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Needle Moves 0.1% – Moorlach Slightly Widens Lead

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

The second results are in:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 82 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 29,729 49.8%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 26,715 44.7%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,178 3.6%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,084 1.8%

The first results were all ballots received in the mail through today.  12% of all registered voters in SD-37 cast absentee ballots that were received in the mail by the Registrar as of today (absentee ballots can continue to arrive through Friday and still be counted).

This second set are the first 82 precincts of 248 (33.1%).

Moorlach added 861 votes, Wagner added 667, Namazi added 42, and Stewardson added 6.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Run-off? Too Close to Call: Moorlach 49.7%, Wagner 44.8%

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

The first results from early absentees are in:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 0 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 28,868 49.7%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 26,048 44.8%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,136 3.7%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,078 1.9%

 

Unfortunately, they’re inconclusive.  Early absentees show Moorlach ahead of Wagner by 2,820 votes (4.9%). Presumably, with the uptick in negative mail and robocalls, Moorlach should lose ground with poll voters. If voters are turned off by the negative mail and robocalls, it could benefit Namazi of all people because while Wagner went negative earlier, Moorlach went negative late as well.

I fear my prediction of a run-off may be true.

We should have more information from the Registrar’s 9:30 PM update.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Some Last Thoughts on the SD-37 Special Primary Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

All the mail I got for the SD-37 special election.

All the mail I got for the SD-37 special election.

I really hope that I’m wrong about the election going to a run-off on May 19.  I hope whoever comes in first tonight, whether it is Don Wagner or John Moorlach, gets more than 50% of the vote.  A run-off would be bad for both candidates, their campaigns, and the voters.  The candidates and their campaign staffs would have their lives continue to be on hold for another two months, and the voters would be subject to another endless barrage of campaign mail and robocalls (not to mention the $1.974 million price tag to taxpayers for the run-off).

I imagine my aberrant voter behavior contributed to my voter contact level: I’m a poll voter who requested an absentee ballot on the first day you could request one, but then held on to it and surrendered it at the polling place to vote at the poll.

I personally received 11 robocalls, with 10 of them in the last week. The calls were from (in order of receipt):

  • Congressman Ed Royce for Wagner
  • Naz Namazi for herself
  • Supervisor Todd Spitzer for Wagner
  • John Moorlach for himself
  • Supervisor Andrew Do for Wagner (in Vietnamese)
  • Naz Namazi for herself
  • Mayor Tom Tait for Moorlach
  • Senator Janet Nguyen for Wagner (in Vietnamese)
  • Shawn Steel for Wagner
  • Ed Royce for Wagner

Additionally, I was even had a voicemail from Don Wagner personally phone banking.

Mailwise, I received:

  • 5 mailers from Wagner (1 positive in Vietnamese, 2 mostly-positive comparison pieces, and 2 mostly-negative comparison pieces)
  • 2 mailers from Moorlach (1 mostly-positive comparison piece and 1 mostly-negative comparison piece)
  • 3 IEs from AOCDS and the statewide law enforcement union (1 anti-Moorlach piece, 1 pro-Wagner piece, and 1 that was both)
  • 1 IE from the California Homeowners Association (a comparison piece)

The reason this race went so negative so fast is fundamentally, there are no real differences between Wagner and Moorlach.  They will compile virtually identical voting records in the Senate.  When there are no real policy differences, all you can do is go negative.  As Jon Fleischman of the Flash Report put it at the beginning of this election, “The conservatives have already won.”  The only real difference is one of style and priorities, but they’d vote the same, and Martin Wisckol’s piece in the OC Register was spot on.

Usually, when we say there’s no difference between the candidates, it’s a complaint.  In this election, it’s a compliment.  We’ll know the results in a few minutes, and hopefully somebody breaks 50%.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

It’s Election Day in the 37th Senate District

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

Wagner, Moorlach, and Namazi

Business Owner/Assemblyman Donald P. Wagner, former Orange County Supervisor John M. W. Moorlach, and Naz Namazi

At long last, election day has arrived in the 37th Senate District.  Voters in the 37th Senate District can find their polling place here; polls close at 8:00 PM.  Absentee ballots can still be mailed to the Registrar of Voters today, thanks to SB 29 (Correa).

Voters will fill the seat to succeed Mimi Walters, who was elected to Congress, unless neither Don Wagner nor John Moorlach achieves 50% of the vote, in which case Naz Namazi will cost Orange County taxpayers $1.974 million by causing an unnecessary May 19 run-off election.

For those tracking, 54,700 ballots were received by the Registrar of Voters as of Friday.  Of those, 19,655 ballots have come from portions of SD-37 that are in the 2nd Supervisorial District while 24,667 have come from portions of SD-37 that are in AD-68.  10,378 came from portions of SD-37 that are in neither district.  Additionally, another 2,894 ballots arrived yesterday, but location breakdowns are not yet available for those.

Wagner has represented the 68th Assembly District since 2010 and was on the ballot there most recently in both June and November of 2014.  Moorlach represented the 2nd District Supervisorial from December 2006 until January 2015 and was on the ballot there most recently in June 2010.  Moorlach served in Countywide office from March 1995 to December 2006 and was most recently on a Countywide ballot in June 2006.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , | 9 Comments »

Is President Obama Really A Christian?

Posted by Craig P. Alexander on March 15, 2015

This question is asked (and often answered in the negative) a lot on social media when people are either trying to judge the President’s actions and decisions or sometimes when they are expressing their frustration with him.  My normal response to this type of question is I don’t know because I am not the judge of President Obama’s heart – that is God’s job not mine.

David French has written an insightful article about this subject in the National Review entitled (the title is a link to the article) “Is Obama Really A Christian?” I found his article well thought out, respectful and helpful in understanding this President’s decision making.  Is Mr. French correct – well only God knows!  I commend the article to you.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

A Must Read Interview of Gov. Scott Walker

Posted by Craig P. Alexander on March 11, 2015

People who know me know I am a BIG fan of Governor Scott Walker.  I had the honor of meeting Gov. Walker last Monday night (3/9/15).

For so many reasons I admire him and hope he is our next President of the United States.  The biggest reason I like him is he and his fellow Republicans in Wisconsin actually won the Governor’s office and majorities in both state legislative bodies then actually did what they campaigned on instead of “playing it safe.”  In my opinion the reforms they passed have made Wisconsin a much better place to live, work and start a business.  Plus this Governor has taken on the special interests in his state (mostly the labor unions) three times and best them three times so he has proven he is up for a fight politically.

Jon Fleischman of the Flashreport.org did an excellent interview with which is at Breitbart California Interview: Governor Scott Walker.  In this interview Gov. Walker, in a few words, lays out why he and his fellow Republicans did what they did in Wisconsin right after they were elected rather than kicking the can down the road.  He did what I had hoped President George W. Bush would have done when he was elected with Republican majorities in the House and Senate.

While I know Washington, D.C. is not Wisconsin, I believe Gov. Walker, if he becomes President Walker, and has Republican majorities in Congress will demand and lead for change in the federal government towards limited government, more power to the states (and the people) and away from Washington and strengthen our position in the world.  In brief, it is obvious to me Gov. Walker believes in American Exceptionalism.

Kudos to Jon Fleischman for this interview and I highly commend it to you.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

SD-37 Surprise: Naz Namazi Does a Robocall

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 11, 2015

While going through voicemails yesterday, I was shocked to hear a robocall from Naz Namazi.  Considering she had done no noticeable campaigning, I did not expect a robocall one week before Election Day.

Not surprisingly, it’s the worst robocall I’ve ever heard.  Click below to listen to the call or read the transcript:

I’m Naz, N-A-Z, Naz, and I’m running against two men: a liar and a hypocrite.

I am a legal immigrant who’s lived in Orange County for 33 years and graduated from UC Irvine.

I’m Naz, and of course, I approved this message. VoteNaz.org. Vote honesty. Vote Naz.

First, she opens by name-calling against her opponents.  She calls them “a liar and a hypocrite,” but doesn’t bother even saying why they’re “a liar and a hypocrite.”

Next, she rushes through the script so quickly that it’s difficult to tell if she said, “I am a legal immigrant…” or “I am illegal immigrant…”  While readers of this blog are aware she is a legal immigrant, most people listening to the robocall are not.

Also, UC Irvine doesn’t exactly bring up warm fuzzy feelings right now, with their unsuccessful effort to ban the American flag.  If someone misheard “illegal immigrant” and then heard “UC Irvine” in the call, the call is quickly going south.

She doesn’t explain a single issue stance or give any reasons why anyone should vote for her.

Finally, Namazi fails to say who paid for this call, as required by FPPC regulations.  Oddly, she gives half the FEC statement required for candidates for federal office (“I’m Naz, and of course, I approved this message”).  Since she is running for state office, she does not need to say she approved this message.  For either type of message, she has to say, “Paid for by X” (I assume this call was “Paid for by Namazi for Senate 2015″ but can’t rule out anyone else paying for it since she didn’t disclose.)

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: | 4 Comments »

San Juan Capistrano: Where City Councilmen Keep Resigning – well maybe not

Posted by Craig P. Alexander on March 10, 2015

Chris Nguyen reported a few days ago that San Juan Capistrano City Councilman Sam Allevato announced his resignation from the City Council [San Juan Capistrano: Where…].  Apparently Councilman Allevato is having second thoughts about pulling that trigger according to the OC Register [San Juan Capistrano councilman reconsiders resignation].

