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Archive for the ‘1st Supervisorial District’ Category

Correa Probably Regrets Authoring SB 183

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 3, 2015

An OC Political reader with a strong knowledge of recounts pointed out SB 183 (Correa, 2011) to me.  I had earlier written about the difficulty of getting new results in recounts in California.  SB 183 is the bill that made successful recounts virtually impossible.

Prior to SB 183, recount strategy typically relied on getting ballots tossed for identifiable marks, such as the infamous flower ballot of 2007.

Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana) put an end to that with SB 183.  Identifiable marks no longer invalidated ballots.  Consequently, the only way a ballot can be tossed is if the voter voted for more candidates than were available on the ballot (e.g. two candidates for Supervisor, four candidates for three city council slots) or voted both yes and no on a ballot measure.  Even then, the whole ballot wouldn’t be tossed, just the race in which the voter overvoted.

With more accurate ballot counting software and SB 183, recounts of anything other than provisional ballots are almost pointless in California.  That’s why the Garden Grove mayoral recount had no vote changes, the State Controller recount had 8 vote changes statewide, etc.

As one friend suggested while I talked to her about this situation, perhaps Correa wrote SB 183 in 2011 expecting to narrowly lead in a future election and wanted to prevent a recount from overturning his result.  Instead, he found himself narrowly behind in 2015 and wasn’t able to overturn the result.

Correa’s SB 183 of 2011 was actually identical to SB 387 of 2009 by Senator Loni Hancock (D-Berkeley), which was vetoed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who

The provisions of this bill allowing elections officials to process ballots that contain extraneous non-identifying marks are acceptable; however, I am concerned that remaking a ballot that contains personal identifying information compromises ballot secrecy and increases the opportunity for fraud.

The only difference two years later for SB 183 (Correa) of 2011 versus SB 387 (Hancock) of 2009 was a new Governor, Jerry Brown.

The two key changes in SB 183 were for Elections Code Sections 15154 and 15208:

SB 183 modified Elections Code Section 15154 as follows:

Any ballot that is not marked as provided by law or that is marked or signed by the voter so that it can be identified by others shall be rejected.

SB 183 struck this sentence out of Elections Code Section 15208:

Any ballot that is marked in a manner so as to identify the voter shall be marked “Void” and shall be placed in the container for void ballots.

SB 183 also replaced the voter instruction “All distinguishing marks or erasures are forbidden and make the ballot void” and replaced it with “Marking the ballot outside of the designated space to vote for a candidate or measure may compromise the secrecy of the ballot.”

Promoted by Common Cause and now-disgraced Secretary of State Debra Bowen, Correa introduced SB 183 on February 7, 2011. It passed the Legislature on near-party-line votes (oddly, Assemblyman Chris Norby voted against it in Assembly Appropriations and for it 12 days later on the Assembly Floor).  Governor Jerry Brown signed SB 183 into law on October 9, 2011, and it took effect January 1, 2012.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , | 9 Comments »

Measure J Hearing Today, Potential Harbinger of What Will Come in Correa Lawsuit

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 18, 2015

north_orange_county_community_college_district_employer_logo_fullThe hearing in the North Orange County Community College District Measure J case is slated to be heard this morning.  After the initial count showed Measure J winning by a very narrow margin (34 “yes” votes need to be tossed for J to fail), Opponents of Measure J launched a recount in order to examine the provisional ballots cast in the election.  Measure J is a $574 million bond measure.

They found 42 provisional ballots that weren’t signed by the voter and “identified hundreds of signatures [on absentee and provisional ballots] that a reasonable person could not identify as similar to the signature on the voter registration card.”

With a four-year-old state law making it harder to toss ballots in a recount, very few recounts (if any) have overturned the results of an election in California.  Indeed, in Orange County, no recount since then has managed to change any winner’s vote margin.

Former Senator Lou Correa has not yet filed his lawsuit in the First Supervisorial District Special Election, but I would suspect that is because his camp is keeping a close eye on the Measure J hearing.  When not even a single vote changed in the recount, leaving Andrew Do in office as the new Supervisor, Correa switched to examining provisional ballots (i.e. the Measure J opponents’ strategy).

