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Posts Tagged ‘Tim Donnelly’

June 2014 Post-Election Analysis: Governor

Posted by Chris Emami on June 9, 2014

In my effort to keep our readership happy and provide some interesting content on the blog while we all wait for the filing period for the November General Election to commence, I will be giving an analysis of each race (not including races with a Custom Campaigns client in it) detailing what happened. Each race will be analyzed with an Orange County perspective in mind.

I will be waiting a few weeks on my analysis of the race for California State Controller because the race is ridiculously close between 2nd-4th place and I want to know for sure who is advancing before I analyze this one. On a side note Chris Nguyen has informed me that he will be doing his analysis of different races with heads on the map (he did these in 2012).

california_flag

We will start by taking a look at the race for Governor. Under the  Prop 14 rules the top two candidates advance to number regardless of how high a percentage the top vote getter receives. This is good news for Neel Kashkari who advances to November but faces a steep uphill battle. Here are the statewide results on the race:

Candidate Votes Percent
Akinyemi Agbede (Party Preference: DEM) 30,469
0.8%
* Edmund G. “Jerry” Brown (Party Preference: DEM) 1,970,995
54.1%
Richard William Aguirre (Party Preference: REP) 30,215
0.8%
Andrew Blount (Party Preference: REP) 78,173
2.1%
Glenn Champ (Party Preference: REP) 65,638
1.8%
Tim Donnelly (Party Preference: REP) 543,817
14.9%
Neel Kashkari (Party Preference: REP) 710,881
19.5%
Alma Marie Winston (Party Preference: REP) 39,223
1.1%
Luis J. Rodriguez (Party Preference: GRN) 53,220
1.5%
Cindy L. Sheehan (Party Preference: P&F) 42,731
1.2%
“Bo” Bogdan Ambrozewicz (Party Preference: NPP) 12,204
0.3%
Janel Hyeshia Buycks (Party Preference: NPP) 9,965
0.3%
Rakesh Kumar Christian (Party Preference: NPP) 9,217
0.3%
Joe Leicht (Party Preference: NPP) 7,815
0.2%
Robert Newman (Party Preference: NPP) 36,699
1.0%

These results show Tim Donnelly running fairly closely to Neel Kashkari statewide but surprisingly in conservative Orange County Kashkari had a much wider margin of victory over Donnelly as can be seen by the results:

Governor
Completed Precincts: 1856 of 1856
Vote Count Percentage
* EDMUND G. “JERRY” BROWN 114,481 38.3%
NEEL KASHKARI 92,946 31.1%
TIM DONNELLY 58,715 19.7%
ANDREW BLOUNT 8,031 2.7%
GLENN CHAMP 5,320 1.8%
RICHARD WILLIAM AGUIRRE 3,215 1.1%
CINDY L. SHEEHAN 2,965 1.0%
ALMA MARIE WINSTON 2,941 1.0%
ROBERT NEWMAN 2,700 0.9%
LUIS J. RODRIGUEZ 2,299 0.8%
AKINYEMI AGBEDE 1,946 0.7%
“BO” BOGDAN AMBROZEWICZ 900 0.3%
JOE LEICHT 843 0.3%
RAKESH KUMAR CHRISTIAN 753 0.3%
JANEL HYESHIA BUYCKS 588 0.2%

Looking at results from the different cities in Orange County Neel Kashkari managed to finish ahead of Donnelly in all but one city. I was shocked to see that the city Tim Donnelly finished ahead of Neel Kashkari in was Santa Ana of all places by a margin of over 500 vote (vote counting is not quite over yet).

Statewide though Jerry Brown dominated most counties however it was Tim Donnelly and not Neel Kashkari that pulled off a win in a couple of counties (Modoc & Lassen). Here is a map from the Secretary of States website that shows the winners by county.

Governors_Map

Donnelly ran a more grassroots campaign relying on members of the tea party and other conservative groups to help spread his message spending a grand total of $585,000 on the race including the following major categories of expenditures (expenditures are through 5-17-2014):

Consultants $220,000
Campaign Literature/Mailings $9,000
Campaign Paraphernalia/Miscellaneous $4,000
Television/Cable $0

Kashkari definitely ran a more aerial campaign as can be seen from his campaign finance reports were he spent over $2,500,000 on the race including the following major categories of expenditures (expenditures are through 5-17-2014):

Consultants $340,000
Campaign Literature/Mailings $237,000
Campaign Paraphernalia/Miscellaneous $9,000
Television/Cable $1,000,000

Jerry Brown is clearly waiting for November with his campaign spending less than $100,000 in June.

At the end of the day numbers don’t lie and Jerry Brown is in a very strong position going forward to November. Despite low Democratic turnout Brown managed to capture over 50% of the vote statewide. Kashkari is going to be attacked by Jerry Brown in messaging to conservatives (who already were likely in the Donnelly camp) that Kashkari voted for Obama and ran TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program). With increased voter turnout in November for Democrats and the possibility of some conservative voters sitting out this race Jerry Brown is at a definite advantage going into the November election. Financially Brown has over $20,000,000 cash on hand while Kashkari has just $1,400,000 which is a substantial deficit to start things off.

I am not going to make a prediction on this race though because Neel Kashkari did run a much stronger campaign than Donnelly and despite facing tough odds against Jerry Brown the CRP has been a bit revitalized with Jim Brulte doing an excellent job since taking over. I look forward to seeing Kashkari run a much stronger and more competent campaign than Meg Whitman did in 2010 (he can start by keeping the axe off of future mailers).

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Gubernatorial Race Looks To Be A Nail Biter. LA Times has Kashkari Up 5%

Posted by Chris Emami on June 2, 2014

The LA Times just recently announced the results of a poll that they conducted for the gubernatorial race:

Half of Californians deemed likely to vote in the primary supported Brown’s reelection. Among his chief challengers, both Republicans, Neel Kashkari was far behind at 18% and Tim Donnelly trailed at 13%. The difference between the two vying for the second slot in the general election was within the poll’s margin of error.

The results showing Jerry Brown at over 50% are not surprising since incumbency is still of some value and Kashkari and Donnelly have been targeting each other more than Brown based on mailers and individual appearances at events.

131106-Tim-Donnelly-4051

Despite the fact that Donnelly currently trails Kashkari by 5% of the vote in the most recent poll I believe that the race may be closer than some may expect. Voter turnout is extremely low at this point and I project based on the fact that as of 6-2-2014 only 156,741 out of 743,454 (21%) of absentee ballots have been returned we are going to have a lower turnout than most people are expecting. This low turnout will benefit Donnelly more than Kashkari because Donnelly has a conservative voting base that is more likely to mail in an absentee ballot or vote at the polls.

At this point I would say that Kashkari is definitely the front-runner but I believe the race for second place will be a nail biter. The higher the turn out on election day the worse off Donnelly is.

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Vetting Donnelly

Posted by Walter Myers III on May 24, 2014

131106-Tim-Donnelly-4051Tim Donnelly is one of those figures who seems to draw intense reactions from either “side” of the current schism running within the Republican Party. That schism is roughly drawn along the “establishment”/moderate side of the party versus the conservative base/Tea Party. Inasmuch as the conservative base is “all in” for Donnelly, the establishment side is equally strident and dug in that Donnelly essentially is not fit to lead the Republican Party in California. On the conservative base side we hear the constant refrain that the establishment can’t win without the base, but the conservative base does not seem to recognize that the party can’t win without the establishment either. On the establishment side, there is such fear of losing and continuing to be a permanent minority in California that anything a Tea Party type candidate does that appears to upset minority groups brings out quite a bit of loathing, sometimes even to the point of pandering. Clearly, with such distrust amongst two sides that are supposed to be united to beat Democrats, the Republican Party has become one that eats its own, making it easier for Democrats to pick off candidates who have been already badly damaged by their own party. If this continues, the Party is pretty much done as we know it.

As it pertains to Donnelly, I am hard pressed to understand why there is so much handwringing over his candidacy for California governor. By all accounts Donnelly is honest, hardworking, and a strong conservative who brings a libertarian streak that is truly a breath of fresh air in the Republican Party, and has the potential to bring in young voters as well as Independents that have soured on the party. With respect to his position on illegal immigration, how can he be disqualified as a candidate for simply believing that we need to enforce existing laws on the books? In my own discussions with Donnelly, while he wasn’t prepared to become a proponent of the Lincoln Club immigration reform policy, he said that he was always open to different ideas on solving the problem. So I never saw him as a closed book on that issue. Yes, he has said some unartful things in the past, but who hasn’t? Tim is a man. I am a man. Reagan was a man. Men are imperfect and we should never expect perfection from men. And parties are even more imperfect vehicles because they’re made up of imperfect people. Just remember it was our beloved Reagan who gave us amnesty in 1986, which failed miserably and has us in a situation almost thirty years later where we have twelve million new illegal immigrants and a seemingly intractable problem for Republicans.

And then we have the situation where a Donnelly associate accused Donnelly’s opponent Neel Kashkari of supporting Sharia law due to welcoming remarks Kashkari gave in 2008 at a U.S. Treasury conference about Islamic finance. Does this event tie Kashkari to Sharia law? This, in my view, is a tendentious charge at best, but it certainly wasn’t racist which we know isn’t even a meaningful charge anymore because the term has become so cheap. As a “black” person, I truly do lament that as someone who actually suffered racism growing up in the south. To see white people throw this word around, particularly guilty white liberals and self-serving, opportunistic Republicans, is highly offensive to me and I am personally quite tired of people using the word when they hardly even know what it truly means. But anyway, what I want to argue here is what people like about Donnelly is that what you see is what you get. He is not poll tested, he doesn’t have consultants whispering in his ear, and he doesn’t have handlers. So he will probably make more mistakes than most politicians, but after almost six years of Obama lying to the American people on a regular basis, don’t we want to know what candidates really think instead of someone else telling them what to say which may not reflect the way they really feel on a given issue? I will take a real person over someone whose words are carefully groomed by a nameless, faceless consultant any day of the week.

Now given all I have discussed thus far, I do think that Donnelly needs to make some changes. He needs to begin reaching out beyond his base. He needs to tackle the nasty, gnarly third rail of politics, illegal immigration, and speak to the party about how he would handle this situation. But what is key is that he needs to learn different ways to communicate with different groups of people that don’t belie his conservative principles since Tim Donnelly without his conservatives principles is not the Tim Donnelly anyone should want. Leaders come and go, as Reagan did. And we don’t need another Reagan. What we need is a leader of our time who espouses the conservative principles that Reagan did but can communicate those principles in a manner that reaches into people’s hearts and minds. This past Friday I heard Dr. Ben Carson, who was standing in for Sean Hannity on his radio program, explain how we hear in precise medical vocabulary which is exceedingly complex. He did it in almost one breath and it was one of the most brilliant things I have ever heard. He is a brain surgeon, after all. But he was also on the liberal-leaning The View program with Whoopi Goldberg and crew this week talking about Obamacare and welfare. His simple words were so filled with grace, calm, and common sense that he had the cast mostly agreeing with him as well as the audience. That is the mark of a true communicator: one who can communicate well no matter the context. But we don’t necessarily need a brain surgeon to run California. We need a real person of character, conviction, and conservative principles that will make this once great state a beacon of hope and opportunity for all its citizens again. Can Donnelly be that man? I don’t know the answer, but let’s at least give him the chance to fail without making it a fait accompli due to the destruction we all too often visit on our very own.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , | 3 Comments »

Kelly Hubbard and the War within the GOP

Posted by Walter Myers III on May 17, 2014

donnelly-with-Latino-woman-250x164In the same manner that he carelessly accused Assemblyman Allan Mansoor of calling a constituent a racist when Mansoor was simply defending one of his staff members who had been accused of being an illegal immigrant, Kelly Hubbard comes out with an article on the Orange County Tea Party blog condemning the Orange County Lincoln Club for a vote of “no confidence” in California governor candidate Tim Donnelly (due in part to his rigid stance on resolving the illegal immigration problem). Hubbard’s first hyper-intelligent lob at the Lincoln Club is that it is filled with “nothing but corporatist country-club [sic] republicans, who like to influence candidates to support their version of amnesty by bribing them with donations and support.” Well, I am a recent addition to the board of the Lincoln Club. I don’t belong to a country club (seeing nothing wrong with those who do as I’m happy for anyone else’s earned success), and I’m of mixed ancestry (specifically, African, Irish, German, and American Indian). So I don’t even fit the stereotype of “country-club” types and neither do many of the current members of the Lincoln Club. The Lincoln Club of today is made up of an increasingly diverse group of successful people of all backgrounds who share a belief in limited government, maximum civil liberties, and a strong defense to secure those liberties. Yes, the membership fee is higher than many other Political Action Committees, but those fees are used to fund candidates and to attract top talent to our many events so we can interact with not only political leaders but political activists as well such as James O’Keefe and Dr. Ben Carson.

Now I don’t want to disparage Hubbard, as I feel he is a person with good intentions, and I would strongly argue that he actually wants pretty much the same things as the Lincoln Club wants. So why he chooses to demonize the Lincoln Club over its immigration policy is beyond me. He goes on in his article to completely mischaracterize the policy as no more than a “3-point amnesty plan.” But what precisely is the meaning of the word “amnesty?” The American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth Edition defines amnesty as “a general pardon granted by a government.” So in a sense one could say the Lincoln Club policy advocates for amnesty because one of its provisions does forgive those who have come here illegally by providing them with legal status only. This is a policy paper, not legislation, and its provisions are far different from the actually amnesty legislation signed into law by President Ronald Reagan in 1986. The 1986 law provided a path to citizenship and was supposed to provide for tighter border enforcement. There were supposed to be tough employer sanctions. But as we all know, the border was never secured primarily due to poor funding, and the employer sanctions were so watered down they were effectively worthless. So illegal immigrants continued to come and reasonably concluded that it was worth the risk coming to America to work illegally, and employers continued to hire them on the flimsiest of paperwork. And now we have the same problem, only worse.

The Lincoln Club policy recognized the failings of the 1986 amnesty but unlike Hubbard, who wants a simple employer enforcement solution so illegal immigrants will self-deport, we didn’t feel self-deportation was either an effective or humane solution to the problem of illegal immigration. The Lincoln Club, led by committee Chairwoman Teresa Hernandez, deliberated for a good two years to produce the policy. It was a lot of hard work and wasn’t done at the Shady Canyon Golf Club sipping single-malt scotch while smoking cigars with agribusiness lobbyists as Hubbard probably envisions. It was a group of thoughtful people including representatives from the Hispanic 100 in a joint effort who had strong, sometimes diverging views on solving the immigration problem. And when the policy was done, there were no “bribes” as Hubbard puts it consisting of donations and support. We simply met with candidates and elected leaders explaining the policy and why we felt the specific sequencing was important to solving the problem, preventing us from landing in the same place we are twenty years from now as with the 1986 amnesty. The first item, border enforcement, was absolutely vital to the Lincoln Club policy, and was accepted unanimously by members of both the Lincoln Club and the Hispanic 100. Despite what Hubbard might think about “pandering” to certain groups as he has written elsewhere, the majority of Hispanics believe in protecting our border, and do not believe citizenship should simply be extended to those who have obviously broken the law. This is reflected in the Lincoln Club policy thinking.

The Lincoln Club believes that the three-point plan must be executed in its entirety, probably best in a sequential manner so we can ensure the success of previous components. Only once the border is secured shall the plan proceed to creating a guest worker program, even though that program would begin preparation phases concurrently, such as registering current illegal workers and setting up a functioning guest worker program similar to the guest worker Bracero Program that ran from 1942 to 1964. As a member of the committee, I actually felt the guest worker program was more important than the border enforcement because if you think about it, if there is a legal, safe means to come the United States to work, based purely on market forces of supply and demand, why would anyone come here illegally unless they were either stupid or engaged in criminal activity? So I lost on that argument, but that demonstrates how vital the Lincoln Club felt that unless the United States couldn’t or wouldn’t protect its border, then it wouldn’t get a guest worker program right either, so that was first priority. The third point is employer enforcement and support, using technology available today that makes it easy to track guest workers electronically and ensure employers that they are complying with the law. Of course, all points of the three-point plan depend on Congress doing the right thing for all three, and the Lincoln Club immigration policy committee was adamant this be done the right way so we don’t have the same problem we’re trying to solve now twenty years from now.

To close, and to the point of my title, I want to point out the tone in Hubbard’s piece, which is my biggest worry for the people who follow his articles and more importantly, the Republican Party itself. In a private communication, Hubbard intimated to me that in growing the party it shouldn’t exclude “the base.” What Hubbard doesn’t understand is this works both ways. As I wrote in my last post here, any candidate such as Donnelly needs the conservative base, the establishment, and Reagan Democrats to have any chance of winning the governorship in California. So Hubbard may argue that we need people like him who he calls the base (and as a social conservative/Tea Party advocate I include myself in the base), but I’m arguing that we need Republicans who do not represent “the base” as well. And from my view, much to my lament, is a party at war with itself, tearing itself apart while Democrats stand united behind more government control over our lives. So lobbing grenades from either side gets us nowhere, and on the Tea Party side Hubbard is one of the ringleaders in grenade throwing exercises, which should stop and could stop if they choose to stop. I don’t recall Hubbard reaching out to Allan Mansoor to get his perspective before leveling race-based charges, and I don’t recall him reaching out to Teresa Hernandez or anyone else on the Lincoln Club immigration policy committee to ask for more details or a better understanding. What we got was an uninformed hit piece. My hope is that in the future, Hubbard will be looking to understand first before he writes, and that he will be open to a rapprochement between “the base” and the establishment/country club Republicans he so likes to deride, not realizing that he needs them as much as they need him for the Republican Party to continue to survive in Orange County, the state of California, and indeed, the country at large.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , | 3 Comments »

