2012 General Election Predictions: 72nd Assembly District
Posted by Chris Emami on September 19, 2012
THis race is the one I am predicting will be the closest and most heated in Orange County. Surprisingly 2 Republicans advanced from the June election to make this race as interesting as it is. The district is somewhat comparable to a more coastal version of Allan Mansoor’s old assembly district when it was AD 68:
Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.
Party affiliation is meaningless in this race because they are both Republicans but it will be interesting to see which candidate targets the 31.6% of registered Democrats first. It is also interesting to note that Huntington Beach is the largest part of the district which is where Allen is from. Los Alamitos is the smallest city on the district which is where Edgar is from.
The results in June are inconclusive because it was close enough to where anybody could end up a winner in November. Here are the June results:
Member of the State Assembly; District 72
- Troy Edgar, Republican ………. 18,060 votes 28.0%
- Travis Allen, Republican ………. 12,851 votes 19.9%
- Joe Dovinh, Democratic ………. 12,432 votes 19.3%
- Long Pham, Republican ………. 12,409 votes 19.2%
- Albert Ayala, Democratic ………. 8,816 votes 13.7%
It is pretty amazing to see who close Allen, Dovinh, and Pham were to that 2nd place slot. Looking it the results it appears that Edgar has an advantage going into november which would mean that Travis Allen needs to raise his favorability amongst voters before voting in November.
Fundraising is the kicker for me, as Edgar has just under $100,000 in his account after the primary and Allen has just over $10,000 in his account. This can change with campaigning which will mean that this race will be extremely close. My prediction is based on the campaign as of right now and I reserve the right to change my opinion on this one:
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be: