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Posts Tagged ‘Gary Miller’

Poll Results in CD 45: Spitzer Is The Frontrunner

Posted by Chris Emami on July 2, 2013

This morning Jon Fleischman posted the results of a poll conducted by Lewis Consulting Group, that showed the favorables/unfavorables of some potential candidates along with results of some hypothetical matches. The results were not what I expected to see, with what appears to be a wide open race amongst a few front-runners. I talked to John Lewis this morning after the poll was released and he had this to say, “The goal with this poll was to try and best replicate predicted 2014 turnout. This is clearly a wide open race and results will largely depend on who decides to run.”

200px-Spitzer_portrait_wiki
You can view the entire poll by clicking CD45-Crosstab-Tables-I.

Lets start by taking a look at the raw numbers for favorables vs unfavorables for each candidate in the running, in order to use a single number to represent favorability, I am taking the percentage that represents favorables and subtracting the percentage that represents unfavorables in order to create a net favorability ranking system. Here are the rankings based 0n this net favorability:

(R) Todd Spitzer +25% (OC Supervisor)
(R) Ed Royce +20% (Congressman)
(D) Sukhee Kang +13% (Former Irvine Mayor)
(R) Mimi Walter +13% (State Senator)
(D) Steve Young +12%  (Perennial Dem Candidate)
(R) Gary Miller +10% (Congressman)
(R) Don Wagner +10% (State Assemblyman)
(R) Scott Baugh +8% (Chairman of OCGOP)
(D) Beth Krom +4%
(D) Barack Obama -28% (This was simply his approval rating, I am fairly certain he has no intention of seeking this seat)

The fact that Todd Spitzer had the highest net favorability was not especially surprising to me because a lot of my non-political friends are aware of some of his public safety initiatives that he has worked on. I am most surprised by Steve Young having a 12% net favorability rating, although my instinct states that perhaps some football fans got confused on this one.

This data does not also take into account that some other potential candidates are looming out there, including but not limited to Steven Choi (Current Irvine Mayor), John Moorlach (OC Supervisor), and some of the wealthy private sector individuals that could self-fund a campaign. On the Dem side I hear rumblings of Irvine Councilmember Larry Agran jumping into this race and I would argue that he would be the Democrat most likely to advance to November.

My favorite part of the poll was the hypothetical match-ups that were polled including the following scenarios:

Mimi Walters vs. Gary Miller vs. Beth Krom

Walters 25.0%
Krom 21.3%
Miller 21.0%

This matchup is interesting because Walters is definitely in this race and I have heard from more than a couple of insiders that Gary Miller is strongly considering a move back to Orange County to run for this seat due to the fact that his current seat is one that could very easily go blue in 2016. A 4% gap is not very hard to overcome especially when you consider margin of error of any poll.

Mimi Walters vs. Ed Royce vs. Beth Krom

Royce 25.7%
Krom 22.3%
Walters 20.3%

I am not surprised that Royce is leading in this matchup due to the fact that he is a sitting Congressman who has higher name ID than Gary Miller in Orange County. The surprising part is that Walters is within striking distance of him and could beat him in a head-to-head matchup.

Mimi Walters vs. Todd Spitzer vs. Beth Krom

Spitzer 29.0%
Krom 22.0%
Walters 19.7%

Wow!!!!! This result on its own shows me that Todd Spitzer can have this seat if he wants it.

Mimi Walters vs. Ed Royce vs. Beth Krom

Walters 26.7%
Krom 23.0%
Wagner 15.7%

Don Wagner is my personal favorite of all the candidates considered in this poll but these numbers look to be a steep hill to climb in a hypothetical matchup that includes Walters.

Mimi Walters vs. Steve Young vs. Beth Krom vs. Sukhee Kang

Walters 41.0%
Krom 10.3%
Young 8.7%
Kang 7.3%

These numbers show that a Democrat winning this seat is highly unlikely. I believe that Larry Agran would be able to finish ahead of all of the rest of these folks in CD 45 on the Dem side.

Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments »

OC’s New Republican Congressmen Vote 3-1 Against Fiscal Cliff Deal; Old Ones Voted 3-2 in Favor

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 3, 2013

In a far-too-brief summary of the fiscal cliff deal: income taxes increased on people making more than $400,000 (couples over $450,000), tax deductions phase out for individuals making more than $250,000 (couples over $300,000), payroll taxes increased on people making more than $50,000, the death tax was increased from 35% for estates over $5.12 million to 40% for estates over $5 million, the Earned Income Tax Credit was expanded, college tuition tax credits were extended for five years, and federal unemployment benefits were extended for a year.

The vote on the fiscal cliff provides an interesting illustration of the impact of redistricting on Orange County’s Congressional representation.

fiscalcliffolddist

How the Representatives of the Old Congressional Districts Voted on the Fiscal Cliff Deal

fiscalcliffvotes

How the Representatives of the New Congressional Districts Voted on the Fiscal Cliff Deal

The old OC delegation voted 5-2 in favor of the fiscal cliff deal while the new OC delegation voted 4-3 against the fiscal cliff deal, with the new 8th member not yet seated.

More interestingly, the old districts had Republicans 3-2 in favor of the deal with the Democrats at 1-0 while the new districts have Republicans 3-1 against the deal with the Democrats at 2-0.

Ed Royce (R-Fullerton), Linda Sanchez (D-Cerritos), and Loretta Sanchez (D-Santa Ana) voted in favor of the fiscal cliff deal.

John Campbell (R-Irvine), Darrell Issa (R-Vista), and Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) voted against the fiscal cliff deal.

(Newly Elected Congressman Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach) will not take take office until later this morning.)

Congressmen Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar) and Ken Calvert (R-Corona) represented portions of Orange County until yesterday but now represent exclusively Inland Empire districts.  Miller and Calvert both voted for the fiscal cliff deal.

Posted in 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, National | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Congressman Gary Miller’s Weekly Newsletter

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on August 4, 2012

This came over the wire from Congressman Gary Miller’s office yesterday…

August 3, 2012

Congressman Miller Votes to Prevent Tax Hikes on Taxpayers and Job Creators

Looming large over our economy is the pending expiration of the 2001 and 2003 tax relief. Beginning January 1, 2013, the lowest-income taxpayers will see their tax rate rise from 10 percent to Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 39th Congressional District | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Congressman Gary Miller’s Weekly Newsletter

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on July 21, 2012

This came over the wire from Congressman Gary Miller’s office yesterday…

July 20, 2012

FY 2013 Defense Appropriations Bill Passes House
This week, the House of Representatives passed legislation to fund our nation’s military for the upcoming fiscal year under an open amendment process. The bill includes $519.2 billion in regular funding, which is in line with the House-passed FY 2013 budget proposal. The appropriations bill provides for a 1.7% pay raise for military personnel, $35.1 billion for health Read the rest of this entry »

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Congressman Gary Miller’s Weekly Newsletter

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on July 14, 2012

This came over the wire from Congressman Gary Miller’s office yesterday…

July 13, 2012

Repeal of Obamacare Act Passes House

In response to the recent ruling by the Supreme Court to uphold the$1.8 trillion Democrat health care law, the House of Representatives voted on Thursday to repeal the law in its entirety. The law, which has failed to reduce the cost of health premiums as promised, poses a serious threat to the current health plans of millions of Americans as well as future job creation. As the law now stands, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that as many as twenty million Americans could lose their Read the rest of this entry »

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Congressman Gary Miller’s Weekly Newsletter

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 30, 2012

This came over the wire from Congressman Gary Miller’s office yesterday…

June 29, 2012

Congressman Miller Criticizes Supreme Court Ruling on the President’s Health Care Law

On Thursday, the Supreme Court announced that it has upheld the so-called Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Congressman Miller is deeply disappointed by the Court’s misguided ruling. Read the rest of this entry »

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Congressman Gary Miller’s Weekly Newsletter

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 23, 2012

This came over the wire from Congressman Gary Miller’s office yesterday…

June 22, 2012

House Passes Conservation and Economic Growth Act
On Tuesday, the House passed legislation that promotes job growth and the responsible use of our national resources and public lands. For California, the bill will help create jobs and support economic growth by increasing the boundaries of Read the rest of this entry »

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Congressman Gary Miller’s Weekly Newsletter

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 9, 2012

This came over the wire from Congressman Gary Miller’s office yesterday…

June 8, 2012

House Votes to Repeal Medical Device Tax and Restrictions on Health Savings Accounts
One of the myriad of tax increases included in President Obama’s health care overhaul is a 2.3 percent excise tax on Read the rest of this entry »

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Congressman Gary Miller’s Weekly Newsletter

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 20, 2012

This came over the wire from Congressman Gary Miller’s office…

May 18, 2012

FY 2013 Defense Authorization Passes House
On Friday, the House of Representatives passed the Fiscal Year 2013 National Defense Authorization Act. This bill authorizes $642 billion Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 39th Congressional District | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

Rep. Gary Miller’s Weekly Newsletter

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 13, 2012

This came over the wire from Congressman Gary Miller’s office on Friday…

May 11, 2012

Commerce-Justice-Science Appropriations Bill Passes House
On Thursday, the House of Representatives passed a bill to fund several government agencies, including the Departments of Commerce and Justice, NASA, and science programs. The bill provides $51.1 billion, a reduction of $1.6 billion from current levels and $731 million less than the President’s request.  Included in the legislation is a provision that prohibits funds under the bill from being used to provide abortions. The measure also strictly prohibits the use of federal funds to knowingly transfer firearms to suspected members of drug cartels without continuous monitoring of the firearms by law enforcement. Congressman Miller supported this legislation which strikes a careful balance between the need to reign in unnecessary federal spending, while ensuring that appropriate resources are provided to combat crime and terror threats and promote U.S. competitiveness and job creation.

Sequestration Replacement Legislation Approved by House
As a result of last year’s failure by the Select Committee on Deficit Reduction to come to an agreement on a $1.2 trillion deficit reduction package, an equivalent amount of savings will be achieved through automatic spending cuts for the next ten years, through a process known as sequestration. For 2013, $98 billion in non-mandatory spending will be sequestered, $43 billion from non-defense programs and $55 billion from defense. It should be noted that these defense cuts are in addition to $490 billion worth of reductions that have already been planned. This week, House Republicans passed an alternative plan to replace the 2013 sequester to protect our national security interests, while ensuring that deficit reduction goals are fully met. To do this, the replacement bill lowers the FY 2013 spending cap established by last year’s Budget Control Act by $19 billion, and makes targeted spending cuts – including eliminating funding to implement the President’s health care law – that will result in a net savings of $238 billion over ten years. Congressman Miller supported this legislation to ensure that the federal government gets its fiscal house in order without risking our national security.

Congressman Miller Chairs Hearing on Dodd-Frank’s Conflict Minerals Provision
On Thursday, a House Financial Services panel led by Congressman Miller held a hearing to examine the consequences of a provision tucked into the 2,300-page Dodd-Frank law on American jobs. In an attempt to discourage the purchase and use of minerals mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Section 1502 of Dodd-Frank directs the Securities and Exchange Commission to formulate rules requiring thousands of companies to certify that none of their products contains such minerals. This is a near-impossible task, due to ongoing violence and a lack of infrastructure in the Congo to track minerals. While Section 1502 is well-intended, it was added to Dodd-Frank during late-night conference negotiations, without the benefit of any prior congressional hearings on the potential impact on American jobs and global competitiveness. Serious concerns have been raised that this provision will cost American job creators $9 to $16 billion to implement, and will put U.S. companies at a huge disadvantage with foreign competitors who do not have to report that their products are “conflict-free.” In addition, some have expressed concerns that Section 1502 has caused a de facto embargo against the Congo, harming legitimate Congolese miners and undermining the good intentions of the provision. It is unfortunate that these concerns could not have been addressed prior to Section 1502 becoming law. As the chairman of the International Monetary Policy and Trade Subcommittee, Congressman Miller will continue to closely follow the SEC’s rulemaking process to ensure that Section 1502 disclosure rules do not adversely impact U.S. jobs or make a terrible situation in the Congo even worse.

Artistic Discovery Winners Announced
Congressman Miller is pleased to announce the winners of the annual Artistic Discovery art competition. Miss Britta Sibley of Ruben S. Ayala High School received first place for her woodburnt “Gearhead.” Miss Sibley will receive two tickets to attend a special reception in Washington, D.C., where her artwork will be displayed in the U.S. Capitol Building. Second place was awarded to Miss Tiffany Chuang of Yorba Linda High School for her photograph entitled ‘It Lingers’. Miss Megan Ramirez of La Serna High School received third place for her scratch board ‘Warm Winter”. Congressman Miller would like to congratulate all 70 students who participated in this year’s competition. All of the artwork entered was exceptional.

The Capitol Connection Newsletter is published at the end of every week in which Congress is in session. To subscribe or unsubscribe to this newsletter, please send an email to CapitolConnectionNewsletter@mail.house.gov or call (202) 225-3201.

Posted in 39th Congressional District | Tagged: | 2 Comments »

 
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