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Posts Tagged ‘Joe Carchio’

June 2014 Organizational Endorsements Scorecard

Posted by Chris Emami on June 5, 2014

Chris Nguyen posted a humongous grid of endorsements that broke down all the major organizations and what candidates they endorsed for non-partisan offices in Orange County. You can take a look at his humongous grid of endorsements here. As a follow-up I have done the math on how the endorsed candidates fared in the Tuesday election and have given credit to an organization for endorsing a candidate that either won outright or advanced to the November election.

report_card

Here is a guide to the abbreviations: OC GOP = Republican Party of Orange County, DPOC = Democratic Party of Orange County, CRA = California Republican Assembly, HJTA = Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, CWLA = California Women’s Leadership Association, OC Tax = Orange County Taxpayers Association, OCBC = Orange County Business Council, and CTA = California Teachers Association.

OC GOP DPOC OC Register Lincoln Club Atlas PAC CRA Family Action PAC HJTA CWLA OC Tax OCBC CTA OC Labor Federation Evolve Women in Leadership Planned Parenthood
%  83% 14% 76%  75% 80% 83% 83% 100% 100% 92% 50% 50% 43% 0%  50% 33%
# of Winners  10  1  13  9  8  10 5  5  7  11  2  1  3  0  1  1
# of Losers  2 6  4  3  2  2  1  0  0  1  2  1 4 2  1 2

 

Anybody that got 75% and higher can be considered an organization with a valuable endorsement but the big winners from this election cycle were the California Women’s Leadership Association (Orange County Chapter) and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association both of which managed to endorse no losers.

 

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 4th Supervisorial District, 5th Supervisorial District, Anaheim, Buena Park School District, Democrat Central Committee, Irvine Unified School District, Orange County, Orange County Assessor, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education, Orange County Clerk-Recorder, Orange County Public Administrator, Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

OC’s Top 10 Primary Election Stories

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 4, 2014

Eric Woolery, Robert Hammond, Linda Lindholm, and Ken Williams

OC Board of Education Group Photo at the Custom Campaigns June 3 Election Night Party at BJ’s in Irvine:
Auditor-Controller-Elect/Orange City Treasurer/Former OCBE Trustee Eric Woolery, OCBE Trustee Robert Hammond, Laguna Niguel Mayor/OCBE Trustee-Elect Linda Lindholm, and OCBE Trustee Ken Williams.

Woolery achieved a historic margin of victory in his race for Auditor-Controller (story #6) while Lindholm knocked off Orange County’s longest-serving-in-a-single-office incumbent (story #5). 

As expected, it was a busy night in yesterday’s primary election.  Here’s a rundown of the top 10 stories:

  1. AD-74: Keith Curry and Matt Harper Advance, Emanuel Patrascu LastEmami called it, mostly.  Thanks to Karina Onofre spoiling the Democratic vote for Anila Ali, we have an all-Republican battle for AD-74 to replace Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.  Shockingly, Emanuel Patrascu who had the second most money in AD-74 came in fifth while Harper who spent next to nothing (and what he did spend focused on slate mailers) came in a comfortable second.  This comes down to a Newport vs. Huntington battle in the November runoff, as Newport Beach Councilman Curry fights it out with Huntington Beach Mayor Harper for the Assembly seat.  How much in Republican resources will be drained by the AD-74 race in November, as Republicans seek to capture SD-34 and AD-65 from the Democrats?
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  2. AD-73: Bill Brough Wins GOP Nomination, Anna Bryson Last – In this safe Republican seat, Bill Brough’s low-budget operation demonstrated that precinct walking does work for winning open seats.  With Democrat Wendy Gabriella advancing to the runoff with Brough, he is the prohibitive favorite to be the next Assemblymember from the 73rd District and the district’s first Assemblyman in 16 years after Assemblywomen Patricia Bates, Mimi Walters, and Diane Harkey.  Depending on completion of vote counts for absentees and provisionals, Anna Bryson’s IE-laden campaign may have cost well over $100 per vote.  (To put the massive IE spending for Bryson in perspective, here’s how much spending would have been needed for several other candidates in other races to match that rate: Michelle Steel would have needed $2.4 million, Linda Lindholm $3.1 million, and Eric Woolery $11.0 million.)  This race clearly demonstrated: money can’t buy everything.
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  3. AD-55: Ling-Ling Chang Captures Top Spot – In a brutal slugfest between Diamond Bar Councilwoman Ling-Ling Chang and Walnut Valley Unified School District Trustee Phillip Chen with Diamond Bar Councilman Steve Tye threatening to play spoiler, well-funded Chang managed to overcome very-well-funded Chen’s financial advantage to capture the top spot with 28% of the vote, pushing Chen into third place with 23% of the vote and Tye with 22% of the vote.  Democrat Gregg Fritchle came in second with 28% of the vote.  In this safe Republican district, Chang is the prohibitive favorite to be the next Assemblymember from the 55th District, replacing Curt Hagman.
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  4. SD-34: Janet Nguyen Captures Majority of Votes Cast; Republicans Take Almost 2/3 of Votes Cast – It was a foregone conclusion that Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen would be the Republican nominee against the Democrats’ nominee, former Assemblyman Jose Solorio, in the hotly-contested SD-34.  What is shocking is that despite the presence of Republican former Orange County Board of Education Trustee Long Pham on the ballot, Nguyen still managed to capture 52% of the vote to Solorio’s 34% in the two-county SD-34 race.  Pham captured 14%.  With Republicans capturing nearly 2/3 of the vote, and Nguyen herself capturing 52%, this builds significant momentum for Nguyen heading into the November race, with Republicans turning to Nguyen to break the Democrats’ supermajority in the State Senate and Democrats turning to Solorio to preserve the Democrats’ Senate supermajority.  (For the record, I am not related to Janet Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)
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  5. Orange County Board of Education: Linda Lindholm Unseats 32-Year Incumbent Giant Slayer Liz Parker – For the last few years, there was a joke in education circles that the way to win an Assembly seat was to lose an Orange County Board of Education race to Liz Parker.  Chuck DeVore lost to Parker in 1990 and won an Assembly seat in 2004. Don Wagner lost to Parker in 1998 and won an Assembly seat in 2010.  However, Parker is done.  After nearly a 1/3 of a century in office, Liz Parker has been unseated by Laguna Niguel Mayor Linda Lindholm.  No elected official in Orange County has held the same office longer than Liz Parker.  (Indeed, Parker graduated from college the same month she was elected to the Orange County Board of Education.)
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  6. Auditor-Controller: Eric Woolery’s Unprecedented Majority – In a five-way race with no incumbent for Auditor-Controller, Orange City Treasurer Eric Woolery won nearly 57% of the vote, nearly 40% better than the second-place candidate, Deputy Auditor-Controller Frank Davies, who won 17% of the vote.  In a race with three or more candidates with no incumbent, there has not been a candidate who has won by such a large margin in at least 30 years and, quite possibly, ever.  Indeed, there was only one candidate in those incumbent-free, 3+ candidate races who even averted a runoff: David Sundstrom, who received 50.3% of the vote for Auditor-Controller in 1998. (Anaheim Mayor Tom Daly won 41% of the vote in a five-way race for Clerk-Recorder in 2002 before winning the runoff.  Assistant Public Administrator Vicki Landrus won 41% of the vote and College Trustee John Williams won 36% of the vote in a four-way race for Public Administrator in 2002; Williams won the runoff.  OC Internal Auditor David Sundstrom won 50.3% of the vote in a three-way race for Auditor-Controller in 1998.  OC Assistant Assessor Webster Guillory won 26% of the vote in a seven-way race for Assessor in 1998 before winning the runoff.)
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  7. Irvine Unified School District: Ira Glasky Renders Special Election Moot, Beats Agran-Backed Candidate – After IUSD Trustee Gavin Huntley-Fenner resigned due to business and family obligations, the IUSD Board appointed Ira Glasky to fill the seat in November 2013.  Utilizing an obscure section of the Education Code, a petition drive gathered the necessary 1,643 signatures (1.5% of registered voters at the 2012 school board election) to invalidate Glasky’s appointment and force a special election.  The special election cost IUSD schools hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars.  Three candidates filed to run: Glasky, Larry Agran-backed Carolyn Inmon, and Bob Vu.  Glasky won 42% of the vote to Inmon’s 37% and Vu’s 22%.  IUSD was forced to spend hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars on a special election that had the same end result as if the special election had never happened.
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  8. Assessor: Webster Guillory vs. Claude Parrish Runoff – In 2010, Webster Guillory won 53% of the vote to Claude Parrish’s 47%, but Parrish ran as “Businessman/Tax Consultant” in 2010.  Parrish is “Taxpayer Advocate/Businessman” this year.  Last night, Guillory won 47% to Parrish’s 43%, with Jorge Lopez getting 10%.  Parrish’s stronger ballot designation narrowed the margin between Guillory and Parrish.  In Guillory’s favor is the fact that November voters are more favorable to incumbents than June voters.  In Parrish’s favor is the fact that he has a stronger ballot designation in 2014 than he did in 2010.  Also in Parrish’s favor is the investigation around whether or not Guillory’s nomination papers were signed by his subordinates at the office on County time; if this garners more publicity it helps Parrish; if it fizzles, it’s moot.
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  9. Supe-5: Robert Ming vs. Lisa Bartlett RunoffThe narrative in this race always had business interests spending on IEs for Mission Viejo Councilman Frank Ury to put him into the runoff for the Fifth District Supervisor’s race.  The conventional wisdom was wrong, as Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming and Dana Point Mayor Lisa Bartlett each achieved 29% of the vote (Ming ahead of Bartlett by 0.4%), with Ury in third at 24% and Deputy District Attorney Joe Williams last at 18%.
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  10. Supe-2: Steel Beats Mansoor 2-1 as Both Make Runoff – Conventional wisdom held that the Second District Supervisor’s race would result in a runoff between Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel and Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.  What wasn’t expected was just how close to 50% Steel would get or how large her margin over Mansoor would be.  Surpassing most expectations, Steel pulled off 47% of the vote to Mansoor’s 24%, with Coast Community College District Trustee Jim Moreno at 22% and Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio at 8%.

These honorable mentions were things that happened as expected but may have interesting footnotes:

Honorable Mention #1 – CD-45: Raths Falls Short, Jockeying Begins for SD-37 and Even AD-68 – Republican Retired Marine Colonel Greg Raths fell 4% short of overtaking Democrat Educator/Businessman Drew Leavens to advance to the general election with Republican Senator Mimi Walters.  Did Walters’s hit piece (calling Raths a “Bill Clinton Republican” for his assignment to the Clinton White House while serving in the Marine Corps) move the needle 4%?  Jockeying for the special election for Walters’s SD-37 seat and even Assemblyman Don Wagner’s AD-68 seat has already begun since Walters is expected to crush Leavens in CD-45 in November.

Honorable Mention #2 – Shawn Nelson: OC’s Biggest Supervisorial Landslide Ever? With 84% of the vote, Supervisor Shawn Nelson’s reelection bid may well be the most lopsided victory ever achieved by an Orange County supervisor (excluding races where a Supervisor was unopposed or a Supervisor’s only opponent was a write-in candidate).

Honorable Mention #3 – Measure A: OC’s Biggest Landslide Ever? – With 88% of voters in casting ballots in favor of Measure A, the measure may well have achieved the highest percentage ever for a ballot measure in Orange County.

In the interest of full disclosure, clients of Custom Campaigns (the consulting firm that owns OC Political) include four IUSD Trustees (story #7: Ira Glasky, Paul Bokota, Lauren Brooks, and Michael Parham), three OCBE Trustees (story #5: Linda Lindholm, Robert Hammond, and Ken Williams), Eric Woolery (story #6), and Robert Ming (story #9).  Separate and apart from the consulting firm that owns OC Political, this blogger also did the staff work for Measure A (honorable mention #3).

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 34th Senate District, 55th Assembly District, 5th Supervisorial District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Giant Grid of Endorsements for the June 3 Primary Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 30, 2014

One of our most popular posts from the November 2012 General Election was “Humongous Grid of Endorsements,” so we’re back this election with the Giant Grid of Endorsements for the June 2014 Primary Election.

I did abbreviate for some groups, so OC GOP = Republican Party of Orange County, DPOC = Democratic Party of Orange County, CRA = California Republican Assembly, HJTA = Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, CWLA = California Women’s Leadership Association, OC Tax = Orange County Taxpayers Association, OCBC = Orange County Business Council, and CTA = California Teachers Association.

If you’re particularly interested in a group, click their name to view their endorsements on their web site.  You can learn more about the group there, such as HJTA being the state’s leading taxpayer advocate group or Women in Leadership being a single-issue group with the sole goal of electing “pro-choice women candidates to local, regional and state-wide office who support keeping abortion legal.” (In light of their mission, does anyone else find it odd that Women in Leadership’s two endorsements on this grid are both for school board?)

Candidates in each race are listed in alphabetical order by last name, except incumbents got listed first in their respective races.  Party affiliations are listed except for judicial candidates Thomas Martin and Wayne Philips, as I could not tell their affiliation from the voter database (common names combined with obscure judicial races make figuring out their affiliations challenging).

Whether you love a group and want to vote with their endorsements or hate a group and want to vote against their endorsements, here are the endorsements for county offices and school board, along with local ballot measures:

OC GOP DPOC OC Register Lincoln Club Atlas PAC CRA Family Action PAC HJTA CWLA OC Tax OCBC CTA OC Labor Federation Evolve Women in Leadership Planned Parenthood
Supervisor, 2nd District
Joe Carchio (R)
Allan Mansoor (R) X
Jim Moreno (D) X X X X
Michelle Steel (R) X X X X X X
Supervisor, 4th District
Shawn Nelson (R – incumbent) X X X X X
Rudy Gaona (D) X X
Supervisor, 5th District
Lisa Bartlett (R)
Robert Ming (R) X X X X X X
Frank Ury (R) X X X
Joe Williams (NPP)
Assessor
Webster Guillory (NPP – incumbent) X
Jorge Lopez (D) X X
Claude Parrish (R) X X X X X
Auditor-Controller
James Benuzzi (D)
Mike Dalati (D) X
Frank Davies (R)
John Willard (NPP) X
Eric Woolery (R) X X X X
Clerk-Recorder
Hugh Nguyen (R – incumbent) X X X X X X
Monica Maddox (R)
Gary Pritchard (D) X X
Steve Rocco (NPP)
District Attorney-Public Administrator
Tony Rackauckas (R – incumbent) X X X X X
Greg Diamond (D) X
Sheriff-Coroner
Sandra Hutchens (R – incumbent) X X X X
Superintendent of Schools
Al Mijares (R – incumbent) X X
Treasurer-Tax Collector
Shari Freidenrich (R – incumbent) X X X X X X X
Judge, Office #14
Fred Fascenelli (R)
Kevin Haskins (R) X X X X X
KC Jones (R) X
Thomas Martin
Judge, Office #20
Derek Johnson (D – incumbent)
Helen Hayden (R) X X X X
Judge, Office #27
Joanne Motoike (D – incumbent) X X X
Wayne Philips
Judge, Office #35
Jeff Ferguson (R) X X X
Carmen Luege (R) X X
County Board of Education, Trustee Area 2
David Boyd (R – incumbent) * X X X
Tom Pollitt (R) X X X X X X
County Board of Education, Trustee Area 5
Elizabeth Parker (R – incumbent) * X X X X
Linda Lindholm (R) X X X X X X X
Irvine Unified School District (Special Election for Six-Month Term)
Ira Glasky (R – incumbent) X X  X
Carolyn Inmon (D) X X
Bob Vu (R)
Measure A (Orange County)
Yes X X X X
No
Measure B (Buena Park School District)
Yes
No X
Measure C (Anaheim)
Yes X X
No
Measure D (Anaheim)
Yes
No X
Measure E (Anaheim)
Yes X X
No

*The Democratic Party of Orange County did not endorse David Boyd or Elizabeth Parker, instead the DPOC issued anti-endorsements against Tom Pollitt and Linda Lindholm.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 4th Supervisorial District, 5th Supervisorial District, Anaheim, Buena Park School District, Democrat Central Committee, Irvine Unified School District, Orange County, Orange County Assessor, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education, Orange County Clerk-Recorder, Orange County Public Administrator, Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Carchio in the Mail for 2nd Supervisorial – Beats Mansoor

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 29, 2014

Interestingly we received a small postcard in the mail today with all 75 pieces of typical campaign literature.  For some reason, this little guy actually stood out amongst the rest.  One would really have to read into it – but to reach a large audience, this late in the game and for a smaller price tag, Joe Carchio actually gets an A for effort.  While I personally don’t think this will help propel Carchio into November, it may steal away enough votes and prevent Michelle Steel from walking away with the clean sweep.  Allan Mansoor still has yet to put out one piece of traditional campaign mail.  Tick tock, tick tock…

Carchio Postcard 2 of 2 Carchio Postcard 1 of 2

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: , , | 3 Comments »

Handicapping The Races: OC Board of Supervisors 2nd District (June 2014)

Posted by Chris Emami on May 21, 2014

Whenever I write my posts handicapping races, Chris Nguyen gets really angry and stops just short of throwing things at me. With this in mind, I am not going to handicap all races in Orange County. I will select a few races that I find to be a bit more interesting and predict the winners.

We are going to start this season off with a look at the 2nd Supervisorial District race, which features the following candidates:

  • Jim Moreno – Governing Board Member, Coast Community College District
  • Allan Mansoor – California Assemblyman
  • Joe Carchio – Councilman/Retired Businessowner
  • Michelle Steel – Board of Equalization Member

Voter registration heavily favors Republicans, with Republicans having 44% of registered voters in District 2, compared to Democrats who hold just 29% of voter registration. With that being said, party affiliation matters very little in a race for Orange County Supervisor since the candidates’ parties are not listed on the ballot, so that will definitely help spare Jim Moreno, the lone Democrat in the race. The 2nd Supervisorial District currently has the following cities within its boundaries:

  • Costa Mesa
  • Cypress
  • Huntington Beach
  • La Palma
  • Los Alamitos
  • Newport Beach
  • Seal Beach
  • Stanton
  • Buena Park (Portion)
  • Fountain Valley (Portion)

Also, it is important to explain that the way a race for Orange County Supervisor works is that the top two vote getters will advance to November, unless the top vote getter finishes with over 50% of the vote.

Jim Moreno

Jim Moreno is the lone Democrat in the race and the lone candidate with an education-related ballot designation. His political career is limited to his time on the Coast Community College District Board (since 2006). Let’s take a look at his electoral history.

Results from 2010 (General Election):

COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 1
Completed Precincts: 507 of 507
Vote Count Percentage
* JIM MORENO 101,092 63.5%
SHANA CHRISTINA JENKINS 58,068 36.5%

Results from 2006 (General Election):

COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT Governing Board Member Trustee Area 1
Completed Precincts: 497 of 497
Vote Count Percentage
JIM MORENO 61696 46.0%
CARL A. HENDON 25916 19.3%
LU TUAN NGUYEN 25711 19.2%
TOM HERMSTAD 20837 15.5%

Moreno does have some name ID through the two elections he has been on the ballot for Coast Community College District.

Moreno has the weakest fundraising numbers as of the last report (under $22,000 cash on hand) and does not appear to have the funds to run a very comprehensive campaign. No direct mail has been sent out at this point, no campaign signs are up, and only a few slates have him on it. I have not gotten any feedback on much of a ground game up to this point which is what he would have needed to have done to be more competitive.

He actually came across very well at the Feet to the Fire candidate debate a few weeks ago, and he was, in my opinion, the second-most impressive candidate at the forum.

Based on the factors above, I think Moreno has a slight chance of advancing to November.

Allan Mansoor

Allan Mansoor beat the odds, if you listened to most predictions back in 2012, when he defeated Leslie Daigle in his re-election bid for the 74th Assembly District. I made the accurate prediction of Mansoor advancing to November with Democrat Bob Rush.

Mansoor spent a number of years as a Costa Mesa Councilmember and then went on to serve as the Assemblymember from the 68th Assembly District in 2010. In 2012 after redistricting, the seat he represents became the 74th Assembly District. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.

Results from 2012 (Open Primary):

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 74th District
Completed Precincts: 392 of 392
Vote Count Percentage
ALLAN R. MANSOOR 33,319 43.5%
ROBERT RUSH 25,120 32.8%
LESLIE DAIGLE 18,207 23.8%

Results from 2010 (Republican Primary):

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 68th District – Republican
Completed Precincts: 291 of 291
Vote Count Percentage
ALLAN R. MANSOOR (REP) 22,063 69.3%
LONG PHAM (REP) 9,777 30.7%

Results from 2006 (General Election):

CITY OF COSTA MESA Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 70 of 70
Vote Count Percentage
ALLAN R. MANSOOR 10122 25.9%
WENDY BROOKS LEECE 9524 24.4%
BRUCE GARLICH 8280 21.2%
MIKE SCHEAFER 7255 18.6%
MIRNA BURCIAGA 2717 7.0%
CHRIS BUNYAN 1190 3.0%

Finally, the results from 2002

City of Costa Mesa Member, City Council
Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 81 of 81
Vote Count Percentage
Gary Monahan 10,739 31.0%
Allan R. Mansoor 7,617 22.0%
Linda Dixon 7,092 20.5%
Katrina Foley 5,690 16.4%
William Perkins 3,520 10.2%

As you can see from the election results, Mansoor has a history of winning elections and has some good name ID in the 2nd Supervisorial District (especially in Costa Mesa). Costa Mesa has the third-most voters of any city in the 2nd Supervisorial District, behind Newport Beach and Huntington Beach.

However, Mansoor has had abysmal fundraising numbers as of the last report (less than $62,000 cash-on-hand) and has not run a very impressive campaign. According to our blogger, Marion Morrison, Mansoor went negative in his very first piece of mail in this race. It is a basic rule in campaigning that you have to go positive at least twice before you can go negative. Also, Mansoor has some of the worst campaign signs that I have ever seen with his name appearing in very small letters on the sign. I have not heard of him appearing on any slates at this point. His campaign appears to be focused mostly on going to lots of events.

I will give him a break on his performance at the Feet to the Fire candidate forum, since the debate is an absolute circus (if I was prepping a client for this debate, it would include people with vuvuzelas and other noisemakers to try and create as many distractions as possible).

All of this, combined with a late start to the campaign, in my book, make it a large uphill battle for Mansoor.

Joe Carchio

Joe Carchio might be the most interesting of the candidates running for this seat who are not named Michelle Steel. Carchio is currently a Councilmember from Huntington Beach, which is the largest city in the 2nd Supervisorial District. Prior to his time on the council, he owned the popular restaurant, “Jersey Joe’s” in Huntington Beach.

Carchio has been a consistent winner in both elections that he participated in for Huntington Beach City Council. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.

Results from 2010 (General Election):

CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 4
Completed Precincts: 152 of 152
Vote Count Percentage
CONNIE BOARDMAN 20,019 9.4%
* JOE CARCHIO 18,523 8.7%
MATTHEW HARPER 15,886 7.5%
JOE SHAW 14,585 6.9%
BARBARA DELGLEIZE 14,171 6.7%
BLAIR FARLEY 13,932 6.5%
BILLY O’CONNELL 13,175 6.2%
JIM KATAPODIS 13,100 6.2%
FRED J. SPEAKER 11,183 5.3%
DAN KALMICK 10,775 5.1%
NORM WESTWELL 10,187 4.8%
BILL RORICK 9,835 4.6%
HEATHER GROW 9,624 4.5%
SHAWN ROSELIUS 7,628 3.6%
ERIK PETERSON 7,137 3.4%
BRUCE J. BRANDT 7,125 3.3%
LANDON FICHTNER 4,654 2.2%
ANDRISSA DOMINGUEZ 4,440 2.1%
WILLIAM GRUNWALD 3,652 1.7%
JOHN VON HOLLE 3,209 1.5%
BLAKE ROSE (W) 50 0.0%

Results from 2006 (General Election):

CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 4
Completed Precincts: 155 of 155
Vote Count Percentage
CATHY GREEN 31172 18.6%
JILL HARDY 28582 17.0%
GIL COERPER 24895 14.8%
JOE “JERSEY JOE” CARCHIO 24573 14.6%
FLORENCE “FLOSSIE” HORGAN 23709 14.1%
JOE SHAW 20632 12.3%
NORM “FIRECRACKER” WESTWELL 14282 8.5%

Carchio finished a great deal stronger in 2010 than he did in 2006 as evidenced by the above results. With Huntington Beach being the largest city in the district, it will make for a very interesting election night depending on voter turnout, considering Carchio does have a strong base of support in Huntington Beach.

Impressively, Carchio has the second-highest amount money, as of the last campaign finance report (over $67,000 cash on hand) but has not spent it on anything tangible from what I have seen. I have not heard about any direct mail, slate mail, signs, or large amount of precinct walking.

At one point during the Feet to the Fire candidate debate, I could have sworn that Carchio was ignored for 30 minutes straight, without saying a word. If he starts to spend his money on voter contact, it will make things very interesting.

I believe that Carchio will be extremely close to Mansoor on election night.

Michelle Steel

Calling Michelle Steel the front-runner would be an understatement. Steel, who is currently on the State Board of Equalization, leads in about every category that I have seen and has run an extremely efficient and well-organized campaign.

Steel has been elected twice to the California State Board of Equalization. Let’s take a brief look at her electoral history.

Results from 2010 (Republican Primary):

Member, State Board of Equalization 3rd District – Republican
Completed Precincts: 2084 of 2084
Vote Count Percentage
* MICHELLE STEEL (REP) 167,669 70.3%
VIC BAKER (REP) 70,852 29.7%

Results from 2006 (Republican Primary):

Member, State Board of Equalization 3rd District – Republican
Completed Precincts: 2076 of 2076
Vote Count Percentage
MICHELLE STEEL (REP) 77757 41.4%
RAY HAYNES (REP) 59023 31.4%
STEVE PETRUZZO (REP) 27788 14.8%
HAL “JIMBO” STYLES (REP) 12155 6.5%
LEWIS A. DA SILVA (REP) 11040 5.9%

It is first and foremost, important to note that Steel has appeared on the ballot twice to the entire 2nd Supervisorial District (and all of Orange County for that matter) thanks to complete overlap by her State Board of Equalization seat. Steel was impressive with both her margin of victory in 2010 as an incumbent and her victory over well-known Assemblyman Ray Haynes in 2006.

Steel has an impressive fundraising lead over all of her opponents combined (over $500,000 cash on hand) and has dominated the campaign when it comes to voter contact. I have seen at least 8 mailers that have arrived from her campaign, and it is clear that she is trying to end this thing in June by breaking 50% in the primary. She has also dominated slate mail, signs, endorsements, and precinct walking. Most impressively, she received the endorsement of the OC Register, which should move the needle a few points on election night.

Based on my opinion of the Feet to the Fire candidate debate, I would say Steel has a great knowledge of the issues that exist at the County of Orange, and she came across very well to voters. I was actually quite impressed with her accuracy when I fact-checked some of the numbers that she threw out to the audience at the candidate debate.


Prediction Time

Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict the winner will be

Michelle Steel (in June) – I think she is going to clear 50% of the vote.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , | 4 Comments »

Live from the 2nd Supervisorial District Feet to the Fire Forum

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 28, 2014

We’re live from the Feet to the Fire Forum for the Second Supervisorial District. Yours truly got promoted to the media table.

The candidates are seated in this order from left to right: Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel, Coast Community College District Trustee Jim Moreno, Assemblyman Allan Mansoor, and Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio. Moreno is a Democrat while the rest are Republicans.

The media panelists are Norberto Santana of the Voice of OC, Alicia Lopez of the Daily Pilot, Jack Wu of the OC Register, John Canalis of the Daily Pilot, and Barbara Venezia of the Daily Pilot/OC Register.

(7:02 PM): Canalis asks if the candidates would forego a Supervisorial pension.

Steel would forego the pension.

Moreno would donate the pension to an account to fund nonprofit organizations. He would do the same with his commission stipends.

Mansoor says he would take the pension because he is not independently wealthy and does not have a home in Rancho Palos Verdes (referencing Steel). He says he would take the lower of two pension formulas offered at the County (Editor’s Note: the voters approved a June 2012 ballot measure mandating Supervisors pick the lower pension formula.)

Carchio says he did not accept a pension in Huntington Beach and would not accept one at the County.

Canalis asks if the candidates would vote to outright ban Supervisorial pensions.

Moreno says he would not.

Wu asks Moreno about pension reform.

Moreno says pension management would need to be examined.

Venezia says all the candidates’ Web sites abstractly speak of pension reform without details.

Mansoor says he would lead by example.

Steel says unfunded liabilities are a problem and notes the County was 100% funded in 2000. She says economic growth and demographic shifts combined with rates of return must be accounted for. She speaks about the recent amortization changes at OCERS.

Mansoor says he left the Sheriff’s Department to go to the Assembly where he has no pension.

Carchio speaks of the need for employees to pay for their entire employee pension contribution.

Lopez asks Steel about her endorsement from Sheriff Hutchens. She asks about offering a raise to deputies in exchange for them paying their entire employee contribution.

Steel points to the example of OCEA. She says she wants to look at the numbers to be sure of what solution she would pursue.

Mansoor opposes the pay raise because it would increase the pension obligation.

Santana asks Mansoor about the risk of deputies being poached by neighboring agencies.

Mansoor says these are difficult times and difficult decisions need to be made to make the County solvent.

Wu asks Mansoor about leading by example by refusing the pension.

Mansoor says it would be irresponsible to ask employees to entirely give up their pensions.

Santana asks how would spending more to pay down the pension liability affect spending on other County programs and services.

Steel points to waste, fraud, and abuse. She gives an example of verifying welfare eligibility, modeling after a San Diego County program that saved $500,000. Steel says the OCERS investment returns should improve to reduce unfunded pension liability.

(Santana interjects several times demanding specifics.)

Moreno speaks about asking college employees to tell his college board about waste, and they found $10 million in waste.

Lopez asks Steel about how to fix CalOptima.

Steel says there needs to be more transparency and points to the appointment of two Supervisors at CalOptima.

Moreno says experts need to be brought in to fix the problems. He says the Board must have experts managing CalOptima.

Carchio says in Huntington Beach that they got employees to retire early, implement a 4/10 schedule, and other creativd ideas related to balance the budget after the loss of Redevelopment Agencies. (Editor’s Note: What does this have to do with CalOptima?) He says that all we heard about was RDA abuses, but RDAs did good things. He says creativity with RDAs shows how to solve these problems.

Venezia speaks about the 2012 election for Assembly. She asks about the criticism that Mansoor is leaving his Assembly seat early since he’s not termed out.

Mansoor said he supported Don Hansen and jumped in when Hansen dropped out. He criticizes Steel for moving to Orange County to run for Supervisor as a platform to run for Congress.

Venezia asks him to answer the original question.

Mansoor again points to Hansen dropping out.

Venezia and Wu ask if he will jump ship if elected Supervisor.

Mansoor starts to say that he wants a resident of Orange County to be Supervisor.

Wu interrupts to ask how long does someone need to be an Orange County resident. He points to Mansoor’s endorsement of Jim Righeimer for Costa Mesa City Council after Righeimer moved from Fountain Valley.

There’s crosstalk between Mansoor and Wu.

Steel jumps in to point out she’s lived in Orange County since 2011. She speaks about immigrating from Korea. She asks if she needs to be born here.

Carchio speaks about living in OC for 35 years and serving on numerous OC boards.

Steel asks if it’s so important to have a long-term Mansoor why he doesn’t support Carchio who’s lived in OC for decades.

Mansoor says he supported Hansen.

Lopez asks Mansoor what legislation he’s passed in Sacramento.

He points to various pending pieces of legislation.

Lopez asks if he’s accomplished something as a legislator.

Mansoor points to the challenges of being in the minority when there’s a supermajority.

Wu asks Steel about her accomplishments as a member of the Board of Equalization minority party.

Steel points to several items, including: *returning 1/2 of $267,000,000 to taxpayers
*switching late payment interest from monthly rates to daily rates, so taxpayers who are one day late only pay a day’s interest rather than a month’s interest

Steel lists several other items that this blogger can’t keep up with. She says she is a consensus builder who can get things done.

Moreno interjects that he has worked in the private sector, worked for an LA County Supervisor, served on the College Board, and been a father.

Venezia asks about Diane Harkey’s husband’s investment litigation since Steel has endorsed Harkey for Steel’s own Board of Equalization seat.

Steel says the courts already ruled that Diane Harkey was not part of this issue. She points to Harkey’s accomplishments in the Assembly.

Mansoor points to his track record in the Assembly. He says he was willing to stand up to the Mike Carona machine.

Santana asks who is part of the Carona machine now since Carona is in prison.

Mansoor says Steel is backed by a lot of people who backed Carona.

Santana repeatedly asks Mansoor to name names while Mansoor declines to do so each time.

Santana then asks what each candidate views is the role of a County Supervisor.

Moreno says the County is an arm of the state. He says the County takes care of social welfare, public health, and public safety issues. He says experts need to be running the agencies.

Santana asks for specifics.

Moreno speaks about solving constituent problems (i.e. casework).

Mansoor points to OCTA and the 405 toll lanes.

Wu and Santana ask Mansoor about other agencies.

Mansoor says they need to let him finish his answer. He speaks about public pressure forcing OCTA’s hand on the 405.

Santana asks about OCFA.

Mansoor says he would have a hands on approach.

Santana asks what that means.

Mansoor says he would audit the OCFA and points to his service on the Assembly Audit Committee.

Carchio says the OCFA board is too large and needs to be reduced in size from 25, pointing to his experience on the 35-member Vector Control Board.

Santana asks what size the OCFA Board should be.

Carchio says he doesn’t have enough information to determine an exact number.

Carchio argues he sits on more boards than Supervisors or Assembly members do.

Venezia asks how much each candidate has raised for their campaign to get their message out.

Wu says the candidates should exclude loans from their numbers.

Carchio says $75,000.

Mansoor says $100,000.

Moreno says $40,000.

Steel says $550,000.

Steel says raising money is hard work.

Mansoor speaks about issues mattering more and says he has a history of beating better funded candidates. He points to his endorsements from outgoing Supervisor John Moorlach and several district mayors.

Lopez asks Mansoor about his reputation on immigration and the Latino vote.

Mansoor says he is not anti-immigrant. He says he supports legal immigration and is the son of two immigrants. He says his actions in Costa Mesa only related to illegal immigrants who committed other crimes. He says Steel has said different things to different people, telling some that she opposes the Lincoln Club plan and telling others that she supports aspects of it. He says he supports eVerify, but Steel opposes it.

Steel says she is an immigrant. She supports a guest worker program. She supports the Lincoln Club plan. She opposes eVerify.

Wu asks Mansoor about the legislative letter he signed that got sent to members of Congress.

Mansoor says the published portion was out of context from the letter he signed.

Moreno speaks about the DREAM Act. He says these students are indistinguishable from kids born in the United States. He calls for prevailing wage in any guest worker program. He says LAX is where illegal immigrants come from. He points to the deportation of Australians.

Carchio says he went to a Sacramento press conference with Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez and his bill on human trafficking. Carchio speaks about high levels of human trafficking from China and Vietnam. He wants an equitable settlement where everyone is treated like a human being.

Venezia asks why she should vote for each of the candidates.

Steel speaks of her BOE track record and her efforts on behalf of taxpayers.

Moreno points to his experience working for an LA County Supervisor and his service on the Coast Community College Board.

Mansoor says he will stand up to special interests and political machines. He says he has an open door policy and will always listen to constituents.

Carchio points to his lengthy time as an OC resident. He speaks about his business owner experience, his experience on the City Council, and his experience on regional and state boards.

Despite starting slightly late, the forum ends right on time at 8 PM.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

CRA Recap: Bates, Ming Unanimously Endorsed; Steel, Brough, Harper Endorsed; CD-45 Deadlock

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 1, 2014

CRA Logo

OC Political live-blogged the Orange County CRA endorsements this morning.  Here’s the quicky recap for those of you who just want the results:

CRA Endorsements

  • Supervisor Patricia Bates was endorsed by unanimous consent for the 36th Senate District.
  • Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming was endorsed by unanimous consent for the 5th Supervisorial District.
  • Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel was endorsed for the 2nd Supervisorial District, defeating Assemblyman Allan Mansoor 28-9.
  • Dana Point Councilman Bill Brough was endorsed for the 73rd Assembly District, defeating Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla 12-3, with former Laguna Niguel Councilman Paul Glaab receiving no votes.
  • Huntington Beach Mayor Matt Harper was endorsed for the 74th Assembly District, defeating Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry 14-3.
  • In the 45th Congressional District, Supervisor John Moorlach and Senator Mimi Walters fought through three rounds, but the convention deadlocked, so no endorsement was made in this race.  In the first round, Walters got 13 votes while Moorlach got 12, and retired United States Marine Corps Colonel Greg Raths received no votes.  Walters and Moorlach advance to a second-round run-off, in which they tied with 12 votes each.  In the third and final round, Walters got 14 votes while Moorlach got 9 votes.  It required a 2/3 vote to endorse, so CD-45 failed to produce an endorsement.

All other races on the June ballot will be considered in three weeks on Saturday, March 22.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 36th Senate District, 45th Congressional District, 5th Supervisorial District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Steel Endorses Harkey as BOE Successor

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on September 6, 2013

This came over the wire yesterday from the Diane Harkey for Board of Equalization campaign…

For Immediate Release

Thursday, September 5, 2013

In Case You Missed It:

Harkey Gains Major Endorsement with Support of BOE Incumbent Michelle Steel

(Sacramento, CA) – Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel announced Monday her support for Diane Harkey to replace her on the Board.  Steel is retiring due to term limits and is running for Orange County Supervisor.  Michelle Steel joins a long list of Harkey supporters, including:

  • Congressman John Campbell
  • State Senator Mimi Walters
  • Former Senator Marian Bergeson
  • Assembly Member Curt Hagman
  • Assembly Member Alan Mansoor
  • Assembly Member Don Wagner
  • Orange Co. District Attorney Tony Rackaukus
  • Orange County Sheriff Sandra Hutchens
  • Orange County Clerk-Recorder Hugh Nguyen
  • Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen
  • Orange County Supervisor Todd Spitzer
  • Orange County Supervisor Pat Bates
  • Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson
  • Orange County Supervisor Bill Campbell (ret)
  • Anaheim Mayor Tom Tait
  • Anaheim City Councilwoman Lucille Kring
  • Anaheim City Councilwoman Kris Murray
  • Irvine Mayor Steven Choi
  • Irvine Mayor Pro Tem Jeff Lalloway
  • Irvine City Councilwoman Christina Shea
  • Huntington Beach Mayor Pro Tem Matt Harper
  • Huntington Beach City Councilman Joe Carchio
  • Mission Viejo Mayor Rhonda Reardon
  • Mission Viejo Mayor Pro Tem Patricia Kelley
  • Mission Viejo City Councilman Dave Leckness
  • Mission Viejo City Councilman Frank Ury
  • Laguna Niguel Mayor Robert Ming
  • Laguna Niguel Mayor Pro Tem Linda Lindholm
  • Laguna Niguel City Councilwoman Laurie Davies
  • Former Laguna Niguel Mayor Gary Capata
  • Aliso Viejo Mayor Carmen Cave
  • Aliso Viejo Mayor Pro Tem Phil Tsunoda
  • Aliso Viejo City Council Mike Munzing
  • San Juan Capistrano Mayor John Taylor
  • San Juan Cap. Mayor Pro Tem Sam Allevato
  • San Juan Capistrano Councilman Larry Kramer
  • Dana Point City Councilman Bill Brough
  • Dana Point City Councilman Carlos Olvera
  • Stanton Mayor David Shawver
  • Tustin Mayor Al Murray
  • Tustin City Councilman John Nielsen
  • Tustin City Councilman Allan Bernstein
  • Rancho Santa Margarita Mayor Anthony Beall
  • Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Steve Baric
  • Fountain Valley Mayor Mark McCurdy
  • Laguna Hills Mayor Pro Tem Andrew Blount
  • Laguna Hills City Councilman Randall Bressette
  • Laguna Hills City Councilwoman Melody Carruth
  • Laguna Hills City Councilman Dore Gilbert
  • San Clemente Mayor Pro Tem Tim Brown
  • San Clemente City Councilwoman Lori Donchak
  • San Clemente City Councilman Jim Evert
  • Orange City Councilman Fred Whitaker

(Partial List)

Posted in Board of Equalization | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

2nd Supervisorial District Campaign Finance Reports: Steel Way Ahead

Posted by Chris Emami on August 2, 2013

michellesteelallanmansoorjimmorenojoecarchio

Chris Nguyen gave an excellent analysis yesterday of the 73rd Assembly District campaign finance reports. I figured that I wanted to contribute to the party by providing a similar analysis of the 2nd Supervisorial District. This analysis is going to show that Michelle Steel is in a commanding lead. She currently has more cash on hand than every candidate running for the 2nd Supervisorial District and 73rd Assembly District combined.

The biggest surprise from this race is Joe Carchio. It was announced by Carchio last week that he was running for the seat. I obviously don’t expect him to report any money raised for the period covering January 1st- June 30th 2013, but he hasn’t even opened a committee yet.

Michelle Steel got the early lead on this race being the first to announce her candidacy. Her fundraising totals are quite impressive with just under $450,000 (includes transfers) in actual direct contributions arriving during this reporting period. That is an impressive number for any campaign, especially a Supervisorial campaign. I must admit that I was surprised that she doesn’t appear to have a campaign website up and running yet.

It is still really early in the race and Allan Mansoor is still only exploring a run for Supervisor, but his numbers are not super impressive. $8,400 (includes transfers) raised is not going to get the job done. He might have a name ID advantage going into the race but he cannot have a repeat performance of what happened in 2012 (getting massively outspent) against Michelle Steel. If he steps up his fundraising this election I can see him putting together some impressive fundraising numbers from some local grassroots organizations. At this point though it may be too late.

Jim Moreno raised the second most at $12,785 and did not have to transfer anything over from his College Board Account. This number is not great compared to Steel but I will give him credit for raising more than Mansoor. It will be interesting to see what he raises for this campaign as I do consider him a bit of a wild card candidate to make it to the run-off.

One of the more interesting statistics that I noticed from the reports are the lack of expenditures. Generally, candidates end up spending a lot of money up front, but that is not the case in this race with Steel leading the pack on spending at a whopping $6,593. I have a feeling that spending will go dramatically up during the next reporting period for all of the candidates.

Here is the breakdown:

Candidate Contributions Other
Income
Candidate
Loans
Unpaid
Bills
Expenditures Cash on Hand
(COH)
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
Steel $449,939 $0 $0 $4,750 $6,593 $552,030 $547,280 $447,280
Moreno $12,785 $0 $2,100 $0 $3,221 $10,692 $10,692 $7,471
Carchio N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Mansoor $8,400 $0 $0 $0 $175 $8,225 $8,225 $8,225
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

Campaign finance reports for January 1-June 30, 2013 were due at 11:59 PM last night.

In order to provide the complete story, it must be noted that Michelle Steel did transfer money from her Board of Equalization account and Allan Mansoor transferred money from his Assembly account. Here is a chart to showing the breakdown of how much was raised and how much was transferred:

Steel
Mansoor
Transfer to Supe
$198,619 $1,000
Raised for Supe
$251,040 $7,400

Ladies and gentlemen this race is very one sided as of today. Michelle Steel has over 25 times as much money as all three of the other opponents COMBINED! I admit that Allan Mansoor has a name ID advantage going into the race and he did beat Leslie Daigle in 2012 despite being massively outspent, but if he doesn’t step up these numbers his chances of getting elected are very unlikely.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , | 3 Comments »

2nd Supervisorial District Watch: Huntington Beach Joe Carchio is also “Exploring”

Posted by Dominus on May 11, 2013

Last week Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio sent out an email to his “friends & supporters” requesting inputs on a potential run for Orange County Supervisor, 2nd District.  This email came on the heel of similar email that was sent out by Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.  Here is a portion of that email:

Like some of you, I sat on the sidelines for year while others did the work.  I’ve voted in all the elections that I was able, sent along my contributions to candidates I cared about, stuffed envelopes, walked precincts, etc.

I’ve been told I have some good ideas that would work well for Orange County.  However, what I think of my accomplishments so far is not as important as what you think of the role I have played in our local political leadership lives and what perhaps I could do for all of us at the County.  I have no political further careers goals and would dedicate myself to serving the people of Orange County as 2nd District Supervisor.

Joe Carchio is currently a part-time Field Representative for Assemblyman Travis Allen.  He is will be forced out of the Huntington Beach City Council at the end of 2014 because of term limits.  In 2011, he publicly stated that he will run for the newly created 72nd Assembly District only to later discovered that he lives in the wrong part of Huntington Beach.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District | Tagged: | 2 Comments »

 
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