2012 General Election Predictions: 73rd Assembly District
Posted by Chris Emami on September 19, 2012
It appears that I was wrong about Don Wagner still having the most conservative district in California as it appears that the new AD 73 is a bit more conservative:
Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of their map.
Republicans won every race in 2010 within the boundaries of this district and registration shows that 48.9% of voters are Republican and only 25.6% of voters are Democrats. The conservative leaning DTS voters make up around 21.2% of the electorate.
An even bigger factor is that Harkey had the largest margin of victory in Orange County:
Member of the State Assembly; District 73
- Diane L. Harkey, Republican ………. 49,922 votes 70.2%
- James Corbett, Democratic ………. 21,173 votes 29.8%
This result makes it clear that Corbett has no chance in November. It also doesn’t help that he has not raised enough money to trigger online filing. Harkey on the other hand has over $164,000.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be: