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1st District Special Election: Do Wins Ballot Order Lottery, Candidate Statements, & Who is Chuyen Van Nguyen?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 18, 2014

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

The Secretary of State conducted the ballot order lottery on Tuesday and transmitted the results to the Registrar of Voters, and Andrew Do was the big winner, so here’s how each candidate will appear on the January 27, 2015, ballot (assuming their designations aren’t challenged in court by December 26):

  • Andrew Do, Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner
  • Lou Correa, California State Senator
  • Chris Phan, Councilmember/Deputy DA
  • Chuyen Van Nguyen, Television News Anchor
  • Lupe Morfin-Moreno, Office Specialist

Most OC Political readers are familiar with Do, Correa, Phan, and even Morfin-Moreno, but most have expressed little knowledge of Nguyen.  To fill everyone in, let’s take a closer look at each candidate:

  • Andrew Do (R-Westminster), 51 years old

    Do is a partner in a law firm who was a deputy district attorney for eight years and who served as Chief of Staff to former Supervisor Janet Nguyen, who vacated this Supervisor’s seat to become a California State Senator. As an attorney, he has served as President of the Asian Bar Association of California and the Vietnamese-American Bar Association of Southern California.  He is a former adjunct professor at Cal State Fullerton and judge pro tem in the old Orange County Municipal Court.  Fleeing Vietnam as a child, Do grew up in the First Supervisorial District, attending Junior High and High School in Garden Grove.  He is a graduate of UC Davis and UC Hastings.

    Do was elected to the Garden Grove City Council in 2008 and served for three years. (He now lives in Westminster.)

    Do’s candidacy for Supervisor is endorsed by the Republican Party of Orange County, former Supervisors/current Senators Janet Nguyen and Pat Bates, Supervisor-Elect Michelle Steel, Congressmen Ed Royce and Dana Rohrabacher, Congresswoman-Elect Mimi Walters, and Assembly Members Young Kim, Travis Allen, Matt Harper, and Don Wagner.

  • Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), 56 years old (though he will turn 57 on January 24)

    Spending the majority of his career in elective office, Correa was an investment banker and real estate broker before entering the State Assembly.  He is a licensed attorney, though opted to go the banking and real estate route before entering politics.  A native Californian, Correa grew up in the Fourth Supervisorial District, attending K-12 in Anaheim.  He is a graduate of Cal State Fullerton and UCLA.

    After narrowly losing a 1996 Assembly bid by 93 votes, Correa became a State Assemblyman in 1998, termed out in 2004, and then held this same Supervisor’s seat from 2005-2006.  He resigned from the Board of Supervisors in 2006 to enter the State Senate, where he stayed until terming out last month.  His resignation from the Board caused a February 2007 special election, only the second special election for Supervisor in Orange County history.  Janet Nguyen won that special election to fill his old Supervisorial seat and now holds his old Senate seat.

    Correa’s candidacy for Supervisor is endorsed by the Democratic Party of Orange County, Sheriff-Coroner Sandra Hutchens, District Attorney-Public Administrator Tony Rackauckas, the Orange County Labor Federation (i.e. association of unions), the Orange County Employees Association (i.e. general public employee union), the Orange County Professional Firefighters Association (i.e. the fire union), and the Orange County Business Council.

  • Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), 40 years old (though he will turn 41 on January 14)

    Phan has been a deputy district attorney for two years.  He served on active duty in the United States Navy as a Judge Advocate General (anyone remember the TV show JAG?) from 2001-2008.  He was a JAG defense attorney from 2001-2003, JAG prosecutor from 2003-2005, and served generally as a JAG attorney from 2005-2008.  He is currently a lieutenant commander in the Navy reserve.  Fleeing Vietnam as a child, Phan grew up in Indiana and has lived in Orange County for six years.  He is a graduate of Indiana University and Southern Illinois University.

    Phan was elected to the Garden Grove City Council two years ago.  Ironically, Phan holds the exact same seat that Do held for three years.

  • Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), 65 years old

    Nguyen is currently an anchor on VNA-TV (Vietnam America Television), Channel 57.3.  He has previously been an aircraft parts manufacturing supervisor, marketing consultant, newspaper publisher (Tieng-Chuong), and staffer for former State Senator Joe Dunn (D-Santa Ana).  He was a pilot in the South Vietnamese Air Force from 1970-1975 and was a Lieutenant when Saigon fell.  Politically, he was active in various Vietnamese organizations in the early 1990s.  After fleeing Vietnam, Nguyen settled in Texas before eventually moving to Westminster.

    In 1998, Nguyen ran for Mayor of Westminster and came in fourth out of five candidates (Tony Lam won his third election to the City Council in that same election); Mayor Frank Fry was re-elected, beating Mayor Pro Tem Joy Neugebauer by 3.5%.  (He now lives in Garden Grove.)  Considering his poor finish in 1998 when he held greater name ID than he does now and considering he didn’t even have the $2500 to get a ballot statement, he is expected to only play spoiler in this election by splitting the Vietnamese vote.

  • Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana), 57 years old

    Morfin-Moreno is currently an office specialist with the Orange County Health Care Agency.  Politically, she is best known as an anti-illegal immigration activist and Minuteman.  A former Central Committee member, she lost her Central Committee bids in both 2010 and 2012 (Central Committee members who were elected in 2012 now serve four-year terms, rather than two-year terms due to change in the California Elections Code, so the next Central Committee election is in 2016).  A native Californian, Morfin-Moreno grew up in the First Supervisorial District, attending elementary, junior high, and high school in Santa Ana.

    Morfin-Moreno previously ran for Mayor of Santa Ana in 2012 (coming in fourth out of six candidates), this same Supervisor’s seat in the 2007 special election (coming in ninth out of ten candidates after dropping out of the race), the State Senate in 2006 (losing the primary to Lynn Daucher, who then loss the general election to Correa), the Santa Ana Unified School District in 2002 (missing a seat by 486 votes) and in 2000 (coming in seventh of nine candidates).

Do, Correa, and Phan got ballot statements while Nguyen and Morfin-Moreno did not.

Here’s Do’s statement (assuming it isn’t challenged in court by December 26):

At the urging of many Orange County leaders, I decided to run for County Supervisor. My experience includes:

Orange County Judge Pro Tem; Deputy District Attorney; City Councilman; Small Business Owner; Orange County Supervisor’s Chief of Staff.

As a Deputy District Attorney, I spent eight years fighting to make our community safe, prosecuting violent criminals and sex offenders.

As your Supervisor, I will fight hard for:

Local businesses and job creation, higher educational standards, health care programs, less waste in government, strong public safety, and anti-gang programs. I oppose tax increases.

Serving as Chief of Staff to California State Senator and Supervisor Janet Nguyen gives me valuable experience and an in-depth understanding of issues facing our area. Senator Nguyen urged
me to run for Supervisor.

I have deep family roots in central Orange County, having attended Jordan Jr. High, Bolsa Grande High School and Santa Ana College. I’m a graduate of the University of California, Hastings School of Law.

U.S Representatives Ed Royce and Mimi Walters, Senators Janet Nguyen and Pat Bates, Assembly members Young Kim and Matt Harper and Supervisor Michelle Steel have all endorsed me and I would be honored to receive your vote. Please visit www.AndrewDo2015.com. Thank you.

Here’s Correa’s statement (assuming it isn’t challenged in court by December 26):

It’s been an honor to work for you as your State Senator. Now, I respectfully ask for your support as your County Supervisor.

In the Legislature, my priorities have been jobs, public safety and public education. My work has earned me endorsements from respected leaders and organizations, including:

Sheriff Sandra Hutchens
District Attorney Tony Rackauckas
Orange County Professional Firefighters Association
Orange County Business Council

I helped cut taxes on small businesses and stopped unnecessary regulations. As a result of my work, I’ve been honored by the Orange County Taxpayers Association and named the California Small Business Association’s “Legislator of the Year.”

I’ve made our schools better and safer. I brought more education money and local control back to Orange County. I also co-wrote the new law to protect our children from heinous crimes. That’s why the California School Boards Association made me their “Legislator of the Year”.

It’s been an honor to represent you during these difficult economic times. Now, I’d like to bring my understanding of our communities to work for you as County Supervisor.

No one will work harder. I respectfully ask for your vote.

For more information please visit: www.loucorrea.com

Here’s Phan’s statement (assuming it isn’t challenged in court by December 26):

Embracing our diversity. Uniting our community. Serving our people!

As a former refugee, I am blessed to live the American Dream! I have served our country with honor and pride as a Navy officer for over 14 years. I am currently serving our community as an Orange County Deputy District Attorney and a Garden Grove City Councilmember. I humbly ask for your support to become your 1st
District Orange County Supervisor.

Military experience and public service taught me that our strength lies in our diversity. Orange County is truly a melting pot of culture, background, and ethnicity. As Supervisor, I will work hard to attract businesses to our District, increase employment, provide greater safety for our community, and protect our resources.

Over many months, I have walked and met many of our District’s residents. I have listened, learned, and shared many ideas with our residents so that I will be well-equipped and prepared to serve our County to the best of my ability.

Please learn about my candidacy at www.votechrisphan.com. I would be honored to have your vote and support. Together, we will ensure a brighter future for our County and forge a better tomorrow for our families. Thank you!

(Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: Senator Janet Nguyen and former candidate Chuyen Van Nguyen are not related to each other, and neither of them are related to me.  The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Live from OC GOP: Endorsement for 1st Supervisorial District

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 15, 2014

We’re live from a special meeting of the Republican Party of Orange County Central Committee to consider an endorsement for 1st District Supervisor.

Three new alternates are sworn in.

Chairman Scott Baugh notes Chris Phan’s Orange Juice Blog interview where Phan expressed opposition to the non-union pledge; Baugh notes that he rarely reads Orange Juice Blog but was told about that post. Baugh notes that Lou Correa coauthored the legislation that allowed 3% at 50 pension plans. Baugh warns that Correa will be a foothold for Nick Berardino and OCEA on the Board of Supervisors. Baugh notes many Vietnamese people are Buddhist and do not celebrate Christmas. Baugh recalls in 2007 that two Republican Vietnamese candidates came in the top two although Correa is stronger than Tom Umberg.

A Central Committee member asks Andrew Do about the economy and public safety.

Do says there are too many regulations and points to the examples of various permits and local ordinances. He says AB 109 and Prop 47 has a greater impact on the 1st District than other districts.

DO ENDORSED UNANIMOUSLY

Record time: 16 minutes to adjournment

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, Republican Central Committee, Uncategorized | Tagged: | 8 Comments »

First District Special Election Line-Up Set: Correa, Do, Morfin-Moreno, Nguyen, and Phan

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 15, 2014

We now know which candidates have qualified for the January 27 special election for 1st District Supervisor (and their ballot designations). In alphabetical order, they are:

*Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), California State Senator
*Andrew Do (R-Garden Grove), Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner
*Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana), Office Specialist
*Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor
*Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Councilmember/Deputy DA

At 6 PM, OC GOP will vote on whether to endorse Andrew Do.

At 7 PM, DPOC will vote on whether to endorse Lou Correa.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

1st Supervisorial District Candidate Filing Closes Today, Both Parties Consider Endorsement Tonight

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 15, 2014

Today’s an especially day for the First Supervisorial District special election:

  • 5 PM: Candidate filing closes at the Registrar of Voters
  • 6 PM: The Republican Party of Orange County will consider an endorsement of former Garden Grove Councilman Andrew Do (we’ll be live blogging from there)
  • 7 PM: The Democratic Party of Orange County will consider an endorsement of former State Senator Lou Correa

As of close of business Friday, eight candidates had pulled papers. One had completed them, and one had submitted nomination signatures:

  • Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), a Garden Grove Councilman since 2012 and Deputy District Attorney, completed his filing
  • Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), a retired aide to former State Senator Joe Dunn (D-Santa Ana), submitted his nomination signatures but had not completed filing yet

The remaining six had not yet completed filing by Friday but will presumably do so today:

  • Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), a former State Senator from 2006-2014, former County Supervisor from 2004-2006, and former State Assemblyman from 1998-2004
  • Andrew Do (R-Garden Grove), a former Garden Grove Councilman from 2008-2011, Chief of Staff to Supervisor Janet Nguyen, and attorney
  • Mark Lopez (R-Santa Ana), a 2014 candidate for Mayor of Santa Ana (he came in third out of three behind Mayor Miguel Pulido and Councilman Roman Reyna), entrepreneur, and soldier
  • Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana), a former Santa Ana Library Board Member, office specialist, and perennial candidate for office (2012: Santa Ana Mayor, 2007: First District Supervisor, 2006 Primary: State Senate)
  • Nam Pham (D-Santa Ana), a Santa Ana Library Board Member from 2002-2009, mathematician, and repeat candidate for office (2010: Santa Ana City Council, 2008: Rancho Santiago Community College District)
  • Steve Rocco (NPP-Santa Ana), a former Orange Unified School District Trustee from 2004-2008 and perennial candidate for office (2014: OUSD, 2012 General: Santa Ana Mayor, 2012 Primary: First District Supervisor, 2010 General: OUSD, 2010 Primary: Public Administrator, 2008: Santa Ana City Council, 2006: Rancho Santiago Community College District, etc.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Leave a Comment »

Costa Mesa Police Union Private Investigators Arrested for Tactics Used Targeting Righeimer/Mensinger

Posted by Scott Carpenter on December 11, 2014

The latest in the ongoing saga surrounding the Costa Mesa Police Union targeting Councilmembers Righeimer and Mensinger has resulted in the arrest and pending prosecution of the private investigators who conspired against the Councilmen. Today District Attorney Tony Rackauckas sent the following release announcing the criminal charges. Recent headlines have seen the union call Righeimer’s lawsuit against the firm “political” well now it appears their action were not only abusive but potentially criminal.

