2012 General Election Predictions: 69th Assembly District
Posted by Chris Emami on September 18, 2012
This prediction won’t make Republicans happy, but my goal here is to be realistic not optimistic.The 69th Assembly District has been a nightmare for Republicans since forever. The district is an Orange County seat that covers Santa Ana and part of Anaheim:
Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.
As you can see Democrats have a registration of 50.2%, Republican have a registration of 28.0%, and DTS have a registration of 18.2%. Republicans won nothing in this district back in 2010 but on an interesting note these are socially conservative Democrats as Prop 8 passed by over 20 points.
In the June election Jose Moreno advanced to June but he actually did worse than I projected falling almost 7% below Republican registration. Here are the results:
Member of the State Assembly; District 69
- Tom Daly, Democratic ………. 10,939 votes 39.2%
- Jose “Joe” Moreno, Republican ………. 5,980 votes 21.4%
- Julio Perez, Democratic ………. 5,738 votes 20.6%
- Michele Martinez, Democratic ………. 4,651 votes 16.7%
- Francisco “Paco” Barragán, Democratic ………. 605 votes 2.2%
Francisco Barragans total just utterly shocks me as I cannot believe he only got 605 votes. As you can see from the above numbers Moreno finished almost 18% behind Tom Daly and he was the only Republican in the race.
On an interesting note Daly is not doing so well on fundraising with only $22,000 left in his account after the primary election. Sadly Moreno is doing worse without the fundraising ability to trigger online filing.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be: