Michelle Steel v. Alan Mansoor: Who Stand to Gain the Most and Who Has the Most to Lose?
Posted by Dominus on May 6, 2013
While political insiders gossip about the possibility of Assemblyman Allan Mansoor giving up his third term in the lower house of the Legislature to challenge BOE Member Michelle Steel for the position of OC Supervisor, 2nd District, the Daily Pilot made the whole situation public last week.
Conventional wisdom predicted that Allan Mansoor will run for State Senate in the beginning of 2015 when incumbent Senator Mimi Walters vacate her seat after her installation on to the Orange County Board of Supervisors. The most obvious threat to Allan Mansoor for this senate seat is Assemblyman Don Wagner. Both Wanger and Mansoor were elected in 2010 so both are termed-out at the end of 2016.
Last week, Allan Mansoor did a huge favor to Don Wagner by telling the local press that he is mulling a run for OC Supervisor.
But Wagner is not the only one who stand to gain the most – Supervisor John Moorlach is also benefiting from a possible Steel v. Mansoor match up.
Moorlach is at the end of his career with the County of Orange and is looking for a new public office to occupy.
John Moorlach detested the idea that Michelle Steel is going to succeed him. He is convinced that Michelle and her husband Shawn Steel were some how responsible for the defeat of his effort to extend supervisorial term limits to three consecutive 4-year terms.
Moorlach preferred to have someone like former Huntington Beach Councilman Don Hansen or Costa Mesa Mayor Jim Righeimer take over his seat.
Jim Righeimer decided against a run for supervisor due to unfinished business in Costa Mesa. Don Hansen is having second thought about this race, according to multiple sources.
So John Moorlach and company needed to find another candidate. They turned to Allan Mansoor.
They convinced Allan Mansoor that it is in his best interest to forgo a possible third term in the assembly to run against Michelle Steel.
Any political insider could have told Mansoor that the safer route to take is to run for re-election, then run for state senate in a special election from a safe seat.
But of course the people telling Mansoor to run for supervisor doesn’t exactly have his best interest at heart. They’re just looking for the strongest candidate they can find to run against Michelle Steel.
THE POSSIBLE BENEFICIARIES
If Allan Mansoor does indeed give up his Assembly seat to run for Supervisor, John Moorlach is going to walk right into the 74th Assembly District.
Assemblyman Don Wagner will have little problem succeeding Senator Mimi Walters to the upper chamber.
THE RISK FOR ALLAN MANSOOR
Between Don Wagner and Michelle Steel, I believe that the latter is a more formidable opponent. Taking on Don Wagner in a special election from a safe seat is the path with zero risk for Allan Mansoor.
Running against Michelle Steel in a regular primary and then general election will mean that Allan Mansoor will have to give up his third and final term in the Assembly. If Mansoor prevail in this match then life is great. However, should he come up short, unemployment at the beginning of 2015 is not pleasant for a former member of the Legislature.
Something for Assemblyman Mansoor to consider as he is about to start a family.