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Posts Tagged ‘Long Pham’

Live from OCGOP Central Committee: Early Endorsements

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 17, 2014

We’re here live at OCGOP Central Committee for Early Endorsements for the Primary Election.

(7:13 PM): A slew of Youth Associates have been sworn in.

(7:18 PM): Sergio Picchio, former Field Representative to Assemblyman Don Wagner, is receiving the Donald Award for Legislative Staffer of the Year on the occasion of his retirement.

(7:26 PM): Minutes are approved.

(7:27 PM): Announcement of the passing of Jack Christiana.

(7:29 PM): The candidates and elected officials present are introducing themselves: Lucille Kring, Ceci Iglesias, Michelle Steel, Diane Harkey, Baron Night, David Shawver, Robert Hammond, Scott Voigts, Tony Beall, Mike Munzing, Robert Ming, Jim Righeimer, Steven Choi, Phillip Chen, Helen Hayden, Paul Glaab, Tom Tait, Julia Ross, Michael Glen, Tim Shaw, Brett Barbre, Travis Allen, Deborah Pauly, Mark Wyland, Jeff Lalloway, Fred Whitaker, Michael Gates, Steve Nagel, Mark McCurdy, Janet Nguyen, Matt Harper, Lee Ramos, Hugh Nguyen, Dean Grose, Lynn Schott, Jeff Ferguson, Allan Mansoor, Kevin Haskin, Shari Freidenrich, Keith Curry, Ray Grangoff, Eric Woolery, Carlos Vazquez, Claude Parrish, Anna Bryson, Tony Rackauckas, Long Pham, Emanuel Patrascu, Don Wagner, and Young Kim.

(7:36 PM): OCGOP Chairman Scott Baugh speaks about the successful Republican effort in the San Diego Mayor’s race.

He also speaks about Republican efforts to replace Irvine Councilman Larry Agran with Lynn Schott.

(7:39 PM): Irvine Mayor Pro Tem Jeff Lalloway announces that Anaheim Mayor Tom Tait has been named one of the two 2013 OCGOP Local Elected Official of the Year (alongside Supervisor Janet Nguyen who was also announced as the other winner of the award previously).

Baugh gives speaks about Tait’s mayoralty.

Tait thanks the Central Committee for the award.

(7:41 PM): Chairman Scott Baugh brings up early endorsement consideration for District Attorney Tony Rackauckas.

Alexandria Coronado asks a procedural question, to which Baugh responds.

(7:42 PM): TJ Fuentes moves and Mark Bucher seconds the Rackauckas endorsement. He is endorsed unanimously.

RACKAUCKAS ENDORSED

(7:43 PM): Robert Hammond moves and Charlotte Christiana seconds the endorsement of Treasurer-Tax Collector Shari Freidenrich. She is endorsed unanimously.

FREIDENRICH ENDORSED

(7:45 PM): Michelle Steel moves and Tim Whitacre seconds the endorsement of Diane Harkey for Board of Equalization.

Deborah Pauly offers a substitute motion, and Allan Mansoor seconds, to table until the close of filing since there is no incumbent, and more Republicans might jump in.

(7:47 PM): Baugh rules both motions out of order after determining that candidates need to speak before either motion can be made.

(7:49 PM): Baugh says three BOE candidates were notified: Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, Senator Mark Wyland, and former Assemblyman Van Tran. Harkey and Wyland are here, but Tran is not.

(7:50 PM): Harkey opens by describing the BOE’s function. She speaks about her private sector career dealing with corporations and taxation. She speaks about the importance of limiting the field, so that campaign funds can be focused instead of divided. Harkey says it’s critical to get the third vote on actions on the BOE. She speaks about her successful efforts to gain Democrats’ votes to kill legislation. She speaks about how the Legislative Analyst’s Office credited Harkey with getting more oversight against cap and trade. Harkey says she could have walked into Supervisor or Senate, but BOE is the job she wants. She says both she and Wyland are also asking for San Diego GOP Central Committee’s endorsement.

(7:53 PM): Wyland thanks the Central Committee for its work. He talks about how he owned his own 100-200 employee business and how he had to deal with the BOE dozens of times as a business owner. He says he knows how to reform the BOE. He says there were three efforts to unionize his employees, but he defeated those three efforts, so he knows how to fight unions. He notes his electoral background and how he’s given over $1,000,000 to help conservative campaigns. He speaks about how he gave $100,000 to Tony Strickland’s 2008 Senate race when Strickland defeated Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson by less than one vote per precinct. Wyland urges the Central Committee to delay an endorsement vote until after filing closes.

(7:56 PM): Pat Shuff asks the two candidates what was their CRA score. Harkey says 100%. Wyland is unsure what his CRA score was, but got 100% from both Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and California Taxpayers Association.

(7:59 PM): Mr. White asks why Wyland doesn’t want an endorsement made tonight.

Baugh notes dual endorsing is unprecedented but possible.

Wyland says he’s fine with a dual endorsement. He says he’s only requesting the San Diego GOP Central Committee endorsement purely as a defensive major since Harkey’s asked for the Central Committee endorsement. He says he wishes Central Committees would avoid pre-primary endorsements when there’s multiple Republicans.

Harkey says Central Committees should endorse and frequently do. She says Prop 14 has made this more important. She says AD-65 and SD-34 need money, so endorsements can help stop the spillage of money in intraparty primary matters.

(8:03 PM): Desare’ Ferraro asks if a Democrat has filed for BOE and if the seat is in danger.

Harkey says one Democrat has filed, but it’s a Republican seat, though she notes Democrats are gaining.

(8:04 PM): Jeff Matthews asks the two candidates if they’re Republicans in good standing.

Harkey says she’s highly rated by a slew of conservative organizations and the importance of helping candidates both with manpower and money.

Wyland says their vote records are probably quite similar. He again urges Central Committee neutrality and letting the electorate decide. He again notes he’s given financial support to candidates. He speaks of party unity.

(8:06 PM): Steve Nagel asks if either has taken union money.

Both admit taking union money for their legislative races.

(8:07 PM): Kermit Marsh asks what other counties the two have requested.

Harkey says she has requested them in every county in the BOE 4th District.

Wyland says he has not done so.

(8:08 PM): Robert Hammond asks how each voted on an Assembly bill funding Common Core.

Harkey says she didn’t vote for it.

Wyland notes he served on his school board and is proposing legislation to restrict state funding of Common Core. He says he didn’t vote for the bill that Hammond is asking about.

(8:10 PM): Mike Munzing talks about his own efforts to fight AB 32 and SB 375 at SCAG and on the City Council. He asks Wyland about his $1500 contribution to Al Gore in the 1980s.

Wyland admits he once was a Democrat but became a Republican long ago. He again notes his $1,000,000 for Republicans. He speaks about his votes against AB 32 and “all” other regulatory bills. Wyland notes Gore was more conservative in 1988 and bragging about being a tobacco farmer.

(8:13 PM): Mark Bucher asks if Diane Harkey’s exception for public safety unions on her no-union pledge (required on the Central Committee endorsement form) applies to the past or prospectively.

Harkey says she’s still taking public safety union money. She says public safety is 80% Republican. She says Republicans need to reach out to them. She says public safety is important to Republicans. She says she agrees with the no-union pledge for local office but opposes it for state office.

(8:17 PM): Tim Whitacre asks if Wyland voted to increase property taxes in 2012 and if he walked out on certain bills, like naming a ship after Harvey Milk and illegal immigration restrictions, to avoid voting for them.

Wyland notes they vote on 2,000-3,000 bills. He doesn’t remember them all, but doubts he voted for that one in 2012. Wyland says he abhors naming a ship after Harvey Milk but it’s possible he may have missed the vote. Wyland says the Assembly allows its members to add their votes after missing them, but the Senate does not allow such a thing. Wyland says he has introduced more legislation on illegal immigration than any other legislator, including requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote and redirecting DREAM Act funding to veterans.

(8:21 PM): Baugh states that no further questions can be asked directly of the candidates due to the Central Committee’s time limit rules.

(8:22 PM): Tim Whitacre moves and Mary Young seconds the endorsement of Diane Harkey.

(8:23 PM): David Shawver says candidates should have formed committees months ago.

(8:24 PM): Assemblyman Allan Mansoor urges no early endorsement because a lot of questions still need to be responded to. He notes he’s worked with both Harkey and Wyland in the Legislature. He says he’s endorsed Harkey. Mansoor says there are multiple Republicans in good standing running for a Republican seat. He says endorsements should only be made if a RINO is running or if there’s risk of a Democrat winning.

(8:25 PM): Tim Whitacre says the Central Committee usually endorses when he wants neutrality. He says he is not being paid by anyone for BOE. He says Harkey is more conservative than Wyland. Whitacre says Harkey’s an OC resident, unlike Wyland. Whitacre notes Harkey is a lifelong Republican. Whitacre believes San Diego GOP Central Committee will probably endorse Wyland. Whitacre says Harkey’s the best qualified.

(8:28 PM): Mark Bucher says neither should be endorsed. He is very concerned that both have taken union money. Bucher says money is taken from members coercively and spent against their beliefs. Bucher says union money is corrupting. Bucher points to what public safety unions have tried to do to Jim Righeimer in Costa Mesa. Bucher says the OCGOP should not abandon the no-union pledge by endorsing one of them.

(8:30 PM): Tony Beall urges the Central Committee to take a leadership role to influence the electorate. Beall says he’s been Mayor of Rancho Santa Margarita, which is represented by both Harkey and Wyland. He says Harkey is regularly in his city, and he’s never met Wyland. Beall acknowledges that Wyland has assisted California campaigns but not OC campaigns. He says Harkey has helped OC campaigns.

(8:33 PM): Deborah Pauly says this is not about Harkey or Wyland: it’s about process. (She does note Wyland has spent 20 years dealing with the BOE as a businessman.) Pauly says the grassroots is sick of the party jamming decisions down the voters’ throats. Pauly points out that this is a five-county race; if different counties endorse differently, it could be used by the Democrats against whichever Republican advances to November. She says she originally supported waiting until after filing closes, but after listening to the debate, she thinks the Central Committee should wait until the voters have decided in the Primary Election.

(8:37 PM): Robert Hammond asks if the Central Committee is allowed to endorse candidates who violated the no-union pledge.

Baugh says it would violate a 2010 resolution but not the bylaws.

(8:39 PM): The voice vote is unclear. Baugh calls for a standing vote. It requires 2/3 of those present and voting to endorse (i.e. abstentions simply lower the vote threshold required to endorse).

(8:41 PM): The vote count is underway.

(8:42 PM): The vote is 35 for Harkey (32 were need to endorse).

HARKEY ENDORSED

Posted in Anaheim, Board of Equalization, Orange County District Attorney's Office, Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Dominus Way Off On AD 65

Posted by Mr. Friendly on January 22, 2013

The newest blogger on this site had a post go up early this morning that gave an analysis of the 65th Assembly District that had everything but reality included in it. As someone that lives in the 65th Assembly District I can think of at least 3 candidates that would finish ahead of Young Kim and Henry Charoen. 2 of these candidates are already rumored to be running.

  • Steve Hwangbo- La Palma Councilman
  • Bruce Whitaker- Fullerton Councilman
  • Lucille Kring- Anaheim Councilwoman

Miller Oh likely would have been the favorite to be the nominee in 2014 had he not been charged with lying to avoid paying child support. This story makes it unlikely that he will even consider entering into the race to even test the waters.

Chris Norby was also rumored to be running to take back his old seat but my reaction to hearing this was that it would be a disaster. Norby was a train wreck that carried enough baggage to cost him a Republican seat. Republicans need to find candidates that do not carry a lot of personal baggage if they want to gain back any revevancy in California.

Young Kim comes across as a political opportunist by moving to Fullerton seemingly for the sole purpose of running for AD 65. I remember a couple of other people from the ritzy part of Anaheim making a move to run for an office similar to AD 65 in 2010. Ask Harry Sidhu and Lorri Galloway how that move worked out for them.

Henry Charoen and Steve Hwangbo both have a tough battle coming from the smallest portion of AD 65 (La Palma), and they will both need to spend somewhere near $250,000 (at least) to advance into the November election agains Shron Quirk-Silva.

This leads me to believe that contrary to what Dominus might think Young Kim is far from being the front-runner.

On a side note what the heck is Long Pham thinking running for SD 34? I hope that he realizes that this will end no better than his bid for AD 68 (Mansoor), AD 72 (Allen), and all of the other races that he has thrown his name on the ballot for. Even Steve Rocco must think he is nuts for running in this race.

 

Posted in 65th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

SD-34: Long Pham Officially in the Race

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 21, 2013

In case you weren’t following every word of my live blog, former Orange County Board of Education Trustee Long Pham is officially jumping into the SD-34 race.

Just last week our blogger, Dominus, covered SD-34 and speculated on the possibility of a Pham candidacy. Other likely SD-34 Republican candidates are Supervisor Janet Nguyen and former Assemblyman Jim Silva. Rancho Santiago Community College District Trustee and former Assemblyman Jose Solorio will likely represent the Democrats, though Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh may jump in.

More on this in the coming weeks and months ahead, but it’s clear the SD-34 games have begun.

Posted in 34th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

Live from OCGOP Central Committee

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 21, 2013

The rest of the nation commemorated Martin Luther King, Jr. Day today, and Barack Obama was sworn in to a second term as the 44th President of the United States.

Here in Orange County, however, the Republican Central Committee is gathering to swear in its 2013-2014 membership, elect its 2013-2014 officers, and hear from Jim Brulte.

Captain Emily Sanford delivered the invocation and new Central Committee member Peggy Huang led the Pledge of Allegiance.

Central Committee Chairman Scott Baugh called the roll.

State Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff swore in the Central Committee members. Huff joked that it was nice to be in a place where there’s actually multitudes of elected Republicans.

Lucille Kring, Henry Charoen, Robert Hammond, Tony Beall, Mike Munzing, Scott Voigts, Cecilia Iglesias, Anna Bryson, Tom Tait, Jesse Petrilla, Travis Allen, Don Wagner, Greg Sebourn, Bill Brough, Tim Shaw, Fred Whitaker, Todd Spitzer, Jeff Lalloway, Deborah Pauly, Steve Nagel, Mark McCurdy, Matt Harper, Steven Choi, Allan Mansoor, Dean Grose, Mark Schwing, and Craig Young were the elected officials introduced.

Long Pham announced he is running for the 34th Senate District in 2014. Anna Bryson confirmed she has filed paperwork to run for the 73rd Assembly District in 2014. Baron Night announced he was running for Buena Park City Council in 2014.

At 7:32 PM, John Warner nominated Scott Baugh for re-election as Chairman.

At 7:33 PM, Mary Young nominated and Tim Whitacre seconded John Warner for re-election as First Vice Chair.

At 7:34 PM, Bill Brough nominated Mary Young for re-election as Second Vice Chair.

At 7:35 PM, Mary Young nominated and John Warner seconded Peggy Huang for Secretary.

At 7:35 PM, Kermit Marsh nominated and Robert Hammond seconded Mark Bucher for re-election as Treasurer.

At 7:36 PM, Mike Munzing withdrew his candidacy for Assistant Treasurer and nominated TJ Fuentes, with a second from Jon Fleischman.

At 7:36 PM, Pat Shuff nominated and Lucille Kring seconded Norm Dickinson as Sergeant-at-Arms.

At 7:37 PM, the entire slate of executive committee officers was elected unanimously.

Chairman Scott Baugh reappointed Kermit Marsh as Parliamentarian.

At 7:38 PM, Orange County Central Committee Chairman Scott Baugh introduced former Senator Jim Brulte, who is running unopposed for California Republican Party Chairman.

Brulte said he was elected to the San Bernardino County Republican Central Committee at the age of 18. After working in DC, Brulte returned to San Bernardino County as Executive Director of the Central Committee. Brulte had painted the Republican Party headquarters in San Bernardino at the age of 10.

Brulte outlined his top priorities:
1. The CRP is hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt. He wants to rebuild a statewide donor base of small donors, medium donors, and large donors. The CRP only has three employees currently.
2. The CRP must rebuild and expand the grassroots to protect David Valadao and Gary Miller; capture the seats formerly held by Brian Bilbray, Mary Bono Mack, and Dan Lungren; capture the seat held by Lou Correa; and protect the seats held by Eric Linder, Jeff Gorell, and Mike Morrell.

Deborah Pauly asked Brulte about the Tea Party. Brulte said anyone who supports Republican principles of limited government would be welcome and are the core of the grassroots.

Marcia Gilchrist asked about CRP headquarters. Brulte said the CRP headquarters are in a state of disrepair and need rehabilitation.

Teresa Hernandez asked about Hispanic and Latino outreach and about immigration policy. Brulte said the CRP must reach out to people of every community, Latinos, African-Americans, and every community out there. Brulte said it is not the CRP Chair’s job to pontificate on policy issues, it is the CRP Chair’s job to raise money. He said it is Congress’s responsibility to legislate on immigration. Brulte says he wants to focus on the nuts and bolts; he will be appearing on television, on radio, and in newspapers, far less often than previous CRP chairs, so he can focus on nuts and bolts.

Dean Grose asked about reinvigorating the CRP. Brulte said he gained seats during his tenures as Republican Leader in each house of the Legislature. He said the CRP is severely behind technologically.

Mike Withrow urged people to donate more money. Despite his blue collar profession, Withrow has been able to donate $1000 each year for years.

Outgoing CRP Vice Chair Steve Baric spoke of Brulte’s accomplishments in the Legislature and urged support for Brulte for CRP Chair.

At 7:57 PM, Jon Fleischman moved and Mary Young seconded for the OC GOP to endorse Jim Brulte for CRP Chair. The motion passed by acclimation.

Baugh then outlined the top lessons of 2012.
1. GOTV and grassroots matter. He cited numerous instances of close races and noted that a shift in just 500,000 votes in four states out of well over 100,000,000 votes in fifty states could have made Mitt Romney president.
2. Messengers matter. Baugh noted Orange County’s population is like few other metropolitan areas, with 34% Latino and 18.5% Asian. Republicans has lost 7% registration in the last decade, so Baugh says the GOP must work to fight this trend by better engaging Latinos and Asians.
3. Message and tone matter. Baugh said thoughts and ideas are more important than feelings, but properly framing thoughts and ideas are key. Baugh called the Republican Party the party of hope, opportunity, and prosperity for all. Baugh expressed disapproval of Romney’s 47% remark. Baugh pointed to Ted Cruz’s language of opportunity conservatism. He said the term of “limited government” is meaningless to the unemployed or the parents with children in poor schools but “removing barriers and regulations impeding job creation” and “giving parents choices” are the language of opportunity conservatism. He said conservative ideas must be described in how they can help advance opportunity. Baugh said immigration policies are out of date, unenforced, or unenforceable. He said there is a labor supply in Mexico and a labor demand in the US, and people in Mexico are seeking a better life. He said America allows people to seek a better life and asked “who among us” would not come to America from Mexico to seek a better life. Baugh said neither amnesty nor deportation is the answer; it lies somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, a solution that respects dignity and the human spirit. He said Republican policies must offer opportunity to all.

After a brief recess, the 65th District named Alexandria Coronado as its Executive Committee representative, and the 69th named Charles Hart as its Executive Committee representative.

For the Financial Review Committee, each district named the following members:
55th – Brenda McCune
65th – Baron Night
68th – Fred Whitaker
69th – Charles Hart
72nd – Steve Nagel
73rd – Greg Woodard
74th – John Draper
These seven people comprise the entire Financial Review Committee.

Chairman Scott Baugh presented the Local Elected Official of the Year Award to Irvine Mayor Pro Tem Jeff Lalloway for his successful efforts at building a team that toppled the Larry Agran machine in Irvine. Baugh spoke of sending the party’s financial and grassroots resources to Irvine.

Lalloway thanked Mayor Steven Choi, Councilwoman Christina Shea, and Council candidate Lynn Schott. Lalloway spoke of losses at the federal and state levels but the hope that Irvine Council provided, with the police union endorsing Agran’s entire slate and with $1,200,000 spent by Agran’s side including $300,000 spent by Agran personally.

Chairman Scott Baugh presented the Legislator of the Year Award to both Congressman John Campbell and Assemblyman Don Wagner for their efforts in bankrolling much of the OCGOP’s efforts in Irvine.

Wagner thanked Lalloway, Choi, Shea, Baugh, the Central Committee, and all the volunteers who helped in Irvine.

On Campbell’s behalf, Lou Penrose spoke of Campbell’s great delight at the Irvine results and the importance of team efforts. Noting his own Italian heritage, Penrose spoke of doing this as a family effort.

Chairman Scott Baugh announced that Assemblyman Don Wagner was renting a currently-vacant portion of the OC GOP Headquarters in Tustin for his campaign office.

Rhonda Rohrabacher and Assemblyman Don Wagner presented the Anna Woods Memorial HQ Volunteer of the Year Award to Naz Namazi for her efforts at the OCGOP HQ and in Huntington Beach. Namazi also received awards from the offices of Senator Mimi Walters and Supervisor Pat Bates.

Captain Emily Sanford, Zonya Townsend, and Assemblyman Don Wagner presented the Captain Emily F. Sanford, USN (Ret.) Volunteer of the Year Award to Chalone and Harold Warman of San Clemente. The Warmans called themselves “rare Republican teachers,” as Chalone Warman was a teacher at San Clemente High School and Harold Warman taught at San Diego State University.

Irvine Mayor Steven Choi spoke to the Central Committee. He quipped, “It took a village to elect a Republican Mayor of Irvine.” Choi thanked Irvine Mayor Pro Tem Jeff Lalloway, Irvine Councilwoman Christina Shea, Congressman John Campbell, Assemblyman Don Wagner, former Supervisor Bill Campbell, and the volunteers who made his victory possible. Choi also reported Republicans now have a registration advantage over Democrats among Orange County’s Korean-Americans.

At 9:08 PM, the Central Committee adjourned.

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

SD 34 Watch: Could be a Crowded Field

Posted by Dominus on January 14, 2013

Even though the 2012 Presidential Election just ended a few months ago, many candidates are already putting the pieces together for the next campaign.

In 2014, I suspect there will only be two competitive state legislative races in Orange County: SD 34 (Correa) and AD 65 (Quirk-Silva).  In this post, I will focus on SD 34 and save AD 65 for another day.

By any standard measures, SD 34 is a swing district.  Democrats outnumbered Republicans by less than a percentage point.  The district voted heavily in favor of Proposition 8.  The incumbent Lou Correa is termed-out in 2014.

Here is my analysis of this race:

REPUBLICAN FIELD

The most active candidate on the Republican side is Supervisor Janet Nguyen.  She started plotting for this seat back in 2011 when she endorsed Long Beach Councilman Gary DeLong for Congress over Los Alamitos Councilman Troy Edgar in exchange for the support of LA Supervisor Don Knabe.Janet-Nguyen-and-Baby-Tom-300x227

You may wonder why is the support of Don Knabe important? It is because the new SD 34 have a sizable portion of Los Angeles.

Janet also lucked-out when then-campaign treasurer Kindee Durkee cleaned out the accounts of Senator Lou Correa and Assemblyman Jose Solorio.  One of these two politicians were supposed to challenge Janet in 2012.  Instead, the 1st District Supervisor faced a token candidate and didn’t have to spend a whole lot of money for her re-election.  Janet could be sitting on $300,000 – $350,000 right now.

Another Republican candidate in this race is former Assemblyman Jim Silva.  I say potential because Jim is still wishy-washy about it.  Sure he is sitting on top of $400,000 but the idea of running in a brutal primary then go through a general election doesn’t sit well with Jim.  If anything, Jim wants to be drafted by the GOP establishment to run.

Jim may end up running after all, depending on the field.

Aside from these two Republicans, we have another one thinking about it – Long Pham.  The former Orange County Board of Education member and nuclear engineer who spent $100,000 of his personal money on a failed assembly campaign is talking to people about a potential run for SD 34.  Long have loyal followers in the Vietnamese community.  He just need to hire a better campaign consultant if he is to make another run at public office.

DEMOCRATIC FIELD

The front runner on the Democratic side is Jose Solorio, a trustee of the Rancho Santiago Community College District.  As a government consultant, Jose will have plenty of time and flexibility to campaign in this district.  I’m not sure how much money he is sitting on but financial resources should not be a problem if Jose is the only Democrat in the race.  Money from Sacramento will just flow into this war chest.Jose-Solorio-in-Sacramento

Jose’s best bet is to make it into the general November election where more Democrats are likely to vote.  Currently, I see a big problem for Jose – the person he is trying to succeed.

It is in Lou Correa’s interest to have Janet win the 34 SD in 2014 so that it will trigger a special election in 2015 for her supervisorial seat.  Lou and his staff will work behind the scene to help Janet (they can’t do it publicly).

The other Democrat in this race is former Garden Grove planning commissioner Joe Dovinh.  Joe likes to run.  Does he have a chance of winning? Sure, if he can make it through the primary with a Republican opponent.  It’s going to take a lot for Joe not to run and Janet knows it.

Later this week I will write about AD 65 and the likely Republican contender for this seat against incumbent Democrat Sharon Quirk-Silva.

Posted in 34th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

2012 General Election Predictions: 72nd Assembly District

Posted by Chris Emami on September 19, 2012

THis race is the one I am predicting will be the closest and most heated in Orange County. Surprisingly 2 Republicans advanced from the June election to make this race as interesting as it is. The district is somewhat comparable to a more coastal version of Allan Mansoor’s old assembly district when it was AD 68:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

Party affiliation is meaningless in this race because they are both Republicans but it will be interesting to see which candidate targets the 31.6% of registered Democrats first. It is also interesting to note that Huntington Beach is the largest part of the district which is where Allen is from. Los Alamitos is the smallest city on the district which is where Edgar is from.

The results in June are inconclusive because it was close enough to where anybody could end up a winner in November. Here are the June results:

Member of the State Assembly; District 72

  • Troy Edgar, Republican ………. 18,060 votes 28.0%
  • Travis Allen, Republican ………. 12,851 votes 19.9%
  • Joe Dovinh, Democratic ………. 12,432 votes 19.3%
  • Long Pham, Republican ………. 12,409 votes 19.2%
  • Albert Ayala, Democratic ………. 8,816 votes 13.7%

It is pretty amazing to see who close Allen, Dovinh, and Pham were to that 2nd place slot. Looking it the results it appears that Edgar has an advantage going into november which would mean that Travis Allen needs to raise his favorability amongst voters before voting in November.

Fundraising is the kicker for me, as Edgar has just under $100,000 in his account after the primary and Allen has just over $10,000 in his account. This can change with campaigning which will mean that this race will be extremely close. My prediction is based on the campaign as of right now and I reserve the right to change my opinion on this one:

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Troy Edgar

Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

AD-69: Anaheim Saved Republican Moreno, Pushed Democrat Perez into Third, Averting Dem vs. Dem Slugfest in November

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 28, 2012

Last week, I blogged two city-by-city breakdowns of the results in two Assembly races.

First up was AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.

Next up was AD-74, which showed Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa) and Businessman Robert Rush (D-Newport Beach) alternating as first and second place in each city in the district, with the sole exception being Newport Beach, where Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach) slipped in ahead of Rush but behind Mansoor.

Up today is the final OC Assembly race that featured more than two candidates: AD-69.  First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

Orange County Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly (D) 10,939 39.2%
Eligibility Technician Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) 5,980 21.4%
Union Leader Julio Perez (D) 5,738 20.6%
Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D) 4,651 16.7%
Businessman Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) 605 2.2%

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the four cities of AD-69: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove, and Orange.

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-69.  The bulk of Santa Ana and a sliver of Garden Grove are in AD-69 while a sliver of Santa Ana and the bulk of Garden Grove are in AD-72.  A sliver of Orange is in AD-69 but the bulk of it is in AD-68.  Anaheim is divided into nearly even thirds, with the western 1/3 in AD-65, the central 1/3 in AD-69, and the eastern 1/3 in AD-68.)

Daly was consistently first in each city while Barragan was consistently fifth.  Moreno, Perez, and Martinez swapped around for the second, third, and fourth place positions.  The humongous Daly head is indicative of his first place finish in all four cities; taking his head out of the individual cities allows us to more closely examine second and third place, which actually differed in the four cities.  In each individual city, the candidate with the larger head came in second while the candidate with the smaller head came in third:

  • Moreno came in second with Perez third in Anaheim and Garden Grove.
  • Perez came in second with Martinez third in Santa Ana.
  • Moreno came in second with Martinez third in Orange.

Here’s their vote totals broken down visually by city:

Since Daly came in first by such a large margin (indeed, Daly’s Santa Ana total nearly bested everyone else’s districtwide total) and Barragan fell to fifth by such a large margin (Daly’s Garden Grove total outpaced Barragan’s districtwide total), let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:

It’s clear that without Anaheim, Perez would have made it into the top two and on to November, rather than Moreno.  Moreno’s final vote total was 5,980 while Perez’s was 5,738.  Without Anaheim, Moreno would have had 4,105 while Perez would have had 4,308. (Anaheim gave Moreno 1,875 votes and Perez 1,430 votes, a 445-vote margin).  Perez lost districtwide to Moreno by 242 votes; without Anaheim, Moreno would have lost to Perez by 203 votes.

Anaheim was a crucial stronghold for Moreno, as he came in fourth in Santa Ana but second in Anaheim.

However, with so few cities in AD-69, and Santa Ana such a strong majority of that district (59% of registered voters in AD-69 live in Santa Ana, and 60% of ballots cast in AD-69 were from Santa Ana), it would be more useful to break this result down into regions smaller than cities.  Luckily for this purpose, the City of Santa Ana has Council wards.

Here, the larger head came in first while the smaller head came in second:

  • Daly came in first with Moreno second in Wards 3 and 6.
  • Perez came in first with Daly second in Wards 1 and 4.
  • Perez came in first with Martinez second in Wards 2 and 5 (Martinez represents Ward 2 on the Santa Ana City Council, by the way).

Despite the fact that Perez won four wards and Daly only won two, Daly actually won Santa Ana by a 10% margin.  How?  Well, 48% of registered voters in Santa Ana live in the two wards that Daly won: Wards 3 and 6.  49% of Santa Anans who voted in the AD-69 race live in Wards 3 and 6, so those two wards did not have disproportionate voter turnout – they just have a disproportionate share of the voters to begin with.  A picture is worth a thousand words, so…

The overwhelming majority of Daly and Moreno’s votes in Santa Ana came from Wards 3 and 6, with 59% of Daly’s Santa Ana votes and 66% of Moreno’s Santa Ana votes coming from those two wards.  By contrast, 29% of Perez’s Santa Ana votes and 38% of Martinez’s Santa Ana votes came from those two wards.  Here’s each candidate’s vote totals broken down visually by ward:

Once again, due to Daly’s landslide first-place finish and Barragan’s distant fifth-place finish, let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:

Perez’s vote totals were fairly evenly spread out across the wards, Martinez got a bump from Ward 3, but Moreno’s performance was very strong in Wards 3 and 6 and disastrous in Wards 2, 4, and 5.

Had Perez done a stronger push in Anaheim or a three-prong strategy in Anaheim, Santa Ana’s Ward 3, and Santa Ana’s Ward 6, there’d be a Democrat vs. Democrat intraparty battle in AD-69 in November between business-backed Tom Daly and union-backed Julio Perez.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

AD-74′s Surprise Split: Mansoor Wins Three Cities, Rush Wins Other Three Cities, Daigle Second in Hometown But Third in All Other Cities

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 22, 2012

Apologies for the blogcation this week.  We forgot to tell readers we would be taking time off for Day of the Independent Hungary on June 19 and Argentinian Flag Day on June 20.  We were going to celebrate Canadian National Aboriginal Day and Prince William’s 30th birthday on June 21, but then Thomas Gordon blogged about Barack Obama’s assertion of executive privilege à la Richard Nixon.  Now back to the show…

On Monday, I blogged the city-by-city breakdown in AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.

Today, we look at the surprise result in AD-74.

First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

California State Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R) 33,319 43.5%
Newport Beach Businessman Robert Rush (D) 25,120 32.8%
Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R) 18,207 23.8%

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the six cities of AD-74: Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Costa Mesa, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.

74th Assembly District results in each city

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-74.  Huntington Beach is divided nearly 50/50 between AD-72 and AD-74 while 2/3 of Irvine is in AD-74, with 1/3 of Irvine in AD-68.)

In each city, the candidate with the larger head came in first while the candidate with the smaller head came in second:

  • Rush came in first with Mansoor second in Irvine, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.
  • Mansoor came in first with Rush second in Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa.
  • Mansoor came in first with Daigle second in Newport Beach.

These results were consistent in all six cities across both absentee and poll voters.

Here’s the percentage breakdown by city, with the winner’s percentage in bold and the runner-up in italics:

Mansoor Rush Daigle
Costa Mesa 49.7% 32.1% 18.1%
Huntington Beach 46.2% 29.8% 24.0%
Irvine 37.8% 39.1% 23.1%
Laguna Beach 32.0% 46.6% 21.4%
Laguna Woods 33.8% 45.4% 20.7%
Newport Beach 48.2% 22.1% 29.7%

Now here’s that list of cities by number of voters in AD-74:

  • Newport Beach: Mansoor
  • Huntington Beach: Mansoor
  • Irvine: Rush
  • Costa Mesa: Mansoor
  • Laguna Woods: Rush
  • Laguna Beach: Rush

For our visual learners:

The results show that despite enormous spending on behalf of Daigle by Berkshire Hathaway Heir and Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr. (as we blogged about here, here, and here), which eventually totaled well over half a million dollars ($579,040 to be exact), plus another $89,687 in independent expenditures from labor unions, the power of incumbency and grassroots activists enabled Mansoor to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle.  Similarly, the power of party label enabled Rush to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle (much like the power of party label enabled Republican Jose “Joe” Moreno [not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno] to overcome the $246,761 in labor union money spent on behalf of Democrat Julio Perez).

And here’s a quick video courtesy of OC Political Reader and Lake Forest City Council Candidate Dwight Robinson that boils the AD-74 result into a nutshell:

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

AD-72′s Distinct Split: Edgar & Allen Top Two in Four Cities, Pham & Dovinh Top Two in Two Cities

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 18, 2012

With the Primary Election certified, we now have clear breakdowns available in every race in the county.  First up is the 72nd Assembly District, which had the most distinct divisions in the different parts of the district.

First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar (R) 18,060 28.0%
Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen (R) 12,851 19.9%
Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D) 12,432 19.3%
County Board of Education Trustee Long Pham (R) 12,409 19.2%
Garden Grove Retiree Albert Ayala (D) 8,816 13.7%

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the nine major parts of AD-72 (the seven cities of Fountain Valley, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Santa Ana, Seal Beach, and Westminster along with the two major unincorporated areas of Midway City and Rossmoor).

72nd Assembly District results in each city and major unincorporated area

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-72.  Huntington Beach is divided nearly 50/50 between AD-72 and AD-74.  A sliver of Santa Ana and the bulk of Garden Grove are in AD-72 while the bulk of Santa Ana and a sliver of Garden Grove are in AD-69.)

In each city, the candidate with the larger head came in first while the candidate with the smaller head came in second:

  • Edgar came in first with Allen second in Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Seal Beach, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor.
  • Pham came in first with Dovinh second in Westminster, Santa Ana, and Midway City.
  • Pham came in first with Edgar second in Garden Grove.

Here’s their vote totals broken down visually by city:

Seal Beach single-handedly caused Edgar vs. Allen.  Without them, it would have been Edgar vs. Pham.  Same story with Huntington Beach.

Fountain Valley single-handedly caused the all-Republican matchup.  Without them, it would have been Edgar vs. Dovinh.

Here’s how each candidate performed in the various parts of the district:

  • Edgar came in first or third in every part of the district, except for a second-place finish in Garden Grove and a fourth-place finish in Santa Ana.
  • Pham came in first or fifth in every part of the district, except for a third-place finish in his home of Fountain Valley.
  • Dovinh came in second or third in every part of the district, except for a fourth-place finish in Fountain Valley.
  • Allen came in second or fourth in every part of the district, except for a fifth-place finish in Santa Ana.
  • Ayala came in fourth or fifth in every part of the district, except for a third-place finish in Santa Ana.

Here’s a chart showing how the candidates did in each city and major unincorporated area:

Huntington Beach
Los Alamitos
Seal Beach
Rossmoor
Fountain Valley Westminster
Midway City
Santa Ana Garden Grove
  1. Edgar
  2. Allen
  3. Dovinh
  4. Ayala
  5. Pham
  1. Edgar
  2. Allen
  3. Pham
  4. Dovinh
  5. Ayala
  1. Pham
  2. Dovinh
  3. Edgar
  4. Allen
  5. Ayala
  1. Pham
  2. Dovinh
  3. Ayala
  4. Edgar
  5. Allen
  1. Pham
  2. Edgar
  3. Dovinh
  4. Allen
  5. Ayala

Here are the areas sorted by voter turnout:

  • Seal Beach: 36.2%
  • Rossmoor: 34.1%
  • Fountain Valley: 26.9%
  • Los Alamitos: 25.5%
  • Huntington Beach: 24.8%
  • Westminster: 23.5%
  • Garden Grove: 21.7%
  • Midway City: 19.9%
  • Santa Ana: 18.1%

Now let’s see that voter turnout list again, but with the top two candidates in each city noted:

  • Seal Beach: Edgar, Allen
  • Rossmoor: Edgar, Allen
  • Fountain Valley: Edgar, Allen
  • Los Alamitos: Edgar, Allen
  • Huntington Beach: Edgar, Allen
  • Westminster: Pham, Dovinh
  • Garden Grove: Pham, Edgar
  • Midway City: Pham, Dovinh
  • Santa Ana: Pham, Dovinh

Had voter turnout been just a tad higher in Little Saigon or a tad lower in the non-Little Saigon parts of AD-72, Edgar would be facing off against fellow Republican Pham or Democrat Dovinh.

Looking at Pham’s first-or-fifth performance everywhere (outside of his home of Fountain Valley), it’s clear that Team Pham focused too much energy on Little Saigon.  Just a little bit more mail, walkers, or other effort in the non-Little Saigon areas of AD-72 would have been just enough to get him that 0.7% he needed to make the run-off against Edgar.

67% of the voters cast their ballots for the three Republicans while 33% cast their ballots for the two Democrats.  The majority of primary election voters (52.2%) cast their ballots for Dovinh, Pham, or Ayala.  Edgar and Allen combined to win 47.9% of the vote.

The path to victory for the two November contenders goes through Little Saigon, the Democrats, and the independents.  Between Edgar and Allen, whoever can get these large blocs of voters to swing behind them will be the next Assemblyman from the 72nd District.

Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

How Fast is the Registrar of Voters Counting Ballots? When Will They Finish? Who Will This Affect?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 14, 2012

On Friday evening, there were 17,125 uncounted ballots.

By Monday evening, there were 14,724 uncounted ballots, meaning 2,401 ballots were resolved on Monday.

By Tuesday evening, there were 9,528 uncounted ballots, meaning 5,196 ballots were resolved on Tuesday.

By last night, there were 4,625 uncounted ballots, meaning 4,903 ballots were resolved on Wednesday.

At the rate they’re going, it’s highly likely the Registrar of Voters completes the vote count today.

For visual learners:

There are only a few races that could still be affected by the outstanding ballots.

  • Will Ray Grangoff close his 51-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?  Will Ken Williams close both his 115-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway and his 64-vote deficit to overtake Ray Grangroff for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?
  • Will Bill Dunlap close his 62-vote deficit to overtake John Draper for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 74th District?

Those two races are the only ones in all of Orange County where the gap between the elected and the unelected (or 2nd and 3rd place in those fighting to advance to November from primaries) is 0.3% or less.  It is highly unlikely the 4,625 outstanding ballots would move the needle any more than 0.3%.

There are a couple races where the current leads would be unaffected by the remaining 4,625 ballots, but where the gap could close enough to lead the 3rd or 4th place candidate to pay for a recount to advance to November from the primaries.  (I’m assuming no one’s going to pay for a recount for any party’s Central Committee.)

69th Assembly District
Tom Daly (D) 10,862 39.3%
Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) 5,933 21.5%
Julio Perez (D) 5,649 20.4%
Michele Martinez (D) 4,614 16.7%
Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) 594 2.1%

Team Perez is likely contemplating whether they’ll pay for a recount if they get within 1% of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).  Perez’s allies spent six figures trying to elect him, so the cost of a recount wouldn’t be out of the question for them.

72nd Assembly District
Troy Edgar (R) 17,968 28.0%
Travis Allen (R) 12,726 19.8%
Joe Dovinh (D) 12,353 19.3%
Long Pham (R) 12,325 19.2%
Albert Ayala (D) 8,756 13.7%

Long Pham is likely contemplating if he will pay for a recount if he gets within 0.5% of Travis Allen.  It’s unlikely Joe Dovinh or his team have the financial resources to pay for a recount.  Pham would need to dig into his own pockets for a recount.  He’s already spent $100,000 of his personal funds on his campaign and making 2nd place to get to the November general election against Troy Edgar may be the only way he recoups that $100,000.

The 1% for Perez vs. the 0.5% for Pham is on the basis that Perez would be more aggressive than Pham in pursuing a recount, as Perez’s allies spent more and have deeper pockets to pay for a recount while Pham spent less and has more shallow (less deep?) pockets.

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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