2012 General Election Predictions: 74th Assembly District
Posted by Chris Emami on September 20, 2012
This race will be a lot more mild after the fight that we saw in June between Allan Mansoor and Leslie Daigle. Now we have a partisan fight between Allan Mansoor (R) and Robert Rush (D). The 74th Assembly District is a conservative South County seat:
Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.
As you can see Republicans have a registration of 42.7%, Democrats 29.3%, and DTS 23.2% (remember DTS voters will lean conservative in this district). With that being said we almost $300,000 pumped into this race in expenditures on behalf of Leslie Daigle. These expenditures helped her jump all the way to last place.
The results from June can be viewed here:
Member of the State Assembly; District 74
- Allan R. Mansoor, Republican ………. 33,319 votes 43.5%
- Robert Rush, Democratic ………. 25,120 votes 32.8%
- Leslie Daigle, Republican ………. 18,207 votes 23.8%
Mansoor fell under 50%, however, the reason for this is likely the hit pieces that the Daigle campaign did against him. My gut feeling is that the majority of people who voted for Daigle will vote for Mansoor in November. The reason for this assertion is because partisan Republicans were split between Daigle and Mansoor. These Republicans will only have one candidate to vote for from their party in November.
Financially Robert Rush is in the same ballpark as Mansoor. Rush may have over $55,000 after the primary and Mansoor has just over $50,000/ Rush is going to need a lot more money to make up the deficit he is already facing after June.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be: