2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 55
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 23, 2012
Now comes the crazy Central Committee races with a ridiculous number of candidates running for most of the seats. I have stolen my info tidbits on the candidates from a previous post that I made, but the analysis is all new.
Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.
The candidates include:
Brenda McCune– We are clearly rooting for our fellow OC Political blogger to pull out a victory in this seat. She is a businesswoman who has ties to the community.
Peggy Huang– She is another one of our OC Political bloggers who we are obviously pulling for to win a seat. She is a Deputy Attorney General and very active in the Yorba Linda community.
Tim Shaw– He is currently the Mayor of La Habra and works for State Senator Bob Huff. He did not get the endorsement of the OC GOP back in 2008 over his support for a tax increase.
Robert Lauten– He is currently a candidate for the United States Senate in what looks like it is going to end up being a crowded field.
Dennis R. White– He is currently a member of the Central Committee even though he chose not to use his incumbent designation.
Jim Domen– He is a pastor in Yorba Linda who was extremely active in the Yes on 8 campaign back in 2008. He is also currently an announced candidate for Yorba Linda City Council.
Brett Barbre– He is an appointed incumbent and in general one of the really good guys in politics. He is also running the Troy Edgar for Assembly campaign which is a pretty good bet.
Desare Ferraro– She is the founder of the North Orange County Conservative Coalition and an alternate on the Central Committee.
Connie Lanzisera– She is very active in the tea party group known as the North Orange County Conservative Coalition or NOCCC.
Karla Downing– Same as Connie Lanzisera she is very active in the NOCCC and also seems very active in Yorba Linda.
The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:
1. Brett Barbre
2. Brenda McCune
3. Peggy Huang
4. Jim Domen
5. Tim Shaw
6. Karla Downing