Thoughts on the Lincoln Club Annual Dinner, Conservative Principles, and Tim Donnelly

Posted by Walter Myers III on May 11, 2014

Kudlow-cOkay, that’s a lot to mashup in one post, but they’re all tied together so bear with me. First, I am a now a board member for the Orange County Lincoln Club and I’m thrilled to have the opportunity to take a more active role in political activism that advances conservative principles. This is a great group of increasingly diverse people, and for those who think the Lincoln Club is some type of exclusive, monochromatic club for people of means, then you haven’t taken a serious look at the Lincoln Club of today. At heart, we are a group of activists and the Lincoln Club is taking a leading role in bringing a group of diverse experiences and backgrounds so that we can expand the principles established by our Founding Fathers that were continued, of course, by our sixteenth President Abraham Lincoln. The Lincoln Club is actively reaching out to the diverse communities of Orange County not only fully supported by leadership but a leadership that is active on the ground as well. The Lincoln Club will be a vanguard to keep Orange County a red county, bringing time-honored, transcendent, and tested principles that will appeal to people of all races, backgrounds, and creeds.

Larry Kudlow of CNBC was the headliner at the 53rd Annual Dinner last night, and he didn’t disappoint. Having been on Ronald Reagan’s executive staff, Kudlow was on hand for one of the greatest periods of economic growth our country has seen. The particular point he wanted to make was that if the United States is an economic powerhouse, then everyone in the world respects us. Being an economic power allowed us to defeat the former Soviet Union without firing a single shot. We were able to negotiate from a position of strength. Now, under the current president, we negotiate from a position of weakness with anemic 2% GDP growth, a shrinking military, and crushing regulations as well as taxes on successful American businesses that are the engines of economic growth. In short, Obama doesn’t get it and as long as he continues down his current path, we will never achieve robust economic growth, will never be strong in foreign policy negotiations, and the people who are hurting the most who can’t find jobs or have dropped out of the workforce entirely are being hurt by a president who is stuck on “income equality.” As Kudlow said beautifully, the best welfare is a job, and a rising tide lifts all boats. When America is strong, then people are working and prospering. Very simple.

Pivoting to Tim Donnelly, I am a supporter and love his libertarian leanings as a conservative who prides himself on being a “patriot, not politician.” That is Donnelly’s brand and one I hope he will stay true to in a world where people who become politicians seem to lose the very values they profess over a period of time. I have a couple of people in mind, but I won’t mention them here. What has bothered some quarters in the Republican Party are some of the polarizing (or rather perceived as polarizing) statements Donnelly has made, or votes he has taken as an Assemblyman. Most recently it has come out that he has tied his opponent Neel Kashkari to Islamic sharia law. That was not a good idea and certainly not the best of Donnelly. As well, there was also the recent legislation banning the sale of Confederate flags on state property, where the vote was 72-1 with Donnelly being the only vote against. I see Donnelly’s heart on this matter, but the ban was on state property and did not affect the sale on private property. So this was not a hill I think Donnelly should die on because it did not affect anyone’s liberty to sell away from public property, and the Confederate flag is a deeply offensive flag anyway. But on private property, I absolutely would defend the right for someone to display or sell it if that’s what they want.

The other larger issue with Donnelly is his stance on illegal immigration, and I think this is what has rankled many a Republican, as Donnelly has been noted as saying we have a war at our border with Mexico, and is seen as an “immigration hardliner” due to his comments about criminal activity by illegal immigrants as well as them not integrating into the community by bringing a Hispanic first mentality to America. The truth is more nuanced than this when you talk with Donnelly one on one, but the fact is perception is reality and the party will not attract Hispanics that way. If Donnelly wants to be successful in California, he needs to be, as Rand Paul has argued generally about the Republican Party, about addition instead of subtraction. Yes, Donnelly has the grassroots conservatives and Tea Party folks, but he also needs the establishment Republicans, independents, and Reagan Democrats as well. Being polarizing, or being perceived as polarizing, will not help him or the Republican Party to advance. Clearly, as Reagan has done, there is a way in which one can communicate staying true to conservative principles, but doing so in a winsome, attractive manner that grows the party and improves the perception of a party badly in need of good communicators. This is not an easy task and the vast majority of people don’t possess the necessary attributes, so we look for these attributes in principled elected (or would be elected) leaders. The media, the entertainment industry, and the academy are against every principle we hold dear, so we’re not getting any help from them as they actively work against us. My hope is that Donnelly, who is a very good man that I respect highly because I know his heart, will take this message to heart.

Posted in California | Tagged: , , | 12 Comments »

Meet me in the Middle

Posted by Brenda McCune on April 22, 2014

This is a quote from one of my favorite politicians, Bill Clinton.  Not because I stand with him ideologically, but because he was effective in creating consensus and getting things done.  Bill Clinton’s biggest fan is Bill Clinton, and he certainly would never let any ideology stand in his way of making a deal.  Not saying we should adopt that approach, but certainly something we could learn from.

The OCGOP held its monthly meeting last night, and the agenda included a variety of important endorsements for state and local offices.  Clearly the big events of the evening were consideration of the application from Tim Donnelly to obtain the county party endorsement in his race for California Governor, and Carlos Vasquez, seeking an endorsement from the party in his effort to unseat Loretta Sanchez.

Neither candidate was successful.

Mr. Vasquez is sorely underfunded for a race against a behemoth of a politician like Loretta Sanchez.  While everyone appreciated his sincerity and courage, he seemed unprepared to deal with this crowd.  Both Mr. Vasquez and his opponent who was in attendance were give an opportunity to respond to questions. (Jim Collum is a candidate endorsed by the American Independent party and did not seek the endorsement of the OCGOP, he complained that some glitch in getting his paperwork in on time prevented him from seeking this endorsement)  When asked why we should give them our endorsement, the candidates both dodged the question and gave their stump speech about why they are running.  Two more committee members asked similar questions, and it was only after Chairman Baugh pointed out their non-responsiveness, and Kermit Marsh asked them directly about endorsements and funds, did they finally get to the point of how viable they are that they should have the important endorsement of this particular body.  It was practically comical at times, with the lack of direct and concise responses and the effort to sidestep and obfuscate the issues that were clearly important to this body.  Can you really take this on?  Are you a serious candidate or is this just a haphazard game?

