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Archive for the ‘74th Assembly District’ Category

New State Legislators Sworn in Today

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 1, 2014

California State CapitolIt’s the first Monday in December of an even year, so California’s new and re-elected state legislators will be sworn in today at 12:00 PM.  27 of 80 Assembly Members (33.75%) and 10 of 40 Senators (25%) will be freshmen.

Republicans picked up enough seats to break the Democratic supermajorities in both houses.

Orange County’s delegation will have proportionally even more freshmen, with 4 out of 7 Assembly Members (57.14%) and 3 of 5 Senators (60%) holding their first terms in their respective houses.

While the new Senators already have their official web sites up, the new Assembly Members do not, presumably waiting for the swearing-in at 12:00 PM.

As of 12:00 PM, Orange County’s Assembly delegation will consist of:

  • Ling-Ling Chang (R-Diamond Bar), 55th District (far northern Orange County, southeastern LA County, and Chino Hills) – First Term
  • Young Kim (R-Fullerton), 65th District (northwestern Orange County) – First Term
  • Don Wagner (R-Irvine), 68th District (eastern Orange County) – Third Term
  • Tom Daly (D-Anaheim), 69th District (central Orange County) – Second Term
  • Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach), 72nd District (Orange County’s northern coast and Little Saigon) – Second Term
  • Bill Brough (R-Dana Point), 73rd District (southern Orange County) – First Term
  • Matt Harper (R-Huntington Beach), 74th District (Orange County’s central coast) – First Term

As of 12:00 PM, Orange County’s Senate delegation will consist of:

  • Bob Huff (R-Diamond Bar), 29th District (northern Orange County, southeastern LA County, and Chino Hills) – Midway Through Second Term
  • Tony Mendoza (D-Artesia), 30th District (Buena Park and portions of LA County)
  • Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove), 34th District (central Orange County and portions of Long Beach) – First Term
  • Patricia Bates (R-Laguna Niguel), 36th District (southern Orange County and northern San Diego County) – First Term
  • Mimi Walters (R-Irvine), 37th District (eastern Orange County) – Midway Through Second Term

Walters is still a State Senator, as she will not be sworn into the United States Congress until January.

Posted in 29th Senate District, 30th Senate District, 34th Senate District, 36th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, State Assembly, State Senate | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Moorlach Enters SD-37 Race Against Wagner

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on November 30, 2014

Supervisor John Moorlach made a brief bid for Governor in February 2013 and dropping out four months later (Jerry Brown was re-elected to that seat), announcing a bid for the 45th Congressional District in December 2013 and dropping out three months later (Mimi Walters won that seat), and then flirted with bids for the 74th Assembly District (Matt Harper won that seat) and Auditor-Controller (Eric Woolery won that seat).

Today, Jon Fleischman at FlashReport reported on Supervisor John Moorlach’s entry into the 37th Senate District race against Assemblyman Don Wagner to replace Mimi Walters, who will vacate the seat to head to Congress.  Here’s an excerpt of Fleischman’s report

Both Moorlach and Wagner are conservatives, the former being a bit more iconic because of his prediction of the County of Orange’s bankruptcy back in the 90′s.

Neither Moorlach nor Wagner are known as being prolific fundraisers — though Wagner has had his eye in this seat for some time and starts with a head start.

One big question is whether the presence of two conservative foreshadows a more moderate entry into the race.

If Moorlach can raise (or self fund) 200k or more he would be very formidable for anyone, including Wagner, to beat. But that’s a big if. Moorlach floated a bid for Congress last year and dropped it largely as a function of fundraising challenges. Although he was trying to run against the aggressive Mimi Walters, who is a strong fundraiser.

Here’s an excerpt of Moorlach’s announcement…

In the last week I have been making calls when possible, as there were OCTA and Board of Supervisors meetings and the Thanksgiving holidays.  These calls have been extremely positive and I’m putting a campaign team together for the sprint that is called a special election.

Before I officially announce, I wanted you to know first.  There is only one other announced candidate at this time.  In fact, we did lunch a month ago and he is aware that I’ve been mulling this decision over.  I still need to connect with him to let him know that I am even more strongly leaning in running for this seat.

If you’re happy to endorse or support me, that would be great news.  With your permission, I may even include your name in my official announcement, which I hope to release sometime this week.

Thank you for allowing my wife and I to serve you as a County Treasurer-Tax Collector for nearly twelve years.  Thank you for allowing us to serve in the position of a County Supervisor for eight years; where I had a ball achieving numerous significant accomplishments.  Thank you for being a friend and for being on my e-mail tree.

After I make a formal announcement, I hope to engage you in some form or fashion in achieving a successful result next spring.  Together, let’s shake it up, again.

 

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, 45th Congressional District, 74th Assembly District, California, Orange County, Orange County Auditor-Controller | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Wagner Announces State Senate Bid

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on November 24, 2014

In an announcement that surprises no one, Assemblyman Don Wagner has announced his bid for the State Senate seat being vacated by Senator Mimi Walters, who has been elected to Congress.  Walters and Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff have endorsed Wagner for Walters’s old seat.

The Assemblymember from the other half of SD-37 is unlikely to run, as it is Allan Mansoor, who is too badly damaged from his landslide defeat of 62.3%-37.7% for Supervisor at the hands of Michelle Steel.  Mansoor will be a former Assemblyman by the time the Senate election rolls around early next year, at which point Matt Harper will have replaced Mansoor, but Harper is definitely not running for Senate.

Wagner is such a prohibitive favorite that multiple candidates for Wagner’s seat have already been collecting support to succeed Wagner after his presumptive election to the Senate.  Here is the announcement he sent out yesterday…

ASSEMBLY MEMBER DONALD P. WAGNER RELEASES STATE SENATE CAMPAIGN ANNOUNCEMENT

IRVINE – Assembly Member Donald Wagner (R-68) announced his run for the open 37th State Senate District. Senator Mimi Walters’ election to Congress will leave a vacancy, which will be filled shortly by a special election called by Governor Brown.

“Congratulations to Sen. Mimi Walters on her election to Congress. She has been a fierce advocate for pension reform and a strong ally to small businesses. Her experience and insight in Washington will benefit Orange County, and the entire country,” Wagner said.

“With the support of my family, friends, and numerous community leaders, I am excited to announce my candidacy for that 37th State Senate District seat here in the heart of Orange County,” Wagner said.

Assemblyman Wagner received the endorsement of Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff, Congresswoman-Elect Mimi Walters and many more local elected leaders in the district.

“I am pleased to endorse Don for the 37th Senate district,” said Senator Huff. “Don has been a solid conservative voice during his time in the Assembly. He understands the serious issues we face in the State of California and will provide thoughtful solutions to move us forward.”

“I am sincerely grateful to the voters who have sent me to Sacramento for three consecutive terms in the legislature,” said Wagner. “I turn to them again for their support to continue delivering the conservative, pro-business, limited government message I have championed during my time in State government. I would be honored to continue that work in the California State Senate.”

For more information about his campaign or to receive regular updates, please visit www.wagner4senate.com or contact the campaign at (714) 514-1888.

Posted in 37th Senate District, 68th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

OC’s Top 10 Election Stories

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 5, 2014

Last night was definitely a big night in OC politics.  Here are the top 10 stories:

#1. “Year of the Asian Woman” for OC Republicans – Republican Asian women dominated the electoral landscape last night.  I can demonstrate that with one simple photostrip of winners:

Year of the Asian Woman - 2014

The women in that photostrip are:

  • State Senator-Elect Janet Nguyen
  • State Assemblywoman-Elect Young Kim
  • State Assemblywoman-Elect Ling-Ling Chang
  • OC Supervisor-Elect Michelle Steel
  • OC Supervisor-Elect Lisa Bartlett
  • Yorba Linda Councilwoman-Elect Peggy Huang
  • Cypress School Board Member-Elect Sandra Lee
  • OC Water District Director-Elect Dina Nguyen

These candidates not only won their elections, but seven of the eight won in commanding fashion:

  • Janet Nguyen won 60% of the vote against former Assemblyman Jose Solorio in the most competitive Senate seat in the state.
  • Young Kim defeated incumbent Sharon Quirk-Silva 56%-44% in one of the most competitive Assembly seats in the state.
  • Ling-Ling Chang won 64% of the vote after coming through a grueling primary.
  • Michelle Steel won 62% of the vote in a Supervisorial runoff against Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.
  • Lisa Bartlett won 55% of the vote in a Supervisorial runoff against Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming.
  • Peggy Huang came in first in a six-person field, even coming in ahead of her re-elected incumbent running mate, Tom Lindsey.
  • Sandra Lee came in first in a four-person field, far outpacing three other candidates, who consisted of two incumbents and a former Mayor.
  • Dina Nguyen was the only one with a close race, winning by 45.8%-42.1% in a three-way race for Orange County Water District.

The only Republican Asian woman who lost in Orange County last night was Westminster School Board candidate Bao Anh “Samantha” Nguyen.  (Garden Grove City Council candidate Ruhina Khan is a Democrat.  Laguna Woods City Council candidate Rae Tso and Fullerton Joint Union High School Board candidate Ho Jeong Lim are both NPP.  Republican Cypress School Board Member-Elect Lydia Sondhi is not Asian; Sondhi is her married name.)

#1A. Janet Nguyen and Young Kim Capture OC Swing Seats to Break Democratic Supermajorities – Of the Republican Asian women who won last night, clearly Janet Nguyen and Young Kim’s victories were the biggest stories, as they each struck a blow to the supermajorities held by Democrats in the Senate and in the Assembly.

Janet Nguyen’s 60%-40% victory was so sweeping that she won 8 of the 10 cities in SD-34, losing only Anaheim and Santa Ana (she even won Long Beach).

Young Kim’s 56%-44% victory was so sweeping that she won 5 of the 6 cities in AD-65, losing only Stanton.  Kim is the first Republican challenger to unseat an incumbent Democrat in a legislative race in 20 years.

#1B. Michelle Steel and Lisa Bartlett to Join Board of Supervisors – Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel was widely expected to win the 2nd District Supervisor’s race after crushing Assemblyman Allan Mansoor by 25% in June and almost avoiding a run-off.  She ended up beating Mansoor by 24% in the November run-off yesterday.  Steel’s landslide victory was so strong that she carried every city in the district, including Costa Mesa, where Mansoor had served on City Council and as Mayor; she also won Mansoor’s 74th Assembly District.

Dana Point Mayor Lisa Bartlett was in the toss-up in the 5th District Supervisor’s race after coming in just 2% behind Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming in June.  She ended up beating Ming by 10% in the November run-off yesterday.  Bartlett’s victory was so sweeping that she won every city in the district, except Lyndon Johnson Laguna Niguel (I have no idea why I typed Lyndon Johnson; it was clearly a long election night).

This marks the second time two women will be serving on the Board of Supervisors concurrently (the first time is actually the present day wherein Supervisors Janet Nguyen and Pat Bates are serving concurrently).  This is the first time two Asian Americans will serve concurrently on the Board of Supervisors.

#2 AD-74: Matt Harper Defeats Keith Curry, Even Winning Newport Beach – With independent expenditures helping Huntington Beach Mayor Matt Harper overcome Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry’s massive fundraising advantage, Harper won by 18% yesterday after coming in 3% behind Curry in June.  Harper’s victory was so sweeping that he won 5 of the 6 cities in AD-74, losing only Laguna Woods. To add insult to injury for Curry, Harper even won 55% of the vote in Newport Beach.

#3 Major Changes in Anaheim – Voters in the County’s biggest city cast their ballots on a number of meaty issues.  First, 68% of Anaheim voters approved switching from the current at-large Council election system to a vote-by-district system.  53% of Anaheim voters approved increasing the size of the Council from 5 to 7 (Mayor and 6 Council members).

Anaheim Mayor Tom Tait was easily re-elected, with 54.1% of the vote in a four-way race, outpacing the nearest candidate. Tait ally James Vanderbilt appears to have defeated Anaheim Councilwoman Gail Eastman, thereby shrinking the 4-1 majority against Tait to a 3-2 majority instead.

#4 Irvine Forms Republican Supermajority, Ousting Larry Agran – In a sweeping victory, Republicans won every seat on yesterday’s ballot for Irvine City Council.  Mayor Steven Choi was re-elected.  Council candidate Lynn Schott came in first, and Councilman Jeff Lalloway came in second place to win re-election.  Democrat Larry Agran, who lost control of the Council majority in 2012, found himself in fourth place, falling behind even his own ally Melissa Fox, who fell 0.4% short of winning a Council seat.  Republicans now wield a 4-1 supermajority in Irvine.

#5 Republicans Take Huntington Beach – In another sweeping victory, Republicans swept all four seats available on the Huntington Beach City Council, unseating incumbent Democrats Joe Shaw and Connie Boardman.  (The other two seats are held by termed-out Republican Joe Carchio and Assemblyman-Elect Matt Harper.)  This sweep replaces the liberal majority with a conservative majority on the Huntington Beach City Council.

In the Huntington Beach City Attorney’s race, conservative Republican Michael Gates unseated Republican incumbent Jennifer McGrath.

#6 Yorba Linda Supermajority Against YLRRR – In yet another sweeping victory, the slate of Peggy Huang and Tom Lindsey won both seats on the ballot in Yorba Linda.  For the first time since it began fielding candidates in 2006, Yorba Linda Residents for Responsible Representation failed to win any Council seats in an election.  YLRRR held a Council majority from 2008-2012 and even held a supermajority from 2010-2012.  YLRRR has a pesky habit of turning on the people they formerly supported (no fewer than three Councilmembers backed by YLRRR over the past eight years found themselves targeted for defeat by YLRRR).

With YLRRR-backed Councilmen Mark Schwing and John Anderson, YLRRR found themselves one seat short of a majority this year.  They launched an ambitious recall bid to try to gain a Council supermajority.  With the October recall defeated by the voters, the November re-election of Tom Lindsey, and the November election of Peggy Huang (see story 1 above) to replace the retiring John Anderson, YLRRR’s ambitious bid for a 4-1 supermajority in 2014 has ended with them on the losing end of a 4-1 supermajority, with only Schwing in office.  This could well spell the beginning of the end for YLRRR.

#7 Newport Beach Clean Sweep – In one more sweeping victory (anyone notice a recurring theme in these stories?), the slate of Duffy Duffield (of Duffy Boat fame), Kevin Muldoon, and Scott Peotter captured the three contested Newport Beach City Council seats (Diane Dixon won the uncontested District 1 seat).  In the District 3 seat, Duffield even managed to unseat Mayor Rush Hill by a stunning 2-1 margin.  Duffield, Muldoon, and Peotter pledged to bring fiscal responsibility to Newport Beach City government, opposing the dock tax and expensive new City Hall.

#8 Rancho Santa Margarita Eliminates Council Minority – In possibly the County’s most sweeping victory, the two-man Rancho Santa Margarita Council minority has been eliminated.  Majority Councilmembers Tony Beall and Carol Gamble were not on the ballot this year.  Three seats were on the ballot this year.  Majority Councilmember Brad McGirr was re-elected.  Candidates Jerry Holloway (himself a former Councilmember) and Mike Vaughn were elected to replace minority Councilmembers Steve Baric and Jesse Petrilla.  Baric was simply retiring and was not seeking a second term.  Petrilla (who had run unsuccessfully for the Assembly in June, coming in second among Republicans to Beall-backed Bill Brough) was running for re-election but ended up 3.7% behind third-place Vaughn who captured the last Council seat.  Additionally, voters rejected Measure Z, an initiative to change the zoning classification of Rancho Santa Margarita’s former Nissan site, by a margin of 54%-46%.  The Council minority had supported Measure Z while the Council majority opposed it.  The newly elected candidates both opposed Measure Z.  As with Anaheim, Newport Beach, and Yorba Linda, the majority and minority members on this year’s ballot are all Republicans.

#9 Unions Strengthen Grip on Capistrano Unified School District and Ocean View School District – In a rare liberal sweeping victory in Orange County, the teachers’ union won all three seats on the ballot in the Capistrano Unified School District, growing their 5-2 supermajority into a 6-1 supermajority, leaving Jim Reardon as the sole trustee to oppose the teachers’ union.  Union-backed Martha McNicholas defeated OC Political blogger Craig Alexander for the Trustee Area 4 seat being vacated by the retiring Anna Bryson.  Union-backed incumbent Lynn Hatton beat back a challenge by Julie Collier in Trustee Area 7.  Most surprisingly, in Trustee Area 6, union-backed Gila Jones unseated incumbent Ellen Addonizio, and Jones won by a larger margin than McNicholas or Hatton did.  (Jones was the Democrat who ran against Republican State Senator Mark Wyland in 2010.)

