OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

  • Custom Campaigns

    Custom Campaigns
  • DMI

  • Allen for Assembly

  • Posey for Huntington Beach

  • Lalloway for Irvine

  • Sachs for Mission Viejo

  • Huang for Yorba Linda

  • Glasky for IUSD

  • Lee for CSD

  • Contact Us to Purchase an Ad

  • Lincoln Club of Orange County

  • I Voted

    I Voted

Did the Court of Appeal Put A Crimp In Governor Brown’s Drought Plans?

Posted by Greg Woodard on April 22, 2015

Everyone knows California is in a long-term drought.  And most of you on here know that Governor Brown recently issued an executive order requiring Californians to reduce their water use, and water agencies are tackling the task of making that happen.

Many water suppliers either currently have, or are planning on implementing, tiered rates to deal with the water usage cuts.  However, the Court of Appeal out of Santa Ana just issued a decision that could complicate matters, and may have far-reaching implications on any future use of tiered water rates.

In 2011, the city of San Juan Capistrano adopted a new water rate structure that created four tiered water rates, with substantially higher rates as the water use increases.  The Capistrano Taxpayers Association (CTA) filed a lawsuit challenging the tiered rates as violating Proposition 218’s limit on fees that a government agency can charge for services.

The trial court agreed with the CTA and held that the rates were not compliant with Proposition 218.

The Court of Appeal agreed and upheld the trial court’s ruling.  The Court of Appeal held that Proposition 218 requires water agencies to justify their tiered rates based on the costs of service for those tiers.  Agencies cannot use legislative, discretionary power to attribute percentages of total costs to the various tiers.  In addition, the agencies must have evidence to back up their claims that the rates are tied to the costs of service.

So what does that mean for the future of tiered rates?  The Court of Appeal specifically stated that tiered rates are not prohibited by Proposition 218. However, if agencies choose to institute tiered rates, they have to do so based on the actual costs of service for those tiers.  That means that agencies cannot implement tiered rates as a penalty.

 

 

Posted in San Juan Capistrano | Leave a Comment »

Taxes Due Today, But California’s Tax Freedom Day Isn’t Until May 3

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 15, 2015

Tax Freedom Day in Each State – California is 47th Latest on May 3 (Graphic Courtesy of the Tax Foundation)

So if you’re like me, you’ll be finishing filing your income taxes sometime tonight.  I’m glad e-file has existed since I started filing income taxes.  It’d probably be a disaster driving to one of those postmarking-until-midnight Post Offices if I had to mail in my income taxes.

In fact, there’s only one Post Office in all of Orange County that will still be postmarking mail until midnight tonight: 3101 Sunflower Ave. in Santa Ana (the retail portion closes at 7:00 PM, but they’re still postmarking mail received by midnight). For those in northwestern Orange County, you can drive into LA County before 10:00 PM because the Post Office at 2300 Redondo Blvd. in Long Beach will be postmarking mail until then.

While today is the day we literally pay our income taxes, the figurative day in which we finish paying our taxes is still nine days away nationally and eighteen days away for California.

The Tax Foundation annually calculates Tax Freedom Day, which is the day in which people have earned enough money to pay all their taxes (income, payroll, sales, property, etc.) for the year, assuming no change in income level during the course of the year.  Any income earned after Tax Freedom Day will belong to the taxpayer (again assuming no change in income level during the course of the year).

National Tax Freedom Day for 2015 is April 24, though Tax Freedom Day varies by state.

The earliest Tax Freedom Day is in Louisiana on April 2, followed by Mississippi (April 4), South Dakota (April 8), and Tennessee and Alabama (both April 9).

The latest Tax Freedom Day is in Connecticut and New Jersey (both on May 13), New York (May 8), California (May 3), and Massachusetts (May 2).

That’s right: not only is California 47th in the nation, we’re also worse than Taxachusetts.

To look at this another way, the average Louisianan celebrates Tax Freedom Day on April 2, which is 92 days into the year, or 25.2% of the way into the year.  In other words, the average Louisianan pays 25.2% of their annual income in taxes.

The average Californian celebrates Tax Freedom Day on May 3, which is 123 days into the year, or 33.7% of the way into the year.  In other words, the average Californian pays 33.7% of their annual income in taxes, 8.5% more than the average Louisianan.

All of California’s neighbors celebrate Tax Freedom Day before California does: Arizona celebrates it today (17th in the country), Nevada on April 20 (26th in the country), and Oregon on April 22 (33rd in the country).

Posted in California, U.S. Politics | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Judge M. Marc Kelly – Let the Voters Render Their Verdict!

Posted by Craig P. Alexander on April 12, 2015

In California State Court trial judges must stand for election every six years. Whenever judges appear on the ballot I have a vast number of friends ask me which judges to vote for and which judges to vote against. Even lawyers like myself don’t always know a judge’s record on the trial court bench since their decisions are not often printed in the newspaper or on legal search engines like Lexus or West Law.  Thus it makes it hard to evaluate if the judge’s record is good or not.

I am much more likely to give a judge my vote on re-election even if I don’t agree with all of their decisions.  Being a judge is not an easy task and they work very hard to be fair to all sides in the cases before them.  They also have to handle far more cases than each of them should have too due to severe budget constraints imposed by Sacramento and limits on the number of judicial appointments which often lag far, far behind the actual need.  Plus keep in mind that the reason a case is in front of the judge in the first place is at least two parties are in disagreement and the judge (and often a jury) is called upon to decide between them.  That often means someone is a winner and the other party is the loser.  This is the judge’s job: to preside over a conflicted situation that he or she did not create.  But it is their job to make the tough decisions each day.  For these reasons I admire judges for the often difficult work they do.

However there are exceptions to this general rule and the recent sentencing of a confessed child rapist by Judge M. Marc Kelly is one of those examples.  I do not know if Judge Kelly found the rapist guilty of his crime, if a jury did that or if the rapist confessed and plead guilty, but it is the judge who decides the sentence for the convicted criminal to serve.  It is the sentence, handed down by Judge Kelly, of this rapist of a three year old to only 10 years in prison rather than 25 years to life that shocks people in our community (and apparently the nation).

The Orange County Register has been following this situation and has published its own editorial calling for Judge Kelly to resign or be recalled. Here is the link to that editorial: Time to Leave the Bench.  This follows Supervisors Todd Spitzer, Lisa Bartlett and Shawn Nelson calling on the judge to resign or be recalled.

I think the Supervisors are right to call for a recall for this simple reason:  Rather than wait until Judge Kelly would normally stand for re-election, let him now, while the issue is very much before the people via the news media, explain to the voters who are tasked with electing or re-electing him, why this sentence was legal and proper.  Then let the voters render their verdict!

Posted in Orange County Board of Supervisors, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , | 8 Comments »

SD-37 Shocker: Naz Namazi Won a Precinct

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 25, 2015

Naz Namazi Won a Precinct!While reviewing the 37th Senate District special election results for my post Monday breaking down who won which areas of SD-37, I was shocked to see that Naz Namazi won a precinct.

Special Election Precinct 71903, known as Precinct 71362 in regular elections, consists of 15 registered voters in 11 homes (actually, they’re in 10 homes, as the residents of one of the homes in the precinct are not registered to vote) on the 13000 and 13100 blocks of Marshall Lane in the City of Tustin.  There are 9 Republicans (60%), 3 NPPs (20%), 2 Democrats (13%), and 1 AIP (7%).

Of those 15 voters, 4 turned out to vote (27%), so Precinct 71903 had the 11th-highest voter turnout percentage of the 248 precincts in SD-37 for this special election.

Of the 4 voters, a stunning 2 voted for Naz Namazi, 1 voted for Don Wagner, and the fourth registered as an undervote.  Neither John Moorlach nor Louise Stewardson won any votes in this precinct.

Perhaps they found Namazi’s robocall to be persuasive.  As readers may recall from my earlier post on the robocall, the robocall said:

I’m Naz, N-A-Z, Naz, and I’m running against two men: a liar and a hypocrite.

I am a legal immigrant who’s lived in Orange County for 33 years and graduated from UC Irvine.

I’m Naz, and of course, I approved this message. VoteNaz.org. Vote honesty. Vote Naz.

They are one of only two precincts that overlap the City of Tustin and the Orange Unified School District.  What makes them different from that other Tustin-OUSD precinct is they are part of the East Orange County Water District; the other one is not.

In the 2012 presidential election, this precinct voted 6-3 for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama.  They cast no votes for third party candidates.

In the 2014 elections, this precinct voted 9-1 for the Republican candidate for Governor, Secretary of State, State Controller, State Treasurer, Attorney General, Insurance Commissioner, and the 45th Congressional District.

1 voter diverged, weakening the Republican vote down to 8-2 for the Republican for Lieutenant Governor and the 68th Assembly District.

5 voted for Kevin Haskins for Superior Court Judge while 2 voted for KC Jones.

5 voted for Tom Torlakson for Superintendent of Public Instruction while 3 voted for Marshall Tuck.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , | 2 Comments »

A Closer Look at SD-37: Newport-Mesa Delivered Nearly All of Moorlach’s Margin of Victory Over Wagner

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 23, 2015

The Registrar of Voters certified the 37th Senate District Special Election on Friday night, John Moorlach took the oath of office yesterday afternoon, and he will be on the Senate Floor at his desk for the first time at 2:00 PM today while Don Wagner will be back on the Assembly Floor at 12:00 PM today.

We’ve all seen the official results districtwide, with Moorlach avoiding a runoff by 199 votes:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 38,125 50.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 33,411 44.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,621 3.5%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,696 2.2%

 

Besides both being conservative Republican legislators from Orange County, there’s something else Moorlach and Wagner have in common: their most recent constituents like them.  In the 37th Senate District special election, Moorlach won the 2nd Supervisorial District while Wagner won the 68th Assembly District.  Turnout in the 2nd Supervisorial District was 16.8% while turnout in the 68th Assembly District was 15.0%.

Winner by City in the 37th Senate District Special Election

Winner by city or unincorporated area in the 37th Senate District Special Election.  (Note: the sizes of their heads have nothing to do with their vote margin in that community, it’s just the geographic size of the community that did it.  Laguna Woods and Laguna Beach are very oddly-shaped cities.)

The 68th, the 2nd, and Neutral Territory

In the 68th Assembly District (Anaheim Hills, Lake Forest, Orange, Tustin, Villa Park, and the northeastern 1/3 of Irvine), Wagner defeated Moorlach by almost the identical percentage (5.3%) that Moorlach beat Wagner overall in the 37th Senate District (6.3%).  (For those who care to an incredible level of detail, the charts are near the bottom of this post.)

In the 2nd Supervisorial District (Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, and Newport Beach), Moorlach beat Wagner by a whopping 20.6%.

In the neutral territory outside the 68th and the 2nd (Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, and the southwestern 2/3 of Irvine), Wagner defeated Moorlach by a large 18.5% margin.  (To add insult to injury for Naz Namazi, write-in candidate Louise Stewardson beat her in these areas.)  In a testament to how fed up voters were with negative campaigning, it was in these areas where Stewardson and Namazi did the best, getting a combined 8.9% here as opposed to 5.4% in the 2nd and 4.5% in the 68th since there was no “favorite son” candidate in these areas.

Moorlach’s Newport Beach-Costa Mesa Landslide

Moorlach’s margin of victory in his hometown of Costa Mesa was a whopping 25.4% (1,712 votes) and in Newport Beach, it was an even larger 27.9% (2,996 votes).

Costa Mesa and Newport Beach combined to give Moorlach 4,708 more votes than Wagner.  Districtwide, Moorlach defeated Wagner by 4,714 votes.  In other words, without Costa Mesa and Newport Beach, Moorlach would have been ahead of Wagner by just 6 votes, and obviously, there would have been a run-off.

Moorlach also held on to the other 2nd District city, Huntington Beach, by a margin of 7.3% (599 votes).

Moorlach Won Portions of the 68th While Holding All of the 2nd

There were three critical areas where Moorlach broke into Wagner’s home turf: Anaheim Hills, Villa Park, and Silverado.  Had Wagner been able to stop the Moorlach incursion into those three areas of the 68th Assembly District, there would have been a run-off.

The Anaheim Hills votes are interesting in that Moorlach beat Wagner by 76 votes in Anaheim Hills overall, but Wagner beat Moorlach by 7 votes in the 39th Congressional District.  The only portions of the 39th Congressional District that overlap with SD-37 are in Anaheim Hills.  Anaheim Mayor Tom Tait endorsed Moorlach and did a robocall for him.  Congressman Ed Royce endorsed Wagner, did a robocall for him, and was listed on Wagner’s mail as an endorser.

It appears Tait managed to push Anaheim Hills out of the 68th District’s generally pro-Wagner voting pattern, but Royce was able to push his Congressional District back into Wagner’s column.  This war of endorsements from popular elected officials and of campaign mail probably explains why Anaheim Hills was the closest city in the entire district.  (We can rule out most precinct walking operations since the “Hills” name is very, very apt compared to the rest of the relatively flat SD-37.)

Moorlach was endorsed in Villa Park by Mayor Rick Barnett, Councilman Bill Nelson, Councilman Robert Collacott, and former Councilwoman Deborah Pauly.  Wagner was endorsed in Villa Park by Councilman Greg Mills and Councilwoman Diana Fascinelli.  Pauly ran Moorlach’s ground operations, which caused Villa Park to buck the trend of the 68th District backing Wagner.

I have no explanation for Silverado.

Moorlach Won the Liberal Pockets of SD-37

In spite of all the union independent expenditures against Moorlach and/or for Wagner, Moorlach actually won the liberal City of Laguna Beach and the flag-banning precincts of UC Irvine.

Tables Galore

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
68th Assembly District Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 17,213 50.4%
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 15,418 45.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 1,192 3.5%
Louise Stewardson (W) 360 1.0%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
2nd Supervisorial District Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 15,633 57.6%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 10,030 37.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 815 3.0%
Louise Stewardson (W) 651 2.4%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Excluding 68th Assembly District and 2nd Supervisorial District Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 7,963 54.8%
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 5,279 36.3%
Louise Stewardson (W) 685 4.7%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 614 4.2%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Costa Mesa Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 3,979 59.1%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 2,267 33.7%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 254 3.8%
Louise Stewardson (W) 234 3.5%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Newport Beach Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 6,651 61.9%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 3,655 34.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 263 2.4%
Louise Stewardson (W) 177 1.7%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Excluding Costa Mesa and Newport Beach Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 27,495 47.1%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 27,489 47.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,104 3.6%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,285 2.2%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Huntington Beach Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 4,188 50.6%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 3,589 43.3%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 264 3.2%
Louise Stewardson (W) 240 2.9%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Anaheim Hills Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 2,579 48.4%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 2,503 46.9%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 205 3.8%
Louise Stewardson (W) 46 0.9%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Villa Park Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 651 60.8%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 396 37.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 23 2.2%
Louise Stewardson (W) 0 0.0%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Silverado Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 35 58.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 21 35.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 3 5.0%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1 1.7%

 

Random Trivia Not Worth a Separate Post

For anybody wondering, Moorlach will be seated in the front row on the Senate Floor and will be seatmates with Cathleen Galgiani (D-Stockton).  Moorlach will be one of only two Republicans with a Democrat as a seatmate: the other bipartisan pair of seatmates are Anthony Cannella (R-Ceres) and Jerry Hill (D-San Mateo).  Moorlach will be diagonally seated from his old colleague of eight years on the Board of Supervisors, Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove), whose seatmate is their eight-year colleague on the Board of Supervisors, Patricia Bates (R-Laguna Niguel).

Moorlach Seat in the Senate

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, 68th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 14 Comments »

Post-Election Comments on the Moorlach vs. Wagner Special Election

Posted by Walter Myers III on March 20, 2015

Dalai Lama XIVWell, it looks like it is almost official according to my distinguished colleagues here at OC Political who have been watching intently and reporting on the vote count. John Moorlach will most certainly avoid a run-off and stands to take the oath this Sunday as the newly elected California State Senator from the 37th District. Moorlach ran a positive campaign, according himself with honor and gravitas against withering attacks from Don Wagner (and yes, he did get a little negative towards the end because he was provoked). Wagner was negative out of the gate, and only became more negative as the campaign progressed. His tactics were, in retrospect, clearly unsuccessful as he lost by a 6 point margin. I think both he and his campaign advisers should reflect on their behavior, and hope they will see the Moorlach win was as much about positive feelings for Moorlach’s forthright style and outstanding accomplishments as it was about Wagner displaying petulant behavior unbecoming of someone who claims to carry the conservative banner.

In comments on my last blog, I was taken to task for being naive and not understanding how campaigning is a down and dirty, nasty business. A blood sport, certainly. I have been involved in politics as a conservative activist for over ten years now, working in numerous political action committees to financially support and promote candidates, so I’m hardly naive. I know exactly how campaigns go, and I have no problem with a candidate “digging up dirt” on an opponent, exposing all of their failings and foibles without getting personal (unless their personal behavior demonstrates a serious character flaw). We’re all human and fallible, so you can find something negative about any human being. But there is a definite line that is crossed when candidates make charges that are outright false because they know people won’t bother to check the facts, or so twist the facts it’s hard to determine what is true and what isn’t. Wagner did this on a number of occasions, but it was ineffective because many of those who vote in the 37th District are politically active, discerning, and have seen Moorlach’s sterling record for themselves over the past twenty years. So they were not going to be fooled. Whereas before the election, you would find few who didn’t have a favorable disposition towards Wagner, afterwards there was an increasing number who saw a side of Wagner they never expected, and were naturally disappointed. Had Wagner simply elected to run on his great record, providing truthful, reasonable criticisms of Moorlach, he could have possibly prevailed.

Now the problem with Wagner’s approach to this campaign, and some of the other “dirty” campaigns I have seen over the years, is that some feel when it comes to campaigning, the conservative principles and values they say they espouse no longer apply. You do whatever it takes to win, and then when you’re done we’re all friends again. It reminds me of the Ethan Hawke movie The Purge. In this future, dystopian, totalitarian world, one night a year is designated “The Purge” where all crime is legal from 7 p.m. at night to 7 a.m. the next morning. Ostensibly, the purge results in a strong economy with low crime and unemployment due to its cathartic effect, but in reality it’s just a mechanism for artificial population control. The family of the character played by Hawke is under murderous attack by their next door neighbors, who are unsuccessful at killing his family but attempt to revert back to the way things were when the clock strikes 7 a.m. Clearly, we’re not that far along as a society, but I think you get the point. Things don’t necessarily go back to the way they were because for a time the rules of decorum, honesty, and civility are temporarily lifted.

What I am arguing is simply that if you are a conservative who says you sincerely believe in God, love, mercy, brotherhood, and objective truth, except these have no place when it comes to campaigning, then more than likely much of the real person is who we see in the campaign. When the pressure is on and there is something significant to be lost or gained, that’s when we see who you truly are, not when you’re out giving a speech, participating in a community event, or raising money. What we want be assured of is that the things of which you do and speak come from your very soul, and that we see them consistently displayed, especially in the heat of political battle. It is not my expectation that this little post will have a significant impact on campaigns moving forward, but I do hope it will cause candidates to give a little pause before they compromise their core principles or allow others to influence them to do so. And thus, I will close with a quote by the Dalai Lama XIV: “Judge your success by what you had to give up in order to get it.”

Posted in 37th Senate District | 23 Comments »

No Run-Off, Swearing-In Scheduled: Senator-Elect Moorlach’s Lead Shrinks by Another 25 Votes, But Registrar Virtually Done Counting

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 20, 2015

California State Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

California State Senator-Elect
John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

The sixth results (yesterday’s count) are in, and the Registrar of Voters actually finished counting all ballots in their possession.  The only remaining ballots are SB 29 ballots that will arrive in the mail today.

2,672 SB 29 ballots were counted, with 2,440 of those arriving on Wednesday and 232 arriving yesterday.  Only a tiny number of SB 29 ballots are expected to arrive today.

This sixth update has the penultimate results, as the seventh update tonight will be the final numbers from the Registrar of Voters:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 38,111 50.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 33,403 44.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,619 3.5%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,695 2.2%

 

Moorlach gained 1,718 votes, Wagner 1,533, Namazi 129, and Stewardson 106.  In other words, Moorlach gained 1,718 of the newly-counted votes (49.3%) while the rest of the field gained 1,768 of the newly-counted votes (50.7%).

Moorlach was ahead of 50% by 247 votes for the last Election Night count, which shrunk by 25 down to 222 votes after Wednesday’s count, and that lead shrunk by another 25 votes, still leaving Moorlach 197 votes above the 50% mark.  I project that the remaining SB 29 ballots left are far, far fewer than 197; I’ll go out on a limb and say there’s probably less than 10 of those ballots out there.

Based on the Election Night returns and trends, OC Political was the first place to call the election in print when we did so on Election Night at 10:31 PM, and we stood by the call even as a number of other places said late ballots would trend away from Moorlach.

Senator Sharon Runner was sworn in yesterday in the State Capitol after winning the SD-21 special election, which was held the same day as the SD-37 special election.  Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff had invited Senator-Elect John Moorlach to be sworn in on the same day, but Moorlach opted to wait and will also take the oath of office in the district.  He plans to be sworn in on Sunday at 4:00 PM in the Chapel at the Orange County Rescue Mission’s Village of Hope at 1 Hope Drive in Tustin.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Senator-Elect Moorlach’s Lead Shrinks by Insignificant 25 Votes – There Will Be No Run-Off

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 19, 2015

Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach
(R-Costa Mesa)

The Registrar of Voters has counted nearly all non-SB 29 ballots.  450 absentee ballots that arrived in the mail on Election Day have been counted, leaving only 100 left.  3,860 absentee ballots dropped off at the polls have been counted, leaving only 96 left.  All 181 Election Day paper ballots cast at the polls have been counted.  The 788 provisional ballots are still out there, so 4,481 ballots were counted in the fifth set of results, and only 984 of the non-SB 29 ballots remain.  2,440 SB 29 ballots arrived yesterday, and while there are still some SB 29 ballots that will arrive today and tomorrow, those will be fewer in number than 2,440.

The fifth results (yesterday’s count) show:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 36,393 50.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 31,870 44.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,490 3.4%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,589 2.2%

 

In the fifth results, Moorlach gained 2,185 votes, Wagner 1,883, Namazi 131, and Stewardson 221.  Looked at another way, Moorlach gained 2,185 votes (49.4%) while the other three won 2,235 (50.6%).  (61 undervotes/overvotes were counted yesterday, but they don’t count toward the total since they didn’t cast a valid vote.)

In the fourth results (final Election Night count), Moorlach was averting a run-off by 247 votes.  In the fifth results (yesterday’s count), Moorlach is averting a run-off by 222 votes.

So after counting 4,481 ballots yesterday, with 3,424 left, plus the small number of SB 29 ballots that will arrive today and tomorrow, it would take an unusual reversal of fortune for Moorlach for a run-off to occur.  In every iteration of ballot counts, Moorlach has dropped no lower than 49%.  For a run-off to occur, he’d have to drop to 44% or less in the remaining ballots – that’s not going to happen.

OC Political stands by our Election Night projection that there will be no run-off and John Moorlach will succeed Mimi Walters as State Senator for the 37th District.

With Moorlach’s victory, it appears the road to the California State Senate from Orange County runs through the Hall of Administration.  When was the last time an Orange County Supervisor lost a bid for the California State Senate? The last four Supervisors to run for Senate have been successful: Lou Correa in 2006, Patricia Bates and Janet Nguyen in 2014, and John Moorlach in 2015.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Senator Moorlach

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

This election is over.  There will be no run-off: former Orange County Supervisor John Moorlach is the California State Senator-Elect for the 37th District, rejoining his former colleagues of eight years, Supervisors-turned-Senators Janet Nguyen and Patricia Bates.

Moorlach wins with 50.4%.

The only remaining ballots are absentee ballots that were returned at the polls, SB 29 ballots (i.e. absentee ballots that will arrive in the mail by Friday), and provisional ballots.  It is highly unlikely there are a large enough number to make a difference.  Additionally, Moorlach seemed to gain ground with later ballots, so in all likelihood, the later ballots will only further cement Moorlach’s victory.

Here are the results after early absentees and all poll votes from 248 precincts were counted:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 34,208 50.4%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 29,987 44.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,359 3.5%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,368 2.0%
Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

California State Senator-Elect
John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

 

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , | 12 Comments »

Moorlach Might Win Out Right – Run-Off Looking Less Likely

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

The third results are in:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 171 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 31,856 49.9%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 28,449 44.6%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,266 3.6%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,218 1.9%

 

This third set adds another 89 precincts; combined with 82 precincts already reported, there are now 171 of 248 precincts reporting (69.0%).

Moorlach added 2,127 votes, Wagner added 1,734, Namazi added 88, and Stewardson added 134.

Each update has added another 0.1% to Moorlach.  There are 77 precincts remaining.  It is entirely possible the SB 29 ballots could determine whether there will be a May 19 run-off or if John Moorlach will be a Senator on Friday night.  If Moorlach wins, in a four-month span, the majority of the Orange County Board of Supervisors left the Board and joined the Senate together (Moorlach, Janet Nguyen, and Pat Bates).

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 869 other followers