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Handicapping The Races: OC Board of Supervisors 2nd District (June 2014)

Posted by Chris Emami on May 21, 2014

Whenever I write my posts handicapping races, Chris Nguyen gets really angry and stops just short of throwing things at me. With this in mind, I am not going to handicap all races in Orange County. I will select a few races that I find to be a bit more interesting and predict the winners.

We are going to start this season off with a look at the 2nd Supervisorial District race, which features the following candidates:

  • Jim Moreno – Governing Board Member, Coast Community College District
  • Allan Mansoor – California Assemblyman
  • Joe Carchio – Councilman/Retired Businessowner
  • Michelle Steel – Board of Equalization Member

Voter registration heavily favors Republicans, with Republicans having 44% of registered voters in District 2, compared to Democrats who hold just 29% of voter registration. With that being said, party affiliation matters very little in a race for Orange County Supervisor since the candidates’ parties are not listed on the ballot, so that will definitely help spare Jim Moreno, the lone Democrat in the race. The 2nd Supervisorial District currently has the following cities within its boundaries:

  • Costa Mesa
  • Cypress
  • Huntington Beach
  • La Palma
  • Los Alamitos
  • Newport Beach
  • Seal Beach
  • Stanton
  • Buena Park (Portion)
  • Fountain Valley (Portion)

Also, it is important to explain that the way a race for Orange County Supervisor works is that the top two vote getters will advance to November, unless the top vote getter finishes with over 50% of the vote.

Jim Moreno

Jim Moreno is the lone Democrat in the race and the lone candidate with an education-related ballot designation. His political career is limited to his time on the Coast Community College District Board (since 2006). Let’s take a look at his electoral history.

Results from 2010 (General Election):

COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 1
Completed Precincts: 507 of 507
Vote Count Percentage
* JIM MORENO 101,092 63.5%
SHANA CHRISTINA JENKINS 58,068 36.5%

Results from 2006 (General Election):

COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT Governing Board Member Trustee Area 1
Completed Precincts: 497 of 497
Vote Count Percentage
JIM MORENO 61696 46.0%
CARL A. HENDON 25916 19.3%
LU TUAN NGUYEN 25711 19.2%
TOM HERMSTAD 20837 15.5%

Moreno does have some name ID through the two elections he has been on the ballot for Coast Community College District.

Moreno has the weakest fundraising numbers as of the last report (under $22,000 cash on hand) and does not appear to have the funds to run a very comprehensive campaign. No direct mail has been sent out at this point, no campaign signs are up, and only a few slates have him on it. I have not gotten any feedback on much of a ground game up to this point which is what he would have needed to have done to be more competitive.

He actually came across very well at the Feet to the Fire candidate debate a few weeks ago, and he was, in my opinion, the second-most impressive candidate at the forum.

Based on the factors above, I think Moreno has a slight chance of advancing to November.

Allan Mansoor

Allan Mansoor beat the odds, if you listened to most predictions back in 2012, when he defeated Leslie Daigle in his re-election bid for the 74th Assembly District. I made the accurate prediction of Mansoor advancing to November with Democrat Bob Rush.

Mansoor spent a number of years as a Costa Mesa Councilmember and then went on to serve as the Assemblymember from the 68th Assembly District in 2010. In 2012 after redistricting, the seat he represents became the 74th Assembly District. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.

Results from 2012 (Open Primary):

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 74th District
Completed Precincts: 392 of 392
Vote Count Percentage
ALLAN R. MANSOOR 33,319 43.5%
ROBERT RUSH 25,120 32.8%
LESLIE DAIGLE 18,207 23.8%

Results from 2010 (Republican Primary):

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 68th District – Republican
Completed Precincts: 291 of 291
Vote Count Percentage
ALLAN R. MANSOOR (REP) 22,063 69.3%
LONG PHAM (REP) 9,777 30.7%

Results from 2006 (General Election):

CITY OF COSTA MESA Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 70 of 70
Vote Count Percentage
ALLAN R. MANSOOR 10122 25.9%
WENDY BROOKS LEECE 9524 24.4%
BRUCE GARLICH 8280 21.2%
MIKE SCHEAFER 7255 18.6%
MIRNA BURCIAGA 2717 7.0%
CHRIS BUNYAN 1190 3.0%

Finally, the results from 2002

City of Costa Mesa Member, City Council
Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 81 of 81
Vote Count Percentage
Gary Monahan 10,739 31.0%
Allan R. Mansoor 7,617 22.0%
Linda Dixon 7,092 20.5%
Katrina Foley 5,690 16.4%
William Perkins 3,520 10.2%

As you can see from the election results, Mansoor has a history of winning elections and has some good name ID in the 2nd Supervisorial District (especially in Costa Mesa). Costa Mesa has the third-most voters of any city in the 2nd Supervisorial District, behind Newport Beach and Huntington Beach.

However, Mansoor has had abysmal fundraising numbers as of the last report (less than $62,000 cash-on-hand) and has not run a very impressive campaign. According to our blogger, Marion Morrison, Mansoor went negative in his very first piece of mail in this race. It is a basic rule in campaigning that you have to go positive at least twice before you can go negative. Also, Mansoor has some of the worst campaign signs that I have ever seen with his name appearing in very small letters on the sign. I have not heard of him appearing on any slates at this point. His campaign appears to be focused mostly on going to lots of events.

I will give him a break on his performance at the Feet to the Fire candidate forum, since the debate is an absolute circus (if I was prepping a client for this debate, it would include people with vuvuzelas and other noisemakers to try and create as many distractions as possible).

All of this, combined with a late start to the campaign, in my book, make it a large uphill battle for Mansoor.

Joe Carchio

Joe Carchio might be the most interesting of the candidates running for this seat who are not named Michelle Steel. Carchio is currently a Councilmember from Huntington Beach, which is the largest city in the 2nd Supervisorial District. Prior to his time on the council, he owned the popular restaurant, “Jersey Joe’s” in Huntington Beach.

Carchio has been a consistent winner in both elections that he participated in for Huntington Beach City Council. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.

Results from 2010 (General Election):

CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 4
Completed Precincts: 152 of 152
Vote Count Percentage
CONNIE BOARDMAN 20,019 9.4%
* JOE CARCHIO 18,523 8.7%
MATTHEW HARPER 15,886 7.5%
JOE SHAW 14,585 6.9%
BARBARA DELGLEIZE 14,171 6.7%
BLAIR FARLEY 13,932 6.5%
BILLY O’CONNELL 13,175 6.2%
JIM KATAPODIS 13,100 6.2%
FRED J. SPEAKER 11,183 5.3%
DAN KALMICK 10,775 5.1%
NORM WESTWELL 10,187 4.8%
BILL RORICK 9,835 4.6%
HEATHER GROW 9,624 4.5%
SHAWN ROSELIUS 7,628 3.6%
ERIK PETERSON 7,137 3.4%
BRUCE J. BRANDT 7,125 3.3%
LANDON FICHTNER 4,654 2.2%
ANDRISSA DOMINGUEZ 4,440 2.1%
WILLIAM GRUNWALD 3,652 1.7%
JOHN VON HOLLE 3,209 1.5%
BLAKE ROSE (W) 50 0.0%

Results from 2006 (General Election):

CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 4
Completed Precincts: 155 of 155
Vote Count Percentage
CATHY GREEN 31172 18.6%
JILL HARDY 28582 17.0%
GIL COERPER 24895 14.8%
JOE “JERSEY JOE” CARCHIO 24573 14.6%
FLORENCE “FLOSSIE” HORGAN 23709 14.1%
JOE SHAW 20632 12.3%
NORM “FIRECRACKER” WESTWELL 14282 8.5%

Carchio finished a great deal stronger in 2010 than he did in 2006 as evidenced by the above results. With Huntington Beach being the largest city in the district, it will make for a very interesting election night depending on voter turnout, considering Carchio does have a strong base of support in Huntington Beach.

Impressively, Carchio has the second-highest amount money, as of the last campaign finance report (over $67,000 cash on hand) but has not spent it on anything tangible from what I have seen. I have not heard about any direct mail, slate mail, signs, or large amount of precinct walking.

At one point during the Feet to the Fire candidate debate, I could have sworn that Carchio was ignored for 30 minutes straight, without saying a word. If he starts to spend his money on voter contact, it will make things very interesting.

I believe that Carchio will be extremely close to Mansoor on election night.

Michelle Steel

Calling Michelle Steel the front-runner would be an understatement. Steel, who is currently on the State Board of Equalization, leads in about every category that I have seen and has run an extremely efficient and well-organized campaign.

Steel has been elected twice to the California State Board of Equalization. Let’s take a brief look at her electoral history.

Results from 2010 (Republican Primary):

Member, State Board of Equalization 3rd District – Republican
Completed Precincts: 2084 of 2084
Vote Count Percentage
* MICHELLE STEEL (REP) 167,669 70.3%
VIC BAKER (REP) 70,852 29.7%

Results from 2006 (Republican Primary):

Member, State Board of Equalization 3rd District – Republican
Completed Precincts: 2076 of 2076
Vote Count Percentage
MICHELLE STEEL (REP) 77757 41.4%
RAY HAYNES (REP) 59023 31.4%
STEVE PETRUZZO (REP) 27788 14.8%
HAL “JIMBO” STYLES (REP) 12155 6.5%
LEWIS A. DA SILVA (REP) 11040 5.9%

It is first and foremost, important to note that Steel has appeared on the ballot twice to the entire 2nd Supervisorial District (and all of Orange County for that matter) thanks to complete overlap by her State Board of Equalization seat. Steel was impressive with both her margin of victory in 2010 as an incumbent and her victory over well-known Assemblyman Ray Haynes in 2006.

Steel has an impressive fundraising lead over all of her opponents combined (over $500,000 cash on hand) and has dominated the campaign when it comes to voter contact. I have seen at least 8 mailers that have arrived from her campaign, and it is clear that she is trying to end this thing in June by breaking 50% in the primary. She has also dominated slate mail, signs, endorsements, and precinct walking. Most impressively, she received the endorsement of the OC Register, which should move the needle a few points on election night.

Based on my opinion of the Feet to the Fire candidate debate, I would say Steel has a great knowledge of the issues that exist at the County of Orange, and she came across very well to voters. I was actually quite impressed with her accuracy when I fact-checked some of the numbers that she threw out to the audience at the candidate debate.


Prediction Time

Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict the winner will be

Michelle Steel (in June) – I think she is going to clear 50% of the vote.

4 Responses to “Handicapping The Races: OC Board of Supervisors 2nd District (June 2014)”

  1. Vickie Talley said

    oops! top two go to the run-off – there is no winner in June!

    Vickie Talley, Principal Talley and Associates, Inc. 25241 Paseo de Alicia, Suite 120 Laguna Hills, California 92653

    Phone: (949) 380-3300 Facsimile: (949) 380-3310 Email: vickie@talleyassoc.com

    Talley and Associates, Inc. has been providing clients with Governmental Relations, Association Management and Public Affairs Consulting services since 1982.

    This email is intended for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential or privileged information. No one is authorized to copy, re-use, disclose, distribute, take action or rely on this email or any information contained in it. If you are not the intended recipient, we request that you please notify us by reply email and destroy all copies of the message and any attachments. Thank you for your prompt attention.

    • Ms. Talley,

      I am afraid you are slightly mistaken. In legislative races the top two automatically go to a run-off. However, in races for Orange County Supervisor a candidate can win outright in June if they clear 50% of the vote.

  2. Greg Diamond said

    Moreno, Mansoor, and Carchio all have significant constituencies. Steel is a viceroy sent from Rolling Hills (or is it Rolling Hills Estates? My knowledge of Palos Verdes geography is somewhat lacking) — still, by any reasonable measure, her permanent residence. (Art Pedroza had a good piece on this: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/OcPolitics/~3/7Xt2LMZLJzk/). I expect that she’ll likely get the most votes (with Moreno as my next guess if there’s a deep GOP split), but over 50% seems unlikely.

    If you’re right, I will bow towards you — and towards Palos Verdes generally. (Probably not towards Surfside, unless Shawn Steel is visiting there that day.)

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