Date: December 11, 2014

TWO PRIVATE INVESTIGATORS WORKING FOR POLICE UNION LAW FIRM ARRESTED AND CHARGED WITH CONSPIRING TO COMMIT CRIMES AGAINST COSTA MESA COUNCILMEN AND AN ATTORNEY

SANTA ANA – Two private investigators working for a law firm retained by the Costa Mesa Police Officers’ Association (CMPOA) were arrested on charges of committing crimes against two Costa Mesa council members and a competitor attorney. Christopher Joseph Lanzillo, 45, Lake Arrowhead, and Scott Alan Impola, 46, Canyon Lake, are each charged with two felony counts of conspiracy to commit a crime of unlawful use of electronic tracking device, one felony count of false imprisonment by deceit, and one felony count of conspiracy to commit a crime of falsely reporting crime to agency. If convicted, Lanzillo and Impola face a maximum sentence of four years and four months in jail, as well as revocation of their private investigators’ licenses. They are each being held on $25,000 bail and are scheduled to be arraigned at a later date.

Background Information

At the time of the crimes, Lanzillo and Impola are accused of working as private investigators for the former Upland-based law firm of Lackie, Dammeier, McGill, and Ethir (LDME). CMPOA retained LDME to conduct “candidate research,” including surveillance on Costa Mesa city council members, in the months leading up to the November 2012 election.

On June 19, 2012, Lanzillo is accused of purchasing a GPS monitoring device using the alias of Robert Teller with Teller Investigations.

Victims

Councilman Stephen Mensinger

Between July 25, 2012, and Aug. 22, 2012, Lanzillo and Impola are accused of conspiring together to place a GPS tracking device on the vehicle of Costa Mesa City Councilman Stephen Mensinger without his knowledge or permission. Lanzillo and Impola are accused of using the GPS device to illegally track the location of Councilman Mensinger.

Councilman Jim Righeimer

On Aug. 22, 2012, Costa Mesa City Councilmen Jim Righeimer and Gary Monahan were at Councilman Monahan’s Skosh Monahan’s restaurant and bar in Costa Mesa. Impola is accused of conducting an operation searching for evidence to use against Councilman Monahan’s political career. Lanzillo is accused of arriving near the restaurant a short time later.

Impola and Lanzillo are accused of communicating with each other and LDME Managing Partner Dieter Dammeier by calling on their cell phones and through text messages. At approximately 5:45 p.m., Councilman Righeimer left the restaurant in his vehicle and drove home after he had consumed two non-alcoholic beverages.

Lanzillo is accused of calling 911 and falsely reporting that he observed a man stumble out of the location and into a vehicle that matched the description of Councilman Righeimer’s vehicle. Lanzillo is accused of falsely reporting that the vehicle was swerving on the road and that the driver may be under the influence of alcohol or disabled.

The Costa Mesa Police Department (CMPD) dispatched an officer to conduct an investigation. Councilman Righeimer was detained outside his home during this investigation for driving under the influence.

After administering a sobriety test and not observing any objective symptoms of intoxication, the officer determined that Councilman Righeimer was not under the influence and he was released. It was later determined that Councilman Righeimer did not stumble out of the bar and was not swerving when he drove.

Attorney

Between June 21, 2012, and July 12, 2012, Lanzillo and Impola are accused of conspiring together to place a GPS tracking device on the vehicle of an attorney at a law firm that was a competitor to the LDME firm without the victim’s knowledge or permission. Lanzillo and Impola are accused of using the GPS device to illegally track the location information of the victim.

CMPD provided reports and information to the Orange County District Attorney’s Office (OCDA). The OCDA conducted an extensive investigation into all matters surrounding this incident. The investigation is on-going.

Senior Deputy District Attorney Robert Mestman of the Special Prosecutions Unit is prosecuting this case.

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Posted in Costa Mesa | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

Closer Look at Measure J Results, as LA County Issues Notice of Recount

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 11, 2014

Fullerton activist Tony Bushala filed an official request for a recount on Measure J, the $574 million bond in the two-county North Orange County Community College District (NOCCCD).  As a college bond, Measure J requires 55% voter approval to pass.

The LA County Registrar of Voters posted their official notice of recount and an LA County recount costs a shocking $5,074.71-$21,158.49 per day. Orange County has a much more reasonable $600 per day.

NOCCCD has 16 precincts in LA County, where 3,947 votes were cast.  NOCCCD has 522 precincts in Orange County, where 150,171 votes were cast.

Much chatter has been on the recount starting in LA County, as LA County Registrar Dean Logan is believed to be more likely to have erroneous counts than the very competent Orange County Registrar Neal Kelley.  Indeed, the OC Registrar recount in the Garden Grove Mayor’s race was cancelled after one day because not a single ballot changed. (Dean Logan’s role in the 2004 Washington Governor’s race was particularly high profile, as the Republican Dino Rossi led for Governor of Washington in multiple recounts until Logan’s King County found a bunch of ballots for Democrat Christine Gregoire.  Logan left King County to become LA County’s Chief Deputy Registrar in 2006 and became LA County’s Registrar in 2008.)

La Habra Heights (LA County) and Yorba Linda (Orange County) are the strongholds of the “No” vote, where most voters opposed Measure J.  Orange County’s Stanton, Anaheim, Buena Park, Garden Grove, Los Alamitos, and La Habra are the strongholds of the “Yes” vote, as are the unincorporated areas of both counties; voters in these areas voted in favor of Measure J by margins exceeding 55%. OC’s Fullerton, Placentia, La Palma, Cypress, Brea, and unincorporated Rossmoor, along with LA County’s Whittier are the closer areas, where Measure J got over 50% but less than the 55% supermajority.

City/Community Yes No
La Mirada 1 100.00% 0 0.00%
Stanton 2265 65.94% 1170 34.06%
Orange 13 65.00% 7 35.00%
Anaheim 19645 60.51% 12821 39.49%
Buena Park 6942 59.06% 4813 40.94%
Garden Grove 2768 58.62% 1954 41.38%
Los Alamitos 1383 57.01% 1043 42.99%
Seal Beach 1287 55.40% 1036 44.60%
Unincorporated LA County 831 55.40% 669 44.60%
La Habra 2449 55.23% 1985 44.77%
Unincorporated OC (Excluding Rossmoor) 3698 55.11% 3012 44.89%
Fullerton 14308 54.74% 11829 45.26%
Placentia 5562 54.32% 4678 45.68%
La Palma 1819 53.63% 1573 46.37%
Cypress 5675 52.68% 5098 47.32%
Brea 4997 52.59% 4504 47.41%
Whittier 620 52.28% 566 47.72%
Rossmoor 1804 50.73% 1752 49.27%
La Habra Heights 577 45.79% 683 54.21%
Yorba Linda 8136 44.51% 10145 55.49%
TOTAL  84780 55.01% 69338 44.99%

Math should be a nonpartisan issue, so in the spirit of this, I’ll concur with Greg Diamond’s math that overturning Measure J requires tossing 34 “Yes” votes at Orange Juice Blog.

However, I understand why the OC Register states Measure J passed by 15 votes.  With 154,118 votes cast, 55% is 84,765 votes. Measure J got 15 votes more: 84,780.  That does not mean that 15 votes is how to defeat Measure J.

Somehow moving 16 votes from the Yes column to the No column would defeat Measure J.  However, that would be a tall order, as that would literally require the vote counting machines to have counted “No” votes as “Yes” votes 16 times.  That seems rather unlikely, with the increased accuracy of vote counting machines in recent years.

The more likely way to defeat Measure J in the recount would be for 34 “Yes” votes to be tossed, as Diamond’s math explains.  His math and mine agree, but here’s a table that presents it in a different method that may help those confused by Diamond’s description:

“Yes” Votes Tossed Yes No Total 55%
0 84780 55.0097976874862% 69338 44.9902023125138% 154118 84765
1 84779 55.0095057651005% 69338 44.9904942348995% 154117 84765
2 84778 55.0092138389265% 69338 44.9907861610735% 154116 84764
3 84777 55.0089219089641% 69338 44.9910780910359% 154115 84764
4 84776 55.0086299752132% 69338 44.9913700247868% 154114 84763
5 84775 55.0083380376737% 69338 44.9916619623263% 154113 84763
6 84774 55.0080460963455% 69338 44.9919539036545% 154112 84762
7 84773 55.0077541512287% 69338 44.9922458487713% 154111 84762
8 84772 55.0074622023230% 69338 44.9925377976770% 154110 84761
9 84771 55.0071702496285% 69338 44.9928297503715% 154109 84760
10 84770 55.0068782931451% 69338 44.9931217068549% 154108 84760
11 84769 55.0065863328726% 69338 44.9934136671274% 154107 84759
12 84768 55.0062943688111% 69338 44.9937056311889% 154106 84759
13 84767 55.0060024009604% 69338 44.9939975990396% 154105 84758
14 84766 55.0057104293205% 69338 44.9942895706795% 154104 84758
15 84765 55.0054184538912% 69338 44.9945815461088% 154103 84757
16 84764 55.0051264746726% 69338 44.9948735253274% 154102 84757
17 84763 55.0048344916646% 69338 44.9951655083354% 154101 84756
18 84762 55.0045425048670% 69338 44.9954574951330% 154100 84755
19 84761 55.0042505142798% 69338 44.9957494857202% 154099 84755
20 84760 55.0039585199029% 69338 44.9960414800971% 154098 84754
21 84759 55.0036665217363% 69338 44.9963334782637% 154097 84754
22 84758 55.0033745197799% 69338 44.9966254802201% 154096 84753
23 84757 55.0030825140336% 69338 44.9969174859664% 154095 84753
24 84756 55.0027905044973% 69338 44.9972094955027% 154094 84752
25 84755 55.0024984911709% 69338 44.9975015088291% 154093 84752
26 84754 55.0022064740545% 69338 44.9977935259455% 154092 84751
27 84753 55.0019144531478% 69338 44.9980855468522% 154091 84751
28 84752 55.0016224284509% 69338 44.9983775715491% 154090 84750
29 84751 55.0013303999637% 69338 44.9986696000363% 154089 84749
30 84750 55.0010383676860% 69338 44.9989616323140% 154088 84749
31 84749 55.0007463316179% 69338 44.9992536683821% 154087 84748
32 84748 55.0004542917591% 69338 44.9995457082409% 154086 84748
33 84747 55.0001622481098% 69338 44.9998377518902% 154085 84747
34 84746 54.9998702006698% 69338 45.0001297993302% 154084 84747

Posted in North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: | 10 Comments »

Assembly Member Wagner Announces Early Endorsements for State Senate Bid

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on December 9, 2014

This came over the wire from the Don Wagner for Senate campaign yesterday…

ASSEMBLY MEMBER WAGNER ANNOUNCES EARLY ENDORSEMENTS FOR STATE SENATE BID

Irvine – Assembly Member Donald P. Wagner announced an initial round of endorsements in his State Senate bid from many local and state leaders who have worked with him and with his opponent over the years.

Former Supervisors Pat Bates and Janet Nguyen, his new colleagues in the state legislature, have endorsed Assemblyman Wagner, as has Senate leader Bob Huff and the senator Wagner seeks to replace, Congresswoman-Elect Mimi Walters. Joining them in endorsing Wagner are Senator Joel Anderson from San Diego, Senator Mike Morrell from the Inland Empire, and Senator Jean Fuller from Bakersfield.

Local leaders have also enthusiastically endorsed Assemblyman Wagner’s run for State Senate, including Supervisor-elect Michelle Steel, OC Fire Authority Chairman and Tustin Mayor Al Murray, Orange County Transportation Authority incoming Board Chairman and Irvine Mayor Pro Tem Jeffrey Lalloway, and Board of Equalization Member-elect and former Orange County Assemblywoman Diane Harkey.

In the Assembly, Wagner has the overwhelming support of his colleagues, including Republican Leader Kristin Olsen and former Republican leaders Martin Garrick and Connie Conway. Finally, he is also endorsed by, among others, Assembly Members Brian Jones, Shannon Grove, Beth Gaines, Frank Bigelow, Jim Patterson, and Brian Dahle.

More state and local endorsements will be announced shortly.

If you would like to join the Wagner for Senate campaign or receive regular progress updates, please visit the website at wagner4senate.com or contact the Wagner for Senate campaign office at 714.514.1888.

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

1st Supervisorial District: New Year’s Eve Absentees, Christmas Campaign

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 3, 2014

The 1st Supervisorial District special election has been set for Tuesday, January 27, 2015 to fill the vacancy that resulted when Supervisor Janet Nguyen was elected to the 34th Senate District.

In the last special election for the 1st Supervisorial District in February 2007, 77% of votes cast were by absentee ballots.  In the November 2006 general election three months prior, 48% of votes were cast by absentee ballots.  In the November 2014 general election, 61% of votes were cast by absentee ballot.

With the continuing trend of increasing use of absentee ballots in general elections, there is no doubt that special elections will be even more heavily dominated by absentee ballots, so this January 2015 special election should see well over 80% of its votes cast by absentee ballot and could well hit 90%.

Permanent absentee ballots are mailed 29 days before each election.  Well, 29 days before January 27, 2015 is December 29, 2014.  In other words, voters in this election will begin receiving their absentee ballots on December 30 – the day before New Year’s Eve.

Candidacy papers are currently available and are due by December 15.  Sample ballots cannot be printed until all candidates have filed their candidacy paperwork, so voters will be receiving their Christmas cards alongside their sample ballots.

That of course leaves the fun of when campaign mailers start arriving.  In fact, the first mailers should be arriving any day now.  Any candidate intending to send negative mail will need to do so before absentee ballots arrive, but Christmas is the Thursday before absentee ballots arrive.  Nothing brings Christmas joy to voters like a hit piece, so this may have to stay an unusually positive campaign. Otherwise, somebody’s going to endure the unusual risk of launching a Christmas attack mailer.

Former Senator/Supervisor Lou Correa, Garden Grove Councilman Chris Phan, former Garden Grove Councilman Andrew Do, and whoever else jumps into the 1st Supervisorial District race will have to utilize out-of-the-box campaign strategies to deal with this holiday-laden election schedule.

Some good news for Phan and Do: this election will not collide with the Vietnamese New Year, as Tet is not until February.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Anaheim: Vanderbilt Won the Hills, Murray & Eastman Won the Flatlands

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 2, 2014

Virtually every political analysis of the City of Anaheim references the split between Anaheim Hills and the Flatlands.

A closer look at the 2014 election results confirms that split – but in counterintuitive fashion.  Mayor Tom Tait won 61.7% of the Anaheim Hills vote in his re-election bid but less than half the vote in the Flatlands, though even then, this is a 42.5% victory margin for Tait in Anaheim Hills versus 24.1% in the Flatlands. Lucille Kring beat Lorri Galloway by 6.4% in Anaheim Hills, but Galloway beat Kring by 5.1% in the Flatlands.

In fairness to Kring, she scored fairly consistently across the city with only a 0.3% differential in Hills versus Flatlands. The big difference was for Galloway whose Flatland votes were nearly double the percentage of her votes in the Hills, with 24.6% in the Flatlands versus 12.8% in the Hills.

More intuitively, three of the candidates did better where they live than the other part of town: Kring and Fitzgerald did better on their home turf in the Flatlands while Tait did better in the Hills, where he lives. It looks like Galloway’s neighbors don’t like her, as she is an Anaheim Hills resident but did far better in the Flatlands than the Hills.

Anaheim Hills
Tom Tait 9945 61.7%
Lucille Kring 3093 19.2%
Lorri Galloway 2071 12.8%
Denis Fitzgerald 1018 6.3%

 

Flatlands
Tom Tait 14171 48.7%
Lorri Galloway 7164 24.6%
Lucille Kring 5664 19.5%
Denis Fitzgerald 2072 7.1%

 

Anaheim Hills vs. Flatlands
Tom Tait +13.0%
Lorri Galloway -11.8%
Lucille Kring -0.3%
Denis Fitzgerald -0.8%

Flatlander James Vanderbilt was the top vote-getter for City Council in Anaheim Hills; he came in third in the Flatlands behind Hills resident Kris Murray and Flatlander Gail Eastman. The first through third place spread of Murray, Eastman, and Vanderbilt was 2% in the Hills and 1.1% in the Flatlands.  Nevertheless, Vanderbilt beat Eastman in Anaheim Hills by 333 votes while Eastman beat Vanderbilt in the Flatlands by 130 votes, thereby giving Vanderbilt his 203-vote citywide victory.

Anaheim Hills
James D. Vanderbilt 3719 22.8%
Kris Murray 3674 22.6%
Gail Eastman 3386 20.8%
Doug Pettibone 1810 11.1%
Jose F. Moreno (1) 1492 9.2%
Jerry O’Keefe 1399 8.6%
Donna Michelle Acevedo 502 3.1%
Jose Moreno (2) 303 1.9%

 

Flatlands
Kris Murray 12533 20.2%
Gail Eastman 11952 19.3%
James D. Vanderbilt 11822 19.1%
Jose F. Moreno (1) 10029 16.2%
Doug Pettibone 5499 8.9%
Jerry O’Keefe 4845 7.8%
Donna Michelle Acevedo 2686 4.3%
Jose Moreno (2) 2673 4.3%

 

Anaheim Hills vs. Flatlands
James D. Vanderbilt +3.7%
Kris Murray +2.4%
Gail Eastman +1.5%
Jose F. Moreno (1) -7.0%
Doug Pettibone +2.2%
Jerry O’Keefe +0.8%
Donna Michelle Acevedo -1.2%
Jose Moreno (2) -2.4%

The number that jumps out is Jose F. Moreno’s 7% gap in the Hills.  (Either way, though, Moreno fell 3% short of the top two slots in both the Hills and the Flatlands.)  While at first, some might instinctively claim race as the reason for his 7% drop in the Hills, but before the polls closed, Matt Cunningham at Anaheim Blog found a more innocuous reason: the old-fashioned hard work of campaigning.  The title of Cunningham’s blog and the photo he showed from Moreno’s campaign office explain it all, so here they are: “Jose Moreno Campaign Ignoring Anaheim Hills

In this photo, the Moreno campaign’s office door literally shut out Anaheim Hills.

 

Anaheim Hills defeated Measure N, the obscure local services measure. The Flatlands voted in favor of Measure N 53%-47%. The Hills voted against Measure N 56%-44%.

Measure N
Anaheim Hills Flatlands
Yes 6635 44% 14778 53%
No 8452 56% 13083 47%

Measure L, the vote-by-district measure, won by an unexpectedly large margin. It was widely expected that the measure would have a tough time in Anaheim Hills. It did not, but Anaheim Hills did support it by a weaker margin than the Flatlands did, so in the Anaheim split did go with expectations, rather than against them, but simply in a negligible percentage. Measure L won 64% of Anaheim Hills votes while it won 72% in the Flatlands.

Measure L
Anaheim Hills Flatlands
Yes 10213 64% 20660 72%
No 5750 36% 8231 28%

Measure M, the measure to grow the City Council by two seats, won in unexpectedly close fashion. In the Flatlands, it won 56% of the vote while in Anaheim Hills, it won with a much closer 51% of the vote.

Measure M
Anaheim Hills Flatlands
Yes 7836 51% 15916 56%
No 7652 49% 12451 44%

Posted in Anaheim | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

New State Legislators Sworn in Today

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 1, 2014

California State CapitolIt’s the first Monday in December of an even year, so California’s new and re-elected state legislators will be sworn in today at 12:00 PM.  27 of 80 Assembly Members (33.75%) and 10 of 40 Senators (25%) will be freshmen.

Republicans picked up enough seats to break the Democratic supermajorities in both houses.

Orange County’s delegation will have proportionally even more freshmen, with 4 out of 7 Assembly Members (57.14%) and 3 of 5 Senators (60%) holding their first terms in their respective houses.

While the new Senators already have their official web sites up, the new Assembly Members do not, presumably waiting for the swearing-in at 12:00 PM.

As of 12:00 PM, Orange County’s Assembly delegation will consist of:

  • Ling-Ling Chang (R-Diamond Bar), 55th District (far northern Orange County, southeastern LA County, and Chino Hills) – First Term
  • Young Kim (R-Fullerton), 65th District (northwestern Orange County) – First Term
  • Don Wagner (R-Irvine), 68th District (eastern Orange County) – Third Term
  • Tom Daly (D-Anaheim), 69th District (central Orange County) – Second Term
  • Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach), 72nd District (Orange County’s northern coast and Little Saigon) – Second Term
  • Bill Brough (R-Dana Point), 73rd District (southern Orange County) – First Term
  • Matt Harper (R-Huntington Beach), 74th District (Orange County’s central coast) – First Term

As of 12:00 PM, Orange County’s Senate delegation will consist of:

  • Bob Huff (R-Diamond Bar), 29th District (northern Orange County, southeastern LA County, and Chino Hills) – Midway Through Second Term
  • Tony Mendoza (D-Artesia), 30th District (Buena Park and portions of LA County)
  • Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove), 34th District (central Orange County and portions of Long Beach) – First Term
  • Patricia Bates (R-Laguna Niguel), 36th District (southern Orange County and northern San Diego County) – First Term
  • Mimi Walters (R-Irvine), 37th District (eastern Orange County) – Midway Through Second Term

Walters is still a State Senator, as she will not be sworn into the United States Congress until January.

Posted in 29th Senate District, 30th Senate District, 34th Senate District, 36th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, State Assembly, State Senate | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

 
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