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Posts Tagged ‘Dana Rohrabacher’

Secretary of State Determines Primary Election Alphabet

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 19, 2014

Photo Courtesy of OC Political Friend Alex Vassar, Publisher of JoinCalifornia.com and OneVoter.org, who attended the Secretary of State’s lottery in person.

I’ve had several people ask me what the candidate order for the June ballot will be.

California law requires a lottery to determine the order of candidates on the ballot.  Why does this law exist?  Studies of the primacy effect showed the candidate at the top of the ballot gains as much as a 5% increase in votes.  Consequently, in 1975, California legislators adopted a law mandating an end to the alphabetical listing of candidates (likely to the chagrin of Sam Aanestad and Dick Ackerman but the joy of Mary Young and Ed Zschau) and requiring a lottery before each election.

The Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery has determined the alphabet for the June primary to be ROYWBMCKVTFUQPIHDAJNEXGSZL.

Nowhere was the result more dramatic than the 48th Congressional District. In all of Orange County, the candidate who came in absolutely last was Wendy Brooks Leece (R), who is challenging Dana Rohrabacher‘s (R) bid for re-election. Coincidentally, the candidate who came in first among all Orange County candidates was none other than Rohrabacher.

For multicounty Congressional seats, statewide seats, and Board of Equalization, they will rotate in each Assembly District.

Ed Royce (R) would have come in ahead of Rohrabacher if it weren’t for the fact that Royce’s multi-county district doesn’t get to use the Secretary of State’s drawing, instead using the Assembly District rotation.  Since Royce has only one opponent, Peter O. Anderson (D), the two of them will flip-flop throughout the Assembly Districts of the 39th Congressional District.

For multicounty state legislative seats, the Registrar of Voters in each County does another lottery. The candidate order lottery for the Orange County portions has determined the alphabet to be FQMTPUSZJRIBOVCAEKNYWXHLDG.

In the 55th Assembly District, Gregg Fritchle (D) is first (with F being the first overall letter), followed by Steve Tye (R), Ling-Ling Chang (R), and Phillip Chen (R).  No alphabet sequence was closer than Chang and Chen.  Where C and H drew was irrelevant for Chang and Chen; it was where A and E finished that matters.  This was a photo finish: A was the 16th letter drawn while E was the 17th letter.  Chang and Chen also possess the two largest warchests of anyone running for the Assembly in Orange County (incumbents included).  AD-55 has all the makings of a highly competitive race, and it’s almost like the candidate order lottery reflects that (though obviously the candidate order lottery’s results are just a coincidence).

On a side note, you would think that with electronic voting now, the names could be randomized for every poll voter (obviously, we’d still need the lottery for absentee voters).

Posted in 48th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, California | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Mansoor Jumps Into 2nd Supervisorial Race

Posted by Chris Emami on November 20, 2013

allanmansoorAssemblyman Allan Mansoor confirmed longstanding rumors last night by officially jumping into the 2nd Supervisorial District race to succeed the termed out John Moorlach.

First of all, I would argue that Mansoor is actually the front-runner in this race, having been on the ballot before when running for Assembly, as well as during his unusually high-profile tenure as Mayor of Costa Mesa. Michelle Steel, his chief opponent, may have more money but just recently moved into the district and will likely face numerous carpetbagger accusations.  Mansoor takes Steel head-on in his announcement email: “My decision-making process started a few months ago, when I was approached by many residents and local leaders who suggested I run to replace John [Moorlach]. One of their biggest concerns was that the only major candidate for this office recently moved to Orange County from LA for the sole purpose of running for Orange County Supervisor in hopes of furthering her ambition of running for Congress if/when Congressman Dana Rorhabacher retires.

Mansoor has also proven that he can defeat candidates with gobs of cash, after having defeated a challenge by Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle in 2012 despite her campaign’s vast financial resources from many wealthy contributors, including Charles Munger Jr.

Steel will also likely face accusations of supporting Larry Agran ally and Democrat Sukhee Kang in a past election.

This is the first of what I expect to be a couple of big announcements in the coming weeks with John Moorlach set to officially announce his candidacy for Congress in the very near future. Mansoor sent out an e-mail announcing the following:

Friends:

As you probably know, I’ve been thinking about running for Orange County Supervisor for several months. I want you to be among the first to know that I’ve decided to run.

John Moorlach has been a great voice for the 2nd District. As a longtime Costa Mesa resident and the County Treasurer who helped Orange County recover from the bankruptcy, he has very strong ties to our community, and his thoughtful and reasoned approach has been an asset in the county. I’m sorry to see term limits force him from office.

My decision-making process started a few months ago, when I was approached by many residents and local leaders who suggested I run to replace John. One of their biggest concerns was that the only major candidate for this office recently moved to Orange County from LA for the sole purpose of running for Orange County Supervisor in hopes of furthering her ambition of running for Congress if/when Congressman Dana Rorhabacher retires.

I’ve always been the first to admit that fundraising isn’t my greatest strength, and even though I’ve always raised enough to be be competitive, I’ve been outspent in every election I’ve run. This campaign won’t be any different, especially against a candidate whose greatest strength is her ability to raise money from interests outside the district.

So this wasn’t an easy decision. It required careful deliberation and long talks with family, friends, and supporters.

Ironically, this campaign reminds me of my first campaign for city council. In 2002, I ran against entrenched establishment incumbents because a group of people from my neighborhood felt like city hall didn’t care about what was happening in our community. While everyone wanted to improve city hall, no one wanted to run. I, somewhat reluctantly, stepped up because someone had to. Ever since, I’ve been happy and grateful for the opportunity to make a difference in the community I grew up in.

Now, more than 10 years later, the community I love has chosen me to represent them not only for two terms on the City Council, but also for two terms in the State Assembly. The easiest path would be to cruise to reelection to a third term in the Assembly, but no one else is ready or willing to stand up and fight to make sure that our community has local representation on the Board of Supervisors.

It will be a lot of work. But I’m ready for it, and I hope to have your help and support. You can start by making a financial contribution by clicking here. Whatever you can contribute, whether it’s $10, $100, or $1000 will help. If you’d like to volunteer, or contact your neighbors, or host a coffee, let me know by replying to this email.

With gratitude,

Allan

P.S. If you would rather mail a check instead of making an online donation by clicking here, you can send a check to Mansoor for Supervisor 2014, 2973 Harbor Blvd #571, Costa Mesa, CA 92626.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

OC Reps. Have Rank To Demand Benghazi Answers

Posted by Erich Breitenbucher on May 14, 2013

When I requested blog privileges, I really thought I was going to focus on education and waste in California state government.  But these Benghazi hearings have got me so upset I just felt like I needed to start with the hot topic of the day.  Especially because it’s not being treated like the hot topic of the day. Let’s face it.  It is really the most important issue we’ve had in decades.  And here is why, Hillary.  It matters because if people were incompetent and Navy SEALs ambassadors died – we need those mistakes corrected. If security was ignored to achieve political goals and lies were told to cover up the mistakes – those people need to be thrown out of government for good.

And here in Orange County we have several members of Congress who are in a unique position to get answers on many of these questions.

Chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Republican Congressman Darrell Issa

San Clemente, Dana Point, San Juan Capistrano, Coto de Caza and Ladera Ranch Congressman Darrell Issa is, of course, the central Republican figure in the investigation as the Chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Previously, Issa served on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the Foreign Affairs Committee.  Issa knows his stuff.

Loretta-Sanchez-w_VeteransRanking Member on the House Armed Services Committee Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee, Democrat Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez is always happy to tell you how she’s the highest ranking female of the Armed Services Committee. Loretta Sanchez is not only on the House Armed Services Committee, she is the Ranking Member on the House Armed Services Committee Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee and she is on the House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.  Loretta Sanchez is also on the Committee on Homeland Security and on the Committee on Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence.  Rep. Sanchez brags that she founded and chairs the Congressional Caucus on Women in the Military and serves on the Congressional Military Families Caucus.  She couldn’t be in a better position to get real answers on who is responsible for the Benghazi cover-up.

Alan-Lowenthal-w_VeteransHouse Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade member, Democrat Congressman Alan Lowenthal

Congressman Alan Lowenthal is a member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, where he sits on the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats.  He also is a member of the Veterans Jobs Caucus.  Every veteran that shows up for an Alan Lowenthal job fair should demand answers for their fellow Americans killed and put in harms way at the Benghazi consulate on September 11, 2012.

Senior member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and Chairman of the Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia and Emerging Threats, Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher

Congressman Rohrabacher is a senior member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. He serves as Chairman of the Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia and Emerging Threats and as a member of the Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and the Global Environment.

Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Republican Congressman Ed Royce

Representative Ed Royce became the Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs in January 2013.  He is serving his 11th term in Congress, representing Southern California’s 39th district.  As a longtime active member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Royce is known for his knowledge of many different regions of the world and analytical foresight into key U.S. foreign policy issues. Immediately prior to becoming Chairman of the Committee, Royce served as Chairman of the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade and a member of the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific.

OC Congressman John Campbell is known more for his expertise on finance than National Security, but if any funding is blocked for departments that are stonewalling on Benghazi answers (hypothetically of course,) I’m sure Campbell wouldn’t hesitate to participate as a Republican member of the House Committee on the Budget.

And lastly for Orange County, is Loretta Sanchez’s sister, Linda.  No one trusts Democrat Congresswoman Linda Sanchez near anything important, but she could show an interest as a member of the Congressional Victim’s Rights Caucus.

And as we look to our neighbors in Riverside County, I’m sure we can count on diligent support of our military from Congressman Ken Calvert.  But how will freshman Democrat Congressmen Mark Takano and Raul Ruiz react?  Will they help deflect attention from the real questions or will they demand an open and honest government that lives up to its hype as the “most transparent?”  Let’s look at the Riverside County Congressional representatives’ committee memberships.

Riverside County Republican Congressman Ken Calvert

Rep. Calvert serves on the House Committee on Appropriations and is a member of the Subcommittees on Defense; Interior and the Environment; and Energy and Water.  Rep. Calvert also serves on the House Committee on the Budget.

Riverside County Democrat Congressman Mark Takano

Not even one year into his first year in Congress, Mark Takano serves on the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs and his website says that “Securing our nation from foreign threats, including terrorism, must be a priority of Congress. It is critical that our military personnel have the equipment, resources, and support they need to protect this country.”  Does 20 hours for jet fuel to send in a rescue team sound to you like we “have the equipment, resources, and support they need to protect this country” ?  Me neither.

and lastly…

Riverside County Freshman Democrat Raul Ruiz

Dr. Ruiz currently serves on the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs.  Maybe as a doctor himself, Ruiz can find an interest in answering if local Democrat Congressmen even care that our Ambassador died in a Benghazi hospital controlled by Al Queda? (And that they used him as bait to try and kill more Americans?)

Even though the Los Angeles/Orange County local television coverage of the Benghazi hearings has been as lacking and nonexistent as the national coverage of the Benghazi hearing, these lies are eventually going to exposed to the public – as long as we keep asking questions.  The questions are too big and the consequences have been too horrible to ignore forever.  We will really see which of the Democrats are liberals which of the Democrats are just partisan liars.  I hope to track on this blog the lies told by the Orange County Democrat Members of Congress to cover-up Benghazi.  I also hope to track on this blog which Democrats are willing to be honest about mistakes made and inconvenient truths that need to be told.

How long does it take to get jet fuel in southern Europe or North Africa? And what efforts were made to ask other counties for assistance? Did Hillary change the security level at the Benghazi consulate?  If the CIA talking points on the day of the attack, had only an attack and Al Queda mentioned, but no protest in Benghazi or video, why did both President Obama and Hillary tell Pat Smith (the mother of Sean Smith, killed in Benghazi) 3 days later that the reason for the attack was the video?Image

Pat Smith told FoxNews on May 13 that Obama, Hillary, Panetta and Susan Rice all hugged her and told her “Face to face, nose to nose” that the video was to blame for he son’s death.  We now know, that the President, Hillary, Panetta  and Rice all knew that this was not true – and they lied to the face of a mother who had lost her son.  Every political activist that wants to honor the memory of Sean Smith in the appropriate way that the President, Hillary, Panetta  and Rice will not, by finding out the truth, need to pull out your iPhone at the next community coffee or town hall and ask one of these tough questions.  Post the answers on YouTube.  Eventually Democrats will have to admit so many facts that are damaging to the above mentioned 4 officials that they will start to denounce the actions and call for their removal.  Or the local Democrats will lie and cover up and the mountain of evidence on YouTube and social media will force them to go down with the Obama/Hillary ship on this series of poor security decisions and lies.

But if Jay Carney thinks we will forget about this story as just old news, I can assure you that we will NEVER FORGET.  Let’s roll.  We have some tracking to do…

 ###

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Forgot Some Electeds: Party Affiliation Part 2

Posted by Chris Emami on March 23, 2013

A reader just sent me a new database that included some elected officials that I forgot about the first time around. These offices would be Congress, Senate, and Assembly which I cannot believe I forgot. Take a look at the short but informative database of these elected officials that represent at least a portion of Orange County.

IntraPartyElephantDonkey

Here you go:

Office Name Party Year

Congress

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 38th DISTRICT Linda Sanchez (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 39th DISTRICT Ed Royce (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 45th DISTRICT John Campbell (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 46th DISTRICT Loretta Sanchez (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 47th DISTRICT Alan Lowenthal (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th DISTRICT Dana Rohrabacher (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 49th DISTRICT Darrell Issa (R) 2014

Senate

STATE SENATE 29th DISTRICT Bob Huff (R) 2016
STATE SENATE 30th DISTRICT Ron Calderon (D) 2014
STATE SENATE 34th DISTRICT Lou Correa (D) 2014
STATE SENATE 36th DISTRICT Mark Wyland (R) 2014
STATE SENATE 37th DISTRICT Mimi Walters (R) 2016

Assembly

STATE ASSEMBLY 55th DISTRICT Curt Hagman (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 65th DISTRICT Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 68th DISTRICT Don Wagner (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 69th DISTRICT Tom Daly (D) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 72nd DISTRICT Travis Allen (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 73rd DISTRICT Diane Harkey (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 74th DISTRICT Allan Mansoor (R) 2014

Posted in 29th Senate District, 34th Senate District, 36th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, State Assembly, State Senate | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

OC’s New Republican Congressmen Vote 3-1 Against Fiscal Cliff Deal; Old Ones Voted 3-2 in Favor

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 3, 2013

In a far-too-brief summary of the fiscal cliff deal: income taxes increased on people making more than $400,000 (couples over $450,000), tax deductions phase out for individuals making more than $250,000 (couples over $300,000), payroll taxes increased on people making more than $50,000, the death tax was increased from 35% for estates over $5.12 million to 40% for estates over $5 million, the Earned Income Tax Credit was expanded, college tuition tax credits were extended for five years, and federal unemployment benefits were extended for a year.

The vote on the fiscal cliff provides an interesting illustration of the impact of redistricting on Orange County’s Congressional representation.

fiscalcliffolddist

How the Representatives of the Old Congressional Districts Voted on the Fiscal Cliff Deal

fiscalcliffvotes

How the Representatives of the New Congressional Districts Voted on the Fiscal Cliff Deal

The old OC delegation voted 5-2 in favor of the fiscal cliff deal while the new OC delegation voted 4-3 against the fiscal cliff deal, with the new 8th member not yet seated.

More interestingly, the old districts had Republicans 3-2 in favor of the deal with the Democrats at 1-0 while the new districts have Republicans 3-1 against the deal with the Democrats at 2-0.

Ed Royce (R-Fullerton), Linda Sanchez (D-Cerritos), and Loretta Sanchez (D-Santa Ana) voted in favor of the fiscal cliff deal.

John Campbell (R-Irvine), Darrell Issa (R-Vista), and Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) voted against the fiscal cliff deal.

(Newly Elected Congressman Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach) will not take take office until later this morning.)

Congressmen Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar) and Ken Calvert (R-Corona) represented portions of Orange County until yesterday but now represent exclusively Inland Empire districts.  Miller and Calvert both voted for the fiscal cliff deal.

Posted in 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, National | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Live from OC GOP Endorsements Committee

Posted by Chris Nguyen on October 1, 2012

Republican Party of Orange County

All of the recommendations of the Endorsements Committee tonight must be ratified by the Central Committee on October 15. (The Central Committee can and does overturn recommendations from the Endorsements Committee.)

The OC GOP Central Committee confirmed a set of early endorsements in August and regular endorsements in September.  Here are those endorsements, so far.

Tonight, the OC GOP Endorsements Committee meets to make recommendations to the OC GOP Central Committee for late endorsements to be made at the October 15 OC GOP Central Committee meeting.

These late endorsements were either because the candidates submitted late applications or the decision was delayed by either the Central Committee or the Endorsements Committee (San Clemente’s Jim Dahl and San Juan Capistrano’s Sam Allevato and Ginny Kerr were delayed while the rest were late applications).

6:27 PM – The committee gains a quorum 27 minutes late.  Thank you, traffic.

San Juan Capistrano City Council

6:29 PM – Candidate Kim McCarthy says she’s 51 after briefly struggling to remember her age.  She states that incumbent Sam Allevato voted for a $30 million bond that increased property taxes and has needlessly borrowed money to pay for city expenses that should have come from reserves.  She worked at the Pontiac Motor Plant to work her way through Wayne State University.  After Wayne State, she worked on commission basis.  McCarthy says she wants respect for constituents’ money.  She says she will not vote for bonds nor for any grants, matching or non-matching.  She says she wants to help raise property values.

6:32 PM – Candidate Roy L. Byrnes is a physician by training has lived in Orange County since 1959 and was elected to the San Juan Capistrano City Council in 1972 and voluntarily retired in 1976 to spend more time teaching at UCI and on his medical practice.  He expresses his concern about the leftward shift of City Councils in San Juan Capistrano, most recently led by Sam Allevato.  Byrnes urges the committee to not “take the easy way out” by refusing to endorse.  He says the city’s residents are 40% Democrats, and the Democrats do not bother to field a candidate because they’re happy with Allevato.  (OC Political fact check: 26.6% of San Juan Capistrano’s registered voters are Democrats.)  He says if the OC GOP fails to endorse, the Democrats will win.

6:35 PM – Central Committee Member Norm Dickinson says McCarthy supported and contributed to Democrat Laura Freeze.

6:37 PM – A resident says there is hostility to religion on the City Council with the effort to tax religious schools and requiring these religious schools offer scholarships and build trails, which is an intrusion of government upon the school.  He cites the City Council’s requirement that only councilmembers can give the invocation, which “sounds like a state religion.”

6:39 PM – San Juan Capistrano Planning Commissioner Rob Williams speaks in opposition to Kim McCarthy because he says she only says negative things about the city even when he says the facts contradict her.  He says McCarthy not only contributed money but also walked precincts for Democrat Laura Freeze, who unseated Joe Soto, the CRA/OCGOP-endorsed candidate.

6:41 PM – A resident speaks of the high water rates in San Juan Capistrano.  He says there’s a $100 million debt, including a water department with a now-$6 million debt (previously $8 million).  He says he voted for Democrat Freeze because her supporters hoodwinked him into thinking she was a fiscal conservative and that Freeze fooled many others.

6:43 PM – McCarthy states she gave two $250 checks to Freeze, who had told her she was a fiscal conservative with a financial background.  McCarthy notes she’s endorsed by SOCRA and Family Action PAC, as is Byrnes.  She says she would never support or vote for Freeze again.

6:45 PM – Byrnes says he and McCarthy are not politicians, just Republicans trying to do the best they can.  He says that “evil triumphs” when the good do nothing, and that’s the reason the OC GOP should endorse in this race to prevent the Democrats from capturing one of the Council seats.

6:47 PM – Endorsements Committee Member Mary Young expresses her concern about candidates who simply attack their opponents but do not explain what they will do as Councilmembers.  Young expresses her concern that McCarthy failed to disclose her support for Freeze on the endorsements questionnaire in the section that asked about support of Democrats.

McCarthy accused Young of making her mind up before the meeting.

Endorsements Committee Chair Mark Bucher cuts off both McCarthy and Young.

6:48 PM – Endorsements Committee Member Thomas Gordon asks how Planning Commissioner Williams had voted on the religious school taxation issue.

After dodging the question for a while, Williams says he voted for the tax.

6:49 PM – Endorsements Committee Member Mary Young speaks and Candidate Kim McCarthy starts shouting over her, with each demanding that the other show respect.  Young states and McCarthy shouts about how hard they work on the Central Committee and as a candidate, respectively.  (OC Political wishes we had a camera going.)  McCarthy rises out of her seat as the male Endorsements Committee members have facial expressions of concern about a potential physical confrontation.

6:50 PM – Endorsements Committee Member Mary Young makes a motion to endorse nobody.  It dies for lack of a second.

6:51 PM – Endorsements Committee Member Thomas Gordon expresses his disappointment in the fighting.  He says he received numerous phone calls from legislators and other elected officials, and that he is insulted that Allevato couldn’t show up for the meeting when he requested the endorsement while Gordon drove 60 miles from his office to be here.

6:53 PM – Endorsements Committee Member Chandra Chell says a first-time candidate does not have a voting record, so we can only take a candidate at their word.

6:54 PM – Discussion ensues as the committee notes several people who gave money to Democrats were endorsed by the OC GOP Central Committee.

6:55 PM - Endorsements Committee Chair Mark Bucher expresses his disappointment at the way McCarthy conducted herself toward Endorsements Committee Member Mary Young.  However, Bucher says he is completely unimpressed with McCarthy’s opponents who were absent despite saying they would be present.  Bucher also expresses his concern about the need for elected officials to show restraint.  Bucher expresses concern about Allevato’s support of the impact fee imposed on religious schools, which Bucher says is simply a tax by another name.

6:56 PM - Endorsements Committee Member Thomas Gordon echoes Bucher’s disappointment about McCarthy’s treatment of Young, but he still plans to vote to recommend McCarthy for endorsement and hopes she wins the election.  He says if she gets the endorsement, she represents the Republican Party, and she hopes to represent the people of San Juan Capistrano.  If she reacts like that to Young, she may do the same to constituents, which will reflect badly upon both the Republican Party and the City of San Juan Capistrano.

6:58 PM – The vote is 2-1-1 (Gordon and Chell in favor, Young against, and Bucher abstaining) to recommend the endorsements of McCarthy and Byrnes.

I don’t know what they said, but McCarthy and Young spoke and shook hands after the vote.

Laguna Niguel City Council

6:59 PM – At the urging of Endorsements Committee Member Chandra Chell and Central Committee Member Norm Dickinson, the committee unanimously recommends Jerry McCloskey for endorsement, noting McCloskey’s endorsements by myriad conservatives, including Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming.   (McCloskey isn’t here, as he has a scheduling conflict with a city commission.)

San Clemente City Council

7:00 PM – Jim Dahl notes he is a 16-year City Councilman and speaks of his family, including his son in the USMC and granddaughter who is on the TV show Parks & Recreation.  He speaks of his roles on the OC Vector Control District Board, OC Fire Authority, and Transportation Corridor Agencies.  He says he is endorsed by Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, Supervisor Pat Bates, Supervisor Bill Campbell, and the Lincoln Club of Orange County.  He notes his city’s AAA bond rating, parks and beaches.  He closes, “We wish San Juan would give us more sand.”

7:02 PM – Endorsements Committee Member Mary Young asks about how many people are running for how many seats.

7:02 PM – Dahl says there are two slots with five candidates.

7:03 PM – Central Committee Alternate Jennifer Beall notes Dahl endorsed John Alpay in the 2010 Capistrano Unified School District recall and again in this 2012 general election.  Beall notes Alpay is an official endorsement against Prop 32.  She says Dahl has “spit in the face” of the party for twice backing Alpay against OC GOP-endorsed candidates.

7:05 PM – Central Committee Member Norm Dickinson speaks in favor of Dahl, citing his property rights record as the only council member backing the CA GOP position on a San Clemente ballot measure.

7:06 PM – Dahl says he considers Alpay a friend and considers it a matter of honor and will not withdraw his endorsement of Alpay.

7:07 PM – Endorsements Committee Member Chandra Chell asks how can Dahl reconcile being a fiscal conservative with endorsing Alpay (the only candidate running for his trustee area in the 2010 CUSD recall).

7:08 PM – Endorsements Committee Chair Mark Bucher says the target of the 2010 CUSD recall was the OC GOP-endorsed candidate.

7:09 PM – Endorsements Committee Member Mary Young speaks of Beall being the top Republican activist in the CUSD.

7:10 PM – Endorsements Committee Member Thomas Gordon expresses concern about Dahl endorsing Alpay against the OC GOP-endorsed candidate in both 2012 and 2010 (and implicitly for the 2010 recall).

7:11 PM – Endorsements Committee Chair Mark Bucher says a 2012 endorsement of Alpay might be forgivable, but a 2010 endorsement is not.

7:11 PM – No one makes any motion regarding Dahl, so the Committee moves on.

Mesa Consolidated Water District, Division 1

7:12 PM – Endorsements Committee Member Chandra Chell speaks in favor of Eric Bever based on his record as a Costa Mesa Councilman and his role as part of Righeimer’s team.  The committee votes unanimously to recommend Bever for endorsement.

Municipal Water District of Orange County, Division 6

7:13 PM – Incumbent Jeffrey Thomas praises the work of the Endorsements Committee and of OC GOP Executive Director Scott Loenhorst.  He says they should never be yelled at.  Thomas was appointed to the seat three years ago when his predecessor had been flown to a board meeting on a Metropolitan Water District of Southern California plane from his La Quinta home (far outside MWDOC).  Thomas was appointed to replace the carpetbagger.  Thomas won a two-year term in 2010 and is up for re-election this year.  He fought the state’s $13 billion water bond and will fight the 2013 water bond that will likely be $14 billion.

7:15 PM – The Endorsements Committee votes unanimously to recommend Thomas for endorsement.  Thomas pledges not to stay an argue.

Huntington Beach Union High School District, Full Term

7:16 PM – Candidate John Briscoe speaks against a $250 million bond in the Ocean View School District, a $27 million technology bond in Fountain Valley School District, and a $927 million bond in the Coast Community College District that doesn’t build any schools.  He says the incumbents are “tiny-R” Republicans who brag about their endorsements by the unions, and the unions will spend $100,000 to buy those two seats.

7:19 PM – Endorsements Committee Member Thomas Gordon asks if Briscoe is endorsed by Huntington Beach City Councilman (and former Huntington Beach Union High School District Board Member) Matt Harper.

7:20 PM – Briscoe says Harper would have endorsed him had he run for the short-term two-year seat instead of one of the two full-term four-year seats.  He says he is endorsed by Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, Assemblyman Jim Silva, and former Assemblymen Van Tran and Chuck DeVore.

7:20 PM - The Endorsements Committee votes unanimously to recommend Briscoe for endorsement.

Irvine City Council

7:20 PM – In response to an inquiry from Central Committee Alternate Scott Peotter, Endorsements Committee Chair Mark Bucher notes that because Christina Shea and Lynn Schott are already endorsed for the two Council seats in Irvine, so the Endorsements Committee has no ability to take action on Evan Chemers.  Bucher says there is also inadequate notice.  He says a Chemers endorsement can be considered by the whole Central Committee who can endorse more candidates than spots and who would have adequate notice.

7:22 PM – The Endorsements Committee adjourns.

Posted in Huntington Beach Union High School District, Laguna Niguel, Mesa Consolidated Water District, Municipal Water District of Orange County, Republican Central Committee, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

2012 General Election Predictions: 48th Congressional District

Posted by Chris Emami on September 12, 2012

After looking at a one of the most competitive seats in California yesterday, we know go back to the boring and obvious. In this case though the boring and obvious looks to be a good thing for Republicans.

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

As you can see from the map Republicans not only hold a 17% registration advantage over Democrats, but Democrats are holding just a slim 7% advantage over DTS voters. With DTS voters leaning more conservative in this area it leads to what will likely be one of the slam dunk races in Orange County.

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has held this seat for a while and has strong name ID especially in Huntington Beach & Costa Mesa which are the 2 largest cities in the district. Ron Varasteh just simply does not have the name ID.

Results in the primary also show that Rohrabacher is in a strong position to win with over 65& of the vote:

United States Representative; District 48

  • Dana Rohrabacher, Republican ………. 73,302 votes 66.3%
  • Ron Varasteh, Democratic ………. 31,912 votes 28.9%
  • Alan Schlar ………. 5,355 votes 4.8%

Varasteh ran directly in line with voter registration for his party and with Schlar running as a DTS candidate his votes will likely split between Rohrabacher and Varasteh.

Fundraising also is an advantage for Rohrabacher as when I tried to pull up the financial numbers for Ron Varasteh on the FEC website it informed me that he had no information to report. Rohrabacher reports over $280,000 cash on hand after the primary.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Dana Rohrabacher

Posted in 48th Congressional District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Atlas PAC May 2012 Newsletter & Voter Guide

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 18, 2012

This came over the wire from Atlas PAC on Wednesday (and was re-sent to us by a helpful reader yesterday)…

Atlas PAC Newsletter & Voter Guide   May 16, 2012 
In This Issue
Calendar of Events
Candidate Forum Photos
Stop the Special Interest Money Now Event
June Primary Voter Guide
Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s Show

Calendar of Events

Stop the Special Interest Money Now Reception

May 23, 2012

Irvine, CA

Del Mar Day at the Races

July 28, 2012

San Diego, CA

The Atlas PAC Board
Lee M. Lowrey
ChairmanChandra Chell
Vice ChairmanDave BartelsJohn Draper

Mary DreyerKurt English
Kathryn FeatherJoe Ludlow

Jeff Mathews

Walter Myers III

Ben Pugh

Stephanie Olsen

Sarah Soss

Mike Tripp

Candidate ForumCandidate Forum 98aCandidate Forum 46aCandidate Forum 45a

Candidate Forum 30a

Candidate Forum 48a

Candidate Forum 103a

Candidate Forum 70a

Candidate Forum 94

Candidate Forum 68a

Like us on Facebook

 Dear,

With the June Primary Election just around the corner, Atlas PAC has updated our list of endorsed candidates for local, state and national elected office.  As always, we will continue to present to our membership candidates that practice our core values of limited government, free market, low taxation, and individual liberty.
Join us this month as we host a fundraising reception for the Stop the Special Interest Money Now Initiative featuring columnist Steve Greenhut and Chapman Law School Professor John Eastman.    Please mark your calendar for our upcoming events and we hope to see you soon.

Atlas PAC Mission Statement

The Atlas PAC mission is to create an environment of business professionals that believe in the ideals of limited government, free market enterprise, low taxation, and individual liberty to associate, network, and socialize with like-minded individuals. Through this association, the Atlas PAC supports like-minded candidates and issues through its monetary and political support.

StopSpecialInterest v4A

June Primary Voter Guide
National Ted Cruz - U.S. Senate, TXJeff Flake - U.S. Senate, AZ

George Allen - U.S. Senate, VA

Josh Mandell - U.S. Senate, OH

Richard Mourdock - U.S. Senate, IN

Jason Chaffetz - US Congress, UT

Eric Cantor - US Congress, VA

Paul Ryan - US Congress, WI

Allen West - US Congress, FL

Michele Bachmann - US Congress, MN

California

 

Tom McClintock - U.S. Congress District 4

Tony Strickland - U.S. Congress District 26

Ed Royce - U.S. Congress District 39

John Webb - US Congress District 45

Jerry Hayden - US Congress District 46

Gary DeLong - US Congress District 47

Dana Rohrabacher - US Congress District 48

Darrell Issa - US Congress District 49

Duncan Hunter, Jr. - US Congress District 50

Bill Emerson - State Senate District 23

Bob Huff - State Senate District 29

Jeff Miller - State Senate District 31

Mimi Walters - State Senate District 37

Tim Donnelly - State Assembly District 33

Mike Morrell - State Assembly District 40

Curt Hagman - State Assembly District 55

Eric Linder - State Assembly District 60

Joe Ludwig - State Assembly District 61

Chris Norby - State Assembly District 65

Craig Huey - State Assembly District 66

Phil Paule - State Assembly District 67

Don Wagner - State Assembly District 68

Diane Harkey - State Assembly District 73

Allan Mansoor - State Assembly District 74

Rocky Chavez - State Assembly District 76

Carl DeMaio - San Diego Mayor

Proposition 28 - No

Proposition 29 - No

Orange County   

Janet Nguyen - OC Supervisor, District 1

Robert Hammond- Orange County Board of Education, Area 1
Ken Williams- Orange County Board of Education, Area 3
Greg Sebourn - Fullerton City Council

Ethan Temianka - Mesa Water District

Orange County Republican Party Central Committee

55th AD - Tim Shaw, Jim Domen, Desare Ferraro

65th AD - Baron Night, Shawn Nelson, Greg Sebourn, Steve Hwangbo, Henry Charoen, Pat Shuff

68th AD - Jon Dumitru, Ken Williams, Lynn Schott, Walter Myers III, Mark Bucher, Denis Bilodeau

69th AD - Thomas Gordon, Charles Hart, Robert Hammond, Lupe Moreno, Cuong Sinh Cao

72nd AD - Janet Nguyen, Dean Grose, Matthew Harper, Mark McCurdy, Dennis Catron, John Briscoe

73rd AD - Chandra Chell, Mike Munzing, Mary Young, Tony Beall, Linda Barnes, Greg Woodard, Jon Fleischman

74th AD - Pick among the following:  John Draper, Jeff Mathews, Allan Bartlett, John Warner, Bill Dunlap, Scott Baugh, Scott Peotter, Rhonda Rohrabacher, Emily Sanford, Christina Shea, Don Hansen, T.J. Fuentes

Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s SoCal Insider Show
Walter Myers III Participates in Occupy Vs. Tea Party Debate
walter - rick reiff show
Click to watch video
Atlas PAC Director Walter Myers III debates with an Occupy Los Angeles activist.  Watch as they discuss what their protest movements represent as well as their respective sides’ take on taxes, government, and capitalism.  Decide for yourself who the clear winner is for this debate.
About Atlas PAC

Atlas is a politically based membership organization made up of business, political, and community professionals who share a passion for free enterprise, limited government, reduced government regulatory burdens, low taxation, and individual liberty. Atlas furthers its ideals by funding candidates and causes who aggressively advocate the values of Atlas.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Fullerton, Mesa Consolidated Water District, Orange County Board of Education, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 48th Congressional District

Posted by Chris Emami on April 12, 2012

Now back to the boring and obvious races for Congress, we move on to the 48th Congressional District which covers coastal Orange County.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat is currently a Republican stronghold with a 17 point registration advantage. Also, in 2008 and 2010 Republicans one every single major race in this district. Even after redistricting took place, it is clear that this seat is not in play. DTS voters in this district almost outnumber Democrats, lagging by just 7 points in registration.

Incumbent Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has represented a portion of this district as part of his old one. He also picks up some of the old parts of the old John Campbell district. With the amount of name ID he has it will be very tough to see a candidate put up a serious fight in this race.

I don’t know why, but I genuinely dislike his website. My hope is that he switches to something a little bit less busy.

His challengers include:

Ron Varasteh an Engineer/Small Businessman who is running as a Democrat.

Alan Schlar a Marketing Sales Executive who is running with No Party Preference.

The factors at play- Dana Rohrabacher is the only viable candidate in this race for a large number of reasons, including name ID, campaign experience, party affiliation, ballot designation, etc…

Between the other candidates running it comes down to a couple of factors. Do Democrats turn out to vote at a higher rate than DTS voters? Do Republicans who perhaps are more moderate vote for the (NPP) candidate instead of Rohrabacher or Varasteh.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Dana Rohrabacher & Ron Varasteh

Posted in 48th Congressional District | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

OC CRA Endorsing Convention Recap

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 24, 2012

For those of you who don’t want to wade through my live play-by-play of the OC CRA endorsing convention, here’s a list of all the endorsements from this morning.

(By the way, the play-by-plays with the most fireworks were in the Spitzer-Pauly race for the 3rd Supervisorial District and the Edgar-Pham battle for the endorsement in the 72nd Assembly District.)

Congressional Endorsements:

  • CD-38: LA County CRAs will sponsor that endorsing convention
  • CD-39: Congressman Ed Royce by voice vote
  • CD-45: No endorsement (effectively, a 50/50 split occurred, as Congressman John Campbell blocked businessman John Webb’s  endorsement without being present)
  • CD-46: Businessman Jerry Hayden won 11 of the 12 votes cast in the first round.
  • CD-47: No endorsement actually got more votes than any candidate.
  • CD-48: Congressman Dana Rohrabacher by voice vote
  • CD-49: Congressman Darrell Issa by voice vote
State Senate Endorsements
  • SD-29: Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff endorsed by voice vote
  • SD-37: Senator Mimi Walters endorsed by voice vote

State Assembly Endorsements

  • AD-55: Assemblyman Curt Hagman endorsed by voice vote
  • AD-65: Assemblyman Chris Norby endorsed by voice vote
  • AD-68: Assemblyman Don Wagner endorsed by voice vote
  • Ad-69: No endorsement
  • AD-72: Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar captured the endorsement in the second round over Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham, who actually led in the first round of balloting
  • AD-73: Assemblywoman Diane Harkey endorsed by voice vote
  • AD-74: Allan Mansoor endorsed by voice vote

Supervisorial Endorsements

  • 1st Supervisorial District: Supervisor Janet Nguyen endorsed by voice vote (of course, her sole opponent is convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco, who is registered as no party preference)
  • 3rd Supervisorial District: Todd Spitzer endorsed in second round over Deborah Pauly after a fairly spirited discussion

Orange County Board of Education Endorsements

  • Area 1: Robert Hammond endorsed by voice vote
  • Area 3: OCBE Trustee Ken Williams endorsed by voice vote

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working for Assemblyman Chris Norby. Also, OCBE candidate Robert Hammond and OCBE Trustee Ken Williams are clients of Custom Campaigns. Norby, Hammond, and Williams were all endorsed by voice vote.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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