In the Ocean View School District, union-backed Jack Souders and Joseph Gaglione won two of the three seats up for election this year, unseating incumbents Tracy Pellman and John Ortiz.  While Souders and Gaglione were openly backed by the union, Pellman and incumbent John Briscoe (who won the other seat up for election) each accused the other of being secretly backed by the union.

#10 Claude Parrish Unseats Assessor Webster Guillory – In only the second time in the last half-century, a sitting Countywide elected official has been defeated for re-election.  With controversies over his nomination signature collection and three felony charges from the District Attorney related to the nomination signature collection, incumbent Webster Guillory was unable to survive a challenge from former Board of Equalization Member Claude Parrish.  Guillory had defeated Parrish 53%-47% in 2010.  In this 2014 rematch, Parrish defeated Guillory by the same 53%-47% margin.  (The last time a Countywide elected official lost a re-election bid was when John Dean unseated six-term incumbent County Superintendent of Schools Robert Peterson in 1990.  No one else has lost since at least the mid-1960s.)  With Republican Parrish replacing NPP Guillory as Assessor and Republican Eric Woolery replacing Democrat Jan Grimes as Auditor-Controller, Republicans will hold every Countywide office for the first time in recent memory.

Honorable Mention: Special Elections on the Way – With the elections of Supervisor Janet Nguyen to the State Senate and State Senator Mimi Walters to Congress, there will now be a flurry of special elections.  Early in 2015, special elections will need to be held to fill the remaining two years on Nguyen’s Supervisorial term and Walters’s Senate term.  In the likely event that an Assemblymember wins the race to replace Walters, another special election will be triggered in mid-2015 to fill the Assembly seat.

Honorable Mention: City Treasurers and Board of Equalization – Two Secret Paths to Power – It’s quite interesting what useful platforms City Treasurer’s seats and Board of Equalization seats can be for gaining other elected offices:

  • November 2010: Huntington Beach City Treasurer Shari Freidenrich elected Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector, defeating Deputy Treasurer
  • June 2014: Orange City Treasurer Eric Woolery elected Orange County Auditor-Controller, defeating Deputy Auditor-Controller
  • November 2014
    • Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel elected an Orange County Supervisor, defeating Assemblyman
    • Former Board of Equalization Member Claude Parrish elected Orange County Assessor, defeating incumbent
    • Brea City Treasurer Glenn Parker elected a Brea City Councilman, defeating incumbent
    • Placentia City Treasurer Craig Green elected a Placentia City Councilman, defeating incumbent

On a related note, State Controller-Elect Betty Yee is the second consecutive Board of Equalization Member to be elected State Controller. Eight years ago, Board of Equalization Member John Chiang was elected State Controller, and last night, he has been elected State Treasurer.

Honorable Mention: Mimi Walters Elected to Congress – This doesn’t merit reaching the top 10 because it was a foregone conclusion that Senator Mimi Walters would crush Democrat Drew Leavens in the 45th Congressional District.  The real contest was in June when Walters managed to be the top Republican vote-getter and ensured a Democrat made the top two.  The only reason this gets an honorable mention is because of how rare it is to have a new Member of Congress.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 34th Senate District, 45th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 5th Supervisorial District, 65th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Board of Equalization, Capistrano Unified School District, Cypress School District, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Newport Beach, Ocean View School District, Orange County, Orange County Assessor, Orange County Water District, Rancho Santa Margarita, Yorba Linda | 4 Comments »

MY RECOMMENDATION FOR ASSEMBLY: MATTHEW HARPER by Kurt English

Posted by Craig P. Alexander on November 3, 2014

My friend Kurt English requested that I post his recommendation and reasons for those recommendations for the 74th Assembly District race between Newport Beach City Councilman Keith Curry and Huntington Beach Mayor Matthew Harper. Kurt’s article is printed below:

I have researched the candidates and I recommend MATTHEW HARPER for California State Assembly.

I have known both Keith Curry and Matthew Harper for a number of years. But my recommendation is based on their track records and stands on issues, not on personalities.

UNION MONEY & KEEPING PROMISES

Keith Curry is a member and a board member of Lincoln Club, a Republican donor group. The Lincoln Club requires candidates to sign a pledge not to take money from unions prior to getting their endorsement. Curry signed that pledge. Before the June 2014 primary, the Lincoln Club endorsed Curry.

Later I was shocked to hear that the Lincoln Club rescinded Curry’s endorsement for violating his pledge not to take union money. As a board member, Curry knew the rules.

Curry’s willingness to sign a pledge to get an endorsement and then ignore his commitment reveals a troubling integrity issue. This is especially disappointing for someone who teaches at a Christian college.

Curry’s willingness to break his pledge is another worrisome indication that Curry would vote for big compensation and pensions for government workers. Under Curry’s watch as a council member, Newport Beach had two lifeguards making over $200,000 a year.

BIG SPENDING ON CITY COUNCIL

I have written extensively in the Newport Beach Independent about the gross overspending on the Newport Beach City Hall totaling $297 million of costs, including interest. Keith Curry voted for that spending binge.

405 TOLL ROADS

Curry supported converting lanes in the over-crowded 405 freeway into toll lanes, while Harper wants to keep all 405 lanes free.

BEACH FIRE RINGS

Fire rings have been part of Orange County’s beach life style for decades. Curry voted to restrict the use of Newport Beach’s iconic beach fire rings. Harper opposes any bans on beach fire rings.

TAX PER MILE DRIVEN

Keith Curry supported a tax on every mile we drive our cars. Harper opposes that tax.

DOCK TAX

Keith Curry voted for the infamous Newport Beach dock tax as a council member.

PRESERVING PROPOSITION 13

Newport’s dock tax violates Proposition 13’s limitation on property taxes. Curry’s support of the dock tax undermines his campaign promises to preserve Proposition 13. I believe Harper would be more reliable in defending Proposition 13.

SUMMARY

Keith Curry supports too many new taxes and has voted to spend irresponsibly on the council. Curry has been involved in too many mismanaged problems like the rescinded endorsement and the overpriced city hall,.

Matt Harper’s record shows more support for lower taxes, less government spending and regulation, and more personal freedom than does Keith Curry’s record. Matt Harper is the better choice for Assembly Election Day November 4, next Tuesday.

Links:

http://www.flashreport.org/blog/2014/05/13/ad74-watch-oc-lincoln-club-yanks-endorsement-of-keith-curry/

http://ocpolitical.com/2013/12/04/breaking-news-keith-curry-jumps-into-ad-74-race/

http://www.ocregister.com/orangepunch/lifeguards-490717-beach-newport.html

http://www.dailypilot.com/opinion/tn-dpt-me-0726-commentary-20140725,0,4482849.story http://www.ocregister.com/articles/curry-638840-beach-harper.html

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/curry-638840-beach-harper.html

http://savenewport.com/2014/09/19/prop13-violations/

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

OC’s Top 10 Primary Election Stories

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 4, 2014

Eric Woolery, Robert Hammond, Linda Lindholm, and Ken Williams

OC Board of Education Group Photo at the Custom Campaigns June 3 Election Night Party at BJ’s in Irvine:
Auditor-Controller-Elect/Orange City Treasurer/Former OCBE Trustee Eric Woolery, OCBE Trustee Robert Hammond, Laguna Niguel Mayor/OCBE Trustee-Elect Linda Lindholm, and OCBE Trustee Ken Williams.

Woolery achieved a historic margin of victory in his race for Auditor-Controller (story #6) while Lindholm knocked off Orange County’s longest-serving-in-a-single-office incumbent (story #5). 

As expected, it was a busy night in yesterday’s primary election.  Here’s a rundown of the top 10 stories:

  1. AD-74: Keith Curry and Matt Harper Advance, Emanuel Patrascu LastEmami called it, mostly.  Thanks to Karina Onofre spoiling the Democratic vote for Anila Ali, we have an all-Republican battle for AD-74 to replace Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.  Shockingly, Emanuel Patrascu who had the second most money in AD-74 came in fifth while Harper who spent next to nothing (and what he did spend focused on slate mailers) came in a comfortable second.  This comes down to a Newport vs. Huntington battle in the November runoff, as Newport Beach Councilman Curry fights it out with Huntington Beach Mayor Harper for the Assembly seat.  How much in Republican resources will be drained by the AD-74 race in November, as Republicans seek to capture SD-34 and AD-65 from the Democrats?
    .
  2. AD-73: Bill Brough Wins GOP Nomination, Anna Bryson Last – In this safe Republican seat, Bill Brough’s low-budget operation demonstrated that precinct walking does work for winning open seats.  With Democrat Wendy Gabriella advancing to the runoff with Brough, he is the prohibitive favorite to be the next Assemblymember from the 73rd District and the district’s first Assemblyman in 16 years after Assemblywomen Patricia Bates, Mimi Walters, and Diane Harkey.  Depending on completion of vote counts for absentees and provisionals, Anna Bryson’s IE-laden campaign may have cost well over $100 per vote.  (To put the massive IE spending for Bryson in perspective, here’s how much spending would have been needed for several other candidates in other races to match that rate: Michelle Steel would have needed $2.4 million, Linda Lindholm $3.1 million, and Eric Woolery $11.0 million.)  This race clearly demonstrated: money can’t buy everything.
    .
  3. AD-55: Ling-Ling Chang Captures Top Spot – In a brutal slugfest between Diamond Bar Councilwoman Ling-Ling Chang and Walnut Valley Unified School District Trustee Phillip Chen with Diamond Bar Councilman Steve Tye threatening to play spoiler, well-funded Chang managed to overcome very-well-funded Chen’s financial advantage to capture the top spot with 28% of the vote, pushing Chen into third place with 23% of the vote and Tye with 22% of the vote.  Democrat Gregg Fritchle came in second with 28% of the vote.  In this safe Republican district, Chang is the prohibitive favorite to be the next Assemblymember from the 55th District, replacing Curt Hagman.
    .
  4. SD-34: Janet Nguyen Captures Majority of Votes Cast; Republicans Take Almost 2/3 of Votes Cast – It was a foregone conclusion that Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen would be the Republican nominee against the Democrats’ nominee, former Assemblyman Jose Solorio, in the hotly-contested SD-34.  What is shocking is that despite the presence of Republican former Orange County Board of Education Trustee Long Pham on the ballot, Nguyen still managed to capture 52% of the vote to Solorio’s 34% in the two-county SD-34 race.  Pham captured 14%.  With Republicans capturing nearly 2/3 of the vote, and Nguyen herself capturing 52%, this builds significant momentum for Nguyen heading into the November race, with Republicans turning to Nguyen to break the Democrats’ supermajority in the State Senate and Democrats turning to Solorio to preserve the Democrats’ Senate supermajority.  (For the record, I am not related to Janet Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)
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  5. Orange County Board of Education: Linda Lindholm Unseats 32-Year Incumbent Giant Slayer Liz Parker – For the last few years, there was a joke in education circles that the way to win an Assembly seat was to lose an Orange County Board of Education race to Liz Parker.  Chuck DeVore lost to Parker in 1990 and won an Assembly seat in 2004. Don Wagner lost to Parker in 1998 and won an Assembly seat in 2010.  However, Parker is done.  After nearly a 1/3 of a century in office, Liz Parker has been unseated by Laguna Niguel Mayor Linda Lindholm.  No elected official in Orange County has held the same office longer than Liz Parker.  (Indeed, Parker graduated from college the same month she was elected to the Orange County Board of Education.)
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  6. Auditor-Controller: Eric Woolery’s Unprecedented Majority – In a five-way race with no incumbent for Auditor-Controller, Orange City Treasurer Eric Woolery won nearly 57% of the vote, nearly 40% better than the second-place candidate, Deputy Auditor-Controller Frank Davies, who won 17% of the vote.  In a race with three or more candidates with no incumbent, there has not been a candidate who has won by such a large margin in at least 30 years and, quite possibly, ever.  Indeed, there was only one candidate in those incumbent-free, 3+ candidate races who even averted a runoff: David Sundstrom, who received 50.3% of the vote for Auditor-Controller in 1998. (Anaheim Mayor Tom Daly won 41% of the vote in a five-way race for Clerk-Recorder in 2002 before winning the runoff.  Assistant Public Administrator Vicki Landrus won 41% of the vote and College Trustee John Williams won 36% of the vote in a four-way race for Public Administrator in 2002; Williams won the runoff.  OC Internal Auditor David Sundstrom won 50.3% of the vote in a three-way race for Auditor-Controller in 1998.  OC Assistant Assessor Webster Guillory won 26% of the vote in a seven-way race for Assessor in 1998 before winning the runoff.)
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  7. Irvine Unified School District: Ira Glasky Renders Special Election Moot, Beats Agran-Backed Candidate – After IUSD Trustee Gavin Huntley-Fenner resigned due to business and family obligations, the IUSD Board appointed Ira Glasky to fill the seat in November 2013.  Utilizing an obscure section of the Education Code, a petition drive gathered the necessary 1,643 signatures (1.5% of registered voters at the 2012 school board election) to invalidate Glasky’s appointment and force a special election.  The special election cost IUSD schools hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars.  Three candidates filed to run: Glasky, Larry Agran-backed Carolyn Inmon, and Bob Vu.  Glasky won 42% of the vote to Inmon’s 37% and Vu’s 22%.  IUSD was forced to spend hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars on a special election that had the same end result as if the special election had never happened.
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  8. Assessor: Webster Guillory vs. Claude Parrish Runoff – In 2010, Webster Guillory won 53% of the vote to Claude Parrish’s 47%, but Parrish ran as “Businessman/Tax Consultant” in 2010.  Parrish is “Taxpayer Advocate/Businessman” this year.  Last night, Guillory won 47% to Parrish’s 43%, with Jorge Lopez getting 10%.  Parrish’s stronger ballot designation narrowed the margin between Guillory and Parrish.  In Guillory’s favor is the fact that November voters are more favorable to incumbents than June voters.  In Parrish’s favor is the fact that he has a stronger ballot designation in 2014 than he did in 2010.  Also in Parrish’s favor is the investigation around whether or not Guillory’s nomination papers were signed by his subordinates at the office on County time; if this garners more publicity it helps Parrish; if it fizzles, it’s moot.
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  9. Supe-5: Robert Ming vs. Lisa Bartlett RunoffThe narrative in this race always had business interests spending on IEs for Mission Viejo Councilman Frank Ury to put him into the runoff for the Fifth District Supervisor’s race.  The conventional wisdom was wrong, as Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming and Dana Point Mayor Lisa Bartlett each achieved 29% of the vote (Ming ahead of Bartlett by 0.4%), with Ury in third at 24% and Deputy District Attorney Joe Williams last at 18%.
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  10. Supe-2: Steel Beats Mansoor 2-1 as Both Make Runoff – Conventional wisdom held that the Second District Supervisor’s race would result in a runoff between Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel and Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.  What wasn’t expected was just how close to 50% Steel would get or how large her margin over Mansoor would be.  Surpassing most expectations, Steel pulled off 47% of the vote to Mansoor’s 24%, with Coast Community College District Trustee Jim Moreno at 22% and Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio at 8%.

These honorable mentions were things that happened as expected but may have interesting footnotes:

Honorable Mention #1 – CD-45: Raths Falls Short, Jockeying Begins for SD-37 and Even AD-68 – Republican Retired Marine Colonel Greg Raths fell 4% short of overtaking Democrat Educator/Businessman Drew Leavens to advance to the general election with Republican Senator Mimi Walters.  Did Walters’s hit piece (calling Raths a “Bill Clinton Republican” for his assignment to the Clinton White House while serving in the Marine Corps) move the needle 4%?  Jockeying for the special election for Walters’s SD-37 seat and even Assemblyman Don Wagner’s AD-68 seat has already begun since Walters is expected to crush Leavens in CD-45 in November.

Honorable Mention #2 – Shawn Nelson: OC’s Biggest Supervisorial Landslide Ever? With 84% of the vote, Supervisor Shawn Nelson’s reelection bid may well be the most lopsided victory ever achieved by an Orange County supervisor (excluding races where a Supervisor was unopposed or a Supervisor’s only opponent was a write-in candidate).

Honorable Mention #3 – Measure A: OC’s Biggest Landslide Ever? – With 88% of voters in casting ballots in favor of Measure A, the measure may well have achieved the highest percentage ever for a ballot measure in Orange County.

