in California) that call their city elected officials commissioners instead of councilmembers. For voters looking for candidates with private sector experience, Dovinh’s “Businessman” designation appeals to them.
- Pham’s “Member, Orange County Board of Education” takes advantage of my “elected officials’ ballot designations are an inherent advantage” rule. Not only that, he takes advantage of the Elections Code regulation that allows sitting elected officials to exceed three words in a ballot designation if they use their elected title as their sole ballot designation (this counts as a five-word designation; remember, “Orange County” is legally one word for purposes of the Elections Code). Further, Pham is one of a small group of elected officials whose elected position includes “Orange County” in the title. Since the entirety of AD-72 is in Orange County, his title sounds like he could represent all the people of AD-72 (for the record, he represents Fountain Valley, Garden Grove, Santa Ana, and Tustin).
- Edgar’s “Businessman/Mayor” takes advantage of his status owning two businesses and the fact that he is currently Mayor of Los Alamitos. Edgar is the only candidate in AD-72 who didn’t maximize the word limit, and he also failed to use the stronger “Businessowner” over “Businessman” in his designation: I would have tweaked this to be “Orange County Businessowner/Mayor” or “Small Businessowner/Mayor” though this is still a strong ballot designation. Everything I said about Dovinh’s ballot designation applies to Edgar, with the added advantage that the mayor is leader of a city while a commissioner is just one of several officials. Edgar’s not a directly-elected mayor; he’s mayor in one of those cities (specifically, Los Alamitos) where mayor is rotated on an annual basis among the councilmembers. However, for ballot designation purposes, it doesn’t matter if you’re directly-elected or rotated into the position, as long as you’re the mayor when you’re running.
So last week, I wrote about OC’s worst ballot designations. In this post, these are Orange County’s best ballot designations.
Posted in 38th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 47th Congressional District, 72nd Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Albert Ayala, Bill Honigman, Brenda McCune, Cyril Yu, Deborah Pauly, Emily Sanford, Joe Dovinh, Jonathan Adler, Jorge Robles, Long Pham, Norm Dickinson, Peggy Huang, Todd Spitzer, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar, Usha Shah | 1 Comment »
Planned Parenthood’s Hypocrisy in Rejecting $500,000 Donation
Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 4, 2012
Tucker Max on the cover of his book, I Hope They Serve Beer in Hell. I assume this picture makes it clear what genre of books Tucker Max writes.
Two months ago, on February 1, Susan G. Komen for the Cure (the famous breast cancer research and awareness foundation) announced it would no longer fund $600,000 in breast cancer screenings at Planned Parenthood clinics. Planned Parenthood’s national president, Cecile Richards, said at the time, “We are alarmed and saddened that the Susan G. Komen for the Cure Foundation appears to have succumbed to political pressure. Our greatest desire is for Komen to reconsider this policy and recommit to the partnership on which so many women count.”
Just two days later, on February 3, Komen reversed its decision after enduring a great deal of backlash for its decision to stop providing funds to Planned Parenthood.
Fast forward two months later to yesterday, April 3: public relations strategist Ryan Holiday wrote at Forbes.com about his efforts to help his client, infamous fratire writer Tucker Max, donate half a million dollars to Planned Parenthood.
Max told Holiday: “Ryan, I have a huge tax burden this year. I can reduce it with a large donation to charity, but I want to promote my new book at the same time. Can you come up with something cool that does both?” Holiday then suggested the donation to Planned Parenthood to get a clinic named after Max as a way to reduce his tax burden and improve his public image.
For those of you who have never heard of him, here is a list of Tucker Max’s books:
- The Definitive Book of Pick-Up Lines (2001)
- Belligerence and Debauchery: The Tucker Max Stories (2003)
- I Hope They Serve Beer in Hell (2006)
- A******* Finish First (2010)
- Hilarity Ensues (2012)
- Sloppy Seconds: The Tucker Max Leftovers (2012)
(I’ve opted to censor the curse word in the title of his 2010 book for those of you reading this at work or near your kids. Visit the NSFW TuckerMax.com at your own risk; you’ve been warned.)
Needless to say, Max has been repeatedly called a misogynist and was even deemed a “poster child for the vulgarity [sic]” in a federal court ruling.
Planned Parenthood turned down the $500,000 donation from Tucker Max, expressing their concern about the way people perceive Max’s writing. They eventually told Max, “We don’t feel it would be appropriate, given Planned Parenthood’s mission and your body of work, to accept your donation.” An exasperated Max responded, “What? I thought Planned Parenthood’s mission was about helping women, not passing judgment on humor.”
(The argument that Planned Parenthood didn’t want to participate in a Tucker Max publicity stunt doesn’t hold water because Max offered to make the donation anonymously after the initial rejection, but Planned Parenthood turned his anonymous donation down too.)
Considering Planned Parenthood was “alarmed and saddened that the Susan G. Komen for the Cure Foundation appears to have succumbed to political pressure” when Komen (initially) decided to end its $600,000 in funding for Planned Parenthood, it’s rather hypocritical for them to turn down $500,000 in funding from Tucker Max on the basis of the perception of his writing.
Posted in National | Tagged: Planned Parenthood, Susan G. Komen for the Cure, Tucker Max | 3 Comments »
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