If the Measure J opponents prove wildly successful in tossing ballots, that’d be a good sign for Correa.  If the Measure J opponents fail to toss ballots, that’d be a bad sign for Correa.  If Measure J opponents barely prevail in that ballot tossing effort, then Correa’s camp needs to carefully scrutinize whether they have enough ballots to toss to make a difference.  Measure J opponents only need to toss 34 ballots out of 154,118 cast.  Correa needs to toss 43 ballots out of 48,339 cast (technically, 48,626 ballots were cast in the First Supervisorial District Special Election, but those 287 voters who cast blank ballots aren’t likely to matter; had a bunch of them been Correa undervotes, we would have heard about it by now).

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , | 6 Comments »

Correa Ends Recount in 1st Supervisorial District

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 13, 2015

Former Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana) has ended the recount in the First Supervisorial District Special Election. New Supervisor Andrew Do’s 43-vote lead and victory remain intact.

Presumably, Correa will now use the information gathered in the recount process to launch his litigation. Ironically, the first hearing in the lawsuit challenging the passage of the North Orange County Community College District’s Measure J bond will begin next week.

Here is the press release from the Registrar of Voters announcing the end of the recount…

First District Special Election Recount Ends

No change in original certification as recount officially ends

February 13, 2015 – SANTA ANA – Former Senator Lou Correa has ended the recount in the Board of Supervisors’ First District Special Election contest. The recount began Monday, February 9, 2015. Mr. Correa made the original request following the certification of the election.

During the recount nearly 6,250 vote-by-mail ballots were recounted and election materials were reviewed. There were no changes to the vote totals – pursuant to California Elections Code § 15632 the original certification of the ballots cast remains as the official certification. The ballots cast and vote totals for the First District can be found in the “Results” section at ocvote.com.

# # #

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

What Poor Black and Latino Families Can Learn from New OC Supervisor Andrew Do

Posted by Walter Myers III on February 12, 2015

Andrew_Do_HeadshotThis morning Andrew Do, newly elected member to District 1 of the Orange County Board of Supervisors (pending completion of a recount), told a compelling story to the Lincoln Club of Orange County of how his family was whisked out of Saigon in the dark of night back in 1975 after the fall of Vietnam to communism. Andrew related how his family was allowed to leave with the clothes on their backs and only two small bags. Just imagine having to decide what are your most prized possessions in only a couple of hours. For most people this would be very difficult, given our propensity to collect more and more things in this wealthy society. But for Andrew’s father, the choice was clear. Their most prized possessions were… four dictionaries. Yes, dictionaries. Andrew’s father reasoned that moving to a new world as an Asian immigrant required knowledge and education, and it was this example of this key priority set by his father that left an indelible impression on him. Young Andrew went on to use his knowledge to build a successful career as an attorney, and most recently was former District 1 supervisor Janet Nguyen’s Chief of Staff (whose seat he just won after she moved on to state assembly).

When Andrew’s family settled in the United States, they were given food stamps. One day when Andrew’s father used food stamps, not really knowing what they were, he noticed that people looked upon him with disrespect. Upon discovering that food stamps were a form of welfare, Andrew’s father refused to use food stamps any further, declaring that his home would work for everything they had and would not accept a victim mentality as new immigrants in America. Wow, if only illegal immigrants in America, who admittedly are hard workers, refused to accept benefits that they did not rightfully earn. Andrew’s father knew this was a trap, teaching his children to depend on themselves and to use their knowledge and hard work to move forward in their lives. Another key point Andrew made in his speech was that even though his supervisor district is over 20% Vietnamese, it was by no means a slam dunk because other Vietnamese candidates were running as well who split the vote. What he relied on was the appeal of Republican values that focus on limited government, maximum liberty, and creating a business environment where people can pursue and realize their dreams based on their own hard work and ingenuity. Indeed, that’s why his message resonated with his constituency and of course, with the Lincoln Club. That is precisely what we are about and we celebrate for all no matter your background.