In the interest of full disclosure, clients of Custom Campaigns (the consulting firm that owns OC Political) include four IUSD Trustees (story #7: Ira Glasky, Paul Bokota, Lauren Brooks, and Michael Parham), three OCBE Trustees (story #5: Linda Lindholm, Robert Hammond, and Ken Williams), Eric Woolery (story #6), and Robert Ming (story #9).  Separate and apart from the consulting firm that owns OC Political, this blogger also did the staff work for Measure A (honorable mention #3).

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 34th Senate District, 55th Assembly District, 5th Supervisorial District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

AD 74 Watch: Howard Ahmanson Weighs In

Posted by Scott Carpenter on June 2, 2014

As if the Assembly District 74 race hadn’t been entertaining enough, former GOP stalwart and conservative activist Howard Ahmanson made a late push attacking Keith Curry and attacking Anila Ali, while pumping up Karina Onofre in this mailer sent to democrats:Ali1

Ali2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ahmanson didn’t stop there, his Fieldsted & Co. has also made contributions to Curry and Ali’s opponents Emanuel Patrascu, Matthew Harper and Karina Onofre. This is quite interesting, it appears Ahmanson is trying to drive a wedge in the Democratic primary and see which viable GOP alternative can advance against Curry. Ahmanson famously left the GOP in 2008 saying the hard line stance against taxes was evidence of misplaced priorities. Interestingly he joined the Democratic Party which is much more in opposition to his social views. Picking Onofre, who claims she is a conservative Democrat, seems to be the “most” in line with the direction he wishes to see the party move. However the more practical purpose of these moves is to see a division in the Democratic primary prevail. About 25 hours from now we will see if it was too little too late.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Patrascu Hits Curry on the Fire Rings

Posted by Marion Morrison on June 1, 2014

In Saturday’s mail, we received a piece from Emanuel Patrascu, who attacks Keith Curry on his support of removing the fire rings in Newport Beach. It includes a quote from Patrascu’s boss Assemblyman Travis Allen.

Patrascu Hit 1 of 2 Patrascu Hit 2 of 2

Posted in 74th Assembly District, Mail | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Curry Gets Rohrabacher’s Endorsement – Mails to 48th CD Overlay

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 29, 2014

In a targeted mailer, Keith Curry notifies the 74th AD/48th CD overlay that he has received the endorsement of Congressman Dana Rohrabacher.

Curry Positive 1 of 2 Curry Positive 2 of 2

Posted in 48th Congressional District, 74th Assembly District, Mail | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Handicapping The Races: 74th Assembly District (June 2014)

Posted by Chris Emami on May 27, 2014

It is getting worse, Chris Nguyen is likely going to come after me with the butcher knife from the Emanuel Patrascu mailer. Here is my take on the 74th Assembly District race which is open due to Assemblyman Allan Mansoor making an ill-advised run for the 2nd Supervisorial District against Michelle Steel.

Here are the candidates running for AD 74:

  • Karina “Karina” Onofre (D) – Small Business Owner
  • Keith D. Curry (R) – Businessman/City Councilmember
  • Emanuel Patrascu (R) – Orange County Business Owner
  • Matthew Harper (R) – Huntington Beach Mayor
  • Anila Ali (D) – Middle School Teacher

Voter registration heavily favors Republicans, with Republicans having 43% of registered voters in the 74th Assembly District compared to Democrats who hold just 29% of voter registration which is extremely close to the number of No Party Preference voters who hold 23% of the vote. This is an open primary that falls under the rules of Proposition 14, so regardless of percentages, the two candidates with the most votes will advance to the November election. The 74th Assembly District currently has the following cities within its boundaries:

  • Costa Mesa
  • Laguna Beach
  • Laguna Woods
  • Newport Beach
  • Huntington Beach (Portion)
  • Irvine (Portion)

Karina “Karina” Onofre

I have had numerous Democrats call me accusing Republicans of planting Karina Onofre in this race as a Democrat to try and embarrass the Democratic Party. Onofre is a former candidate for Santa Ana City Council. Let’s take a look at her electoral history.

Results from November 2012 (General Election):

CITY OF SANTA ANA Member, City Council, Ward 5
Completed Precincts: 108 of 108
Vote Count Percentage
ROMAN A. REYNA 32,419 61.8%
KARINA ONOFRE 20,065 38.2%

Onofre has major issues with turning her campaign finance reports in on time and has very little money raised ($5,000 raised as of the last report) and I am not considering her $100,000 loan a factor unless she actually starts to spend it. Normally I would say that the Democrat usually would have an excellent shot of advancing to November but Onofre will be splitting votes with fellow Democrat Anila Ali. This leads me to believe that due to Democratic registration being low that with a vote split Onofre and Ali will finish in the last place slots this June.

Nevertheless, Onofre has made this election a lot of fun. Check out these posts from Scott Carpenter; Prepare to be Entertained: The AD 74 “Feet to the Fire” Candidate Forum and AD74 Watch: Karina Onofre Channels Napoleon Dynamite.

Keith D. Curry

Keith Curry is considered the front-runner by most prognosticators at this point. He has the most money and has name ID in one of the largest cities in the district (Newport Beach)

Curry has been on the ballot multiple times in Newport Beach with a very successful track record in getting elected. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.

