A Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge ruled earlier today that teacher tenure is unconstitutional. We will have a deeper analysis of this ruling later today. H/T to the Sacramento Bee for posting this story.
Posted by Chris Emami on June 10, 2014
Posted by Chris Emami on June 9, 2014
In my effort to keep our readership happy and provide some interesting content on the blog while we all wait for the filing period for the November General Election to commence, I will be giving an analysis of each race (not including races with a Custom Campaigns client in it) detailing what happened. Each race will be analyzed with an Orange County perspective in mind.
I will be waiting a few weeks on my analysis of the race for California State Controller because the race is ridiculously close between 2nd-4th place and I want to know for sure who is advancing before I analyze this one. On a side note Chris Nguyen has informed me that he will be doing his analysis of different races with heads on the map (he did these in 2012).
We will start by taking a look at the race for Governor. Under the Prop 14 rules the top two candidates advance to number regardless of how high a percentage the top vote getter receives. This is good news for Neel Kashkari who advances to November but faces a steep uphill battle. Here are the statewide results on the race:
|Akinyemi Agbede (Party Preference: DEM)||30,469||
|*||Edmund G. “Jerry” Brown (Party Preference: DEM)||1,970,995||
|Richard William Aguirre (Party Preference: REP)||30,215||
|Andrew Blount (Party Preference: REP)||78,173||
|Glenn Champ (Party Preference: REP)||65,638||
|Tim Donnelly (Party Preference: REP)||543,817||
|Neel Kashkari (Party Preference: REP)||710,881||
|Alma Marie Winston (Party Preference: REP)||39,223||
|Luis J. Rodriguez (Party Preference: GRN)||53,220||
|Cindy L. Sheehan (Party Preference: P&F)||42,731||
|“Bo” Bogdan Ambrozewicz (Party Preference: NPP)||12,204||
|Janel Hyeshia Buycks (Party Preference: NPP)||9,965||
|Rakesh Kumar Christian (Party Preference: NPP)||9,217||
|Joe Leicht (Party Preference: NPP)||7,815||
|Robert Newman (Party Preference: NPP)||36,699||
These results show Tim Donnelly running fairly closely to Neel Kashkari statewide but surprisingly in conservative Orange County Kashkari had a much wider margin of victory over Donnelly as can be seen by the results:
|Completed Precincts: 1856 of 1856|
|* EDMUND G. “JERRY” BROWN||114,481||38.3%|
|RICHARD WILLIAM AGUIRRE||3,215||1.1%|
|CINDY L. SHEEHAN||2,965||1.0%|
|ALMA MARIE WINSTON||2,941||1.0%|
|LUIS J. RODRIGUEZ||2,299||0.8%|
|“BO” BOGDAN AMBROZEWICZ||900||0.3%|
|RAKESH KUMAR CHRISTIAN||753||0.3%|
|JANEL HYESHIA BUYCKS||588||0.2%|
Looking at results from the different cities in Orange County Neel Kashkari managed to finish ahead of Donnelly in all but one city. I was shocked to see that the city Tim Donnelly finished ahead of Neel Kashkari in was Santa Ana of all places by a margin of over 500 vote (vote counting is not quite over yet).
Statewide though Jerry Brown dominated most counties however it was Tim Donnelly and not Neel Kashkari that pulled off a win in a couple of counties (Modoc & Lassen). Here is a map from the Secretary of States website that shows the winners by county.
Donnelly ran a more grassroots campaign relying on members of the tea party and other conservative groups to help spread his message spending a grand total of $585,000 on the race including the following major categories of expenditures (expenditures are through 5-17-2014):
Campaign Literature/Mailings $9,000
Campaign Paraphernalia/Miscellaneous $4,000
Kashkari definitely ran a more aerial campaign as can be seen from his campaign finance reports were he spent over $2,500,000 on the race including the following major categories of expenditures (expenditures are through 5-17-2014):
Campaign Literature/Mailings $237,000
Campaign Paraphernalia/Miscellaneous $9,000
Jerry Brown is clearly waiting for November with his campaign spending less than $100,000 in June.
At the end of the day numbers don’t lie and Jerry Brown is in a very strong position going forward to November. Despite low Democratic turnout Brown managed to capture over 50% of the vote statewide. Kashkari is going to be attacked by Jerry Brown in messaging to conservatives (who already were likely in the Donnelly camp) that Kashkari voted for Obama and ran TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program). With increased voter turnout in November for Democrats and the possibility of some conservative voters sitting out this race Jerry Brown is at a definite advantage going into the November election. Financially Brown has over $20,000,000 cash on hand while Kashkari has just $1,400,000 which is a substantial deficit to start things off.
I am not going to make a prediction on this race though because Neel Kashkari did run a much stronger campaign than Donnelly and despite facing tough odds against Jerry Brown the CRP has been a bit revitalized with Jim Brulte doing an excellent job since taking over. I look forward to seeing Kashkari run a much stronger and more competent campaign than Meg Whitman did in 2010 (he can start by keeping the axe off of future mailers).
Posted by Chris Emami on June 6, 2014
I’ve been waiting to do this post since last election and after receiving a mailer on Tuesday June 3rd at around 2:30 I finally can.
The Citizens For Good Government slate mailer arrived in Anaheim Hills on Tuesday June 3rd and also arrived at a clients house in Orange the same day. I will note that Chris Nguyen received this slate mailer on Saturday. Generally, any slate that arrives after the Monday before election day is completely wasted since a majority of people will vote before they get the mail that day.
Here is a copy of the infamous mailer:
On a side note, I understand putting Ronald Reagan and Abraham Lincoln on the mailer but Dwight Eisenhower just feels out-of-place.
Posted by Chris Emami on June 5, 2014
Chris Nguyen posted a humongous grid of endorsements that broke down all the major organizations and what candidates they endorsed for non-partisan offices in Orange County. You can take a look at his humongous grid of endorsements here. As a follow-up I have done the math on how the endorsed candidates fared in the Tuesday election and have given credit to an organization for endorsing a candidate that either won outright or advanced to the November election.
Here is a guide to the abbreviations: OC GOP = Republican Party of Orange County, DPOC = Democratic Party of Orange County, CRA = California Republican Assembly, HJTA = Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, CWLA = California Women’s Leadership Association, OC Tax = Orange County Taxpayers Association, OCBC = Orange County Business Council, and CTA = California Teachers Association.
|OC GOP||DPOC||OC Register||Lincoln Club||Atlas PAC||CRA||Family Action PAC||HJTA||CWLA||OC Tax||OCBC||CTA||OC Labor Federation||Evolve||Women in Leadership||Planned Parenthood|
|# of Winners||10||1||13||9||8||10||5||5||7||11||2||1||3||0||1||1|
|# of Losers||2||6||4||3||2||2||1||0||0||1||2||1||4||2||1||2|
Anybody that got 75% and higher can be considered an organization with a valuable endorsement but the big winners from this election cycle were the California Women’s Leadership Association (Orange County Chapter) and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association both of which managed to endorse no losers.
Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 4th Supervisorial District, 5th Supervisorial District, Anaheim, Buena Park School District, Democrat Central Committee, Irvine Unified School District, Orange County, Orange County Assessor, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education, Orange County Clerk-Recorder, Orange County Public Administrator, Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Al Mijares, Allan Mansoor, Atlas PAC, Bob Vu, California Republican Assembly, California Teachers Association, California Women's Leadership Association, Carmen Luege, Carolyn Inmon, Claude Parrish, David Boyd, Democratic Party of Orange County, Derek Johnson, Elizabeth Parker, Eric Woolery, Evolve, Family Action PAC, Frank Davies, Frank Ury, Fred Fascenelli, Gary Pritchard, Greg Diamond, Helen Hayden, Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, hugh nguyen, Ira Glasky, James Benuzzi, Jeff Ferguson, Jim Moreno, Joanne Motoike, Joe Carchio, Joe Williams, John Willard, Jorge Lopez, KC Jones, Kevin Haskins, Lincoln Club, Linda Lindholm, Lisa Bartlett, Measure A, Measure B, Measure C, Measure D, Measure E, Michelle Steel, Mike Dalati, Monica Maddox, Orange County Business Council, Orange County Labor Federation, Orange County Register, Orange County Taxpayers Association, Planned Parenthood, republican party of orange county, Robert Ming, Rudy Gaona, Sandra Hutchens, Shari Freidenrich, Shawn Nelson, Steve Rocco, Thomas Martin, Tom Pollitt, Tony Rackauckas, Wayne Philips, Webster Guillory, Women in Leadership | 2 Comments »
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 4, 2014
This came over the wire from the campaign of District Attorney-Public Administrator Tony Rackauckas…
District Attorney-Public Administrator Tony Rackauckas Statement on Landslide Re-Election
“I am grateful to the People of Orange County for once again entrusting me to defend victims’ rights, protect citizens from dangerous gang members and violent sexual predators, and fight against fraudsters who steal people’s dreams by embezzling their life savings. I have been privileged to have been a public servant for more than 40 years, and have loved every job, but I can honestly say being District Attorney is the most rewarding responsibility I have ever held. Orange County citizens can count on me to continue to vigorously fight for them and fairly administer justice. The credit for all of these achievements go to the hard working men and women of the Orange County District Attorney’s Office, our law enforcement partners and the courageous victims and witnesses.”
Paid for by Rackauckas for District Attorney 2014. ID# 970780.
Posted by Craig P. Alexander on June 4, 2014
Chris Emami reported on the CRA Slate Mailer Newspaper a few days ago (CRA) which CRA Vice President Dale Tyler and I put together with some able help from former CRA Treasurer John Fugatt. Obviously I believe it is the best of the slate mailers newspaper (it is open only to CRA endorsed candidates).
Assuming there are no upsets with the provisional ballot count, 100% of the candidates who placed articles / ads in the mailer either won their races or advanced to the run off in November. Congratulations to Diane Harkery, Eric Woolery, Linda Lindholm, Robert Ming, Bill Brough, Jeff Ferguson and Tony Rackauckas for your win and thank you for believing in our mailer!
Posted in 5th Supervisorial District, 73rd Assembly District, Board of Equalization, Dana Point, Laguna Niguel, Orange County, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education, Orange County Board of Supervisors, Orange County District Attorney's Office, Uncategorized | Tagged: Bill Brough, California Republican Assembly, CRA, Diane Harkey, Eric Woolery, Jeff Ferguson, Linda Lindholm, Robert Ming, Tony Rackauckas | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 4, 2014
As expected, it was a busy night in yesterday’s primary election. Here’s a rundown of the top 10 stories:
- AD-74: Keith Curry and Matt Harper Advance, Emanuel Patrascu Last – Emami called it, mostly. Thanks to Karina Onofre spoiling the Democratic vote for Anila Ali, we have an all-Republican battle for AD-74 to replace Assemblyman Allan Mansoor. Shockingly, Emanuel Patrascu who had the second most money in AD-74 came in fifth while Harper who spent next to nothing (and what he did spend focused on slate mailers) came in a comfortable second. This comes down to a Newport vs. Huntington battle in the November runoff, as Newport Beach Councilman Curry fights it out with Huntington Beach Mayor Harper for the Assembly seat. How much in Republican resources will be drained by the AD-74 race in November, as Republicans seek to capture SD-34 and AD-65 from the Democrats?
- AD-73: Bill Brough Wins GOP Nomination, Anna Bryson Last – In this safe Republican seat, Bill Brough’s low-budget operation demonstrated that precinct walking does work for winning open seats. With Democrat Wendy Gabriella advancing to the runoff with Brough, he is the prohibitive favorite to be the next Assemblymember from the 73rd District and the district’s first Assemblyman in 16 years after Assemblywomen Patricia Bates, Mimi Walters, and Diane Harkey. Depending on completion of vote counts for absentees and provisionals, Anna Bryson’s IE-laden campaign may have cost well over $100 per vote. (To put the massive IE spending for Bryson in perspective, here’s how much spending would have been needed for several other candidates in other races to match that rate: Michelle Steel would have needed $2.4 million, Linda Lindholm $3.1 million, and Eric Woolery $11.0 million.) This race clearly demonstrated: money can’t buy everything.
- AD-55: Ling-Ling Chang Captures Top Spot – In a brutal slugfest between Diamond Bar Councilwoman Ling-Ling Chang and Walnut Valley Unified School District Trustee Phillip Chen with Diamond Bar Councilman Steve Tye threatening to play spoiler, well-funded Chang managed to overcome very-well-funded Chen’s financial advantage to capture the top spot with 28% of the vote, pushing Chen into third place with 23% of the vote and Tye with 22% of the vote. Democrat Gregg Fritchle came in second with 28% of the vote. In this safe Republican district, Chang is the prohibitive favorite to be the next Assemblymember from the 55th District, replacing Curt Hagman.
- SD-34: Janet Nguyen Captures Majority of Votes Cast; Republicans Take Almost 2/3 of Votes Cast – It was a foregone conclusion that Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen would be the Republican nominee against the Democrats’ nominee, former Assemblyman Jose Solorio, in the hotly-contested SD-34. What is shocking is that despite the presence of Republican former Orange County Board of Education Trustee Long Pham on the ballot, Nguyen still managed to capture 52% of the vote to Solorio’s 34% in the two-county SD-34 race. Pham captured 14%. With Republicans capturing nearly 2/3 of the vote, and Nguyen herself capturing 52%, this builds significant momentum for Nguyen heading into the November race, with Republicans turning to Nguyen to break the Democrats’ supermajority in the State Senate and Democrats turning to Solorio to preserve the Democrats’ Senate supermajority. (For the record, I am not related to Janet Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)
- Orange County Board of Education: Linda Lindholm Unseats 32-Year Incumbent Giant Slayer Liz Parker – For the last few years, there was a joke in education circles that the way to win an Assembly seat was to lose an Orange County Board of Education race to Liz Parker. Chuck DeVore lost to Parker in 1990 and won an Assembly seat in 2004. Don Wagner lost to Parker in 1998 and won an Assembly seat in 2010. However, Parker is done. After nearly a 1/3 of a century in office, Liz Parker has been unseated by Laguna Niguel Mayor Linda Lindholm. No elected official in Orange County has held the same office longer than Liz Parker. (Indeed, Parker graduated from college the same month she was elected to the Orange County Board of Education.)
- Auditor-Controller: Eric Woolery’s Unprecedented Majority – In a five-way race with no incumbent for Auditor-Controller, Orange City Treasurer Eric Woolery won nearly 57% of the vote, nearly 40% better than the second-place candidate, Deputy Auditor-Controller Frank Davies, who won 17% of the vote. In a race with three or more candidates with no incumbent, there has not been a candidate who has won by such a large margin in at least 30 years and, quite possibly, ever. Indeed, there was only one candidate in those incumbent-free, 3+ candidate races who even averted a runoff: David Sundstrom, who received 50.3% of the vote for Auditor-Controller in 1998. (Anaheim Mayor Tom Daly won 41% of the vote in a five-way race for Clerk-Recorder in 2002 before winning the runoff. Assistant Public Administrator Vicki Landrus won 41% of the vote and College Trustee John Williams won 36% of the vote in a four-way race for Public Administrator in 2002; Williams won the runoff. OC Internal Auditor David Sundstrom won 50.3% of the vote in a three-way race for Auditor-Controller in 1998. OC Assistant Assessor Webster Guillory won 26% of the vote in a seven-way race for Assessor in 1998 before winning the runoff.)
- Irvine Unified School District: Ira Glasky Renders Special Election Moot, Beats Agran-Backed Candidate – After IUSD Trustee Gavin Huntley-Fenner resigned due to business and family obligations, the IUSD Board appointed Ira Glasky to fill the seat in November 2013. Utilizing an obscure section of the Education Code, a petition drive gathered the necessary 1,643 signatures (1.5% of registered voters at the 2012 school board election) to invalidate Glasky’s appointment and force a special election. The special election cost IUSD schools hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars. Three candidates filed to run: Glasky, Larry Agran-backed Carolyn Inmon, and Bob Vu. Glasky won 42% of the vote to Inmon’s 37% and Vu’s 22%. IUSD was forced to spend hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars on a special election that had the same end result as if the special election had never happened.
