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Posts Tagged ‘Tom Daly’

Forgot Some Electeds: Party Affiliation Part 2

Posted by Chris Emami on March 23, 2013

A reader just sent me a new database that included some elected officials that I forgot about the first time around. These offices would be Congress, Senate, and Assembly which I cannot believe I forgot. Take a look at the short but informative database of these elected officials that represent at least a portion of Orange County.

IntraPartyElephantDonkey

Here you go:

Office Name Party Year

Congress

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 38th DISTRICT Linda Sanchez (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 39th DISTRICT Ed Royce (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 45th DISTRICT John Campbell (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 46th DISTRICT Loretta Sanchez (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 47th DISTRICT Alan Lowenthal (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th DISTRICT Dana Rohrabacher (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 49th DISTRICT Darrell Issa (R) 2014

Senate

STATE SENATE 29th DISTRICT Bob Huff (R) 2016
STATE SENATE 30th DISTRICT Ron Calderon (D) 2014
STATE SENATE 34th DISTRICT Lou Correa (D) 2014
STATE SENATE 36th DISTRICT Mark Wyland (R) 2014
STATE SENATE 37th DISTRICT Mimi Walters (R) 2016

Assembly

STATE ASSEMBLY 55th DISTRICT Curt Hagman (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 65th DISTRICT Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 68th DISTRICT Don Wagner (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 69th DISTRICT Tom Daly (D) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 72nd DISTRICT Travis Allen (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 73rd DISTRICT Diane Harkey (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 74th DISTRICT Allan Mansoor (R) 2014

Posted in 29th Senate District, 34th Senate District, 36th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, State Assembly, State Senate | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Vacancies Galore: Politicians Leaving Mid-Term Leave Seats to Be Filled

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 17, 2012

Empty chairThere were a lot of vacancies this year.  Three countywide posts and one school board seat remain vacant.  All salaries noted below are base pay.

County

Four of Orange County’s eight countywide posts went vacant during 2012.

  1. Orange County Clerk-Recorder: Tom Daly (D) vacated the seat this month to become the 69th District’s State Assemblyman.  Numerous candidates have either expressed interest behind the scenes or are rumored to be interested; none have made public statements.  The job pays $139,256.40 (that extra 40 cents won’t even get you enough postage to send a letter).  Apply online here by January 15.
  2. Orange County Auditor-Controller: David Sundstrom (R) vacated the seat in January to become Sonoma County Auditor-Controller-Treasurer-Tax Collector (yes, that really is a single office in Sonoma County).  The job pays $173,097.60 per year (that 60 cents is crucial).  Apply online here by January 15.
  3. Orange County Public Administrator: John Williams (R) resigned in January or February depending on how you interpret his resignation, un-resignation, and re-resignation saga.  Former Assemblyman Ken Lopez-Maddox (R), who is also a former Garden Grove Councilman and former Capistrano Unified School District Board Member, is the first to publicly throw his hat in the ring. (12/19 Update:The previous sentence was ambiguously worded, so to clarify, Lopez-Maddox is running for the seat in the regularly scheduled June 2014 election but has not indicated if he will apply for the appointment.)  The job pays $30,000 per year (but the Board of Supervisors frequently consolidates it with the more lucrative appointed post of Public Guardian).  Apply online here by January 15.
  4. Orange County Superintendent of Schools: Bill Habermehl (R) vacated the seat in June, deciding it was time for him to retire.  Seven of the eight countywide posts are filled by the County Board of Supervisors when there’s a vacancy.  This is the eighth post, and the County Board of Education appointed Al Mijares (R) to fill the seat.  The job pays $287,500 per year.

Many people have argued Clerk-Recorder, Auditor-Controller, Public Administrator, and various other County posts should be appointed by the Board of Supervisors instead of elected positions.  Good luck with that.  Just six months ago, 60.5% of Orange County voters rejected making Public Administrator an appointed position.

City Council

They move with great speed to fill Council vacancies in Little Saigon.

  1. Garden Grove City Council: Bruce Broadwater (D) vacated the seat this month to become Mayor of Garden Grove.  Minutes after Broadwater became Mayor, the Council held the vote to fill his newly-vacated Council seat.  New Councilman Chris Phan moved to nominate the November election’s 3rd place finisher, Phat Bui, but he failed to get a second on his nomination. Councilwoman Dina Nguyen (R) moved and Councilman Steve Jones (R) seconded the nomination of defeated Councilman Kris Beard (D), who came in 4th in the election, and the Council voted unanimously to appoint Beard to the seat.  Beard was out of office for mere minutes.  The job pays $8,093 per year.
  2. Westminster City Council: Tri Ta (R) vacated the seat this month to become Mayor of Westminster.  In stunningly rapid fashion, the Westminster City Council left his seat vacant for mere minutes before appointing Margie Rice (R) after Ta replaced Rice as Mayor.  In other words, Ta and Rice simply swapped seats.  The jobs pays $10,206 per year.

The County’s smaller cities took a little more time.

  1. Stanton City Council: Councilman Ed Royce, Sr. (R) vacated his seat for health reasons in February.  Rigoberto Ramirez (R) was appointed to fill the seat in March.  Ramirez is up for election to a four-year term in 2014.  The job pays $10,200 per year.
  2. Villa Park City Council: Councilman Bob Fauteux (R) passed away in February.  Rick Barnett (R) was appointed to fill the seat  in March and won election to a four-year term in November with no opponents.  The job pays nothing.

School Board

For the second time this year, the Anaheim Union High School District Board is filling a vacancy.

  1. Anaheim Union High School District Board (February): Earlier this year in February, Jan Harp Domene (D) passed away unexpectedly at the age of 60.  The board appointed Annemarie Randle-Trejo on a 3-1 vote in April.  OC Political covered this process.
  2. Anaheim Union High School District Board (December): Jordan Brandman (D) vacated the seat this month to become an Anaheim City Councilman.  The board will fill his seat early next year.  The job pays $9,731.52.

Brandman originally won his AUHSD seat in a February 2008 special election after a petition overturned the appointment of Harald Martin (R), who was selected by the Board to fill the seat left vacant due to the unexpected passing of Denise Mansfield-Reinking (R) in May 2007.

The AUHSD board is on its third vacancy in six years.

Special District

  1. Municipal Water District of Orange County, Division 3: Director Ed Royce, Sr. (R) vacated his seat for health reasons in February.  Wayne Osborne (R) was appointed to fill the seat in March and won election to a four-year term in a four-way race in November.  The job pays $26,594 per year.

Posted in 69th Assembly District, Anaheim, Anaheim Union High School District, Capistrano Unified School District, Garden Grove, Municipal Water District of Orange County, Orange County, Orange County Board of Education, Orange County Board of Supervisors, Stanton, Villa Park | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

John Hrabe: Quirk-Silva Received $292K in 18 Days via Democratic Central Committees from Blue Shield, Disney, AEG, Aecom, Tom Daly, CSEA, AFSCME Local 685, UDW, CAHP, CDF Firefighters, SW Regional Council of Carpenters, or How AD-65 Really Was Won

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on November 29, 2012

John Hrabe published this piece on his blog and republished it on the Flash Report.

Regardless of your opinion on the propriety of these donations, it’s clear Quirk-Silva’s monetary infusion led to her victory.  $292,000 via Democratic Central Committees overwhelmed $50,000 via Republican Central Committees.

(Note: This article may be republished, provided it is attributed to the author, John Hrabe, with a link to its original url.)

Democrat committees funneled special interest money to O.C. candidate

Special interest groups circumvented state campaign finance laws by using Democrat Party committees to funnel more than a quarter-million dollars to a crucial Orange County assembly candidate, an investigation has found.

In a span of 18 days, late in the campaign, six Democratic county central committees contributed $292,200 to the Assembly campaign of Sharon Quirk-Silva, who defeated Assemblyman Chris Norby, R-Fullerton, by fewer than 5,400 votes. The hundreds of thousands of dollars in last-minute campaign funds secured Quirk-Silva’s election and helped Democrats gain their first super-majority in both houses of the state legislature since 1883.

Irony Alert: Quirk-Silva accused Norby of supporting special interests.

The county party committees made the contributions to Quirk-Silva’s campaign within days and, in some cases, within hours of accepting contributions from the state’s most powerful special interest groups, including labor unions, corporations and a Los Angeles development group.

The Quirk-Silva campaign denies any wrongdoing or coordination of campaign finances between special interest groups and county party committees.

“The Sharon Quirk-Silva for Assembly campaign never requested more than the legal limit from any donor,” said Jason Mills, Quirk-Silva’s campaign manager. “The campaign had no discussions with any of the outside groups listed seeking to arrange contributions larger than what is required under California state law.”

State Campaign Finance Law Allows Parties to Serve as Cash Conduits

Individuals and businesses are limited each election to a maximum contribution of $3,900 per candidate. However, political party committees can accept substantially more than state candidates — $32,500 per election. Political parties can also transfer unlimited funds to state candidates. This system of campaign finance regulations allows parties to function as the middleman for interest groups seeking to support state campaigns.

The state Fair Political Practices Commission, which is responsible for enforcing the California Political Reform Act, has described this strategy as “money laundering” in a similar case involving two Republican legislators. In October, the FPPC alleged that Tom and Bill Berryhill circumvented state campaign finance rules by transferring funds through two Republican central committees during the 2008 campaign.

An FPPC spokeswoman said that the agency “cannot comment on a specific situation,” but confirmed no complaints have been received in the Quirk-Silva case.

Quirk-Silva’s victory has been called the “key to achieving the coveted supermajority” for state Democrats. When asked by the Voice of OC about the significance of Quirk-Silva’s upset, Assembly Democratic spokesman Steven Maviglio said, “This was the prize that made it happen.”

Given the state’s strict campaign finance limits, how could Democrats funnel hundreds of thousands of dollars to a candidate in the final weeks of the campaign?

Same-Day, Same-Dollar Contributions to Central Committees

Campaign finance records show a pattern of large campaign contributions from special interest groups to party committees that were quickly transferred to Quirk-Silva.

On November 2, healthcare giant Blue Shield of California sent $25,000 to the Del Norte County Democratic Central Committee. The very same day, the party transferred the same amount, $25,000, to Quirk-Silva’s campaign.

On October 17, the Del Norte committee also accepted a $25,000 check from PACE of CA School Employees Association, a labor union that represents 215,000 bus drivers, janitors and other school employees. On October 19, the Del Norte Democratic Party sent $10,000 to Quirk-Silva’s campaign.

Could there have been coordination between the school employees’ union and Blue Shield to send $50,000 to the same Democratic central committee?

Del Norte Contribution: Blue Shield, School Employees Shared Lobbyist

In September, the Los Angeles Times reported that both the school employees association and Blue Shield share the same influential Sacramento lobbyist, Dave Low. At the time, health advocates questioned whether Low’s dual role posed a conflict of interest.

“The question is, does Blue Shield have access to insider information through these unions?” Gerald Kominski, director of the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research told the Times. “It doesn’t look right.”

According to state campaign finance records, the Del Norte County Democratic Central Committee had accepted $204,524 in campaign contributions from January 1 to October 20. Based on this figure, the combined Blue Shield and school employees’ contributions represented a quarter of the committee’s total annual receipts. Yet, 70 percent of the funds were immediately transferred to a candidate more than 750 miles away.

Neither Low nor the Del Norte County Democratic Central Committee responded to email requests for comment.

Same-Day, Same-Dollar Donation from Disney to Democrats

In addition to the Del Norte County Democratic Central Committee, another county party processed same-day, same-dollar contributions. On October 19, the same day that Del Norte Democrats sent funds to Quirk-Silva, Disney Worldwide Services, Inc. contributed $10,000 to the Democratic Party of Orange County. The very same day, the party contributed the exact same amount, $10,000, to Quirk Silva’s campaign. The state’s campaign finance laws would have precluded Disney from making a five-figure contribution directly to Quirk-Silva.

Representatives for Disney and the OC Democratic Party deny that there was any coordination of campaign contributions for Quirk-Silva’s benefit.

“There was in no way any coordination regarding this contribution and to my knowledge Disney did not support or endorse Sharon Quirk-Silva’s race for Assembly,” said Nick Anas, executive director of the Democratic Party of Orange County. “Disney Worldwide Services was a platinum sponsor for the 2012 Annual Truman Awards Dinner on Monday, September 17th, in which they agreed to a Platinum sponsorship of $10,000, which is detailed in our program book.”

A Disney spokeswoman corroborated the OC Democratic Party’s version of events— that the funds were for an event more than a month earlier. Anas added that the county party also contributed $10,000 on October 19 to the Yes on Measure BB campaign in Irvine, which passed and allowed city funds to go toward schools. And Anas said that on the same day the party also kicked in $10,000 to the campaign opposing Measure V in Costa Mesa. Measure V would have made the city a Charter City, allowing more leeway in limiting union power. Measure V lost. However, he confirmed, “No funds were earmarked.”

A.E.G. Had Financial Incentive to Defeat Libertarian Norby

More campaign finance irregularities can be found with a Los Angeles development group’s contributions to two Democrat central committees.

Anschutz Entertainment Group Inc., the Los Angeles-based sports and entertainment mogul that owns the Staples Center, contributed $25,000 to the Los Angeles County Democratic Party on October 18. Four days later, on October 22, the Los Angeles party sent a check for the same amount, $25,000, to Quirk-Silva’s campaign.

A.E.G. wasn’t limited to one county party committee contribution. On October 19, the day after it sent $25,000 to the L.A. County Democrat Party, the party sent the same amount, $25,000, to the Kern County Democratic Central Committee. On the same day, the Kern County party committee sent $15,000 to Quirk-Silva in Orange County.

“There was no coordination,” claimed Candi Easter, the chair of the Kern County Democratic Central Committee. “We did not even know of the AEG contribution until after we had approved the donation to the Quirk-Silva Committee.”

Why would a Los Angeles-based company contribute thousands of dollars to party committees in the Central Valley and Los Angeles, which would in turn benefit an Orange County candidate? The answer may be found with redevelopment reform.

Norby, Quirk-Silva’s libertarian-minded opponent, has been a vocal critic of redevelopment agencies, which commonly benefit wealthy development companies at the expense of taxpayers and small businesses. In 2011, Norby was one of only a handful of state legislators to oppose SB 292, which was hurried through in the final days of the legislative year. The legislation created a special process for reviewing environmental challenges to a privately financed Los Angeles stadium, a project that would financially benefit the Anschutz Entertainment Group.

Los Angeles County Democratic Party: A Reliable Campaign Conduit

The Los Angeles County Democrat Party proved to be a reliable conduit for special interest contributions. Within days of accepting $137,250 in campaign contributions from seven special interest groups, the Los Angeles County Democratic Party distributed $127,200, or 93 percent of these received contributions, to Quirk-Silva’s campaign.

On October 10, the L.A. County Probation Officers Union, AFSCME Local 685, contributed $10,000 to the Los Angeles County Democratic Party. One week later, the Los Angeles County central committee contributed $11,700 to Quirk-Silva’s campaign in Orange County.

On October 17, Aecom Technology Corporation, a Los Angeles-based technical support services firm that specializes in environmental services, contributed $10,000 to the Los Angeles County Democratic Party. The day prior, the party contributed the same amount, $10,000, to Quirk-Silva’s campaign.

On October 24, the California Association of Highway Patrolmen contributed $25,000 to the Los Angeles County Democrat Party. Five days later, on October 29, the party delivered $10,500 in campaign funds to Quirk-Silva.

On October 26, the CDF Firefighters, which represents the state’s 4,000 members of the state’s firefighter union, contributed $25,000 to the Los Angeles County Democrat Party. Three days later, on October 29, the party contributed $30,000 to Quirk-Silva’s campaign.

On October 31, the L.A. County Firefighters Local 1014 gave $25,000 to the LA County party, a contribution that was followed two days later by a $17,250 contribution from the Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters. On November 2, the Los Angeles Democratic Party sent a $40,000 check to Quirk-Silva’s campaign.

The incoming contribution from the carpenters’ union was filed on the same disclosure report as the outgoing funds to Quirk-Silva’s campaign. And 95 percent of the combined contributions from the firefighters and carpenters unions made their way to Quirk-Silva’s campaign via the Los Angeles Democratic Party committee.

State Candidates Funded Party Committees

In addition to financial transfers by special interest groups, state candidates provided cash infusions to both Quirk-Silva and Norby via party committees. In one instance, campaign funds were sent from one Orange County legislative candidate to Marin County and then back to a different Orange County candidate, all within seven days.

According to state campaign finance records, the Norby campaign accepted a $50,000 contribution from the California Republican Party on the same day that the party accepted a $50,000 contribution from state Senator Bill Emmerson’s campaign committee.

This mailer accused Norby of supporting big business.

That contribution mirrors a legislative transfer to the Quirk-Silva campaign.

On October 24, Orange County Assembly candidate Tom Daly contributed $32,500 to the Democratic Central Committee of Marin County. On October 26, the party funneled $15,000 back to Orange County for Quirk-Silva’s campaign.

The Quirk-Silva campaign believes that the transaction by the California Republican Party proves there were no financial irregularities in the race.

“It can’t be a ‘finance irregularity’ as you allege, if our opponent was receiving similar contributions,” Mills said.

Both the Daly and Emmerson contributions, unlike the other party central committee transfers, were not preceded by five-figure contributions from special interest groups. State law precludes legislative candidates from accepting such contributions.

However, another Marin County Democratic Party contribution raises questions.

The same day that O.C.’s Daly sent funds to Marin County Democrats, the United Domestic Workers of America, which is based more than 500 miles away in San Diego, sent a $25,000 contribution to the same committee. Once again, the Marin County party held the funds for less than a week before sending it back to Southern California. On October 31, the Marin County party sent $30,000 to Quirk-Silva.

Ironically, all of this special interest money helped fund negative attacks on Norby. The charge: Norby has “special interest donors.”

(Note: This article may be republished, provided it is attributed to the author, John Hrabe, with a link to its original url.)

Posted in 65th Assembly District, Democrat Central Committee, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Half are Republicans, Half are Democrats, and Other Random Stats on Orange County’s Directly-Elected Mayors

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 20, 2012

The New Republican Irvine City Council Majority:
Councilman Jeff Lalloway, Councilwoman-Elect Christina Shea, and Mayor-Elect Steven Choi

Partisan Breakdown

Since 2004, Republicans have held a 4-2 advantage among Orange County’s directly-elected mayors:

  • Anaheim: Tom Tait (since 2010), Curt Pringle (2002-2010)
  • Garden Grove: Bill Dalton (2004-2012)
  • Orange: Carolyn Cavecche (2006-2012), Mark Murphy (2000-2006)
  • Westminster: Margie Rice (Republican 2004-2012; Democrat 2000-2004)

The two Democrats were:

  • Irvine: Sukhee Kang (2008-2012), Beth Krom (2004-2008)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (since 1994)

Anaheim’s Tait has Orange County’s only four-year mayoral seat, so he was not up for election this year. Major changes were in store with three mayors termed out (Garden Grove’s Dalton, Irvine’s Kang, and Orange’s Cavecche) and one mayor voluntarily retiring (Westminster’s Rice), leaving only Santa Ana’s Pulido seeking re-election this year.

While Steven Choi captured the Irvine mayoral seat for the Republicans, Bruce Broadwater of Garden Grove and Tita Smith of Orange captured their respective mayor’s posts for the Democrats.

The Republicans are:

  • Anaheim: Tom Tait (term limit: 2018)
  • Irvine: Steven Choi (term limit: 2016)
  • Westminster: Tri Ta (no term limit)

The Democrats are:

  • Garden Grove: Bruce Broadwater (term limit: 2020)
  • Orange: Tita Smith (term limit: 2018)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (term limit: 2020)

It could be worse though, like the 2000-2002 line-up of directly-elected mayors, which had Orange’s Mark Murphy as the sole Republican:

  • Anaheim: Tom Daly (1992-2002)
  • Garden Grove: Bruce Broadwater (1994-2004)
  • Irvine: Larry Agran (2000-2004)
  • Orange: Mark Murphy (2000-2006)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (since 1994)
  • Westminster: Margie Rice (2000-2004 as a Democrat; 2004-2012 as a Republican)

2012 Demographics

An odd sidenote about 2012: in an election that saw Asian Americans vote 3-1 for Barack Obama, Orange County’s Asian American directly-elected mayors went from consisting of one Democrat (Kang) to consisting of two Republicans (Choi and Ta).

While Cavecche was replaced by Smith in Orange, women lost ground as Rice was replaced by Ta in Westminster.

Term Limits

Anaheim, Garden Grove, and Santa Ana have eight-year term limits (two four-year terms in Anaheim and four two-year terms in Garden Grove and Santa Ana).  Orange has a six-year term limit (three two-year terms).  Irvine has a four-year term limit (two two-year terms).  Westminster has no term limits (two-year terms).

Santa Ana’s mayoral term limit is the newest, having been adopted this month.  Irvine’s mayoral term limit is the oldest, taking effect in 1991.

Anaheim has the toughest term limit on Councilmembers who want to be Mayor.  A first-term Councilmember running for Mayor may only serve one mayoral term.  A second-term Councilmember may not run for Mayor.

Excluding Westminster’s non-limit, Garden Grove and Irvine have the most generous term limit for Councilmembers who want to be Mayor.  In both of those cities, when Councilmembers term out, they can run for Mayor, and when they term out as Mayor, they can run for Council, in a never-ending merry-go-round.

Age

After the 2012 election, the mayoral median age is 60.5 with a mean age is 59.3:

  • Garden Grove: Bruce Broadwater (74)
  • Irvine: Steven Choi (68)
  • Orange: Tita Smith (65)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (56)
  • Anaheim: Tom Tait (54)
  • Westminster: Tri Ta (39)

Before the 2012 election, the mayoral median age was 58 with a mean age of 62.3:

  • Westminster: Margie Rice (83)
  • Garden Grove: Bill Dalton (69)
  • Irvine: Sukhee Kang (60)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (56)
  • Anaheim: Tom Tait (54)
  • Orange: Carolyn Cavecche (52)

The biggest age change was in Westminster, where Margie Rice was replaced by Tri Ta, who is 44 years younger than her.  The smallest age change (excluding Tait and Pulido, for obvious reasons) was in Garden Grove, where Bill Dalton was replaced by Bruce Broadwater, who is 5 years older than him.

While Westminster had a dramatic age decrease for mayor, Garden Grove, Irvine, and Orange all had age increases for mayor.

The Democrat median and mean ages both increased from 58 to 65.

The Republican median age decreased from 61.5 to 54 while the Republican mean age decreased from 64.5 to 53.7.

Posted in Anaheim, Garden Grove, Irvine, Orange, Santa Ana, Westminster | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

AD-69: Moreno Drops Out Citing Hatch Act, Name Will Remain on Ballot

Posted by Chris Nguyen on September 28, 2012

In case you hadn’t read the other blogs (like Liberal OC or Orange Juice) yesterday, Republican 69th Assembly District candidate Jose “Joe” Moreno announced that he was dropping out of the AD-69 race because of the Hatch Act.

While the timing is surprising, this development itself should not be of surprise to anyone:

  • On March 29, Moreno wrote to the Registrar of Voters attempting to withdraw from the AD-69 race, citing the Hatch Act.  (The Registrar denied this request.)
  • In the second week of April, OC Political, the OC Register, the Liberal OC, and then OC Political again speculated/warned/advised that Moreno’s candidacy likely violated the Hatch Act.
  • On April 21, Moreno issued this press release declaring his candidacy was not in violation of the Hatch Act.
  • On April 23, the Liberal OC again wrote that Moreno’s candidacy violated the Hatch Act.
  • On July 18, unbeknownst to the OC mainstream media and blogosphere, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel issued an advisory opinion, entitled “California’s Voter-Nominated Primary Elections are Presumptively Partisan for Purposes of the Hatch Act.”

In that July 18 advisory opinion, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel  stated:

In short, California’s voter-nominated elections are presumptively partisan elections for purposes of the Hatch Act. As such, an SSA employee covered by the Hatch Act may not be a candidate in voter-nominated primary elections.

The advisory opinion also states:

…even if voter-nominated elections were designated nonpartisan by the California Constitution, and therefore presumed nonpartisan for purposes of section 1503, the presumption would be rebutted. The California Constitution allows candidates in the voter-nominated primaries to list a party preference following their names on the ballot…

Though the advisory opinion is redacted, it’s fairly obvious that this was the advisory opinion requested regarding Moreno.  There are only 306 candidates running in a California voter-nominated race in November (2 each for the U.S. Senate, for 53 U.S. House races, for 20 State Senate races, and for 78 Assembly races, plus Assemblywoman Susan Bonilla (D-14) and Assemblyman Isadore Hall III (D-64), both of whom are unopposed).  Moreno is the only one of the 306 to work for a Social Services Agency.

(One interesting footnote in the advisory opinion:

Arguably, if in a particular voter-nominated primary election all of the candidates were to run without designating a political party as their party preference then the election could be considered a nonpartisan election for purposes of section 1503 of the Hatch Act.

So a bunch of NPPs running could technically make the race nonpartisan for purposes of the Hatch Act.)

In April, OC Political had noted the case of Geof Lickey, who was able to get off of the June 2012 ballot for the AD-31 seat due to the Hatch Act because he acted more quickly than Moreno did.

The fifth commenter on this June post from Liberal OC pointed to the case of Judge Ronald Kline, who withdrew in the tiny window after the primary but before certification of the election.  The courts eventually ruled that third-place finisher Gay Sandoval would replace Kline on the November runoff ballot.  (John Adams, who had originally won the right to face off against Kline, defeated Sandoval.)

Had Moreno or the Orange County Social Services Agency moved more quickly to seek an advisory opinion from the U.S. Office of Special Counsel back in April, Moreno’s ineligibility could have been discovered sooner, and he could have withdrawn during the primary.  Considering Moreno only edged out Julio Perez by 242 votes, it is not inconceivable that more than 242 voters had Googled the race and discovered that Moreno’s press release or the various blog posts (such as this one from Orange Juice) in which he declared as lies the Jobs PAC IEs on behalf of Daly that claimed Moreno had dropped out (I believe his claim was also posted on his web site before he took it down).

Or if Moreno had withdrawn before the June primary was certified, voters in AD-69 would have had a choice between first-place finisher Tom Daly and third-place finisher Julio Perez.  Due to Prop 14, voters don’t even have the choice of a write-in candidate, so this late withdrawal leaves AD-69 voters with the choice of Daly or the withdrawn Moreno.

While this was Moreno’s first run for partisan office, this was not his first time throwing his hat in the political ring.  According to JoinCalifornia, Moreno had previously run unsuccessfully for Orange County Board of Education (2000 primary), Rancho Santiago Community College District (2000 general), and Anaheim Union High School District (2010 general).

We are now left with just two questions: Will Moreno resign his ex officio seat on the Republican Central Committee?  What will Garden Grove Councilman Steve Jones do about his endorsement flip-flopping between Democrat Daly and Republican Moreno.

Moreno’s site is down, but this is what he wrote before he took it down: Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 69th Assembly District, Anaheim Union High School District, Garden Grove, Orange County Board of Education, Rancho Santiago Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

2012 General Election Predictions: 69th Assembly District

Posted by Chris Emami on September 18, 2012

This prediction won’t make Republicans happy, but my goal here is to be realistic not optimistic.The 69th Assembly District has been a nightmare for Republicans since forever. The district is an Orange County seat that covers Santa Ana and part of Anaheim:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

As you can see Democrats have a registration of 50.2%, Republican have a registration of 28.0%, and DTS have a registration of 18.2%. Republicans won nothing in this district back in 2010 but on an interesting note these are socially conservative Democrats as Prop 8 passed by over 20 points.

In the June election Jose Moreno advanced to June but he actually did worse than I projected falling almost 7% below Republican registration. Here are the results:

Member of the State Assembly; District 69

  • Tom Daly, Democratic ………. 10,939 votes 39.2%
  • Jose “Joe” Moreno, Republican ………. 5,980 votes 21.4%
  • Julio Perez, Democratic ………. 5,738 votes 20.6%
  • Michele Martinez, Democratic ………. 4,651 votes 16.7%
  • Francisco “Paco” Barragán, Democratic ………. 605 votes 2.2%

Francisco Barragans total just utterly shocks me as I cannot believe he only got 605 votes. As you can see from the above numbers Moreno finished almost 18% behind Tom Daly and he was the only Republican in the race.

On an interesting note Daly is not doing so well on fundraising with only $22,000 left in his account after the primary election. Sadly Moreno is doing worse without the fundraising ability to trigger online filing.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Tom Daly

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

Did Garden Grove Councilman Steve Jones Endorse Tom Daly or Jose Moreno for AD-69?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on September 18, 2012

Almost five months ago, the Tom Daly for Assembly campaign issued a press release called, “Four Garden Grove City Councilmembers Endorse Tom Daly for Assembly” (which you can still find on Daly’s web site, which we ran on OC Political, and which Liberal OC ran).  You can also find Jones still listed in Daly’s endorsement list.

Jones sought the Republican Party of Orange County’s endorsement last night.  Central Committee Member Tim Whitacre pulled Jones from consideration because Jones had endorsed Democrat Tom Daly (as the press release above indicated).

When questioned, Jones denied that he endorsed Daly (contradicting the press release above).

OC GOP Chairman Scott Baugh then asked if Jones had endorsed AD-69 Republican Candidate Jose “Joe” Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).

Jones said he had not but then immediately endorsed Moreno in front of the ~150 people in attendance at the OC GOP Central Committee meeting.

With Jones denying that he endorsed Daly and with him endorsing Moreno live, the Central Committee then had a unanimous voice vote to endorse Jones.

The discrepancy still needs to be resolved however.  Was the Daly press release from the spring erroneous, and is Daly still erroneously listing Jones? Or did Jones flip his endorsement just last night?  Has Jones contacted Daly to discuss the present status of his endorsement?

Posted in 69th Assembly District, Garden Grove, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

AD-69: Anaheim Saved Republican Moreno, Pushed Democrat Perez into Third, Averting Dem vs. Dem Slugfest in November

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 28, 2012

Last week, I blogged two city-by-city breakdowns of the results in two Assembly races.

First up was AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.

Next up was AD-74, which showed Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa) and Businessman Robert Rush (D-Newport Beach) alternating as first and second place in each city in the district, with the sole exception being Newport Beach, where Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach) slipped in ahead of Rush but behind Mansoor.

Up today is the final OC Assembly race that featured more than two candidates: AD-69.  First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

Orange County Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly (D) 10,939 39.2%
Eligibility Technician Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) 5,980 21.4%
Union Leader Julio Perez (D) 5,738 20.6%
Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D) 4,651 16.7%
Businessman Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) 605 2.2%

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the four cities of AD-69: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove, and Orange.

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-69.  The bulk of Santa Ana and a sliver of Garden Grove are in AD-69 while a sliver of Santa Ana and the bulk of Garden Grove are in AD-72.  A sliver of Orange is in AD-69 but the bulk of it is in AD-68.  Anaheim is divided into nearly even thirds, with the western 1/3 in AD-65, the central 1/3 in AD-69, and the eastern 1/3 in AD-68.)

Daly was consistently first in each city while Barragan was consistently fifth.  Moreno, Perez, and Martinez swapped around for the second, third, and fourth place positions.  The humongous Daly head is indicative of his first place finish in all four cities; taking his head out of the individual cities allows us to more closely examine second and third place, which actually differed in the four cities.  In each individual city, the candidate with the larger head came in second while the candidate with the smaller head came in third:

  • Moreno came in second with Perez third in Anaheim and Garden Grove.
  • Perez came in second with Martinez third in Santa Ana.
  • Moreno came in second with Martinez third in Orange.

Here’s their vote totals broken down visually by city:

Since Daly came in first by such a large margin (indeed, Daly’s Santa Ana total nearly bested everyone else’s districtwide total) and Barragan fell to fifth by such a large margin (Daly’s Garden Grove total outpaced Barragan’s districtwide total), let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:

It’s clear that without Anaheim, Perez would have made it into the top two and on to November, rather than Moreno.  Moreno’s final vote total was 5,980 while Perez’s was 5,738.  Without Anaheim, Moreno would have had 4,105 while Perez would have had 4,308. (Anaheim gave Moreno 1,875 votes and Perez 1,430 votes, a 445-vote margin).  Perez lost districtwide to Moreno by 242 votes; without Anaheim, Moreno would have lost to Perez by 203 votes.

Anaheim was a crucial stronghold for Moreno, as he came in fourth in Santa Ana but second in Anaheim.

However, with so few cities in AD-69, and Santa Ana such a strong majority of that district (59% of registered voters in AD-69 live in Santa Ana, and 60% of ballots cast in AD-69 were from Santa Ana), it would be more useful to break this result down into regions smaller than cities.  Luckily for this purpose, the City of Santa Ana has Council wards.

Here, the larger head came in first while the smaller head came in second:

  • Daly came in first with Moreno second in Wards 3 and 6.
  • Perez came in first with Daly second in Wards 1 and 4.
  • Perez came in first with Martinez second in Wards 2 and 5 (Martinez represents Ward 2 on the Santa Ana City Council, by the way).

Despite the fact that Perez won four wards and Daly only won two, Daly actually won Santa Ana by a 10% margin.  How?  Well, 48% of registered voters in Santa Ana live in the two wards that Daly won: Wards 3 and 6.  49% of Santa Anans who voted in the AD-69 race live in Wards 3 and 6, so those two wards did not have disproportionate voter turnout – they just have a disproportionate share of the voters to begin with.  A picture is worth a thousand words, so…

The overwhelming majority of Daly and Moreno’s votes in Santa Ana came from Wards 3 and 6, with 59% of Daly’s Santa Ana votes and 66% of Moreno’s Santa Ana votes coming from those two wards.  By contrast, 29% of Perez’s Santa Ana votes and 38% of Martinez’s Santa Ana votes came from those two wards.  Here’s each candidate’s vote totals broken down visually by ward:

Once again, due to Daly’s landslide first-place finish and Barragan’s distant fifth-place finish, let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:

Perez’s vote totals were fairly evenly spread out across the wards, Martinez got a bump from Ward 3, but Moreno’s performance was very strong in Wards 3 and 6 and disastrous in Wards 2, 4, and 5.

Had Perez done a stronger push in Anaheim or a three-prong strategy in Anaheim, Santa Ana’s Ward 3, and Santa Ana’s Ward 6, there’d be a Democrat vs. Democrat intraparty battle in AD-69 in November between business-backed Tom Daly and union-backed Julio Perez.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

How Fast is the Registrar of Voters Counting Ballots? When Will They Finish? Who Will This Affect?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 14, 2012

On Friday evening, there were 17,125 uncounted ballots.

By Monday evening, there were 14,724 uncounted ballots, meaning 2,401 ballots were resolved on Monday.

By Tuesday evening, there were 9,528 uncounted ballots, meaning 5,196 ballots were resolved on Tuesday.

By last night, there were 4,625 uncounted ballots, meaning 4,903 ballots were resolved on Wednesday.

At the rate they’re going, it’s highly likely the Registrar of Voters completes the vote count today.

For visual learners:

There are only a few races that could still be affected by the outstanding ballots.

  • Will Ray Grangoff close his 51-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?  Will Ken Williams close both his 115-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway and his 64-vote deficit to overtake Ray Grangroff for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?
  • Will Bill Dunlap close his 62-vote deficit to overtake John Draper for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 74th District?

Those two races are the only ones in all of Orange County where the gap between the elected and the unelected (or 2nd and 3rd place in those fighting to advance to November from primaries) is 0.3% or less.  It is highly unlikely the 4,625 outstanding ballots would move the needle any more than 0.3%.

There are a couple races where the current leads would be unaffected by the remaining 4,625 ballots, but where the gap could close enough to lead the 3rd or 4th place candidate to pay for a recount to advance to November from the primaries.  (I’m assuming no one’s going to pay for a recount for any party’s Central Committee.)

69th Assembly District
Tom Daly (D) 10,862 39.3%
Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) 5,933 21.5%
Julio Perez (D) 5,649 20.4%
Michele Martinez (D) 4,614 16.7%
Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) 594 2.1%

Team Perez is likely contemplating whether they’ll pay for a recount if they get within 1% of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).  Perez’s allies spent six figures trying to elect him, so the cost of a recount wouldn’t be out of the question for them.

72nd Assembly District
Troy Edgar (R) 17,968 28.0%
Travis Allen (R) 12,726 19.8%
Joe Dovinh (D) 12,353 19.3%
Long Pham (R) 12,325 19.2%
Albert Ayala (D) 8,756 13.7%

Long Pham is likely contemplating if he will pay for a recount if he gets within 0.5% of Travis Allen.  It’s unlikely Joe Dovinh or his team have the financial resources to pay for a recount.  Pham would need to dig into his own pockets for a recount.  He’s already spent $100,000 of his personal funds on his campaign and making 2nd place to get to the November general election against Troy Edgar may be the only way he recoups that $100,000.

The 1% for Perez vs. the 0.5% for Pham is on the basis that Perez would be more aggressive than Pham in pursuing a recount, as Perez’s allies spent more and have deeper pockets to pay for a recount while Pham spent less and has more shallow (less deep?) pockets.

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

AD-69: Traditional D vs. R Match-Up in Daly vs. Moreno; Martinez Plays Spoiler for Perez

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 13, 2012

On Monday, I took a look at AD-72, and in this post, I’ll be looking at another of OC’s multi-candidate Assembly races that has now narrowed down to two: AD-69.

Conventional wisdom held that if any OC district was going to feature an intraparty battle in November (courtesy of Prop 14), it was going to be the Republicans in AD-74 between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle or the Democrats in AD-69 between OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly and either labor leader Julio Perez or Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez.  (Unexpectedly, it was AD-72 that created OC’s sole intraparty battle with an all-Republican November matchup between Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.)

AD-69 will come down to Daly and Republican OC Eligibility Technician Jose “Joe” Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).

We here at OC Political predicted Daly vs. Moreno here, here, and here. (While we made several predictions that went wrong [like nearly everybody else, we failed to predict Edgar vs. Allen in AD-72], we’ve been consistent in predicting Daly 1st and Moreno 2nd in AD-69.)

This race was incredibly evenly divided.  Daly was far and away the top vote-getter, getting nearly double the number of votes of the second-place candidate.

Tom Daly 10,724 39.6%
Jose “Joe” Moreno 5,843 21.6%
Julio Perez 5,440 20.1%
Michele Martinez 4,506 16.6%
Francisco “Paco” Barragan 577 2.1%

Some readers may be wondering if Perez could still catch Moreno with the remaining uncounted ballots.   There just aren’t enough out there. 27,090 out of the 417,965 ballots counted in Orange County so far cast votes in AD-69, which equals 6.5% of the votes.  There are 9,528 uncounted ballots remaining in Orange County, which leaves approximately 619 votes remaining in AD-69.  To make up his current 403-vote deficit, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 65.1%.  If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 75.1%, leaving just 14.9% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan.  Let’s say AD-69 has a disproportionate share of the outstanding ballots, and double that to 1,238 ballots remaining in AD-69, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 32.6%.  That is a tough margin for Perez.  If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 42.6%, leaving just 47.4% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan.

It’s clear from the results that Martinez was Perez’s spoiler.  If just 10% of Martinez’s votes had gone to Perez, he would have surpassed Moreno and advanced to a run-off against Daly.  Martinez and Perez were clearly the liberal Democrats in the race, with Daly and Barragan the more moderate Democrats, and Moreno was the Republican.  The lion’s share of Martinez’s votes would have gone to Perez.

It’s now clear that without Michele Martinez in the race, union-backed Democrat Julio Perez would have advanced to the November run-off against business-backed Democrat Tom Daly.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments »

 
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