Results from November 2012 (General Election):

CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 7
Completed Precincts: 89 of 89
Vote Count Percentage
KEITH D. CURRY 30,255 100.0%

Results from November 2008 (General Election):

CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 7
Completed Precincts: 92 of 92
Vote Count Percentage
KEITH D. CURRY 21,259 55.0%
DOLORES OTTING 17,376 45.0%

Curry is in complete control when it comes to campaign fundraising with over $171,000 raised and he has also spent his $100,000 loan in addition to the money he has raised. He has purchased multiple slate mailers, signs, and is currently in the lead on mail. Here are some of the mailers that our blogger Marion Morrison has posted:

AD 74 – Curry and Patrascu Both Positive
AD 74 – More Positive From Keith Curry
AD 74 Mail – Curry Postive and Patrascu Negative

With the amount of money that he has spent on voter contact it is a safe bet that Curry will be advancing to November.

Emanuel Patrascu

I will give Emanuel Patrascu credit because he has run an excellent campaign so far. He picked an excellent ballot designation and he has spent his money wisely on direct mail.

Patrascu has run for office before in Laguna Beach. Let’s take a brief look at her electoral history.

Results from November 2010 (General Election):

CITY OF LAGUNA BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 26 of 26
Vote Count Percentage
* KELLY H. BOYD 7,190 30.3%
* ELIZABETH PEARSON 6,669 28.1%
* TONI ISEMAN 6,023 25.4%
EMANUEL PATRASCU 3,819 16.1%

Patrascu could be classified as the candidate that has gotten the most out of the money that he has. His campaign fundraising numbers include $60,000 raised and $33,000 raised (I am including the loan because he has spent the money). His mail has been directly attacking Curry which is one of the main reasons that I think Curry is considered the front-runner by all candidates. Her is a look at some of the mail sent out by the Patrascu campaign courtesy of our blogger Marion Morrison:

AD 74 – Emanuel Patrascu Attacks Keith Curry on High Speed Rail
AD 74 – Curry and Patrascu Both Positive
AD 74 Mail – Curry Postive and Patrascu Negative

Patrascu is in a dead heat with Matt Harper for the second place slot and I will give my reasoning for this later in this post.

Matthew Harper

Matthew Harper is considered the conservative darling in this race by many due to his years of activism in the Republican Party of Orange County. It appears that both Keith Curry and Emanuel Patrascu are ignoring him with most of their negative mail being focused on each other.

Harper has hold office for a number of years and has had a lot of success on the ballot. Let’s take a look at his electoral history:

Results from November 2012 (General Election):

CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 4
Completed Precincts: 152 of 152
Vote Count Percentage
CONNIE BOARDMAN 20,019 9.4%
* JOE CARCHIO 18,523 8.7%
MATTHEW HARPER 15,886 7.5%
JOE SHAW 14,585 6.9%
BARBARA DELGLEIZE 14,171 6.7%
BLAIR FARLEY 13,932 6.5%
BILLY O’CONNELL 13,175 6.2%
JIM KATAPODIS 13,100 6.2%
FRED J. SPEAKER 11,183 5.3%
DAN KALMICK 10,775 5.1%
NORM WESTWELL 10,187 4.8%
BILL RORICK 9,835 4.6%
HEATHER GROW 9,624 4.5%
SHAWN ROSELIUS 7,628 3.6%
ERIK PETERSON 7,137 3.4%
BRUCE J. BRANDT 7,125 3.3%
LANDON FICHTNER 4,654 2.2%
ANDRISSA DOMINGUEZ 4,440 2.1%
WILLIAM GRUNWALD 3,652 1.7%
JOHN VON HOLLE 3,209 1.5%
BLAKE ROSE (W) 50 0.0%

Results from November 2002 (General Election):

Huntington Beach Union High Sch Dist
Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 238 of 238
Vote Count Percentage
Matthew Harper 29,220 17.5%
Bonnie Castrey 27,605 16.5%
Brian Garland 26,242 15.7%
Rosemary Saylor 24,516 14.7%
Sylvia Garrett 17,739 10.6%
Jim Peters 12,052 7.2%
Sallie E. Dashiell 12,050 7.2%
Ted K. Tadayon 9,303 5.6%
Andrew Scott Patterson 8,495 5.1%

Harper has more name ID than both Curry and Patrascu but his fundraising numbers have been anemic at best. He has raised just $22,000 and again I am including his personal loan because he has spent it. This is a pretty large fundraising gap between himself and Patrascu.

With this fundraising gap in place it is a safe bet that Harper will likely not appear on any direct mail although he is on a decent amount of slate mailers including the always popular and effective Landslide Communications slate mailers. The biggest concern I have is that the Curry campaign has not hit him yet and this is a bad sign considering Curry has paid for polling data in this race.

In spite of my concerns I still consider Harper to be in a dead heat with Patrascu and I will explain why at the end of this post.

Anila Ali

In any normal election I would predict the Democrat to consolidate enough support to advance to November but Ali is likely going to lose because Karina Onofre is also running as a Democrat. Ali has never run for office before and has no name ID in this district. She has raised $39,000 which is more than both Onofre and Harper but I just don’t think it is enough to overcome both Onofre and the Democratic registration disadvantage.

Prediction Time

Before I make my prediction I want to point out where the ballots that have been returned are coming from:

14,961 ballots have been returned so far in AD 74
3,500 ballots from Newport beach (approximately)
3,000 ballots from Huntington Beach (approximately)
2,000 ballots from Laguna Woods (approximately)
2,000 ballots from Costa Mesa (approximately)
1,000 ballots from Laguna Beach (approximately)

Based on the high turnout from Huntington Beach I am giving Harper a fighting chance to advance to November although I am still leaning towards Patrascu.

Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict that the candidates who advance to November will be a repeat of AD 72, an All-Republican run-off:

Keith Curry (R) in 1st and Toss-Up Between Emanuel Patrascu and Matthew Harper (R) for 2nd

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

 
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