June 2014 Post-Election Analysis: Lieutenant Governor
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 16, 2014
We now move on to the race for Lieutenant Governor which will see former California Republican Party Chairman Ron Nehring take on sitting Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom in the November run-off.
The June election was between eight candidates and unfortunately for Republicans Gavin Newsom is teetering close to 50% of the vote despite having one other Democrat on the ballot (ballots are not completely finished being counted).
Nehring advances to November after easily finishing ahead of Republicans David Fennell & George Yang. Here are the statewide results on the race:
|Eric Korevaar (Party Preference: DEM)||224,800||
|*||Gavin Newsom (Party Preference: DEM)||2,022,663||
|David Fennell (Party Preference: REP)||348,390||
|Ron Nehring (Party Preference: REP)||949,328||
|George Yang (Party Preference: REP)||324,446||
|Jena F. Goodman (Party Preference: GRN)||94,224||
|Amos Johnson (Party Preference: P&F)||38,307||
|Alan Reynolds (Party Preference: AE)||54,157||
Turnout in Orange County is slightly concerning if you look at the fact that Newsom finished in first place, However, the vote total for all Republicans in OC totals 56% of the vote and Nehring finished 20% ahead of the closest Republican challenger:
|Completed Precincts: 1856 of 1856|
|* GAVIN NEWSOM||110,859||34.7%|
|JENA F. GOODMAN||5,589||1.7%|
Despite having multiple Republican opponents Nehring still managed to finish ahead of Newsom in a majority of Orange County cities including Brea, Dana Point, Fountain Valley, Huntington Beach, La Habra, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest, Los Alamitos, Mission Viejo, Newport Beach, Orange, Placentia, Rancho Santa Margarita, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, Villa Park, and Yorba Linda
Statewide though Newsom had a very large advantage geographically. The most shocking thing for me was noticing that Nehring did not come in first in his home county of San Diego:
The most shocking thing of all though is that Nehring did as well as he did raising only $23,000 for a statewide race and spending even less than that (expenditures are through 5-17-2014):
Campaign Literature/Mailings $800
Campaign Paraphernalia/Miscellaneous $0
Newsom raised almost ten times as much as Nehring in this period and spent substantially more (expenditures are through 5-17-2014):
Campaign Literature/Mailings $700
Campaign Paraphernalia/Miscellaneous $9,000
Nehring is not one of the Republican candidates that I would say is in great position going forward. Newsom is likely going to campaign extremely hard in order to show strength for 2018 where it is rumored that he might take on Attorney General Kamala Harris for Governor. Newsom did not come anywhere close to the numbers that Jerry Brown had in spite of the fact that Brown faced more opponents and had two better funded challengers.
I am going to vote for Ron Nehring for the good of the Republican Party and because I think he would make a much better Lieutenant Governor than Gavin Newsom. However, this particular seat will be an uphill battle unless Nehring can raise a lot of money going forward.