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Posts Tagged ‘Sukhee Kang’

Half are Republicans, Half are Democrats, and Other Random Stats on Orange County’s Directly-Elected Mayors

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 20, 2012

The New Republican Irvine City Council Majority:
Councilman Jeff Lalloway, Councilwoman-Elect Christina Shea, and Mayor-Elect Steven Choi

Partisan Breakdown

Since 2004, Republicans have held a 4-2 advantage among Orange County’s directly-elected mayors:

  • Anaheim: Tom Tait (since 2010), Curt Pringle (2002-2010)
  • Garden Grove: Bill Dalton (2004-2012)
  • Orange: Carolyn Cavecche (2006-2012), Mark Murphy (2000-2006)
  • Westminster: Margie Rice (Republican 2004-2012; Democrat 2000-2004)

The two Democrats were:

  • Irvine: Sukhee Kang (2008-2012), Beth Krom (2004-2008)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (since 1994)

Anaheim’s Tait has Orange County’s only four-year mayoral seat, so he was not up for election this year. Major changes were in store with three mayors termed out (Garden Grove’s Dalton, Irvine’s Kang, and Orange’s Cavecche) and one mayor voluntarily retiring (Westminster’s Rice), leaving only Santa Ana’s Pulido seeking re-election this year.

While Steven Choi captured the Irvine mayoral seat for the Republicans, Bruce Broadwater of Garden Grove and Tita Smith of Orange captured their respective mayor’s posts for the Democrats.

The Republicans are:

  • Anaheim: Tom Tait (term limit: 2018)
  • Irvine: Steven Choi (term limit: 2016)
  • Westminster: Tri Ta (no term limit)

The Democrats are:

  • Garden Grove: Bruce Broadwater (term limit: 2020)
  • Orange: Tita Smith (term limit: 2018)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (term limit: 2020)

It could be worse though, like the 2000-2002 line-up of directly-elected mayors, which had Orange’s Mark Murphy as the sole Republican:

  • Anaheim: Tom Daly (1992-2002)
  • Garden Grove: Bruce Broadwater (1994-2004)
  • Irvine: Larry Agran (2000-2004)
  • Orange: Mark Murphy (2000-2006)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (since 1994)
  • Westminster: Margie Rice (2000-2004 as a Democrat; 2004-2012 as a Republican)

2012 Demographics

An odd sidenote about 2012: in an election that saw Asian Americans vote 3-1 for Barack Obama, Orange County’s Asian American directly-elected mayors went from consisting of one Democrat (Kang) to consisting of two Republicans (Choi and Ta).

While Cavecche was replaced by Smith in Orange, women lost ground as Rice was replaced by Ta in Westminster.

Term Limits

Anaheim, Garden Grove, and Santa Ana have eight-year term limits (two four-year terms in Anaheim and four two-year terms in Garden Grove and Santa Ana).  Orange has a six-year term limit (three two-year terms).  Irvine has a four-year term limit (two two-year terms).  Westminster has no term limits (two-year terms).

Santa Ana’s mayoral term limit is the newest, having been adopted this month.  Irvine’s mayoral term limit is the oldest, taking effect in 1991.

Anaheim has the toughest term limit on Councilmembers who want to be Mayor.  A first-term Councilmember running for Mayor may only serve one mayoral term.  A second-term Councilmember may not run for Mayor.

Excluding Westminster’s non-limit, Garden Grove and Irvine have the most generous term limit for Councilmembers who want to be Mayor.  In both of those cities, when Councilmembers term out, they can run for Mayor, and when they term out as Mayor, they can run for Council, in a never-ending merry-go-round.

Age

After the 2012 election, the mayoral median age is 60.5 with a mean age is 59.3:

  • Garden Grove: Bruce Broadwater (74)
  • Irvine: Steven Choi (68)
  • Orange: Tita Smith (65)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (56)
  • Anaheim: Tom Tait (54)
  • Westminster: Tri Ta (39)

Before the 2012 election, the mayoral median age was 58 with a mean age of 62.3:

  • Westminster: Margie Rice (83)
  • Garden Grove: Bill Dalton (69)
  • Irvine: Sukhee Kang (60)
  • Santa Ana: Miguel Pulido (56)
  • Anaheim: Tom Tait (54)
  • Orange: Carolyn Cavecche (52)

The biggest age change was in Westminster, where Margie Rice was replaced by Tri Ta, who is 44 years younger than her.  The smallest age change (excluding Tait and Pulido, for obvious reasons) was in Garden Grove, where Bill Dalton was replaced by Bruce Broadwater, who is 5 years older than him.

While Westminster had a dramatic age decrease for mayor, Garden Grove, Irvine, and Orange all had age increases for mayor.

The Democrat median and mean ages both increased from 58 to 65.

The Republican median age decreased from 61.5 to 54 while the Republican mean age decreased from 64.5 to 53.7.

Posted in Anaheim, Garden Grove, Irvine, Orange, Santa Ana, Westminster | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 General Election Prediction: 45th Congressional District

Posted by Chris Emami on September 11, 2012

This race in the primary pitted Tea Party darling John Webb, sitting U.S. Congressman John Campbell, and Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang for the right to advance to November. The results were extremely one-sided with John Campbell

United States Representative; District 45

  • John Campbell, Republican ………. 54,346 votes 51.0%
  • Sukhee Kang, Democratic ………. 35,182 votes 33.0%
  • John Webb, Republican ………. 17,014 votes 16.0%

As you can see from the results posted to the “Smart Voter” website despite having a Republican opponent Congressman Campbell still managed to break 50% in the primary.

Here is the map of the 45th Congressional District:

As always thanks to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their map.

I will give Sukhee Kang credit for running 5% above Democratic registration. However, with 22% of voters registered as DTS Kang did not have a great showing in the whole scheme of things. Also remember that Democrats tried the Irvine Councilmember strategy back in 2010 running Beth Krom against John Campbell. Krom did not have a great showing either:

United States Representative; District 48

  • John Campbell, Republican ………. 145,481 votes 60.0%
  • Beth Krom, Democratic ………. 88,465 votes 36.4%
  • Mike Binkley, Libertarian ………. 8,773 votes 3.6%

Kang is from Irvine, the largest city in the 45th Congressional District but unfortunately for him John Campbell also is from Irvine.

With a 20% Asian population in CD 45 you could make the argument that Kang will be one of the more competitive candidates in years. I would argue that party affiliation is more important when running for partisan office.

The fundraising tells a similar story with John Campbell at over $1,000,000 cash on hand after the primary election and Sukhee Kang having under $250,000 cash on hand. This is over a 4:1 ratio for the sitting Congressman.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

John Campbell

Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

CD 45 Mailbox: Another Campbell Positive Piece Arrives

Posted by Chris Emami on May 10, 2012

Congressman John Campbell had another mailer that arrived at my house today. He is clearly taking this race very seriously. As of today I have yet to hear of a piece from either of his opponents John Webb or Sukhee Kang. However, Kang does have the most signs up in the district as of earlier this morning.

The mail piece was an 8.5 x 11 that folds out into an 8.5 x 22 piece. I have scanned the piece into four different files:


Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 45th Congressional District

Posted by Chris Emami on April 11, 2012

I already know that I am going to get flack for my prediction in this race since a lot of people have a beef with John Campbell. For the record this is actually the Congressional seat that now represents me, with Anaheim Hills being drawn in by the redistricting commission.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

Republicans have a 17 point advantage in this seat along with a conservative leaning DTS crowd that is just 6 points away from making the Democrats totally irrelevant in this seat. (Democrats 28, DTS 22).

What used to be CD 48 moved a lot further north eliminating Newport Beach and picking up Orange/Anaheim Hills among other changes. This seat is a pretty safe Republican seat on paper despite the fact that Barack Obama came within 4 points of McCain back in 2008.

Incumbent Congressman John Campbell is currently representing a good portion of this district in CD 48. Which will make him the clear front-runner despite a couple of challengers taking him on this election, including another Republican.

His challengers include Sukhee Kang the Mayor of Irvine who is running as a Democrat. This is the second time that a member of the Irvine City Council has run against Campbell after Beth Krom ran back in 2010.

The other challenger is John Webb a Tea Party Republican who opted to run with the (R) next to his name as opposed to (NPP). He is listed as a small business owner on the ballot.

The factors at play- John Campbell is the incumbent and has represented the majority of this district thus boosting his name ID. His ability to send out mail and fund a comprehensive campaign make him the front-runner to finish first on the ballot in June despite the Republican vote being split.

John Webb seems like he is a good guy and he has a backing of some tea party folks behind him. His fundraising numbers just don’t lead me to believe he can get his message out to enough voters to get into the top 2. Had he listed himself as (NPP) on the ballot I think he might have been able to finish ahead of Sukhee Kang.

Sukhee Kang despite being wiped out by Kindee Durkee has name ID in Irvine, which is a good-sized part of CD 45.  He is also the only Democrat on the ballot. Based on his name ID and party affiliation alone I believe that he will advance to November.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

John Campbell & Sukhee Kang

Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

Analysis On Campbell Missed Endorsement Last Night

Posted by Chris Emami on February 21, 2012

As you can see from the post written by my esteemed colleague Chris Nguyen, in a major surprise Congressman John Campbell failed to get the endorsement of the OC GOP.
Congressman John Campbell, challenged on the left by Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang and on the right by Businessman John Webb
I along with many others in attendance last night was shocked by the results of the vote, with John Campbell falling just 1 vote short of the endorsement. John Webb who is also running for this seat in the 45th Congressional District was also present in an effort to try to block the endorsement.

This particular endorsement began with John Campbell giving a speech on why he deserved the endorsement of the OC GOP. He pointed out that he had been a vocal member of the Republican Party for conservative causes in D.C. After he finished John Webb went up to speak and gave his reasons as to what he offered as a candidate for the seat.

Both men did a solid job in their opening statements and came across as intelligent advocates of conservative principles. Where things started to unravel a bit for Campbell was during the portion where members got to ask questions of the candidates. He was attacked for his positions on Cash For Clunkers, Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, and TARP.

I have a great deal of respect for Congressman Campbell for coming into a hostile environment and defending his position he took on these specific bills. I absolutely disagree with his position on TARP, but I respect the fact that he stands by the vote and gives his reasons for it.

One important note is that despite John Campbell having some solid supporters in his corner to speak up for him both Congressman Ed Royce and Congressman Dana Rohrabacher who were in attendance, yet failed to chime in on supporting him for the endorsement.

Nobody in Congress is perfect and overall John Campbell has been a solid conservative vote. I would have liked to have seen him get the endorsement of the OC GOP mainly because the last thing we need is for us to get stuck with Sukhee Kang in Congress.

John Webb seems like a really nice guy and a true conservative but I am behind John Campbell in this race and I hope that he can hold onto the seat. I recognize that we have a couple of Central Committee members as bloggers with us who likely differ with my opinion on this and I would like to encourage them to also post on this issue to give a different side of what went down last night.

Posted in 45th Congressional District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , | 10 Comments »

CD-45: Durkee Embezzlement Case Freezes 40% of Sukhee Kang’s Warchest; John Campbell’s Warchest = $1.1 Million

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 15, 2012

Compared to most Democrats who had Kinde Durkee as their treasurer, Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang actually fared pretty well (Irvine is the largest city in the new 45th Congressional District, and Kang is a directly-elected mayor).  Kang raised $289,398 and spent $35,715 (for those looking at the FEC summary sheet, please note these figures account for a $1,000 refund), only $188,523 was frozen by the LA County Superior Court, pending resolution of the Kinde Durkee case.  He reports $189,559 cash on hand.  (I realize the math doesn’t seem to add up, but this is what’s on his FEC report.)  Kang’s best case scenario is he has all his money.  His worst case scenario is he gets none of the cash back, but that’s only 40% of what he’s raised compared to the wipe-out Jose Solorio and Lou Correa suffered.

Unfortunately, for Kang, even if he gets all of that money back, incumbent Republican Congressman John Campbell‘s $1,096,043 warchest still dwarfs Kang’s.  Not only that, Congressional finance disclosures indicate Campbell is California’s fourth wealthiest member of the House (behind only Darrell Issa, Nancy Pelosi, and Gary Miller), with a net worth between $8-$33 million.  (Including both houses of Congress, Senator Dianne Feinstein comes in ahead of Pelosi but behind Issa).  When Durkee embezzled $4.6 million from Feinstein’s re-election, the Senator loaned her campaign $5 million.  Needless to say, fantastically wealthy members of Congress can easily drop millions into their campaigns if they feel the need.

In the comparison of remarkably similar warchests, Todd Spitzer has $2,988 more cash on hand than John Campbell.

Republican challenger John Webb raised $23,047 and loaned himself an additional $3,200, but has already spent $23,786, leaving himself $2,460 cash on hand before accounting for debts (I assume the $1 differential on the math is due to rounding on his report).

For people wondering, the Registrar of Voters reports a 16.9% Republican registration advantage in this district.  Despite a challenge from the right and a challenge by the mayor of the district’s largest city from the left, John Campbell will still cruise to re-election.

Posted in 45th Congressional District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

 
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