Posts Tagged ‘Michele Martinez’
Posted by Chris Emami on March 22, 2013
I was working on a database of the part affiliation of all Orange County local elected officials. Finally, I have completed the project with all of the special districts and county seats being added. I also fixed some errors in the previous versions (here, here, and here) and have combined the database into one post.
We have added a button on the menu bar for our readers to always be able to access this database and use it for whatever research/political needs that they may have. Due to the length of th epost you are going to have to click the below link to read the rest of the post.
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 2nd Supervisorial District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 4th Supervisorial District, 5th Supervisorial District, Aliso Viejo, Anaheim, Anaheim City School District, Anaheim Union High School District, Brea, Brea Olinda Unified School District, Buena Park, Buena Park Library District, Buena Park School District, Capistrano Bay Community Services District, Capistrano Unified School District, Centralia School District, Coast Community College District, Costa Mesa, Costa Mesa Sanitary District, Cypress, Cypress School District, Dana Point, East Orange County Water District, El Toro Water District, Emerald Bay Service District, Fountain Valley, Fountain Valley School District, Fullerton, Fullerton Joint Union High School District, Fullerton School District, Garden Grove, Garden Grove Unified School District, Huntington Beach, Huntington Beach City School District, Huntington Beach Union High School District, Irvine, Irvine Ranch Water District, Irvine Unified School District, La Habra, La Habra City School District, La Palma, Laguna Beach, Laguna Beach Unified School District, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods, Lake Forest, Los Alamitos, Los Alamitos Unified School District, Lowell Joint School District, Magnolia School District, Mesa Consolidated Water District, Midway City Sanitary District, Mission Viejo, Moulton-Niguel Water District, Municipal Water District of Orange County, Newport Beach, Newport-Mesa Unified School District, North Orange County Community College District, Ocean View School District, Orange, Orange County, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education, Orange County Board of Supervisors, Orange County Clerk-Recorder, Orange County District Attorney's Office, Orange County Water District, Orange Unified School District, Placentia, Placentia Library District, Placentia-Yorba Linda Unified School District, Rancho Santa Margarita, Rancho Santiago Community College District, Saddleback Valley Unified School District, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, Santa Ana, Santa Ana Unified School District, Santa Margarita Water District, Savanna School District, Seal Beach, Serrano Water District, Silverado-Modjeska Recreation and Park District, South Coast Water District, South Orange County Community College District, Stanton, Sunset Beach Sanitary District, Surfside Colony Community Services District, Surfside Colony Storm Water Protection District, Three Arch Bay Community Services District, Trabuco Canyon Water District, Tustin, Tustin Unified School District, Villa Park, Westminster, Westminster School District, Yorba Linda, Yorba Linda Water District | Tagged: Adam Nick, Al Jabaar, Al Mijares, Al Murray, Al Salehi, Al Shkoler, Alan Anderson, Alexa Deligianni, Alexander A. Ethans, Alfred A. Coletta, Alisa Cutchen, Allan Bernstein, Allan P. Krippner, Amy Hanacek, Amy Walsh, Anastasia Shackelford, Andrew Blount, Andrew Nguyen, Andy Montoya, Andy Quach, Angelica Amezcua, Anna Bryson, Anna L. Piercy, Annemarie Randle-Trejo, Anthony Petros, Arianna Barrios, Arlene Schafer, Art Brown, Art Perry, Audrey Yamagata Noji, Bao Quoc Nguyen, Barbara Dunsheath, Barbara J. Clendineng, Barbara Kogerman, Barbara L. Kilponen, Barbara Michel, Barbara Quintana, Bert Hack, Beth Krom, Beth Swift, Betsy Jenkins, Betty Escobosa, Betty H. Olson, Beverly Berryman, Bill Brough, Bill Hall, Bill Hinz, Bill Jay, Bill Kahlert, Bob Baker, Bob Gardner, Bob Harden, Bob Moore, Bob Whalen, Bonnie P. Castrey, Brad McGirr, Brad Reese, Brandon Jones, Brett Murdock, Brett R. Barbre, Brian Chambers, Brian Donahue, Brian Nakamura, Brian O'Neal, Brian Rechsteiner, Brian S. Probolsky, Bridget Kaub, Bruce Broadwater, Bruce Whitaker, Candi Kern, Carlos Olvera, Carmen Cave, Carol Downey, Carol Gamble, Carol Sundman, Carol Warren, Carrie Buck, Cathy Green, Cathy Schlict, Cecilia Iglesias, Celia Jaffe, Chad Wanke, Chalynn Peterson, Charles Gibson, Charley Wilson, Cheryl Brothers, Chris Brown, Chris Hamm, Chris Phan, Chris Thompson, Christina Shea, Christine Marick, Chuck Puckett, Claudia Alvarez, Cliff E. Breddon Jr., Connie Boardman, Constance Underhill, Craig Green, Craig Young, Cynthia Conners, Dana Black, Darin Barber, Dave Leckness, Dave Sullivan, David A. Boyer, David B. Lang, David Benavides, David Boyd, David Bridgewaters, David Brooks, David Giese, David Grant, David Gutierrez, David John Shawver, David W. Sloan, Dean Grose, Debbie Cotton, Deborah Pauly, Denis Bilodeau, Denis R. Bilodeau, Dennis Salts, Dennis Walsh, Derek Reeve, Diana Carey, Diana Fascenelli, Diana Hill, Diane Singer, Dick Dietmier, Dina Nguyen, Dolores Winchell, Don Sedgwick, Donald Froelich, Donald Karich, Donna Miller, Dore Gilbert, Doug Bailey, Doug Chaffee, Doug Davert, Douglas J Reinhart, Duane Dishno, Dwight Robinson, Edward A. Erdtsieck, Edward D. Selich, Elizabeth Gapp, Elizabeth Minter, Elizabeth Parker, Elizabeth Pearson, Ellen Addonizio, Ellery Deaton, Eric Padget, Esther H. Wallace, Ethan Temianka, Francine Pace Scinto, Frank Bryant, Frank Cobo, Frank Ury, Fred Bockmiller, Fred Smith, Fred W. Schambeck, Fred Whitaker, G. Henry Charoen, Gail Eastman, Gail Lyons, Gary A. Miller, Gary Kurtz, Gary Melton, Gary Monahan, Gary Pritchard, Gary Rubel, Gavin Huntley-Fenner, Gayle Carline, Gayle Mueller Winnen, Gene Hernandez, George West, Gerard Goedhart, Gerri Lee Graham-Mejia, Gina Clayton, Ginny Aitkens, Glenn Acosta Ed Mandich, Glenn Parker, Gordon A. Shanks, Graham Hoad, Greg Bates, Greg Mills, Greg Sebourn, Gregory F. Griffin, Helen Lee, Helen Walker, Hilda Sugarman, Ian Collins, Irv Trinkle, J. Scott Schoeffel, Jack Bedell, James "Jim" Gomez, James Atkinson, James H. Laird, James Vanderbilt, James Wright, Jamison Power, Jan Flory, Jan Vickers, Janet Nguyen, Janny Meyer, Jeanne Galindo, Jeff Cole, Jeff Lalloway, Jeff Thomas, Jeffrey Barke, Jeffrey P. Brown, Jeffrey T. Rips, Jennifer Fitzgerald, Jennifer McGrath, Jerard B. Werner, Jeremy B. Yamaguchi, Jerry L Haight C.L. Larry Pharris Jr., Jerry McCloskey, Jerry Patterson, Jerry Slusiewicz, Jesse Petrilla, Jill Hardy, Jim Bell, Jim Evert, Jim Ferryman, Jim Fisler, Jim Haselton, Jim Katapodis, Jim Moreno, Jim Reardon, Jim Righeimer, Jimmy Templin, Joan C. Finnegan, Joan Flynn, Joanne Baade, Joe Aguirre, Joe Carchio, Joe Rollino, Joe Shaw, Joel Rattner, John A. McDermott II, John Alpay, John Anderson, John B. Withers, John Briscoe, John Collins, John Dobson, John Dulebohn, John Hanna, John J. Collins, John Marconi, John Moorlach, John Nielsen, John Ortega, John Ortiz, John Palacio, John Taylor, John Woods, Jonathan W. Abelove, Jordan Brandman, Jose F. Moreno, Jose Hernandez, Jose Solorio, Jose Vergara, Joy L. Neugebauer, Judi Carmona, Judith A. Franco Walt Davenport, Judith Edwards, Karen Russell, Karen Yelsey, Karin M. Freeman, Katherine Smith, Kathryn L. Barr, Kathryn McCullogh, Kathy Iverson, Kathy Moffat, Katrina Foley, Keith D. Curry, Kelly H. Boyd, Ken Williams, Keri Ueberroth, Ketta Brown, Kevin Hobby, Kirk E. Bell, Kris Beard, Kris Murray, L. Carole Jensen, Lan Quoc Nguyen, Larry Agran, Larry D. Dick, Larry Kramer, Larry McKenney, Larry R. Lizotte, Laura Parisi, Lauren Brooks, Laurie Davies, Lawrence R. Labrado, Leonard L. Lahtinen, Leroy Mills, Leslie Daigle, Linda Habermehl, Linda Lindholm, Linda Navarro/Edwards, Linda Paulsen-Reed, Linda R. Weinstock, Lisa A. Bartlett, Lisa Collins, Lisa Jordan, Lisette Chel-Walker, Liz Steves, Lori Donchak, Lorraine Prinsky, Lucille Kring, Lynn Hatton, Lynn R. Davis, Lynn Thornley, Manny Ontiveros, Marcia Milchiker, Margie L. Rice, Margie Rice, Mariellen Yarc, Marilyn Buchi, Mark D. Wayland, Mark McCurdy, Mark Murphy, Mark Schwing, Mark Taylor, Martha Fluor, Marty Simonoff, Mary Aileen Matheis, Mary Fuhrman, Mary Hornbuckle, Mary Mangold, Mary Murphy, Matt Disston, Matt Harper, Meg Cutuli, Megan Harding, Melody Carruth, Michael Condiff, Michael F. Henn, Michael Farrell, Michael H. Simons, Michael J. Beverage, Michael Levitt, Michael Matsuda, Michael Maynard, Michael Parham, Michael Vo, Michele Martinez, Miguel Pulido, Mike Alvarez, Mike Blazey, Mike Munzing, Mike Safranski, Mike Scheafer, Miller Oh, Milton W. Robbins, Molly McClanahan, Nancy Gardner, Nancy Padberg, Nathan Zug, Nelida Yanez, Noel Hatch, Nora Straight, Pat Bates, Patricia "Trish" Kelley, Patricia Ganer, Patrick Melia, Patrick Ochoa, Paul Bokota, Peer A. Swan, Peter Herzog, Peter Kim, Phil Hawkins, Philip L. Anthony, Phillip B. Tsunoda, Phillip E. Yarbrough, Prakash Narain, Randal Bressette, Rebecca Gomez, Rhoads Martin, Rhonda Reardon, Ric Collett Jon H. Regnier, Richard B. Bell, Richard Barnett, Richard DeVecchio, Richard E. Barrett, Richard Freschi, Richard Murphy, Richard Runge, Richard S. Fiore, Rick Erkeneff, Rick Kiley, Rick Ledesma, Rigoberto Ramirez, Rob Johnson, Rob Richardson, Robert "Bob" Ring, Robert A. Singer, Robert Hammond, Robert Hendler, Robert Ming, Robert N. Hathaway, Robert Ooten, Rodney Todd, Roger C. Yoh, Roger Faubel, Roman Reyna, Ron Joseph Garcia, Ron Shepston, Ronald Casey, Rose Espinoza, Rosemary Saylor, Ross Chun, Roy Byrnes, Roy Moore, Rush Hill, Sal Tinajero, Sam Allevato, Samuel Van Hamblen, Sandi Baltes, Sandra Crandall, Sandra Hutchens, Sandra Jacobs, Sandy Blumberg, sandy genis, Scott Colton, Scott Goldman, Scott O Davis, Scott Voigts, Scott William Nelson, Sergio Contreras, Shari Freidenrich, Shari Kowalke, Sharon H. Brown, Sharon Wallin, Shawn Dewane, Shawn Nelson, Stephen R. Sheldon, Steve Baric, Steve Berry, Steve Blount, Steve Dicterow, Steve Harris, Steve Hwangbo, Steve Jones, Steve Mensinger, Steve Nagel, Steve Shanahan, Steven Choi, Steven E. LaMar, Steven H. Weinberg, Susan Henry, Susan Hinman, Suzie Swartz, Tammie K. Bullard, Ted F. Martin, Teresa Hampson, Theresa O'Hare, Thomas Prendergrast, Tim Brown, Tim Jemal, Tim Shaw, Tim Surridge, Tita Smith, Todd Spitzer, Tom Beamish, Tom Lindsey, Tom Smisek, Tom Tait, Tony Beall, Tony Iseman, Tony Rackauckas, Tracy L. Pellman, Tri Ta, Troy Edgar, Tyler M. Diep, Valeri Peters Wagner, Van Jew, Victor J. Kriss, Vince Sarmiento, Warren Kusumoto, Wayne A. Clark, Wayne Osborne, Wayne Rayfield, Webster Guillory, Wendy Leece, William "Bill" Phillips, William Brutton, William C. Poe, William H. Kahn, William Landsiedel, William R. Hart, William VanderWerff, Woody Rickerl | 5 Comments »
Posted by Chris Emami on November 14, 2012
Chris Nguyen did a great job putting together a local database of all party affiliations for candidates running for local office. I thought that I would take the time to expand on his post and show a database of all Orange County Councilmembers (Also OC Board of Supervisors) that will be serving on City Councils starting next month and what party they are affiliated with.
Please note that a couple of races could potentially change based on a close finish and not all votes being counted. This post will be added to our website in a permanent tab that we will be creating at the top of the site.
Here is the database: Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 2nd Supervisorial District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 4th Supervisorial District, 5th Supervisorial District, Aliso Viejo, Anaheim, Brea, Buena Park, Costa Mesa, Cypress, Dana Point, Fountain Valley, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Irvine, La Habra, La Palma, Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods, Lake Forest, Los Alamitos, Mission Viejo, Newport Beach, Orange, Orange County Board of Supervisors, Placentia, Rancho Santa Margarita, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, Santa Ana, Seal Beach, Stanton, Tustin, Villa Park, Westminster, Yorba Linda | Tagged: Adam Nick, Al Murray, Alexander A. Ethans, Allan Bernstein, Andrew Blount, Andy Quach, Angelica Amezcua, Anthony Petros, Art Brown, Barbara Kogerman, Bert Hack, Beth Krom, Beth Swift, Bill Brough, Bob Baker, Bob Whalen, Brad McGirr, Brad Reese, Brett Murdock, Brian Donahue, Brice Whitaker, Bruce Broadwater, Carlos Olvera, Carmen Cave, Carol Gamble, Carol Warren, Cathy Schlict, Chad Wanke, Cheryl Brothers, Chris Hamm, Chris Phan, Christina Shea, Christine Marick, Chuck Puckett, Connie Boardman, Constance Underhill, Craig Young, Cynthia Conners, Dave Leckness, Dave Sullivan, David Benavides, David John Shawver, David W. Sloan, Dean Grose, Deborah Pauly, Denis Bilodeau, Derek Reeve, Diana Carey, Diana Fascenelli, Dina Nguyen, Don Webb, Dore Gilbert, Doug Bailey, Doug Chaffee, Dwoght Robinson, Edward D. Selich, Elizabeth Pearson, Ellery Deaton, Frank Ury, Fred Smith, Fred Whitaker, G. Henry Charoen, Gail Eastman, Gary A. Miller, Gary Monahan, Gene Hernandez, Gerard Goedhart, Gerri Lee Graham-Mejia, Gordon A. Shanks, Greg Mills, Greg Sebourn, J. Scott Schoeffel, James "Jim" Gomez, Janet Nguyen, Jeff Lalloway, Jennifer Fitzgerald, Jeremy B. Yamaguchi, Jerry McCloskey, Jerry Slusiewicz, Jesse Petrilla, Jill Hardy, Jim Evert, Jim Katapodis, Jim Righeimer, Joe Aguirre, Joe Carchio, Joe Shaw, John Anderson, John Collins, John Moorlach, John Nielsen, John Taylor, Jordan Brandman, Kathryn McCullogh, Keith D. Curry, Kelly H. Boyd, Kris Murray, Larry Agran, Larry Kramer, Laurie Davies, Leroy Mills, Leslie Daigle, Linda Lindholm, Lisa A. Bartlett, Lori Donchak, Lucille Kring, Mariellen Yarc, Mark Maurphy, Mark McCurdy, Mark Schwing, Marty Simonoff, Matt Harper, Melody Carruth, Michael F. Henn, Michael Levitt, Michael Vo, Michele Martinez, Miguel Pulido, Mike Alvarez, Mike Blazey, Mike Munzing, Miller Oh, Milton W. Robbins, Nancy Gardner, Noel Hatch, Pat Bates, Patricia "Trish" Kelley, Peter Herzog, Peter Kim, Phillip B. Tsunoda, Prakash Narain, Randal Bressette, Rebecca Gomez, Rhonda Reardon, Richard Barnett, Richard Murphy, Rigoberto Ramirez, Rob Johnson, Robert "Bob" Ring, Robert Ming, Roman Reyna, Ron Joseph Garcia, Rose Espinoza, Ross Chun, Roy Byrnes, Roy Moore, Sal Tinajero, Sam Allevato, sandy genis, Scott Voigts, Scott William Nelson, Sergio Contreras, Shawn Nelson, Steve Baric, Steve Berry, Steve Dicterow, Steve Hwangbo, Steve Jones, Steve Mensinger, Steve Nagel, Steve Shanahan, Steven Choi, Steven H. Weinberg, Tim Brown, Tim Shaw, Tita Smith, Todd Spitzer, Tom Beamish, Tom Lindsey, Tom Tait, Tony Beall, Tony Iseman, Travis Kiger, Tri Ta, Troy Edgar, Vince Sarmiento, Warren Kusumoto, Wendy Leece, William "Bill" Phillips | 14 Comments »
Posted by Chris Emami on August 30, 2012
AD-65 candidate Sharon Quirk-Silva is campaigning in Santa Ana today: she’s holding a meet and greet at the Martinez Book Store at 216 N. Broadway at 5 PM.
AD-65 is Anaheim, Buena Park, Cypress, Fullerton, La Palma and Stanton. None of those cities even border Santa Ana.
Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.
Maybe she’s in Santa Ana because she wants to be Loretta Sanchez’s successor. That would make sense since Santa Ana is completely in CD-46. She’s sharing campaign offices with Sanchez, too. Maybe that’s what this AD-65 campaign really is about. She’s trying to raise her profile to run for CD-46. CD-46 doesn’t include Buena Park, Cypress, Fullerton, La Palma, or Stanton, by the way.
Maybe Quirk-Silva’s campaigning in Santa Ana because they’ll be friendlier to her pro-tax message there than they will be in AD-65. She must be supporting Governor Jerry Brown’s Prop 30 sales tax and income tax hike. Prop 30 will probably fail miserably in AD-65 but pass in Santa Ana. As Steve Sarkis pointed out in the OC Register, Quirk-Silva’s entire “ending partisan gridlock” argument is just code for increasing taxes. See Steve’s letter (third one down): http://letters.ocregister.com/2012/05/26/primary-distinctions-between-candidates/
Maybe Quirk-Silva’s campaigning in Santa Ana because she has as many Santa Ana City Councilmembers endorsing her as she does in all of AD-65. She has four Santa Ana Councilmembers endorsing her (David Benavides, Michele Martinez, Sal Tinajero, and Vince Sarmiento). Of the four AD-65 Councilmembers endorsing Quirk-Silva (Anaheim’s Lorri Galloway, Fullerton’s Doug Chaffee, and tiny La Palma’s Ralph Rodriguez and Steve Shanahan), Galloway can’t even vote for her since she lives in AD-68 (Anaheim is split into AD-65, AD-68, and AD-69). By the way, Norby has 21 endorsements from AD-65 City Councilmembers.
Maybe Quirk-Silva’s campaigning in Santa Ana because she’ll hope it’ll get the Assembly Dem leadership’s attention by pretending to run in a Dem city like Santa Ana. I wrote a couple weeks ago in my post “Leading Assembly Democrat Headlines Norby Fundraiser” that “She isn’t endorsed by the Speaker or the Assembly Majority Leader either. It looks like the Democrat leadership is abandoning Quirk-Silva.”
It looks like the Democrat leadership is abandoning Quirk-Silva. On Monday, the Assembly’s top Democrat, Speaker John Perez, announced the Dems’ November target list: http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2012/08/assembly-democrats-target-four-races-for-november-election.html
Quirk-Silva wasn’t on it.
Has Quirk-Silva given up on even campaigning in AD-65?
Posted in 46th Congressional District, 65th Assembly District, Santa Ana | Tagged: Chris Norby, David Benavides, Doug Chaffee, John Perez, Loretta Sanchez, Lorri Galloway, Michele Martinez, Proposition 30, Ralph Rodriguez, Sal Tinajero, Sharon Quirk-Silva, Steve Sarkis, Steve Shanahan, Vince Sarmiento | 3 Comments »
Posted by Chris Emami on July 13, 2012
Apparently the City of Santa Ana is going to be discussing term limits at their meeting on Monday. We here at OC Political have received a tip that item 85B on the agenda will be discussed. The item was agendized by Councilwoman Michele Martinez and is titled “DISCUSSION OF POTENTIAL BALLOT MEASURE REGARDING MAYORAL AND COUNCIL TERM LIMITS.”
Information is limited at this time as to specifically what the Santa Ana City Council will be discussing with regards to term limits, but this should make for an interesting topic of conversation with all of the recent buzz.
In a recent article that I posted here on our blog, I discussed a lawsuit that was filed by Parks & Recreation Commissioner Max Madrid. The lawsuit is looking to allow Councilwoman Claudia Alvarez run for a 4th consecutive term. Chris Nguyen has speculated that the lawsuit may get thrown out due to Madrid does not have sufficient standing to bring the suit forward.
Tensions will be high at this meeting with the recent arrest of Councilman Carlos Bustamante, what looks to be a very long agenda, and Councilwoman Claudia Alvarez looking to be out of office in the very near future. My though is that discussing term limits will likely not be the most friendly part of this meeting.
We will have more information on this item as soon as it becomes available.
Posted in Santa Ana | Tagged: Carlos Bustamante, Claudia Alvarez, Michele Martinez | 4 Comments »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 28, 2012
Last week, I blogged two city-by-city breakdowns of the results in two Assembly races.
First up was AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.
Next up was AD-74, which showed Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa) and Businessman Robert Rush (D-Newport Beach) alternating as first and second place in each city in the district, with the sole exception being Newport Beach, where Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach) slipped in ahead of Rush but behind Mansoor.
Up today is the final OC Assembly race that featured more than two candidates: AD-69. First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:
So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the four cities of AD-69: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove, and Orange.
(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics. Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-69. The bulk of Santa Ana and a sliver of Garden Grove are in AD-69 while a sliver of Santa Ana and the bulk of Garden Grove are in AD-72. A sliver of Orange is in AD-69 but the bulk of it is in AD-68. Anaheim is divided into nearly even thirds, with the western 1/3 in AD-65, the central 1/3 in AD-69, and the eastern 1/3 in AD-68.)
Daly was consistently first in each city while Barragan was consistently fifth. Moreno, Perez, and Martinez swapped around for the second, third, and fourth place positions. The humongous Daly head is indicative of his first place finish in all four cities; taking his head out of the individual cities allows us to more closely examine second and third place, which actually differed in the four cities. In each individual city, the candidate with the larger head came in second while the candidate with the smaller head came in third:
- Moreno came in second with Perez third in Anaheim and Garden Grove.
- Perez came in second with Martinez third in Santa Ana.
- Moreno came in second with Martinez third in Orange.
Here’s their vote totals broken down visually by city:
Since Daly came in first by such a large margin (indeed, Daly’s Santa Ana total nearly bested everyone else’s districtwide total) and Barragan fell to fifth by such a large margin (Daly’s Garden Grove total outpaced Barragan’s districtwide total), let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:
It’s clear that without Anaheim, Perez would have made it into the top two and on to November, rather than Moreno. Moreno’s final vote total was 5,980 while Perez’s was 5,738. Without Anaheim, Moreno would have had 4,105 while Perez would have had 4,308. (Anaheim gave Moreno 1,875 votes and Perez 1,430 votes, a 445-vote margin). Perez lost districtwide to Moreno by 242 votes; without Anaheim, Moreno would have lost to Perez by 203 votes.
Anaheim was a crucial stronghold for Moreno, as he came in fourth in Santa Ana but second in Anaheim.
However, with so few cities in AD-69, and Santa Ana such a strong majority of that district (59% of registered voters in AD-69 live in Santa Ana, and 60% of ballots cast in AD-69 were from Santa Ana), it would be more useful to break this result down into regions smaller than cities. Luckily for this purpose, the City of Santa Ana has Council wards.
Here, the larger head came in first while the smaller head came in second:
- Daly came in first with Moreno second in Wards 3 and 6.
- Perez came in first with Daly second in Wards 1 and 4.
- Perez came in first with Martinez second in Wards 2 and 5 (Martinez represents Ward 2 on the Santa Ana City Council, by the way).
Despite the fact that Perez won four wards and Daly only won two, Daly actually won Santa Ana by a 10% margin. How? Well, 48% of registered voters in Santa Ana live in the two wards that Daly won: Wards 3 and 6. 49% of Santa Anans who voted in the AD-69 race live in Wards 3 and 6, so those two wards did not have disproportionate voter turnout – they just have a disproportionate share of the voters to begin with. A picture is worth a thousand words, so…
The overwhelming majority of Daly and Moreno’s votes in Santa Ana came from Wards 3 and 6, with 59% of Daly’s Santa Ana votes and 66% of Moreno’s Santa Ana votes coming from those two wards. By contrast, 29% of Perez’s Santa Ana votes and 38% of Martinez’s Santa Ana votes came from those two wards. Here’s each candidate’s vote totals broken down visually by ward:
Once again, due to Daly’s landslide first-place finish and Barragan’s distant fifth-place finish, let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:
Perez’s vote totals were fairly evenly spread out across the wards, Martinez got a bump from Ward 3, but Moreno’s performance was very strong in Wards 3 and 6 and disastrous in Wards 2, 4, and 5.
Had Perez done a stronger push in Anaheim or a three-prong strategy in Anaheim, Santa Ana’s Ward 3, and Santa Ana’s Ward 6, there’d be a Democrat vs. Democrat intraparty battle in AD-69 in November between business-backed Tom Daly and union-backed Julio Perez.
Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: Albert Ayala, Allan Mansoor, Francisco Barragan, Joe Dovinh, Jose Moreno, Julio Perez, Leslie Daigle, Long Pham, Michele Martinez, Paco Barragan, Robert Rush, Santa Ana Wards, Tom Daly, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 3 Comments »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 14, 2012
On Friday evening, there were 17,125 uncounted ballots.
By Monday evening, there were 14,724 uncounted ballots, meaning 2,401 ballots were resolved on Monday.
By Tuesday evening, there were 9,528 uncounted ballots, meaning 5,196 ballots were resolved on Tuesday.
By last night, there were 4,625 uncounted ballots, meaning 4,903 ballots were resolved on Wednesday.
At the rate they’re going, it’s highly likely the Registrar of Voters completes the vote count today.
For visual learners:
There are only a few races that could still be affected by the outstanding ballots.
- Will Ray Grangoff close his 51-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District? Will Ken Williams close both his 115-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway and his 64-vote deficit to overtake Ray Grangroff for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?
- Will Bill Dunlap close his 62-vote deficit to overtake John Draper for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 74th District?
Those two races are the only ones in all of Orange County where the gap between the elected and the unelected (or 2nd and 3rd place in those fighting to advance to November from primaries) is 0.3% or less. It is highly unlikely the 4,625 outstanding ballots would move the needle any more than 0.3%.
There are a couple races where the current leads would be unaffected by the remaining 4,625 ballots, but where the gap could close enough to lead the 3rd or 4th place candidate to pay for a recount to advance to November from the primaries. (I’m assuming no one’s going to pay for a recount for any party’s Central Committee.)
|69th Assembly District
|Tom Daly (D)
|Jose “Joe” Moreno (R)
|Julio Perez (D)
|Michele Martinez (D)
|Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D)
Team Perez is likely contemplating whether they’ll pay for a recount if they get within 1% of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno). Perez’s allies spent six figures trying to elect him, so the cost of a recount wouldn’t be out of the question for them.
|72nd Assembly District
|Troy Edgar (R)
|Travis Allen (R)
|Joe Dovinh (D)
|Long Pham (R)
|Albert Ayala (D)
Long Pham is likely contemplating if he will pay for a recount if he gets within 0.5% of Travis Allen. It’s unlikely Joe Dovinh or his team have the financial resources to pay for a recount. Pham would need to dig into his own pockets for a recount. He’s already spent $100,000 of his personal funds on his campaign and making 2nd place to get to the November general election against Troy Edgar may be the only way he recoups that $100,000.
The 1% for Perez vs. the 0.5% for Pham is on the basis that Perez would be more aggressive than Pham in pursuing a recount, as Perez’s allies spent more and have deeper pockets to pay for a recount while Pham spent less and has more shallow (less deep?) pockets.
Posted in 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Albert Ayala, ballots, Bill Dunlap, Francisco Barragan, Jeff Lalloway, Joe Dovinh, John Draper, Jose Moreno, Julio Perez, Ken L. Williams Jr., Long Pham, Michele Martinez, Orange County Registrar of Voters, Paco Barragan, Ray Grangoff, Tom Daly, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 13, 2012
On Monday, I took a look at AD-72, and in this post, I’ll be looking at another of OC’s multi-candidate Assembly races that has now narrowed down to two: AD-69.
Conventional wisdom held that if any OC district was going to feature an intraparty battle in November (courtesy of Prop 14), it was going to be the Republicans in AD-74 between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle or the Democrats in AD-69 between OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly and either labor leader Julio Perez or Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez. (Unexpectedly, it was AD-72 that created OC’s sole intraparty battle with an all-Republican November matchup between Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.)
AD-69 will come down to Daly and Republican OC Eligibility Technician Jose “Joe” Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).
We here at OC Political predicted Daly vs. Moreno here, here, and here. (While we made several predictions that went wrong [like nearly everybody else, we failed to predict Edgar vs. Allen in AD-72], we’ve been consistent in predicting Daly 1st and Moreno 2nd in AD-69.)
This race was incredibly evenly divided. Daly was far and away the top vote-getter, getting nearly double the number of votes of the second-place candidate.
|Jose “Joe” Moreno
|Francisco “Paco” Barragan
Some readers may be wondering if Perez could still catch Moreno with the remaining uncounted ballots. There just aren’t enough out there. 27,090 out of the 417,965 ballots counted in Orange County so far cast votes in AD-69, which equals 6.5% of the votes. There are 9,528 uncounted ballots remaining in Orange County, which leaves approximately 619 votes remaining in AD-69. To make up his current 403-vote deficit, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 65.1%. If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 75.1%, leaving just 14.9% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan. Let’s say AD-69 has a disproportionate share of the outstanding ballots, and double that to 1,238 ballots remaining in AD-69, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 32.6%. That is a tough margin for Perez. If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 42.6%, leaving just 47.4% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan.
It’s clear from the results that Martinez was Perez’s spoiler. If just 10% of Martinez’s votes had gone to Perez, he would have surpassed Moreno and advanced to a run-off against Daly. Martinez and Perez were clearly the liberal Democrats in the race, with Daly and Barragan the more moderate Democrats, and Moreno was the Republican. The lion’s share of Martinez’s votes would have gone to Perez.
It’s now clear that without Michele Martinez in the race, union-backed Democrat Julio Perez would have advanced to the November run-off against business-backed Democrat Tom Daly.
Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, Jose Moreno, Julio Perez, Leslie Daigle, Michele Martinez, Paco Barragan, spoiler, Tom Daly, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 10 Comments »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 11, 2012
This week, I’ll be doing a series analyzing OC’s multi-candidate Assembly races that have now narrowed down to two. Our opener is the surprise in AD-72.
Conventional wisdom held that if any OC district was going to feature an intraparty battle in November (courtesy of Prop 14), it was going to be the Republicans in AD-74 between Allan Mansoor and Leslie Daigle or the Democrats in AD-69 between Tom Daly and either Julio Perez or Michele Martinez.
Lo and behold, AD-72 came out of nowhere with an all-Republican November matchup between Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.
AD-72 Matchup: Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) vs. Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach)
Conventional wisdom held that the Republican vote would split three ways between Edgar, Allen, and OC Board of Education Member Long Pham, while Joe Dovinh would hold most of the Democrats, with a small number of votes going to Democrat Albert Ayala.
Most people (myself included) predicted an Edgar vs. Dovinh matchup in November, a few predicted Allen vs. Dovinh, even fewer predicted Pham vs. Dovinh, but did anyone predict Edgar vs. Allen?
How did this happen? Edgar was weaker than expected allowing Allen and Pham to eat up more Republican votes while Ayala was stronger than expected eating up much of Dovinh’s votes from Democrats.
This race was incredibly evenly divided. First place was quite low at 28.2% and last place rose up to 13.6%. Second, third, and fourth place were 0.5% apart.
(Some readers may be wondering if Dovinh or Pham could still catch Allen with the remaining uncounted ballots. There just aren’t enough out there. 62,400 out of the 409,824 ballots counted in Orange County so far cast votes in AD-72, which equals 15.2% of the votes. There are 17,125 uncounted ballots remaining in Orange County, which leaves approximately 2,603 votes remaining in AD-72. To make up the current 245-vote deficit, Dovinh would need to be ahead of Allen by 9.4%. Dovinh never led Allen by more than 5.2%. To make up his current 341-vote deficit, Pham would need to be ahead of Allen by 13.1% and also be 3.7% ahead of Dovinh. Pham never led Allen by more than 5.5%. Now, of that 17,125 uncounted ballots, there are 15,642 provisionals, which do tend to favor Democrats; presumably, 2,378 of those provisionals cast votes in the AD-72 race, but provisionals have a higher invalidity rate than other ballots. Note also that Albert Ayala is still there sucking up a good chunk of votes that would otherwise go to Dovinh.)
The Edgar and Allen camps now face an interesting quandary: tack left, tack right, or try to do both. During the primary, Edgar and Allen both tried to run right, each proclaiming he was the real conservative and the other was closet liberal.
Both Edgar and Allen have interesting partisan histories. Edgar was a registered Democrat until switching his registration to Republican the same week that he filed to run for office for the first time when he did so in his successful bid for Los Alamitos City Council. Allen has donated large sums of money to Democrats, as reported by Jon Fleischman over at FlashReport.
If they run right, Edgar and Allen can each undercut each other’s bases and grab Pham’s supporters. If they run left, they can pick up Dovinh and Ayala’s supporters. Will Edgar and Allen both run right? Will they both run left? Will one run right while the other runs left? Will they attempt to be all things to all people, running right in mail to Republicans, running left in mail to Democrats, and proclaiming their independent/bipartisan/maverick qualities in mail to No Party Preference voters?
In the primary, both men were willing to dip into their personal funds to finance their campaigns. Edgar dropped $100,000 while Allen dropped $95,500. (By the way, Pham dropped $100,000 while Dovinh only dropped $1,000.) Many people will note that candidates often loan their campaigns money to make their warchests look bigger than they actually are. Well, not in AD-72! The largest remaining warchest is less than $25,000. Edgar, Allen, and Pham all spent the bulk of the money they dumped in their campaigns. To recoup that money, they’re going to have to raise it.
Edgar and Allen will need to spend the summer raising more money or else be willing to dip into their personal fortunes again. Either way, this should be an interesting November in AD-72, as Democrats laugh at Republican money being spent against Republicans.
(For our more literature-oriented readers, I will note in the race between Troy Edgar and Travis Allen, Marilynn Poe has endorsed her Council colleague, Edgar.)
Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: Albert Ayala, Allan Mansoor, FlashReport, Joe Dovinh, Jon Fleischman, Julio Perez, Leslie Daigle, Long Pham, Marilynn Poe, Michele Martinez, Tom Daly, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 5 Comments »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 30, 2012
Six days from now is Tuesday, June 5, Election Day.
What is the most important election that day? Is it the CD-47 contest between Alan Lowenthal, Gary DeLong, and Steve Kuykendall? Is it the Troy Edgar-Long Pham-Travis Allen fight in AD-72? Is it AD-69’s Tom Daly vs. Michele Martinez vs. Jose Moreno vs. Julio Perez vs. Paco Barragan battle? Is it the Third Supervisorial District brawl between Todd Spitzer and Deborah Pauly?
No, the most important election on Tuesday lies 2,000 miles northeast of Orange County.
In Wisconsin, June 5 is Election Day in the recall of Republican Governor Scott Walker.
Labor unions launched the recall after Walker gained the passage of legislation that restricted (but did not eliminate) collective bargaining (requiring annual re-certification of unions via annual member elections, limitations of collective bargaining to salaries rather than benefits) and increased public employee contributions to benefits and pensions, among other things.
This recall election marks a watershed moment in which the power of public employee unions faces off against those who seek to curb the legal prerogatives of those unions.
Wisconsin has an interesting recall procedure. In California, the question of whether we should remove someone from office is one item on the ballot, with voters casting a “Yes” or “No” vote, and then a separate item on the ballot are all the recall replacement candidates, with the incumbent ineligible to run in the replacement vote. In Wisconsin, there is no separate question of whether someone is removed: there is a single item in which candidates (including the incumbent) run against each other. Effectively, when you initiate a recall in Wisconsin, you’re simply calling for an early election for the office, much like a parliamentary by-election or snap election; whereas in California, we vote whether or not to keep the incumbent and separately vote on a replacement.
There was a recall primary on May 8, with Walker winning 97% of the votes in the Republican primary and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett winning 58% of the votes in the Democratic primary (this is a rematch of the 2010 election, as Walker defeated Barrett in that election); the recall general election is this coming Tuesday, June 5.
Both the Real Clear Politics average of polls and the Huffington Post average of polls show Walker leading Barrett by a few percentage points.
A Walker victory will embolden politicians across the country seeking to curb the power of labor unions while a Barrett victory will be a warning from the labor unions that politicians should be wary of trying to reduce the legal prerogatives of public employee unions and trying to reduce the benefits enjoyed by public employees.
Posted in National | Tagged: Alan Lowenthal, Deborah Pauly, Gary DeLong, Jose Moreno, Julio Perez, labor, labor unions, Long Pham, Michele Martinez, Paco Barragan, recall, Scott Walker, Steve Kuykendall, Todd Spitzer, Tom Barrett, Tom Daly, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar, unions, Wisconsin | 4 Comments »
Posted by Charles Hart on May 6, 2012
Tonight the Santa Ana City Council is going to, more than likely, vote to remove a restriction on campaign contributions and loans and the effect they play on how our Councilmembers vote.
California Government Code and the Political Reform Act, along with Santa Ana Charter, require that elected officials abstain from voting on any matter where the official received a campaign contribution of more than $250 in the 12 months immediately preceding a vote. In November 1996, Ordinance NS 2034 was adopted by the City Council which imposed an additional restriction prohibiting a Councilmember from soliciting or accepting campaign contributions or loans of more than $250 for a period of three months following a vote.
The current sitting Santa Ana City Council has been plagued with controversy over Councilmembers voting on matters for which they have received campaign contributions. Back in 2010, Councilmembers Sal Tinajero and Michele Martinez received several thousand dollars in campaign contributions from companies with a financial stake in a land project called the Station District. Without their votes the council did not have the votes to approve the project. The contributions came both before and after the vote.
This was in direct violation of the state and city laws discussed above, and when exposed, the Councilmembers returned the contributions, but the vote had already been cast. The legally correct thing to do would have been to undue the vote and sanction or fine the Councilmembers that illegally voted, but our City Council claimed it was too late to undue the contractual commitments made. A contract illegally entered into is void, and that is what should have occurred, but our Council once again failed to do the right thing.
Tonight our City Council is going to try and make things right by simply making the law that makes what they do illegal, go away. So if we stop saying that robbery is illegal then it’s okay for us to rob and be robbed – right?
Wrong! A rose by any other name is still a rose; and the practice of putting your vote out for sale is wrong. Santa Ana City Councilmembers are very arrogant in the positions of authority that they have been elected to and have repeatedly said “Hey, if you don’t like it – vote me out.” Well, I agree with that statement and I urge the Santa Ana Voters to do just that this November.
Posted in Santa Ana | Tagged: Campaign Contributions, Michele Martinez, Santa Ana City Council | 26 Comments »