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Poll Numbers Being Circulated, Moorlach Ahead in CD 45 Race

Posted by Scott Carpenter on January 31, 2014

Before I say anything for the purposes of full disclosure I would like to say that I am a personal friend of the Moorlach family and work on the same floor as him at the County Hall of Administration. I also have a good relationship with Senator Walters’ staff and was a volunteer for her State Senate campaign, as an OC Young Republican board member I spent dozens of hours volunteering for her campaign. I do not know Greg Raths all that well, I’ve met him a few times and as State Vice-Chair of the Young Republicans I gave him an opportunity to speak at our last meeting at the CRP convention. Now on to the news:
 
A few months ago a friend of mine in Sacramento sent me a random message on facebook saying “Hey do you know who’s doing polling in CD 45?” I had no clue a poll was being conducted…and shortly after Pat Maciariello that episode dropped out of the race. So in my own head I came up with the theory it must have been Pat doing polling to check viability. Since then I always kind of wondered what the numbers looked like. Given my personal friendships with many directly involved with this race it was just something I was  really curious about.
 
Then the other day someone who had taken a peek at a recent poll passed on the results they saw from a recent poll to me: Moorlach is ahead in name ID and in raw results, Walters in second and Raths barely registers. When respondents are asked about Mimi’s car tax vote, Moorlach is WAY ahead. I assume the name ID out of the gate gives Moorlach a pretty good advantage being that he was a countywide elected official for more than 10 years, much like Allan Hoffenblum and Harvey Englander predicted early in the race in this OC Register article. I thought to myself because the poll included a question about Mimi’s car tax vote, this clearly had to be Moorlach doing the recent polling. So I just texted someone from Moorlach’s camp asking if A.) It was them doing the polling and B.) The numbers were true. Without going in to detail with me they basically confirmed my suspicion and left it at “more to come…”
 
So I guess now we wait to see what “more to come” is…

3 Responses to “Poll Numbers Being Circulated, Moorlach Ahead in CD 45 Race”

  1. KenCoop said

    Has there been any financial disclosures in this race? Polling data is worthless unless one has a way to get that message to the voters.

    • Scott Carpenter said

      That’s fairly obvious KenCoop. Being that the Register article I posted addressed that exact point I didn’t feel the need to be redundant. Polling is valuable as a gauge of where you are and where you need to be, its been widely speculated that Maciariello dropped out because of a result of his internal polling.

  2. KenCoop said

    An interesting comment in today’s Nooner from Scott Lay:

    In CD45, we need to wonder if Supervisor John Moorlach is still a candidate against Mimi Walters, who has an 11:1 cash advantage.

    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/nooner/2014-02-03.html

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