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Posts Tagged ‘Sukhee Kang’

Mansoor Jumps Into 2nd Supervisorial Race

Posted by Chris Emami on November 20, 2013

allanmansoorAssemblyman Allan Mansoor confirmed longstanding rumors last night by officially jumping into the 2nd Supervisorial District race to succeed the termed out John Moorlach.

First of all, I would argue that Mansoor is actually the front-runner in this race, having been on the ballot before when running for Assembly, as well as during his unusually high-profile tenure as Mayor of Costa Mesa. Michelle Steel, his chief opponent, may have more money but just recently moved into the district and will likely face numerous carpetbagger accusations.  Mansoor takes Steel head-on in his announcement email: “My decision-making process started a few months ago, when I was approached by many residents and local leaders who suggested I run to replace John [Moorlach]. One of their biggest concerns was that the only major candidate for this office recently moved to Orange County from LA for the sole purpose of running for Orange County Supervisor in hopes of furthering her ambition of running for Congress if/when Congressman Dana Rorhabacher retires.

Mansoor has also proven that he can defeat candidates with gobs of cash, after having defeated a challenge by Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle in 2012 despite her campaign’s vast financial resources from many wealthy contributors, including Charles Munger Jr.

Steel will also likely face accusations of supporting Larry Agran ally and Democrat Sukhee Kang in a past election.

This is the first of what I expect to be a couple of big announcements in the coming weeks with John Moorlach set to officially announce his candidacy for Congress in the very near future. Mansoor sent out an e-mail announcing the following:

Friends:

As you probably know, I’ve been thinking about running for Orange County Supervisor for several months. I want you to be among the first to know that I’ve decided to run.

John Moorlach has been a great voice for the 2nd District. As a longtime Costa Mesa resident and the County Treasurer who helped Orange County recover from the bankruptcy, he has very strong ties to our community, and his thoughtful and reasoned approach has been an asset in the county. I’m sorry to see term limits force him from office.

My decision-making process started a few months ago, when I was approached by many residents and local leaders who suggested I run to replace John. One of their biggest concerns was that the only major candidate for this office recently moved to Orange County from LA for the sole purpose of running for Orange County Supervisor in hopes of furthering her ambition of running for Congress if/when Congressman Dana Rorhabacher retires.

I’ve always been the first to admit that fundraising isn’t my greatest strength, and even though I’ve always raised enough to be be competitive, I’ve been outspent in every election I’ve run. This campaign won’t be any different, especially against a candidate whose greatest strength is her ability to raise money from interests outside the district.

So this wasn’t an easy decision. It required careful deliberation and long talks with family, friends, and supporters.

Ironically, this campaign reminds me of my first campaign for city council. In 2002, I ran against entrenched establishment incumbents because a group of people from my neighborhood felt like city hall didn’t care about what was happening in our community. While everyone wanted to improve city hall, no one wanted to run. I, somewhat reluctantly, stepped up because someone had to. Ever since, I’ve been happy and grateful for the opportunity to make a difference in the community I grew up in.

Now, more than 10 years later, the community I love has chosen me to represent them not only for two terms on the City Council, but also for two terms in the State Assembly. The easiest path would be to cruise to reelection to a third term in the Assembly, but no one else is ready or willing to stand up and fight to make sure that our community has local representation on the Board of Supervisors.

It will be a lot of work. But I’m ready for it, and I hope to have your help and support. You can start by making a financial contribution by clicking here. Whatever you can contribute, whether it’s $10, $100, or $1000 will help. If you’d like to volunteer, or contact your neighbors, or host a coffee, let me know by replying to this email.

With gratitude,

Allan

P.S. If you would rather mail a check instead of making an online donation by clicking here, you can send a check to Mansoor for Supervisor 2014, 2973 Harbor Blvd #571, Costa Mesa, CA 92626.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Poll Results in CD 45: Spitzer Is The Frontrunner

Posted by Chris Emami on July 2, 2013

This morning Jon Fleischman posted the results of a poll conducted by Lewis Consulting Group, that showed the favorables/unfavorables of some potential candidates along with results of some hypothetical matches. The results were not what I expected to see, with what appears to be a wide open race amongst a few front-runners. I talked to John Lewis this morning after the poll was released and he had this to say, “The goal with this poll was to try and best replicate predicted 2014 turnout. This is clearly a wide open race and results will largely depend on who decides to run.”

