“Travis Allen is the only candidate that will fight to support small businesses, ensure that our community can send their kids to quality schools, and he will not raise you taxes” continued Dr. Pham
.
Joe Dovinh added, “I am supporting Travis Allen because he is the candidate that will work to bring everyone together for the betterment of our community and state.” Dovinh continued, “Travis Allen is a consensus builder and his campaign is a perfect example of how Travis Allen can get members of different parties to come together.”

And with that I rest my rest my case that Edgar is toast. I stand by my prediction that the total vote count will look something like ” Allen 32724 votes and Edgar 23028.” So

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Travis Allen

Edgar will keep his votes
Allen will keep his votes

That leaves about 50% of the votes in the precinct available.

Long Pham has not selected his choice for endorsement, but one of the Vietnamese communities leading Republicans (Van Tran) has come out to endorse Allen and is participatory in his campaign and that goes a long way in the Vietnamese press.

Ayala voters were low information (D)’s [they really had to be to vote for Ayala] that voted for the first (D) name they saw on the ballot. With two (R)’s they may just not select one.

That means that Edgar has to make inroads into the Dovinh (D)’s. Now in a portion of the AD there is a reason for the (D)’s to come out [Lowenthal] and that bodes not so good for Edgar as that area knows him for the Trash Agreement mess that he got the City of Los Alamitos into. Add in that the most major voice against him in his own town is a guy that once ran for Congress as a (D) and getting those (D)’s looks less and less likely.

Now, if Dovinh or Nguyen were to in any way show that they support Allen over Edgar (in the choice of two candidates, neither which you can endorse, which is the lesser of the two evils kind of thing) that would cut even more from his chance to turn those (D) votes to his column.

So, Ayala votes drop out (let’s split the low information voter 50/50). And then 80% of Long and Joes votes float to Allen (Nguyen/Tran support)…

That would give Allen 32724 votes and Edgar 23028. In order for Edgar to win he would have to move about 4,500 of those votes away from Allen to him. Allen picked up a great deal of steam with the Tax’n Troy line during the Primary. If he goes after some of the recent revelations of the hidden taxes that were in the Los Alamitos trash agreement that might just resonate a bit too much for Edgar to get past even with his current cash advantage.

I’ll agree that this is a hard one to call, if only because the system has put two (R)’s on the ballot and the (D)’s already feel disenfranchised by that. I’ll also state that when a candidate has such a clear cash on hand advantage the desire is to move in their direction when making the call. But that cash on hand advantage is mostly Edgar’s own money. In other words, it’s fools gold. We have seen many politicians flush with their own cash NOT be able to buy public office, and that may be the case here.

There are still too many variables (Pham endorsement, Nguyen endorsement, Dovinh speaking out, etc.) in play to get a good read, but Edgar’s ability to self finance his campaign isn’t a slam dunk to the championship Assembly.