- Assessor: Webster Guillory vs. Claude Parrish Runoff – In 2010, Webster Guillory won 53% of the vote to Claude Parrish’s 47%, but Parrish ran as “Businessman/Tax Consultant” in 2010. Parrish is “Taxpayer Advocate/Businessman” this year. Last night, Guillory won 47% to Parrish’s 43%, with Jorge Lopez getting 10%. Parrish’s stronger ballot designation narrowed the margin between Guillory and Parrish. In Guillory’s favor is the fact that November voters are more favorable to incumbents than June voters. In Parrish’s favor is the fact that he has a stronger ballot designation in 2014 than he did in 2010. Also in Parrish’s favor is the investigation around whether or not Guillory’s nomination papers were signed by his subordinates at the office on County time; if this garners more publicity it helps Parrish; if it fizzles, it’s moot.
- Supe-5: Robert Ming vs. Lisa Bartlett Runoff – The narrative in this race always had business interests spending on IEs for Mission Viejo Councilman Frank Ury to put him into the runoff for the Fifth District Supervisor’s race. The conventional wisdom was wrong, as Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming and Dana Point Mayor Lisa Bartlett each achieved 29% of the vote (Ming ahead of Bartlett by 0.4%), with Ury in third at 24% and Deputy District Attorney Joe Williams last at 18%.
- Supe-2: Steel Beats Mansoor 2-1 as Both Make Runoff – Conventional wisdom held that the Second District Supervisor’s race would result in a runoff between Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel and Assemblyman Allan Mansoor. What wasn’t expected was just how close to 50% Steel would get or how large her margin over Mansoor would be. Surpassing most expectations, Steel pulled off 47% of the vote to Mansoor’s 24%, with Coast Community College District Trustee Jim Moreno at 22% and Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio at 8%.
These honorable mentions were things that happened as expected but may have interesting footnotes:
Honorable Mention #1 – CD-45: Raths Falls Short, Jockeying Begins for SD-37 and Even AD-68 – Republican Retired Marine Colonel Greg Raths fell 4% short of overtaking Democrat Educator/Businessman Drew Leavens to advance to the general election with Republican Senator Mimi Walters. Did Walters’s hit piece (calling Raths a “Bill Clinton Republican” for his assignment to the Clinton White House while serving in the Marine Corps) move the needle 4%? Jockeying for the special election for Walters’s SD-37 seat and even Assemblyman Don Wagner’s AD-68 seat has already begun since Walters is expected to crush Leavens in CD-45 in November.
Honorable Mention #2 – Shawn Nelson: OC’s Biggest Supervisorial Landslide Ever? With 84% of the vote, Supervisor Shawn Nelson’s reelection bid may well be the most lopsided victory ever achieved by an Orange County supervisor (excluding races where a Supervisor was unopposed or a Supervisor’s only opponent was a write-in candidate).
Honorable Mention #3 – Measure A: OC’s Biggest Landslide Ever? – With 88% of voters in casting ballots in favor of Measure A, the measure may well have achieved the highest percentage ever for a ballot measure in Orange County.
In the interest of full disclosure, clients of Custom Campaigns (the consulting firm that owns OC Political) include four IUSD Trustees (story #7: Ira Glasky, Paul Bokota, Lauren Brooks, and Michael Parham), three OCBE Trustees (story #5: Linda Lindholm, Robert Hammond, and Ken Williams), Eric Woolery (story #6), and Robert Ming (story #9). Separate and apart from the consulting firm that owns OC Political, this blogger also did the staff work for Measure A (honorable mention #3).
Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 34th Senate District, 55th Assembly District, 5th Supervisorial District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, Anila Ali, Anna Bryson, Bill Brough, Bob Vu, Carolyn Inmon, Chuck DeVore, Claude Parrish, David Sundstrom, Don Wagner, Drew Leavens, Elizabeth Dorn Parker, Elizabeth Parker, Emanuel Patrascu, Eric Woolery, Frank Davies, Frank Ury, Greg Raths, Gregg Fritchle, Ira Glasky, Janet Nguyen, Jesse Petrilla, Jim Moreno, Joe Carchio, Joe Williams, John Williams, Jose Solorio, Karina Onofre, Keith Curry, Ken Williams, Larry Agran, Lauren Brooks, Linda Lindholm, Ling-Ling Chang, Lisa Bartlett, Long Pham, Matt Harper, Measure A, Measure D, Michael Parham, Michelle Steel, Mimi Walters, Paul Bokota, Paul Glaab, Phillip Chen, Robert Hammond, Robert Ming, Shawn Nelson, Steve Tye, Tom Daly, Vicki Landrus, Webster Guillory, Wendy Gabriella | 5 Comments »
Posted by Marion Morrison on June 2, 2014
The final mailer our household received this Primary came from the California Conservative PAC. Unfortunately they duffed up the mailing list and sent us info on several candidate we can’t even vote for. Whoops! It’ll be interesting to see if anyone winds up in the mailbox tomorrow.
Posted by Scott Carpenter on June 2, 2014
As if the Assembly District 74 race hadn’t been entertaining enough, former GOP stalwart and conservative activist Howard Ahmanson made a late push attacking Keith Curry and attacking Anila Ali, while pumping up Karina Onofre in this mailer sent to democrats:
Ahmanson didn’t stop there, his Fieldsted & Co. has also made contributions to Curry and Ali’s opponents Emanuel Patrascu, Matthew Harper and Karina Onofre. This is quite interesting, it appears Ahmanson is trying to drive a wedge in the Democratic primary and see which viable GOP alternative can advance against Curry. Ahmanson famously left the GOP in 2008 saying the hard line stance against taxes was evidence of misplaced priorities. Interestingly he joined the Democratic Party which is much more in opposition to his social views. Picking Onofre, who claims she is a conservative Democrat, seems to be the “most” in line with the direction he wishes to see the party move. However the more practical purpose of these moves is to see a division in the Democratic primary prevail. About 25 hours from now we will see if it was too little too late.
Posted by Chris Emami on June 2, 2014
The OC Register endorsed in a majority of races on the ballot including a new endorsement that was released this morning for Marshall Tuck a candidate for State Superintendent of Public Instruction. Here is a list of endorsed candidates:
State Superintendent of Public Instruction- Marshall Tuck
O.C. Supervisor, District 2- Michelle Steel
O.C. Supervisor, District 4- Shawn Nelson
O.C. Supervisor, District 5- Robert Ming & Frank Ury (You can only vote for 1)
O.C. Assessor- Claude Parrish
O.C. Clerk-Recorder- Hugh Nguyen
O.C. District Attorney- Tony Rackauckas
Superior Court Judge, Office 20- Helen Hayden
Superior Court Judge, Office 27- Joanne Motoike
Superior Court Judge, Office 35- Carmen Luege
O.C. Board of Education, Trustee Area 2- Tom Pollitt
O.C. Board of Education, Trustee Area 5- Linda Lindholm
Irvine Unified School District Board- Ira Glasky
O.C. Measure A- Yes
Buena Park Measure B- No
Anaheim Measure C- Yes
Anaheim Measure D- No
Anaheim Measure E- Yes
Prop. 41- No
Prop. 42- Yes
To see more details about each of the endorsements click on this link to go to the OC Register website by clicking here. I agree with a majority of the endorsements that they made with a few small differences. It will be interesting to see how each of these candidates fares on Tuesday night.
Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 4th Supervisorial District, 5th Supervisorial District, Anaheim, Buena Park School District, California, Irvine Unified School District, Orange County, Orange County Assessor, Orange County Board of Education, Orange County Board of Supervisors, Orange County Clerk-Recorder, Orange County District Attorney's Office | Tagged: Carmen Luege, Claude Parrish, Frank Ury, Helen Hayden, hugh nguyen, Ira Glasky, Joanne Motoike, Linda Lindholm, Marshall Tuck, Michelle Steel, Robert Ming, Shawn Nelson, Tom Pollitt, Tony Rackauckas | Leave a Comment »