Loretta Sanchez is a serious contender.  Agreeably, a serious problem that the GOP would love to eliminate.  Are you the guy to get this job done?  That was the topic of discussion. Did they really think we were interested in their high gloss, soft shoe, sales pitch?

Andrew Blount is the mayor of Laguna Hills.  He is a nice man, with seemingly good intentions.  He has even less money than Tim Donnelly and does not have the cheerleading section, the “boots on the ground” that Donnelly has.  I am not sure why he is running.  He has $7,000.00 in his campaign that he has self funded.   He is a nice man and should save himself the grief of this race and just stay home.

Tim Donnelly came flanked by what appeared to be about 50 enthusiastic supporters.  The same rhetorical question should be posed to those people.  Did you really think, the elected OCGOP Central Committee members in this room were interested in your signs, or T-shirts, or your Whooping and hollering?  Next time the Tea Party desires to bring a candidate for the support of this group, please feel free to exercise some, or any, restraint and someone please take a lesson on decorum.  This is a room of politicos of varying experience, but certainly all committed to pursuing what is best for the party, our county and the state and federal governments overall.  The cheering and the interruptions were not only not persuasive, they were uncalled for and lended strength to the arguments against their candidate, in that this may not be the right time or the right candidate.

One thing that would have made Donnelly’s presentation more effective, is for all of those supporters present, to make some immediate financial contributions. They could have gotten on phones earlier in the day and worked on raising him some immediate money, rather than spending all the time they must have spent coordinating their T-shirts and signs.  Donnelly would have been more persuasive if he had come by himself, professional and dignified, just like every one of the many candidates we did endorse that evening.  With nearly 50 people there,  it is impossible not to wonder why or if, they have done or given anything at all to give this campaign some financial credibility, and prepare or strategize for this meeting, rather than just have an obvious plan to be disruptive.  Donnelly told us he had $11,000.00 in the bank.  If every enthusiastic supporter there put in $50.00 RIGHT THEN, he could certainly have boasted that he raised $2,500.00 THIS EVENING. That would have been impressive and might have helped to convert some believers to their arguments about all the faith they have in their grassroots and ground swell.

I get it,  Meg Whitman, blah, blah, blah, money doesn’t win races, blah, blah.

A campaign is not a religious exercise requiring a vow of poverty either.  Money is necessary.  Money is required.  Donnelly also acknowledged that more than $100k is still needed.  I do not recall if that is debt from past expenditures or is needed for future printing projects, but clearly the campaign is not even realizing it’s own goals.  If there were more effort in this energetic group, put behind fund raising, coupled with their enthusiasm, certainly committee members like me, who came with a truly open mind, could be persuaded to get on the band wagon.  There is an enormous problem with credibility when there is such a disparity between reality and necessity.

Chairman Baugh confirmed that Jerry Brown has a war chest of $20million.  Twenty-million dollars.

The probation thing also doesn’t help, and Donnelly never even mentioned it.  It is out there, it will have to be addressed.  Ignoring the elephant in the room will not make it go away.

Although Mr. Donnelly, was polished and articulate, he was condescending and played to his crowd.  He was there to seek the endorsement of the committee, and frankly, it appeared he planned on not getting it.  Donnelly and his followers left the room as soon as the votes pertaining to him were complete. They were indignant and noisy, and continued to make  noise and commotion as they exited a meeting that was still in progress. The meeting was in progress in fact, to honor the hard work of our great volunteers.  Well played Donnelly camp.  Disrespect is not usually the way to win anyone’s support.  Volunteers are the heart of what we do, and in general the volunteers who are honored at this meeting are not people who just discovered the conservative movement last week, but generally have long histories of service.  Shame on you for such glaring disrespect of these people and the process.

The chronic defensiveness of the Tea Party continues to hurt their message.  Their premise is that they are right about all of their platforms and disenfranchised from the “establishment” without any access or appreciation for their enormous “grassroots” efforts. They came to the “establishment” and acted like jerks.  That is not inviting or attractive in anyway. Rodney Dangerfield got no respect because he went around saying it all the time.  You get what you give usually.

I WANT to support Tim Donnelly.  I WANT to believe that there is a tremendous ground swell effort in play, that grassroots are taking hold, that voters are fed up and they want change, BUT, if the captains of the grassroots ship, keep coming to the party with a chip on their shoulder about how disenfranchised they are, this movement will sink itself AND the party.  I hope that doesn’t happen, but based upon the display last night, I can’t help but feel we are all doomed, to eventually live in a completely and hopelessly blue state, in a completely and hopelessly blue nation.  We all remember where that one party experiment was last tried and failed.

Meet me in the middle, was about compromise, it was about reaching out, and if Bill Clinton was anything, it was persuasive.  We need people from the base and the Tea Party to develop attitudes of meeting in the middle. The ideaologues and dogma are a problem, the obvious one, but what was evidenced last night is both greater and easier to fix.  It was about respect.  Donnelly fans showed up, moderately hostile, anticipating to be disrespected and not to gain the endorsement they alleged to seek.  They left, fulfilling their negative self prophecy, not more enlightened in how their own behavior contributed to this.  I came with an open mind. I want to believe that there is a David who can kill Jerry Brown’s Goliath.  In the course of the meeting, though, they lost me.  Misguided efforts and the prevailing attitude were too prevalent to overlook.

Republican party voter registration is now down to 28%.  The increase in No Party Preference voters continues, with no end in sight.  We are almost tied, the GOP and NPP for voter registration.  Sad.  Our platform is that limited government would provide increased economic freedom to all, and as such, increased liberty to all.  Is that really so hard? Is there any concept or ideal that is more important than that?  That is our middle.  It is our foundation.  It is right. It works. If we can not figure out how to meet THERE, we continue to jeopardize our future.  I sincerely hope that both Tim Donnelly and Carlos Vasquez continue to work hard, step up and clean up their game, so that we see viable candidates to carry our message in November after the June primary.

If the Donnelly supporters are serious about truly helping him get this endorsement prior to November, it would behoove them to put a proverbial shoulder to the plow in good faith. There are always openings for Volunteers in the GOTV efforts at OCGOP.  Join us.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Why Neel Kashkari is a Non-Starter for this Fiscal and Social Conservative

Posted by Craig P. Alexander on February 10, 2014

Another entrant into the California Governor’s race, Neel Kashkari, is right out of the play book of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Meg Whitman – a rich businessman who has never held elective office and is socially liberal but claims to be a fiscal conservative. Mr. Kashkari, while likely a very nice gentleman and a great private industry success story, is not a candidate this fiscal and social conservative can support.

When the former Bush administration official entered the California Governor’s race he proclaimed that his emphasis for the Governor’s race is the high poverty rate in California and improving education. The successful Republican businessman has taken a position in favor of abortion and homosexual marriage. One of the chief creators and implementers of the Bush Administration’s Troubled Asset Recovery Program (TARP), he defends that program because he claims the government was repaid all of the loaned funds plus interest. In my opinion, on TARP, Mr. Kashkari seriously misses the point of fiscal conservatives’ objections to that program, some of which I will cover below.

Undoubtedly other voices in the Republican Party will soon be lecturing conservatives like myself that social issues are losers for Republicans in California and we need a successful businessperson who is “socially liberal” to lead California and the CRP out of its woes.  With all due respect we have heard this tune before and it has only been a disaster for California and the Republican Party.  This same tune was played to us in 2003 for the recall of Gov. Gray Davis.  We were told Tom McClintock could not win the Governorship so we all must get behind successful showman Arnold Schwarzenegger.  While Arnold’s early years showed promise (repealing the car tax which he later raised again), right after he was re-elected in 2006 he took a hard turn to the left and gave us things like the carbon cap and trade laws that are crippling business in California.

He also joined then Attorney General Jerry Brown by refusing to defend Proposition 8, which resulted in the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to allow homosexual marriage in California not because the people voted for it, or due to the courts actually finding it was proper on the merits, but solely due to the Governor’s (and Attorney General’s) refusal to do their job and defend the law.  This has severely weakened the initiative system in California as it allows the Governor and Attorney General to veto the people’s voice by simply refusing to defend a federal constitutional challenge to an initiative that the people voted yes on.  I lay this partially at Mr. Schwarzenegger’s feet.

The next time we heard this piped piper tune of “we need to run a rich social liberal Republican” was Meg Whitman’s run for Governor against Jerry Brown four years ago. Although Ms. Whitman is a very nice person (I met her a couple of times) and she is a rich and successful Republican, she had never held elective office and she is pro-abortion.  Her views on homosexual marriage seem to be both yes and no.  It is my understanding that she also supported TARP.  Ms. Whitman was rejected by voters who were tired of years of pseudo Republican Arnold as Governor in favor of re-tread Jerry “Governor Moon Beam” Brown.

And here we are again with another candidate right out of the Arnold / Meg mold.  We are being told take our sincerely held beliefs on social issues (and even fiscal issues); ignore them and recent history to support and vote for Mr. Kashkari.

For this conservative activist my answer is No Thank You.  Obviously as you have gathered Mr. Kashkari and I differ on abortion and homosexual marriage.  And while I realize the Courts have instituted homosexual marriage in California by judicial fiat and abortion is regularly made more and more legal and taxpayer supported by the Democratic legislature (and current Governor) that does not equate to any obligation for me to support a candidate that also believes in these policies.  There is no reasonable expectation that a Governor Kashkari would act any differently than the Arnold or Moon Beam.

However Mr. Kashkari’s actions as a Bush Administration Treasury official and his defense of his role in the TARP program, in my opinion, place him in at least a very questionable category on fiscal issues.  The TARP program should be called the Bail Out Wall Street Big Bankers program.  It put the federal government in the corporate boardrooms as an owner – a place it should never be in in a free enterprise economic system.

In addition, the companies the TARP program bailed out were, for the most part, companies that made very bad business decisions and should have been allowed to fail.  Even with TARP bailouts, many, many employees of these companies (who did not make the bad decisions for their employers) lost their jobs anyway.  Finally these big banks now have cash in their coffers but they are generally not lending to small businesses who find capital still very difficult to come by almost six years after the 2008 crisis.  Regular consumers also are still having a harder time obtaining loans, etc.  In short TARP was great for Wall Street but not for Main Street where the rest of us live.  Many on the left also opposed TARP which could hurt Mr. Kashkari’s prospects with voters in June.

This is the bailout program Mr. Kashkari is so proud of and is his only governmental claim to fame.  To me this does not make him qualified for the Governor’s office.

In the June “top two” primary election, we will most likely be given the choice of Governor Jerry Brown, Assemblyman Tim Donnelly, Neel Kashkari and now Mayor Andrew Blount of Laguna Hills plus two or three more minor candidates.  Of course a late entry by another more established Republican candidate like Congressman Darrell Issa would up end the race – he has money, a very good track record, good name ID, etc.  But so far neither Mr. Issa nor any other well-known Republican has said they are even interested in entering the race.

Can Mr. Kashkari best Mr. Donnelly and now Andrew Blount in June to be one of the “top two” for the run off in November?  Yes he may do so.  But it is not “inevitable.”  First – voters in the “top two” primary vote for one of all the candidates – not for which Republican or Democrat they like.  Voters who like Jerry Brown over Tim Donnelly are going to vote for Jerry Brown not Mr. Kashkari.  That leaves voters who do not like Mr. Brown which will include most Republicans and many decline to state voters.  I will not predict how all Republicans will vote.  But I will predict that many fiscal and social conservative Republicans like me will choose Mr. Donnelly as more in line with their beliefs on public policy than Mr. Kashkari plus Mr. Donnelly’s experience at holding elected office.  I do not yet know enough about Mr. Blount (who describes himself as a Libertarian) to give any opinions about what voters will be attracted to him.  A lot will depend on how Mr. Donnelly, Mr. Kashkari and Mr. Blount conduct themselves on the campaign trial.

As for Decline to State voters – many are former Republicans who left the party for one reason or another.  For those who felt the party was too conservative – Mr. Kashkari might be their cup of tea.  But for those who felt the CRP was not consistent in presenting candidates and elected officials whose positions and decisions adhere to the Party’s own platform – it is illogical to think they would vote for Mr. Kashkari.   Some will vote for Tim Donnelly, some may vote for Andrew Blount and some may just skip that part of the ballot.

So I would say it is a toss up as to whether or not Mr. Kashkari will face Governor Brown in November.   But my vote in June will not be for Mr. Kashkari – that tune I have heard before and is not a dance I chose to join in.

Am I supporting Assemblyman Donnelly?  I have not given him any money or endorsed him  (or any other candidate at this point).  That may change, as we get closer to June.  Also, I am a practicing attorney and a Republican activist for limited and constitutional government.  I am not on any candidates’ payroll and I do not earn a living as a political consultant.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Moorlach: “…OC Political blog announced my intentions…”

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 9, 2013

This came over the wire from the office of Supervisor John Moorlach on Tuesday…

MOORLACH UPDATE — Huffington Post — March 5, 2013

Lamar Alexander, when he ran for U.S. President, would frequently say, “Aim for the top, there’s more room there.”  So, that’s what I’m doing.  If you want to get a good sense of the internal debate I’m currently enjoying, then the piece in the Huffington Post below should be of interest.  The writer does an excellent job of laying out the land. 

As you read the piece, let me clarify one thing.  I am not seeking publicity.  I had been keeping my phone calls so confidential, that when the OC Political blog announced my intentions, I had to call an emergency meeting to inform my staff of what I was considering.  And now I have to call friends with an apology that the news leaked before I had a chance to call and discuss the matter with them first.  Should someone else announce their intention to run for Governor, and it makes sense for me to support that person, then I’m out of the hunt.  And then I’ll consider other options.   After you read the piece, know that I am still moving forward with my decision process to aim for the top. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, California | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

Orange County Supervisor Exploring Run For Governor

Posted by Chris Emami on February 13, 2013

Last night I became aware of a developing story out of Sacramento with Orange County ties. It appears that Orange County Supervisor John Moorlach is currently exploring a run for Governor of California, He has been rumored to be up in Sacramento within the last week looking into what kind of support that he would get if he were to jump into the race. Currently the only candidate that has officially announced for the post is Assemblyman Tim Donnelly. In my opinion Moorlach would be an infinitely better choice for Republicans than Donnelly.

Moorlach got his start in Orange County politics by losing in a race against Bob Citron for the Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector position in 1994. After the County went bankrupt in December 1994 Moorlach was appointed to the position after three months by the County Board of Supervisors. He served for 11 years as the Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector before making a run for Supervisor (2nd District succeeding Jim Silva) in 2006 and defeating Stanton Councilmember David Shawver.

Supervisor Moorlach has a more extensive biography up on his Supervisorial website:

The Honorable John M. W. Moorlach, C.P.A., is the Second District Supervisor on the Orange County Board of Supervisors, representing the cities of Costa Mesa, Cypress, Huntington Beach, La Palma, Los Alamitos, Newport Beach, Seal Beach, Stanton, and a portion of Buena Park and Fountain Valley.

Supervisor Moorlach currently serves on several boards, commissions, and committees, including: the Orange County Transportation Authority, the Orange County Vector Control District, the Orange County Local Agency Formation Commission, the Orange County Criminal Justice Coordinating Council (Chairman), the Orange County Juvenile Justice Coordinating Council, the Orange County Ending Homelessness Commission (Chairman), the Newport Bay Watershed Executive Committee (Chairman), the Children and Families Commission of Orange County (alternate), the National Association of Counties, the Orange County Council of Governments (alternate), the Southern California Association of Governments (alternate), the Southern California Regional Airport Authority, the Southern California Water Committee, the South Orange County Watershed Management Area Executive Committee, and the California State Association of Counties Board of Directors, including its Executive Committee and the Urban Counties Caucus (representing the most populated counties in California).

Prior to being elected to the Board of Supervisors in 2006, he served as the Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector for nearly twelve years. Supervisor Moorlach has the distinction of having predicted the largest local government investment portfolio loss and the second largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. He has been a voice on major fiscal issues facing the county, state, and the nation. He is a noted and respected long-time advocate for public employee pension reform and serves on the California Foundation for Fiscal Responsibility Advisory Board.

Prior to serving as Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector, Moorlach was Vice President of Balser, Horowitz, Frank & Wakeling, an Accountancy Corporation, and was the administrative partner of its Costa Mesa office. He served on numerous nonprofit and industry related boards during his eighteen years in public practice and was a frequent writer and speaker on financially related topics.

Moorlach is a California history enthusiast and served as Vice President of the Gold Discovery to Statehood California (1848-1850) Sesquicentennial Foundation Board. He has photographed nearly all of the State’s historical landmarks, a program under the auspices of the State Historical Resources Commission. Consequently, he has visited every county in the state, some on numerous occasions, and has enjoyed multiple drives on Highway One, from San Diego County to Crescent City and beyond.

Moorlach graduated from California State University in Long Beach in 1977 and passed the C.P.A. exam in 1978. He completed his studies for the Certified Financial Planner designation in 1987. He earned a Certificate in Public Finance from the University of Delaware, Division of Continuing Education in 1995, the Certificate of Achievement in Public Plan Policy (CAPPP) in Employee Pensions in 1999 and the Trustees Masters Program in 2003 through the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans, and the New Supervisors Training Institute in 2007 from California State University in Sacramento in cooperation with their Center for California Studies.

As far as I can tell, no other news agency or blog has run anything on this, but hopefully over the coming weeks some more information will become available.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, California, Orange County Board of Supervisors | Tagged: , , , | 19 Comments »

Atlas PAC May 2012 Newsletter & Voter Guide

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 18, 2012

This came over the wire from Atlas PAC on Wednesday (and was re-sent to us by a helpful reader yesterday)…

Atlas PAC Newsletter & Voter Guide   May 16, 2012 
In This Issue
Calendar of Events
Candidate Forum Photos
Stop the Special Interest Money Now Event
June Primary Voter Guide
Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s Show

Calendar of Events

Stop the Special Interest Money Now Reception

May 23, 2012

Irvine, CA

Del Mar Day at the Races

July 28, 2012

San Diego, CA

The Atlas PAC Board
Lee M. Lowrey
ChairmanChandra Chell
Vice ChairmanDave BartelsJohn Draper

Mary DreyerKurt English
Kathryn FeatherJoe Ludlow

Jeff Mathews

Walter Myers III

Ben Pugh

Stephanie Olsen

Sarah Soss

Mike Tripp

Candidate ForumCandidate Forum 98aCandidate Forum 46aCandidate Forum 45a

Candidate Forum 30a

Candidate Forum 48a

Candidate Forum 103a

Candidate Forum 70a

Candidate Forum 94

Candidate Forum 68a

Like us on Facebook

 Dear,

With the June Primary Election just around the corner, Atlas PAC has updated our list of endorsed candidates for local, state and national elected office.  As always, we will continue to present to our membership candidates that practice our core values of limited government, free market, low taxation, and individual liberty.
Join us this month as we host a fundraising reception for the Stop the Special Interest Money Now Initiative featuring columnist Steve Greenhut and Chapman Law School Professor John Eastman.    Please mark your calendar for our upcoming events and we hope to see you soon.

Atlas PAC Mission Statement

The Atlas PAC mission is to create an environment of business professionals that believe in the ideals of limited government, free market enterprise, low taxation, and individual liberty to associate, network, and socialize with like-minded individuals. Through this association, the Atlas PAC supports like-minded candidates and issues through its monetary and political support.

StopSpecialInterest v4A

June Primary Voter Guide
National Ted Cruz – U.S. Senate, TXJeff Flake – U.S. Senate, AZ

George Allen – U.S. Senate, VA

Josh Mandell – U.S. Senate, OH

Richard Mourdock – U.S. Senate, IN

Jason Chaffetz – US Congress, UT

Eric Cantor – US Congress, VA

Paul Ryan – US Congress, WI

Allen West – US Congress, FL

Michele Bachmann – US Congress, MN

California

 

Tom McClintock – U.S. Congress District 4

Tony Strickland – U.S. Congress District 26

Ed Royce – U.S. Congress District 39

John Webb – US Congress District 45

Jerry Hayden – US Congress District 46

Gary DeLong – US Congress District 47

Dana Rohrabacher – US Congress District 48

Darrell Issa – US Congress District 49

Duncan Hunter, Jr. – US Congress District 50

Bill Emerson – State Senate District 23

Bob Huff – State Senate District 29

Jeff Miller – State Senate District 31

Mimi Walters – State Senate District 37

Tim Donnelly – State Assembly District 33

Mike Morrell – State Assembly District 40

Curt Hagman – State Assembly District 55

Eric Linder – State Assembly District 60

Joe Ludwig – State Assembly District 61

Chris Norby – State Assembly District 65

Craig Huey – State Assembly District 66

Phil Paule – State Assembly District 67

Don Wagner – State Assembly District 68

Diane Harkey – State Assembly District 73

Allan Mansoor – State Assembly District 74

Rocky Chavez – State Assembly District 76

Carl DeMaio – San Diego Mayor

Proposition 28 – No

Proposition 29 – No

Orange County   

Janet Nguyen – OC Supervisor, District 1

Robert Hammond- Orange County Board of Education, Area 1
Ken Williams- Orange County Board of Education, Area 3
Greg Sebourn – Fullerton City Council

Ethan Temianka – Mesa Water District

Orange County Republican Party Central Committee

55th AD – Tim Shaw, Jim Domen, Desare Ferraro

65th AD – Baron Night, Shawn Nelson, Greg Sebourn, Steve Hwangbo, Henry Charoen, Pat Shuff

68th AD – Jon Dumitru, Ken Williams, Lynn Schott, Walter Myers III, Mark Bucher, Denis Bilodeau

69th AD – Thomas Gordon, Charles Hart, Robert Hammond, Lupe Moreno, Cuong Sinh Cao

72nd AD – Janet Nguyen, Dean Grose, Matthew Harper, Mark McCurdy, Dennis Catron, John Briscoe

73rd AD – Chandra Chell, Mike Munzing, Mary Young, Tony Beall, Linda Barnes, Greg Woodard, Jon Fleischman

74th AD – Pick among the following:  John Draper, Jeff Mathews, Allan Bartlett, John Warner, Bill Dunlap, Scott Baugh, Scott Peotter, Rhonda Rohrabacher, Emily Sanford, Christina Shea, Don Hansen, T.J. Fuentes

Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s SoCal Insider Show
Walter Myers III Participates in Occupy Vs. Tea Party Debate
walter - rick reiff show
Click to watch video
Atlas PAC Director Walter Myers III debates with an Occupy Los Angeles activist.  Watch as they discuss what their protest movements represent as well as their respective sides’ take on taxes, government, and capitalism.  Decide for yourself who the clear winner is for this debate.
About Atlas PAC

Atlas is a politically based membership organization made up of business, political, and community professionals who share a passion for free enterprise, limited government, reduced government regulatory burdens, low taxation, and individual liberty. Atlas furthers its ideals by funding candidates and causes who aggressively advocate the values of Atlas.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Fullerton, Mesa Consolidated Water District, Orange County Board of Education, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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