And this leads me to the title of this little post. Of course it was difficult for immigrant Asian families to succeed back in the 1970s in a far less accepting society than it is now. And yes, back then blacks were accepted no better after centuries of slavery and Jim Crow. Yet in 1975, blacks did have equal access to education for the most part, as I can attest to growing up in the south in Virginia. I was only a couple of years older than Andrew, and my parents always told me that an education was my ticket to a successful life, and that the worst for blacks was behind us so with hard work and determination I could succeed at whatever I set out to do. So Andrew’s parents were right, and so were mine. And there Andrew and I sat in that meeting today whereas we both probably looked wistfully into the future back in 1975. Four decades later, a recent statistic from the U.S. Census Bureau shows the nuclear family in America at near meltdown, with one in five children living on food stamps, and only 17% of black teens living with their nuclear family. Even in white families, we see an all time low of 54%. But when it comes to minority communities, these levels represent a needless tragedy. The lack of two parent homes and a lack of emphasis on education has consigned too many minority children to poverty and a future devoid of success. My only hope is that there will be a renaissance in these downtrodden communities, and obviously a renewed emphasis on education is in order. We can learn a lot from Andrew Do’s experience, and we must carry that message of hope into minority communities who have far more opportunity than in 1975.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | 5 Comments »

Five New Votes in First Supervisorial District

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 11, 2015

On the first day of the recount in the First Supervisorial District Special Election, 6,250 ballots in 16 precincts were recounted with no change, so former Senator Lou Correa suspended the recount to focus on provisional ballots.

Despite the suspension, another 2,912 ballots in 5 precincts were recounted on the second day.  However, unlike the first day, there was a 5-vote change, and the 2,912 ballots grew to 2,917.  Presumably, those five votes are previously-disqualified provisionals that have now been counted.  It appears that when each newly-included provisional was added, the entire precinct was then recounted.

Specifically, the 5 precincts each had 1 additional vote (Garden Grove’s 14601 and 14611, Westminster’s 39620, and Santa Ana’s 68618 and 68620).

Unfortunately for Correa, the 5-vote change had no net effect on Supervisor Andrew Do‘s 43-vote lead.  While Correa gained 2 votes (both from Santa Ana), Do also gained 2 votes (one each from Garden Grove and Westminster).  Garden Grove Councilman Chris Phan gained the other vote.

Also, on a complete tangent: congratulations are in order for write-in candidate Mark I. Lopez, as his vote for himself in Precinct 68615 was not tossed.  (In case anyone was wondering, the other write-in vote for Lopez was in Precinct 68634, but that Santa Ana precinct has not been recounted.)  I am left with the question of why the other four people registered to vote in Lopez’s house didn’t vote for him.  Perhaps they were concerned about Lopez’s desire for more politicians who talk like George Wallace did.

Here’s the precinct-by-precinct breakdown (vote changes in red):

 

Precinct City Status Ballots Recounted Candidate Name Original Tally Hand Tally
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 ANDREW DO 241 241
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 CHRIS PHAN 99 100
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 17 17
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 LOU CORREA 293 293
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 10 10
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 ANDREW DO 215 216
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 CHRIS PHAN 105 105
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 28 28
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 LOU CORREA 170 170
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 5 5
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
39620 Westminster Counted 553 ANDREW DO 272 273
39620 Westminster Counted 553 CHRIS PHAN 90 90
39620 Westminster Counted 553 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 31 31
39620 Westminster Counted 553 LOU CORREA 151 151
39620 Westminster Counted 553 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 6 6
39620 Westminster Counted 553 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 ANDREW DO 141 141
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 CHRIS PHAN 126 126
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 30 30
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 LOU CORREA 345 345
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 ANDREW DO 208 208
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 CHRIS PHAN 97 97
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 28 28
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 LOU CORREA 146 146
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 10 10
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68603 Santa Ana Counted 298 CHRIS PHAN 44 44
68603 Santa Ana Counted 298 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 5 5
68603 Santa Ana Counted 298 LOU CORREA 170 170
68603 Santa Ana Counted 298 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 ANDREW DO 21 21
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 CHRIS PHAN 11 11
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 2 2
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 LOU CORREA 176 176
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 15 15
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 ANDREW DO 100 100
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 CHRIS PHAN 40 40
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 14 14
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 LOU CORREA 189 189
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 8 8
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 ANDREW DO 309 309
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 CHRIS PHAN 137 137
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 64 64
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 LOU CORREA 189 189
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 2 2
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 ANDREW DO 41 41
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 CHRIS PHAN 35 35
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 2 2
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 LOU CORREA 285 285
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 8 8
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 ANDREW DO 102 102
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 CHRIS PHAN 36 36
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 5 5
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 LOU CORREA 96 96
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 11 11
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 ANDREW DO 143 143
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 CHRIS PHAN 38 38
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 12 12
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 LOU CORREA 200 200
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 21 21
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 ANDREW DO 86 86
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 CHRIS PHAN 38 38
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 4 4
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 LOU CORREA 197 197
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 4 4
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 ANDREW DO 139 139
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 CHRIS PHAN 46 46
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 13 13
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 LOU CORREA 151 151
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 7 7
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 ANDREW DO 73 73
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 CHRIS PHAN 19 19
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 8 8
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 LOU CORREA 225 225
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 6 6
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 ANDREW DO 61 61
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 CHRIS PHAN 42 42
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 7 7
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 LOU CORREA 352 352
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 16 16
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 ANDREW DO 106 106
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 CHRIS PHAN 65 65
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 15 15
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 LOU CORREA 151 151
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 2 2
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 ANDREW DO 74 74
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 CHRIS PHAN 55 55
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 14 14
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 LOU CORREA 299 299
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 12 12
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 1 1
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 ANDREW DO 58 58
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 CHRIS PHAN 53 53
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 8 8
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 LOU CORREA 159 159
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 6 6
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 ANDREW DO 361 361
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 CHRIS PHAN 23 23
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 6 6
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 LOU CORREA 292 293
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 14 14
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 ANDREW DO 49 49
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 CHRIS PHAN 26 26
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 8 8
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 LOU CORREA 387 388
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 29 29
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0

 

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Correa Suspends Recount After 6,250 Ballots in 16 Precincts Produces No Changes, Switches to Provisional Strategy, Eyes Turn to SD-37

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 10, 2015

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

One of the last times we’ll use this graphic of Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster), former Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilman Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

After recounting 6,250 ballots in 16 precincts (12.85% of all ballots cast and 15.84% of all precincts) in the First Supervisorial District, no ballots changed.

Correa has opted to suspend the recount to instead focus on provisional ballots, a strategy suggested in a colorful post by Orange Juice Blogger Greg Diamond.

Diamond cited the effort to overturn the North Orange County Community College District’s Measure J in which the measure’s opponents initiated the recount but focused on gathering information about the provisional ballots in order to challenge the provisionals in court.  Their court date is Wednesday, February 18.

However, Measure J opponents have a much shorter road to victory than Correa does.

Simple math explains this: Measure J opponents need to toss 34 out of 154,118 (0.02206%) votes cast.  Correa needs to toss 43 out of 48,626 (0.08843%) votes cast.

Measure J opponents also have the advantage of a multicounty district: they can challenge ballots in the LA County portion of the North Orange County Community College District (that district really needs a name change for the sake of geographic accuracy).  Correa can only challenge ballots in Orange County.

The history books are about to be written on the First Supervisorial District Special Election.

County Supervisor First District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 101 of 101
Vote Count Percentage
ANDREW DO 18,905 39.1%
LOU CORREA 18,862 39.0%
CHRIS PHAN 7,857 16.3%
CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 1,879 3.9%
LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 834 1.7%
MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 2 0.0%

Yesterday, Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley sent out this unintentionally symbolic tweet, as political eyes turn away from the First Supervisorial District Special Election and toward the 37th Senate District Special Election:

It’s only 35 days until the SD-37 Special Election, and the first mailer should arrive in my mailbox any day now.

