OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

OC’s Close Contests: Counting Virtually Done

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 15, 2020

Only 1.1% of OC ballots remain to be counted

After counting 16,006 ballots Friday and Saturday, the Orange County Registrar of Voters has counted 812,826 ballots, which puts OC voter turnout in the 2020 primary at 49.7%.  Although the Registrar reports 2,749 ballots left to count, that was after yesterday’s first update, and they did not provide an update on uncounted ballots after releasing yesterday’s second update of counted ballots.  In yesterday’s second update, 2,288 ballots were counted, so that leaves 461 ballots plus whatever additional ballots fall under “California voters’ ability to cure ballots after Election Day, as well as other factors allowing additional ballots to be counted.”

As OC Political noted Thursday, the Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so we have been tracking Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.

Because Central Committee races are exhausting to analyze and write about (and presumably exhausting to read about), only races where a new person has captured sixth place (since the top six are elected in each district) are covered below.  Since the the count resulted in no changes in any of the Central Committee races in either major party, no Central Committee race is covered below.

72nd Assembly District

In the 72nd Assembly District race for the second slot to reach the top two against former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) grew her lead over incumbent Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) to 827 votes (0.70%).  She previously led him in prior counts by 647 votes (0.56%) and 208 votes (0.20%).  Prior to that count, Diep had seen his lead over Diedre Nguyen continually shrink, having previously been 17 votes (0.02%), 291 votes (0.29%), 309 votes (0.31%), 1,050 votes (1.19%), 1,286 votes (1.54%), and 1,975 votes (2.56%).

Total Votes Percentage
39,684 33.83%
D) 29,919 25.50%
(R) 29,092 24.80%
18,621 15.87%

 

Tustin Unified School District Measure N

Tustin Unified School District’s Measure N continued to steadily inch up ever so slightly to 53.66% (1.34% short of 55%), but it is now mathematically impossible for it to reach the 55% required to pass a local school bond.  In the prior three counts, it was 53.59% (1.41% short of 55%), 53.40% (1.60% short of 55%), 53.15% (1.85% short of 55%) and 53.01% (1.99% short of 55%).

To reach 55%, it must win 100% of 695 additional ballots.  If even 1 additional “no” ballot comes in, then that increases the number of “yes” ballots that must come in.  (Note that there appears to be only an estimated 461 ballots left countywide, so an incredible number of cured ballots must come in from TUSD School Facilities Improvement District No. 2020-1 alone.)

Total Votes Percentage
12,474 53.66%
10,774 46.34%

 

(Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: The two 72nd Assembly District candidates, former Senator Janet Nguyen and Garden Grove Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen, are not related to each other, and neither of them are related to me. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

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