Although Mr. Allevato lost very badly in the last election (all of his supporters on the council were voted “off the island” so to speak) and he now finds himself at the minority end of some 4 to 1 votes, I can understand having won several elections not wanting to just throw in the towel and walk away.

I would recommend to Mr. Allevato that if he decides to stay on the City Council, he consider that after being in the majority for so long, the voters of his town decided to make some changes – they want the city to go in a different direction than when his group was in the majority.  He should consider that the concerns of the citizens of the City of San Juan Capistrano have expressed via the last election are something he should give some legitimacy too.  I am not saying Mr. Allevato (or anyone else) should throw away his convictions or that he should pander for votes / support on issues he does not believe in.

But as the saying goes “elections have consequences” and being in the minority is not as fun as being in the majority.  However it is the current reality of his council and he should at the very least consider extending the olive branch to his fellow city council members – and they should do the same.

 

Posted in San Juan Capistrano, Uncategorized | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

More Reasons for Assemblywoman Gonzalez to BUTT OUT of the Great Park Audit

Posted by Craig P. Alexander on March 10, 2015

As follow up to my last post on Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez’ attempt to hinder the audit of the Great Park finances [To San Diego Legislators], the OC Register has a follow up article that implicates Gafcon, Inc. in a potential conflict of interest situation.

Apparently, per the new article, during the deposition of former Irvine Mayor Sukee Kang he disclaimed any knowledge that during the planning of the Great Park, “…Stu Mollrich, a partner in public relations firm Forde & Mollrich, a Great Park subcontractor that answered to the Great Park Design Studio, a collaboration between Gafcon and landscape architect Ken Smith….”, that Mollrich had hired Gafcon to oversee the remodeling of Mollrich’s Laguna Beach home.   Mr. Kang expressed surprise at this information as did City Manager Sean Joyce who noted that Great Park Design Studio was supposed to oversee the work of Forde & Mollrich on the Great Park project.

It would appear that Gafcon, Inc. and Forde & Mollrich both neglected to inform the City of Irvine of this arrangement during the time they were working on the Great Park project.  Was this a reportable conflict of interest that the City should have been informed of?  I do not know but this certainly does not pass the smell test of arms length transactions for the benefit of Orange County and Irvine taxpayers on the Great Park project.

If you wish to read the latest article go to Great Park contractors….

The more layers of this onion get pealed back, the more it smells of cronyism and a massive waste of taxpayer funds.   Yet more evidence that Assemblywoman Gonzalez and the other San Diego legislators should simply BUTT OUT of this very needed audit.

Kudos to the City of Irvine council majority Mayor Steven Choi and council members Jeffery Lalloway, Christina Shea and Lynn Schott for continuing with the audit.  The people of Orange County and Irvine deserve answers regarding the Great Park finances.

Posted in Irvine, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Jim Silva: Conservative leaders rightly back Don Wagner for Senate

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 9, 2015

This came over the wire to OC Political earlier today from former Assemblyman/former Supervisor Jim Silva (a slightly edited version was published in the Daily Pilot this afternoon)…

With the special election for state Senate District 37 set for March 17, the familiar lament about negative advertising fills the op-ed pages, blogs and social media sites.

He said this, she said that, he said the other thing, with each of the two front-runners denying the particular charges leveled against them.

So with all this noise, who do you believe? Who is best suited to represent the 37th Senate District in Sacramento?

The answer can be found by looking at the endorsements of the elected officials you know and trust. Assemblyman Don Wagner’s endorsements are a who’s who of Orange County conservative leaders: District Attorney Tony Rackauckas and Sheriff Sandra Hutchens both endorse him as the best candidate to keep our community safe.

Four of the five current county supervisors (Lisa Bartlett, Andrew Do, Todd Spitzer and Michelle Steel), and three of the four who served the last term with candidate John Moorlach (State Senators Janet Nguyen and Patricia Bates as well as Spitzer), have endorsed Wagner as the best candidate to work effectively in Sacramento to pass legislation that helps Orange County and California. Orange County Auditor-Controller Eric Woolery, Assessor Claude Parrish and Clerk-Recorder Hugh Nguyen likewise endorse Wagner.

All three of Orange County’s congressional representatives, Reps. Ed Royce, Mimi Walters and Dana Rohrabacher, the vast majority of the Republican caucus in the state Assembly, and many others round out the overwhelming support Wagner enjoys among those who have worked with him and Moorlach.

The reason for this overwhelming support is simple: Wagner has a well-earned reputation for taking a common-sense approach to the problems that face Orange County and the state and, while maintaining his conservative principles, working across the aisle to get legislation passed and signed by the governor.

That is why Wagner has been recognized as the legislator of the year by the Orange County Republican Party and the Orange County Business Council and has received the Collaborative Lawmaker Award from the Association of California Cities.

Orange County needs a principled and effective leader in the state Senate, and Wagner is that candidate.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

 
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