OC Political

I got a press release this morning from Jim Lacy at Landslide Communications touting a poll that they ran in the 52nd Congressional District race that is likely going to see a November matchup of Democrat Incumbent Scott Peters and Republican former Councilmember Carl Demaio. This is one of the most competitive seats in the State of California (Congress) and will likely have both sides spending a lot of resources.

Republican Carl DeMaio, former member of the San Diego City Council, is in a statistical tie with Democrat incumbent Scott Peters in the race for the 52nd Congressional District in San Diego County next year, according to a new poll commissioned by Landslide Communications.

The Landslide poll was taken late last week and includes 606 participants who are “likely voters.”  The interviews were conducted and data compiled by NSON of Salt Lake City, a respected polling firm.  Significant findings include that DeMaio is currently tied with Peters, even when voters are informed that DeMaio is gay and supports gay marriage, and that introducing those issues to the voter has no significant statistical affect on their response, even when given another Republican candidate to opt for.

Click on the links below to read the poll summary or cross-tabulations, and today’s FlashReport article on the survey which notes it is “good news for DeMaio.”

Landslide        52nd CD Poll Executive Summary

Landslide        poll. 52nd CD. Crosstabs

http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2013/06/18/breaking-cd-52-survey-demaios-being-gay-and-support-of-ssm-not-an-issue-with-district-gop-voters/

In my opinion this race is shaping up to be a Republican gain in 2014 and will likely be as close as they come. In 2012 Scott Peters beat Brian Bilbray by less than 7,000 votes, this is with Obama on the ballot driving out Democrats to vote. Gubernatorial elections have much higher turnout for Republicans and Demaio has strong name ID having just been on the ballot for Mayor of San Diego in 2012 (gave Bob Filner a run for his money too). The stars appear to be aligning for Demaio and the Republicans on this one, hopefully the campaigns play out favorably on this one.