Wagner, Moorlach, and Namazi

Time to start focusing on this trio of Republicans: Business Owner/Assemblyman Donald P. Wagner, former Orange County Supervisor John M. W. Moorlach, and Naz Namazi

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

SB 29 Ballots Strongly Favored Correa

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 5, 2015

Andrew Do and Lou Correa

New Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster) and former Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), the runner-up in the First Supervisorial District Special Election

In 2014, SB 29, authored by then-Senator Lou Correa, was signed into law, allowing absentee ballots to arrive via USPS up to three days after Election Day (provided they were either postmarked by Election Day or not postmarked).  There were 683 of these ballots (562 arrived on Wednesday, 120 arrived on Thursday, and 1 lonely ballot arrived on Friday) in the First Supervisorial District Special Election (the first election held since SB 29 came into effect on January 1, 2015).  As our readers all know, Andrew Do defeated Correa by 43 votes.

Correa led Do by 6% on the SB 29 ballots.  Correa had led Do by just 1% in early absentees while Do led Correa by 5% among late (but still arriving by Election Day) absentee ballots.

Many Republicans breathed a sigh of relief that SB 29 ballots did not put Correa over the top against Do, but there remain serious implications for Republicans in future elections.  The First Supervisorial District was simply a trial run that demonstrated that SB 29 ballots do favor Democrats.  In Orange County, Vietnamese absentee ballots can still overpower SB 29 ballots, but in other parts of California, SB 29 ballots will proceed unimpeded by Vietnamese absentee ballots.  It would behoove Republican lawmakers to try to reform SB 29.  Failing that, Republican campaigns will need to learn how to win over SB 29 ballots.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , | 4 Comments »

Correa Recount Highly Unlikely to Succeed, Based on Recent Cases, Do to Be Sworn in This Morning

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 3, 2015

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Last night, former Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana) submitted an official request for a recount to the Orange County Registrar of Voters.  Judging by recent recount efforts, it is highly unlikely that Correa will be able to overturn Supervisor-Elect Andrew Do’s 43-vote lead.

  • In the 2014 general election for the North Orange County Community College District’s Measure J, measure opponents needed to flip 34 votes to block the 55% supermajority to overturn the measure.  Realizing a recount would be unlikely to prevail, the opponents went with the unique method of using the recount as an opportunity to examine the provisional ballots, then ended the recount to instead file suit in court to get the provisionals tossed.  This case is still pending.  However, since provisionals overwhelmingly favored Correa, it is unlikely he would use this method (nor would adding the uncounted provisionals help since there were just a handful of those, so it was far short of 43).
  • In the 2014 general election for Mayor of Garden Grove, then-Mayor Bruce Broadwater (D-Garden Grove) sought a recount to overturn his 15-vote re-election loss to then-School Board Member Bao Nguyen (D-Garden Grove).  Broadwater threw in the towel when the first day of the recount failed to change a single ballot despite 2,500 ballots being recounted, and Nguyen became Mayor.
  • In the 2014 primary election for State Controller, then-Assembly Speaker John Perez (D-Los Angeles) sought a recount to overturn his 481-vote loss to then-Board of Equalization Member Betty Yee (D-San Francisco). Perez gave up after one week when he only managed to change 8 votes in approximately 400 precincts.  Yee advanced to the general election against Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin and won that race to become State Controller.
  • In the 2007 special election for the First Supervisorial District (i.e. the election for this same seat eight years ago when none other than Lou Correa resigned the seat to become a State Senator), then-School Board Member Trung Nguyen (R-Garden Grove) led then-Councilwoman Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove) by 7 votes.  Janet Nguyen then sought a recount and netted 14 votes, thereby changing her 7-vote deficit into a 7-vote lead.  Trung Nguyen then went to court and widdled Janet Nguyen’s lead down to 3 votes.  Janet Nguyen, of course, went on to serve eight years in the seat before resigning in 2014 to become a State Senator, triggering the 2015 special election.  One important caveat in this story, state laws regarding recounts were much more generous in allowing ballots to be tossed back then, and even that was only a 14-vote (or 11-vote if you consider the judge’s rulings) switch.

Do’s 43-vote victory is simply too large a margin for Correa to overcome.  I don’t blame Correa for trying, because 43 votes out of 48,626 cast in 101 precincts is tantalizingly close, but he just won’t be able to pull it off.

Do will be sworn in as Supervisor this morning.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, California, Garden Grove, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

It’s Certified: Do Defeats Correa by 43 Votes

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 30, 2015

Just minutes ago, Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley certified the First Supervisorial District Special Election.

ANDREW DO 18,905 39.1%
LOU CORREA 18,862 39.0%
CHRIS PHAN 7,857 16.3%
CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 1,879 3.9%
LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 834 1.7%

The Registrar’s press release is below:

First District Special Election Certified
Final ballot counting and official certification complete

SANTA ANA, CA – January 30, 2015 – Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley has just certified the official results of the Orange County Board of Supervisors’ First District Special Election held on January 27, 2015.

Total turnout from the election was 22.6% with 19% of voters casting their ballot by mail and 3.5% of voters voting in their polling place. In the 2007 First District Special Election overall turnout was 22.4%, vote-by-mail voting was 17.3% and polling place voting was 5.1%.

The Orange County Registrar of Voters produces detailed reports focusing on overall turnout, turnout by precinct, turnout by districts, turnout by cities, and more. These detailed reports can be found by visiting ocvote.com in the “Results” section.

# # #

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Final Day of Counting: Math Says Do Defeats Correa in Every Likely Scenario

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 30, 2015

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

As the final day of counting in the First Supervisorial District Special Election commences, Lou Correa is simply running out of ballots to overtake Andrew Do’s lead.  While provisional ballots helped Correa narrow his deficit from 239 to 85 yesterday, that 154-vote swing is not enough for Correa to defeat Do.

765 ballots remain.  Of those, 294 are provisionals, 396 are SB 29 ballots, 70 are traditional late absentees, and 5 are paper ballot votes cast at the polls.  To make things worse for Correa, multiple observers who were at the Registrar of Voters yesterday reported that the SB 29 ballots appeared to be 2/3 to 4/5 Vietnamese language ballots.  (I imagine Correa regrets authoring SB 29.)

Late absentees were trending at a 5% lead for Do.  The 70 traditional late absentees would then give Do an increased lead of 3-4 votes.  Let’s say the five remaining paper ballots split evenly between Correa and Do, with one going to Phan.  That leaves the 294 provisionals and the 396 SB 29 ballots.

Correa gained 622 votes in yesterday’s count, Do gained 468, Chris Phan 193, Chuyen Van Nguyen 44, and Lupe Morfin-Moreno 18.  Correa gained 46.25% of the 1345 ballots counted yesterday while Do gained 34.80%. However, of that amount there were 970 provisionals and 375 absentees.  In other words, 72% of yesterday’s count came from provisionals while only 38% of today’s count will come from provisionals.  If yesterday’s trend were to continue today (which is not possible due to the much lower proportion of provisionals, but let’s give Correa the benefit of the doubt), Correa would gain 319 votes from the remaining provisional and SB 29 ballots while Do would gain 240 votes.  That would net Correa an additional 79 votes.  Add in the 70 traditional late absentees and Correa’s net gain is 75-76, which is still 9-10 votes short of overtaking Do.  Correa still loses in his best case scenario.

A more likely scenario comes from applying yesterday’s trend to provisionals and prior days’ trends to SB 29 ballots.  Correa gains 135 provisionals and 143 SB 29 ballots.  Do gains 102 provisionals and 162 SB 29 ballots.  That’s a Correa gain of 278 and a Do gain of 264, or Correa shrinking Do’s lead by another 14 votes.  Throwing in the traditional absentees reduces it to a lead reduction of 10-11 for Do, which would still have Do winning by 74-75 votes.

However, with the reports of the SB 29 ballots being overwhelmingly Vietnamese language ballots and the fact that more SB 29 ballots can still come in today, Do likely wins this election by well over 100 votes.  That’s not a landslide, but it’s certainly well beyond the margin for a recount in this low-turnout election, where less than 49,000 ballots were cast.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

 
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