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2nd Supervisorial District Watch: Huntington Beach Joe Carchio is also “Exploring”

Posted by Dominus on May 11, 2013

Last week Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio sent out an email to his “friends & supporters” requesting inputs on a potential run for Orange County Supervisor, 2nd District.  This email came on the heel of similar email that was sent out by Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.  Here is a portion of that email:

Like some of you, I sat on the sidelines for year while others did the work.  I’ve voted in all the elections that I was able, sent along my contributions to candidates I cared about, stuffed envelopes, walked precincts, etc.

I’ve been told I have some good ideas that would work well for Orange County.  However, what I think of my accomplishments so far is not as important as what you think of the role I have played in our local political leadership lives and what perhaps I could do for all of us at the County.  I have no political further careers goals and would dedicate myself to serving the people of Orange County as 2nd District Supervisor.

Joe Carchio is currently a part-time Field Representative for Assemblyman Travis Allen.  He is will be forced out of the Huntington Beach City Council at the end of 2014 because of term limits.  In 2011, he publicly stated that he will run for the newly created 72nd Assembly District only to later discovered that he lives in the wrong part of Huntington Beach.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

AD74 Watch: Matt Harper Angling to Run

Posted by Dominus on May 10, 2013

With the news of Assemblyman Allan Mansoor possibly giving up his seat to run for Supervisor against BOE Member Michelle Steel, an ambitious and eager politician by the name is Matthew Harper is already busy working behind the scene to secure support for a potential campaign.

Matt Harper was elected to the Huntington Beach City Council in 2010.  He is slated to become mayor next year if his Democratic colleagues will honor the rotation system.

Harper briefly ran for assembly in 2012 before dropping out and eventually backing Troy Edgar.  That last race demonstrated Harper’s inability to raise serious campaign cash needed for an assembly campaign.  Here is the text from an OC Register article that reported Harper’s last assembly race back in 2012

WHO HAS THE MONEY IN THE NEW 72ND ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

Five candidates have tossed their hats in the ring for the 72nd Assembly race, but only three are financially committed to running for a seat.

Huntington Beach City Councilman Matthew Harper, Westminster Councilman Tyler Diep and Little Saigon businessman Long Pham are vying for the newly drawn district that would represent parts of Huntington Beach, Seal Beach, Fountain Valley, Los Alamitos, Garden Grove and Santa Ana.

Harper has $22,853 in funds for the race, according to his campaign statement covering Jan. 1- Dec. 30.

His biggest donors include Rainbow Disposal, and he has also taken out a loan for $7,500.

Diep’s campaign filings show he has not taken out any loans and has collected $137,049 since January 2011.

Pham, who is making his fourth attempt to claim a seat, has not collected any contributions but instead has taken out a $100,000 loan to fund his campaign.

I would think Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle and former CRP treasurer Keith Carlson are the more formidable candidates should they decide to run.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Michelle Steel v. Alan Mansoor: Who Stand to Gain the Most and Who Has the Most to Lose?

Posted by Dominus on May 6, 2013

While political insiders gossip about the possibility of Assemblyman Allan Mansoor giving up his third term in the lower house of the Legislature to challenge BOE Member Michelle Steel for the position of OC Supervisor, 2nd District, the Daily Pilot made the whole situation public last week.

Conventional wisdom predicted that Allan Mansoor will run for State Senate in the beginning of 2015 when incumbent Senator Mimi Walters vacate her seat after her installation on to the Orange County Board of Supervisors.  The most obvious threat to Allan Mansoor for this senate seat is Assemblyman Don Wagner.  Both Wanger and Mansoor were elected in 2010 so both are termed-out at the end of 2016.

Last week, Allan Mansoor did a huge favor to Don Wagner by telling the local press that he is mulling a run for OC Supervisor.

But Wagner is not the only one who stand to gain the most – Supervisor John Moorlach is also benefiting from a possible Steel v. Mansoor match up.

Moorlach is at the end of his career with the County of Orange and is looking for a new public office to occupy.

THE BACKGROUND

John Moorlach detested the idea that Michelle Steel is going to succeed him.  He is convinced that Michelle and her husband Shawn Steel were some how responsible for the defeat of his effort to extend supervisorial term limits to three consecutive 4-year terms.

Moorlach preferred to have someone like former Huntington Beach Councilman Don Hansen or Costa Mesa Mayor Jim Righeimer take over his seat.

Jim Righeimer decided against a run for supervisor due to unfinished business in Costa Mesa.  Don Hansen is having second thought about this race, according to multiple sources.

So John Moorlach and company needed to find another candidate. They turned to Allan Mansoor.

They convinced Allan Mansoor that it is in his best interest to forgo a possible third term in the assembly to run against Michelle Steel.

Any political insider could have told Mansoor that the safer route to take is to run for re-election, then run for state senate in a special election from a safe seat.

But of course the people telling Mansoor to run for supervisor doesn’t exactly have his best interest at heart.  They’re just looking for the strongest candidate they can find to run against Michelle Steel.

THE POSSIBLE BENEFICIARIES

If Allan Mansoor does indeed give up his Assembly seat to run for Supervisor, John Moorlach is going to walk right into the 74th Assembly District.

Assemblyman Don Wagner will have little problem succeeding Senator Mimi Walters to the upper chamber.

THE RISK FOR ALLAN MANSOOR

Between Don Wagner and Michelle Steel, I believe that the latter is a more formidable opponent.  Taking on Don Wagner in a special election from a safe seat is the path with zero risk for Allan Mansoor.

Running against Michelle Steel in a regular primary and then general election will mean that Allan Mansoor will have to give up his third and final term in the Assembly.  If Mansoor prevail in this match then life is great.  However, should he come up short, unemployment at the beginning of 2015 is not pleasant for a former member of the Legislature.

CONCLUSION

Something for Assemblyman Mansoor to consider as he is about to start a family.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Orange County Board of Supervisors | Tagged: , , , | 4 Comments »

Supervisors Calling for Change in CalOptima Board Membership

Posted by Dominus on January 27, 2013

In the wake of a scathing OC Grand Jury report against Supervisor Janet Nguyen for her take over of CalOptima, other county supervisors are openly suggesting further changes to this $1.5 billion healthcare plan for the poor.

The Voice of OC’s Norbeto Santana recently interviewed supervisors Todd Spitzer, Shawn Nelson and John Moorlach for their reactions.  Senator Lou Correa also offered his willingness to make legislative change to CalOptima.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 2nd Supervisorial District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 4th Supervisorial District, 5th Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

AD 65 Watch: Two Republicans Compete to Challenge Democratic Incumbent

Posted by Dominus on January 22, 2013

Sensing that newly elected Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva is vulnerable in the midterm 2014 election, two Republicans has emerged to compete for the chance to unseat her.  Both Republicans are Asian Americans and they were busy working the room at last night’s Republican Party of Orange County Central Committee meeting.

THE CANDIDATE WITH THE EDGE

IMG_1535I do not think there is a front runner on the GOP side yet but one of these two candidates have a minor edge and her name is Young Kim.  She is a Korean American community leader and long time staffer for Congressman Ed Royce.

In my judgment Young have a small advantage right now because of Ed Royce and his strong roots in Fullerton.  Let’s just assume that Royce will go out of his way to help his staffer.  Young Kim is an eloquent public speaker.  She is very presentable in public and can tap into her Korean network of donors for financial support.

Previously Young and her husband Charles lives in La Habra where he was a planning commissioner.  La Habra is not in AD 65 so i’m guessing Young probably moved out of that city already and into a place that is within the district.  Someone overheard her saying that she moved to Fullerton last month.

Young’s decision to run in AD 65 instead of Assemblyman Curt Hagman’s district saved Ed Royce from having to take side in a potentially divisive campaign.  We know how “excited” the Congressman can be when he has to take side in an intra-party fight.

THE CANDIDATE THAT IS ALSO COMPETITIVE

Before Young Kim can take on Sharon Quirk-Silva, she will have to find a way to deal with Councilman Henry Charoen of La Palma.  Henry is a Thai community leader.  Henry was planning to run for assembly two years ago but his city was drawn into Chris Norby’s district.  He ultimately backed out but did put away $50,000.

In June of 2012, Henry was elected to the GOP central committee.

20_n_thaimayor2_largeWhat is dangerous about Henry is that he has nothing to lose and everything to gain by running.  Don’t think that the GOP establishment can bully him out of this race.

THE ANALYSIS

It is good for the Republican Party to have two fine Asian candidates running for state office.  However, to even have a chance at unseating Sharon Quirk Silva, one of them must not run and clear the field for the other.

There just isn’t enough money in Orange County for these two Republicans to bloody each other up in the primary.

From now until the June mid-year financial report, Henry is unlikely to do better than Young in term of collecting high profile endorsements.  Young will beat him at that game but if Henry can focus on raising money – i’m talking posting $150,000 cash on hand by the middle of this year then he is in the hunt and probably the frontrunner.

Likewise for Young, she need to have money to go along with her endorsements.  Having all 25 GOP assembly members endorsing her means little to nothing if she cant put together at least $100,000 by the middle of this year.

This could be an exciting race to watch.

Posted in 65th Assembly District | Tagged: , , | 3 Comments »

Supervisorial 5: Mimi Walters to Take this Seat

Posted by Dominus on January 16, 2013

In 2014 Supervisor Pat Bates of the 5th District will termed-out of this seat.  It is confirmed that state Senator Mimi Walters will run for this position next year to avoid political extinction herself.

This supervisorial district belongs to Mimi.  No one in this area have the high name identification and financial resources to challenge Mimi.

What is more interesting is the special election that a Mimi victory will trigger.  Assemblyman Alan Mansoor and Assemblyman Don Wagner are both eyeing this senate district.

Between Wagner and Mansoor, I don’t know who is the stronger candidate.

Posted in 5th Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , | 8 Comments »

SD 34 Watch: Could be a Crowded Field

Posted by Dominus on January 14, 2013

Even though the 2012 Presidential Election just ended a few months ago, many candidates are already putting the pieces together for the next campaign.

In 2014, I suspect there will only be two competitive state legislative races in Orange County: SD 34 (Correa) and AD 65 (Quirk-Silva).  In this post, I will focus on SD 34 and save AD 65 for another day.

By any standard measures, SD 34 is a swing district.  Democrats outnumbered Republicans by less than a percentage point.  The district voted heavily in favor of Proposition 8.  The incumbent Lou Correa is termed-out in 2014.

Here is my analysis of this race:

REPUBLICAN FIELD

The most active candidate on the Republican side is Supervisor Janet Nguyen.  She started plotting for this seat back in 2011 when she endorsed Long Beach Councilman Gary DeLong for Congress over Los Alamitos Councilman Troy Edgar in exchange for the support of LA Supervisor Don Knabe.Janet-Nguyen-and-Baby-Tom-300x227

You may wonder why is the support of Don Knabe important? It is because the new SD 34 have a sizable portion of Los Angeles.

Janet also lucked-out when then-campaign treasurer Kindee Durkee cleaned out the accounts of Senator Lou Correa and Assemblyman Jose Solorio.  One of these two politicians were supposed to challenge Janet in 2012.  Instead, the 1st District Supervisor faced a token candidate and didn’t have to spend a whole lot of money for her re-election.  Janet could be sitting on $300,000 – $350,000 right now.

Another Republican candidate in this race is former Assemblyman Jim Silva.  I say potential because Jim is still wishy-washy about it.  Sure he is sitting on top of $400,000 but the idea of running in a brutal primary then go through a general election doesn’t sit well with Jim.  If anything, Jim wants to be drafted by the GOP establishment to run.

Jim may end up running after all, depending on the field.

Aside from these two Republicans, we have another one thinking about it – Long Pham.  The former Orange County Board of Education member and nuclear engineer who spent $100,000 of his personal money on a failed assembly campaign is talking to people about a potential run for SD 34.  Long have loyal followers in the Vietnamese community.  He just need to hire a better campaign consultant if he is to make another run at public office.

DEMOCRATIC FIELD

The front runner on the Democratic side is Jose Solorio, a trustee of the Rancho Santiago Community College District.  As a government consultant, Jose will have plenty of time and flexibility to campaign in this district.  I’m not sure how much money he is sitting on but financial resources should not be a problem if Jose is the only Democrat in the race.  Money from Sacramento will just flow into this war chest.Jose-Solorio-in-Sacramento

Jose’s best bet is to make it into the general November election where more Democrats are likely to vote.  Currently, I see a big problem for Jose – the person he is trying to succeed.

It is in Lou Correa’s interest to have Janet win the 34 SD in 2014 so that it will trigger a special election in 2015 for her supervisorial seat.  Lou and his staff will work behind the scene to help Janet (they can’t do it publicly).

The other Democrat in this race is former Garden Grove planning commissioner Joe Dovinh.  Joe likes to run.  Does he have a chance of winning? Sure, if he can make it through the primary with a Republican opponent.  It’s going to take a lot for Joe not to run and Janet knows it.

Later this week I will write about AD 65 and the likely Republican contender for this seat against incumbent Democrat Sharon Quirk-Silva.

Posted in 34th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Orange County Sanitation District Set to Raise Rates

Posted by Dominus on December 28, 2012

On December 12, 2012, the Orange County Sanitation District (OCSD) board of directors directed staff to prepare Proposition 218 notifications to prepare for the process of raising sewage fees for the next eight years.  The vote was not unanimous.

Staff is recommending a 4.8% increase for fiscal year 2013-2014 and an increase of 2.4% annually for the next seven years.

The proposed rate increase will come before the board again on February 27 with a public hearing scheduled for March 27.

Unless there is major opposition from the public, the fee/rate increase is expected to sail through.  OCSD provides sewage services to more than 2.5 million residents in the county.

It takes a 2/3 majority of the board to raise rates.

ocsd_3-9-06_-140

Posted in Orange County Sanitation District | 5 Comments »

 
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