200px-Spitzer_portrait_wiki
You can view the entire poll by clicking CD45-Crosstab-Tables-I.

Lets start by taking a look at the raw numbers for favorables vs unfavorables for each candidate in the running, in order to use a single number to represent favorability, I am taking the percentage that represents favorables and subtracting the percentage that represents unfavorables in order to create a net favorability ranking system. Here are the rankings based 0n this net favorability:

(R) Todd Spitzer +25% (OC Supervisor)
(R) Ed Royce +20% (Congressman)
(D) Sukhee Kang +13% (Former Irvine Mayor)
(R) Mimi Walter +13% (State Senator)
(D) Steve Young +12%  (Perennial Dem Candidate)
(R) Gary Miller +10% (Congressman)
(R) Don Wagner +10% (State Assemblyman)
(R) Scott Baugh +8% (Chairman of OCGOP)
(D) Beth Krom +4%
(D) Barack Obama -28% (This was simply his approval rating, I am fairly certain he has no intention of seeking this seat)

The fact that Todd Spitzer had the highest net favorability was not especially surprising to me because a lot of my non-political friends are aware of some of his public safety initiatives that he has worked on. I am most surprised by Steve Young having a 12% net favorability rating, although my instinct states that perhaps some football fans got confused on this one.

This data does not also take into account that some other potential candidates are looming out there, including but not limited to Steven Choi (Current Irvine Mayor), John Moorlach (OC Supervisor), and some of the wealthy private sector individuals that could self-fund a campaign. On the Dem side I hear rumblings of Irvine Councilmember Larry Agran jumping into this race and I would argue that he would be the Democrat most likely to advance to November.

My favorite part of the poll was the hypothetical match-ups that were polled including the following scenarios:

Mimi Walters vs. Gary Miller vs. Beth Krom

Walters 25.0%
Krom 21.3%
Miller 21.0%

This matchup is interesting because Walters is definitely in this race and I have heard from more than a couple of insiders that Gary Miller is strongly considering a move back to Orange County to run for this seat due to the fact that his current seat is one that could very easily go blue in 2016. A 4% gap is not very hard to overcome especially when you consider margin of error of any poll.

Mimi Walters vs. Ed Royce vs. Beth Krom

Royce 25.7%
Krom 22.3%
Walters 20.3%

I am not surprised that Royce is leading in this matchup due to the fact that he is a sitting Congressman who has higher name ID than Gary Miller in Orange County. The surprising part is that Walters is within striking distance of him and could beat him in a head-to-head matchup.

Mimi Walters vs. Todd Spitzer vs. Beth Krom

Spitzer 29.0%
Krom 22.0%
Walters 19.7%

Wow!!!!! This result on its own shows me that Todd Spitzer can have this seat if he wants it.

Mimi Walters vs. Ed Royce vs. Beth Krom

Walters 26.7%
Krom 23.0%
Wagner 15.7%

Don Wagner is my personal favorite of all the candidates considered in this poll but these numbers look to be a steep hill to climb in a hypothetical matchup that includes Walters.

Mimi Walters vs. Steve Young vs. Beth Krom vs. Sukhee Kang

Walters 41.0%
Krom 10.3%
Young 8.7%
Kang 7.3%

These numbers show that a Democrat winning this seat is highly unlikely. I believe that Larry Agran would be able to finish ahead of all of the rest of these folks in CD 45 on the Dem side.

Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments »

Half are Republicans, Half are Democrats, and Other Random Stats on Orange County’s Directly-Elected Mayors

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 20, 2012

The New Republican Irvine City Council Majority:
Councilman Jeff Lalloway, Councilwoman-Elect Christina Shea, and Mayor-Elect Steven Choi

Partisan Breakdown

Since 2004, Republicans have held a 4-2 advantage among Orange County’s directly-elected mayors:

  • Anaheim: Tom Tait (since 2010), Curt Pringle (2002-2010)
  • Garden Grove: Bill Dalton (2004-2012)
  • Orange: Carolyn Cavecche (2006-2012), Mark Murphy (2000-2006)
  • Westminster: Margie Rice (Republican 2004-2012; Democrat 2000-2004)

The two Democrats were:

  • Irvine: Sukhee Kang (2008-2012), Beth Krom (2004-2008)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (since 1994)

Anaheim’s Tait has Orange County’s only four-year mayoral seat, so he was not up for election this year. Major changes were in store with three mayors termed out (Garden Grove’s Dalton, Irvine’s Kang, and Orange’s Cavecche) and one mayor voluntarily retiring (Westminster’s Rice), leaving only Santa Ana’s Pulido seeking re-election this year.

While Steven Choi captured the Irvine mayoral seat for the Republicans, Bruce Broadwater of Garden Grove and Tita Smith of Orange captured their respective mayor’s posts for the Democrats.

The Republicans are:

  • Anaheim: Tom Tait (term limit: 2018)
  • Irvine: Steven Choi (term limit: 2016)
  • Westminster: Tri Ta (no term limit)

The Democrats are:

  • Garden Grove: Bruce Broadwater (term limit: 2020)
  • Orange: Tita Smith (term limit: 2018)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (term limit: 2020)

It could be worse though, like the 2000-2002 line-up of directly-elected mayors, which had Orange’s Mark Murphy as the sole Republican:

  • Anaheim: Tom Daly (1992-2002)
  • Garden Grove: Bruce Broadwater (1994-2004)
  • Irvine: Larry Agran (2000-2004)
  • Orange: Mark Murphy (2000-2006)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (since 1994)
  • Westminster: Margie Rice (2000-2004 as a Democrat; 2004-2012 as a Republican)

2012 Demographics

An odd sidenote about 2012: in an election that saw Asian Americans vote 3-1 for Barack Obama, Orange County’s Asian American directly-elected mayors went from consisting of one Democrat (Kang) to consisting of two Republicans (Choi and Ta).

While Cavecche was replaced by Smith in Orange, women lost ground as Rice was replaced by Ta in Westminster.

Term Limits

Anaheim, Garden Grove, and Santa Ana have eight-year term limits (two four-year terms in Anaheim and four two-year terms in Garden Grove and Santa Ana).  Orange has a six-year term limit (three two-year terms).  Irvine has a four-year term limit (two two-year terms).  Westminster has no term limits (two-year terms).

Santa Ana’s mayoral term limit is the newest, having been adopted this month.  Irvine’s mayoral term limit is the oldest, taking effect in 1991.

Anaheim has the toughest term limit on Councilmembers who want to be Mayor.  A first-term Councilmember running for Mayor may only serve one mayoral term.  A second-term Councilmember may not run for Mayor.

Excluding Westminster’s non-limit, Garden Grove and Irvine have the most generous term limit for Councilmembers who want to be Mayor.  In both of those cities, when Councilmembers term out, they can run for Mayor, and when they term out as Mayor, they can run for Council, in a never-ending merry-go-round.

Age

After the 2012 election, the mayoral median age is 60.5 with a mean age is 59.3:

  • Garden Grove: Bruce Broadwater (74)
  • Irvine: Steven Choi (68)
  • Orange: Tita Smith (65)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (56)
  • Anaheim: Tom Tait (54)
  • Westminster: Tri Ta (39)

Before the 2012 election, the mayoral median age was 58 with a mean age of 62.3:

  • Westminster: Margie Rice (83)
  • Garden Grove: Bill Dalton (69)
  • Irvine: Sukhee Kang (60)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (56)
  • Anaheim: Tom Tait (54)
  • Orange: Carolyn Cavecche (52)

The biggest age change was in Westminster, where Margie Rice was replaced by Tri Ta, who is 44 years younger than her.  The smallest age change (excluding Tait and Pulido, for obvious reasons) was in Garden Grove, where Bill Dalton was replaced by Bruce Broadwater, who is 5 years older than him.

While Westminster had a dramatic age decrease for mayor, Garden Grove, Irvine, and Orange all had age increases for mayor.

The Democrat median and mean ages both increased from 58 to 65.

The Republican median age decreased from 61.5 to 54 while the Republican mean age decreased from 64.5 to 53.7.

Posted in Anaheim, Garden Grove, Irvine, Orange, Santa Ana, Westminster | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 General Election Prediction: 45th Congressional District

Posted by Chris Emami on September 11, 2012

This race in the primary pitted Tea Party darling John Webb, sitting U.S. Congressman John Campbell, and Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang for the right to advance to November. The results were extremely one-sided with John Campbell

United States Representative; District 45

  • John Campbell, Republican ………. 54,346 votes 51.0%
  • Sukhee Kang, Democratic ………. 35,182 votes 33.0%
  • John Webb, Republican ………. 17,014 votes 16.0%

As you can see from the results posted to the “Smart Voter” website despite having a Republican opponent Congressman Campbell still managed to break 50% in the primary.

Here is the map of the 45th Congressional District:

As always thanks to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their map.

I will give Sukhee Kang credit for running 5% above Democratic registration. However, with 22% of voters registered as DTS Kang did not have a great showing in the whole scheme of things. Also remember that Democrats tried the Irvine Councilmember strategy back in 2010 running Beth Krom against John Campbell. Krom did not have a great showing either:

United States Representative; District 48

  • John Campbell, Republican ………. 145,481 votes 60.0%
  • Beth Krom, Democratic ………. 88,465 votes 36.4%
  • Mike Binkley, Libertarian ………. 8,773 votes 3.6%

Kang is from Irvine, the largest city in the 45th Congressional District but unfortunately for him John Campbell also is from Irvine.

With a 20% Asian population in CD 45 you could make the argument that Kang will be one of the more competitive candidates in years. I would argue that party affiliation is more important when running for partisan office.

The fundraising tells a similar story with John Campbell at over $1,000,000 cash on hand after the primary election and Sukhee Kang having under $250,000 cash on hand. This is over a 4:1 ratio for the sitting Congressman.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

John Campbell

Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

CD 45 Mailbox: Another Campbell Positive Piece Arrives

Posted by Chris Emami on May 10, 2012

Congressman John Campbell had another mailer that arrived at my house today. He is clearly taking this race very seriously. As of today I have yet to hear of a piece from either of his opponents John Webb or Sukhee Kang. However, Kang does have the most signs up in the district as of earlier this morning.

The mail piece was an 8.5 x 11 that folds out into an 8.5 x 22 piece. I have scanned the piece into four different files:


Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 45th Congressional District

Posted by Chris Emami on April 11, 2012

I already know that I am going to get flack for my prediction in this race since a lot of people have a beef with John Campbell. For the record this is actually the Congressional seat that now represents me, with Anaheim Hills being drawn in by the redistricting commission.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

Republicans have a 17 point advantage in this seat along with a conservative leaning DTS crowd that is just 6 points away from making the Democrats totally irrelevant in this seat. (Democrats 28, DTS 22).

What used to be CD 48 moved a lot further north eliminating Newport Beach and picking up Orange/Anaheim Hills among other changes. This seat is a pretty safe Republican seat on paper despite the fact that Barack Obama came within 4 points of McCain back in 2008.

Incumbent Congressman John Campbell is currently representing a good portion of this district in CD 48. Which will make him the clear front-runner despite a couple of challengers taking him on this election, including another Republican.

His challengers include Sukhee Kang the Mayor of Irvine who is running as a Democrat. This is the second time that a member of the Irvine City Council has run against Campbell after Beth Krom ran back in 2010.

The other challenger is John Webb a Tea Party Republican who opted to run with the (R) next to his name as opposed to (NPP). He is listed as a small business owner on the ballot.

The factors at play- John Campbell is the incumbent and has represented the majority of this district thus boosting his name ID. His ability to send out mail and fund a comprehensive campaign make him the front-runner to finish first on the ballot in June despite the Republican vote being split.

John Webb seems like he is a good guy and he has a backing of some tea party folks behind him. His fundraising numbers just don’t lead me to believe he can get his message out to enough voters to get into the top 2. Had he listed himself as (NPP) on the ballot I think he might have been able to finish ahead of Sukhee Kang.

Sukhee Kang despite being wiped out by Kindee Durkee has name ID in Irvine, which is a good-sized part of CD 45.  He is also the only Democrat on the ballot. Based on his name ID and party affiliation alone I believe that he will advance to November.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

John Campbell & Sukhee Kang

Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

Analysis On Campbell Missed Endorsement Last Night

Posted by Chris Emami on February 21, 2012

As you can see from the post written by my esteemed colleague Chris Nguyen, in a major surprise Congressman John Campbell failed to get the endorsement of the OC GOP.
Congressman John Campbell, challenged on the left by Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang and on the right by Businessman John Webb
I along with many others in attendance last night was shocked by the results of the vote, with John Campbell falling just 1 vote short of the endorsement. John Webb who is also running for this seat in the 45th Congressional District was also present in an effort to try to block the endorsement.

This particular endorsement began with John Campbell giving a speech on why he deserved the endorsement of the OC GOP. He pointed out that he had been a vocal member of the Republican Party for conservative causes in D.C. After he finished John Webb went up to speak and gave his reasons as to what he offered as a candidate for the seat.

Both men did a solid job in their opening statements and came across as intelligent advocates of conservative principles. Where things started to unravel a bit for Campbell was during the portion where members got to ask questions of the candidates. He was attacked for his positions on Cash For Clunkers, Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, and TARP.

I have a great deal of respect for Congressman Campbell for coming into a hostile environment and defending his position he took on these specific bills. I absolutely disagree with his position on TARP, but I respect the fact that he stands by the vote and gives his reasons for it.

One important note is that despite John Campbell having some solid supporters in his corner to speak up for him both Congressman Ed Royce and Congressman Dana Rohrabacher who were in attendance, yet failed to chime in on supporting him for the endorsement.

Nobody in Congress is perfect and overall John Campbell has been a solid conservative vote. I would have liked to have seen him get the endorsement of the OC GOP mainly because the last thing we need is for us to get stuck with Sukhee Kang in Congress.

John Webb seems like a really nice guy and a true conservative but I am behind John Campbell in this race and I hope that he can hold onto the seat. I recognize that we have a couple of Central Committee members as bloggers with us who likely differ with my opinion on this and I would like to encourage them to also post on this issue to give a different side of what went down last night.

Posted in 45th Congressional District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , | 10 Comments »

CD-45: Durkee Embezzlement Case Freezes 40% of Sukhee Kang’s Warchest; John Campbell’s Warchest = $1.1 Million

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 15, 2012

Compared to most Democrats who had Kinde Durkee as their treasurer, Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang actually fared pretty well (Irvine is the largest city in the new 45th Congressional District, and Kang is a directly-elected mayor).  Kang raised $289,398 and spent $35,715 (for those looking at the FEC summary sheet, please note these figures account for a $1,000 refund), only $188,523 was frozen by the LA County Superior Court, pending resolution of the Kinde Durkee case.  He reports $189,559 cash on hand.  (I realize the math doesn’t seem to add up, but this is what’s on his FEC report.)  Kang’s best case scenario is he has all his money.  His worst case scenario is he gets none of the cash back, but that’s only 40% of what he’s raised compared to the wipe-out Jose Solorio and Lou Correa suffered.

Unfortunately, for Kang, even if he gets all of that money back, incumbent Republican Congressman John Campbell‘s $1,096,043 warchest still dwarfs Kang’s.  Not only that, Congressional finance disclosures indicate Campbell is California’s fourth wealthiest member of the House (behind only Darrell Issa, Nancy Pelosi, and Gary Miller), with a net worth between $8-$33 million.  (Including both houses of Congress, Senator Dianne Feinstein comes in ahead of Pelosi but behind Issa).  When Durkee embezzled $4.6 million from Feinstein’s re-election, the Senator loaned her campaign $5 million.  Needless to say, fantastically wealthy members of Congress can easily drop millions into their campaigns if they feel the need.

In the comparison of remarkably similar warchests, Todd Spitzer has $2,988 more cash on hand than John Campbell.

Republican challenger John Webb raised $23,047 and loaned himself an additional $3,200, but has already spent $23,786, leaving himself $2,460 cash on hand before accounting for debts (I assume the $1 differential on the math is due to rounding on his report).

For people wondering, the Registrar of Voters reports a 16.9% Republican registration advantage in this district.  Despite a challenge from the right and a challenge by the mayor of the district’s largest city from the left, John Campbell will still cruise to re-election.

Posted in 45th Congressional District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

 
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