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June 2014 Post-Election Analysis: Lieutenant Governor

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 16, 2014

We now move on to the race for Lieutenant Governor which will see former California Republican Party Chairman Ron Nehring take on sitting Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom in the November run-off.

The June election was between eight candidates and unfortunately for Republicans Gavin Newsom is teetering close to 50% of the vote despite having one other Democrat on the ballot (ballots are not completely finished being counted).

california_flag

Nehring advances to November after easily finishing ahead of Republicans David Fennell & George Yang. Here are the statewide results on the race:

Candidate Votes Percent
Eric Korevaar (Party Preference: DEM) 224,800
5.5%
* Gavin Newsom (Party Preference: DEM) 2,022,663
49.9%
David Fennell (Party Preference: REP) 348,390
8.6%
Ron Nehring (Party Preference: REP) 949,328
23.4%
George Yang (Party Preference: REP) 324,446
8.0%
Jena F. Goodman (Party Preference: GRN) 94,224
2.3%
Amos Johnson (Party Preference: P&F) 38,307
0.9%
Alan Reynolds (Party Preference: AE) 54,157
1.3%

Turnout in Orange County is slightly concerning if you look at the fact that Newsom finished in first place, However, the vote total for all Republicans in OC totals 56% of the vote and Nehring finished 20% ahead of the closest Republican challenger:

Lieutenant Governor
Completed Precincts: 1856 of 1856
Vote Count Percentage
* GAVIN NEWSOM 110,859 34.7%
RON NEHRING 107,447 33.6%
DAVID FENNELL 41,474 13.0%
GEORGE YANG 31,409 9.8%
ERIC KOREVAAR 15,161 4.7%
JENA F. GOODMAN 5,589 1.7%
ALAN REYNOLDS 5,319 1.7%
AMOS JOHNSON 2,369 0.7%

Despite having multiple Republican opponents Nehring still managed to finish ahead of Newsom in a majority of Orange County cities including Brea, Dana Point, Fountain Valley, Huntington Beach, La Habra, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest, Los Alamitos, Mission Viejo, Newport Beach, Orange, Placentia, Rancho Santa Margarita, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, Villa Park, and Yorba Linda

Statewide though Newsom had a very large advantage geographically. The most shocking thing for me was noticing that Nehring did not come in first in his home county of San Diego:

June_LG_Map_Fixed

The most shocking thing of all though is that Nehring did as well as he did raising only $23,000 for a statewide race and spending even less than that (expenditures are through 5-17-2014):

Consultants $0
Campaign Literature/Mailings $800
Campaign Paraphernalia/Miscellaneous $0
Television/Cable $0

Newsom raised almost ten times as much as Nehring in this period and spent substantially more (expenditures are through 5-17-2014):

Consultants $122,000
Campaign Literature/Mailings $700
Campaign Paraphernalia/Miscellaneous $9,000
Television/Cable $0

Nehring is not one of the Republican candidates that I would say is in great position going forward. Newsom is likely going to campaign extremely hard in order to show strength for 2018 where it is rumored that he might take on Attorney General Kamala Harris for Governor. Newsom did not come anywhere close to the numbers that Jerry Brown had in spite of the fact that Brown faced more opponents and had two better funded challengers.

I am going to vote for Ron Nehring for the good of the Republican Party and because I think he would make a much better Lieutenant Governor than Gavin Newsom. However, this particular seat will be an uphill battle unless Nehring can raise a lot of money going forward.

3 Responses to “June 2014 Post-Election Analysis: Lieutenant Governor”

  1. There are at least five of us who generate south OC voter guides every election cycle that are distributed to our friends and family. Every one of us recommended Ron Nehring for Lt. Gov. Im certain we had a positive impact on his success in OC

  2. Greg Diamond said

    I wouldn’t really call Nehring’s success despite his low spending “shocking”; the competition was not exactly fierce.

  3. OCInsider#33 said

    Nehring’s second place finish in “Red” Orange County can be read as an epic failure. There was no one good to vote for in this race.

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