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2012 General Election Predictions: 68th Assembly District

Posted by Chris Emami on September 18, 2012

I have heard that this is the most Republican seat in California prior to 2010 redistricting, and this might still be the most conservative seat looking at the numbers.

Looking at the makeup of the 68th Assembly district it is apparent that not only do Republicans have almost a 20% registration advantage but the 21% of DTS voters are some of the most conservative voters in California:

The numbers here are pretty indicative of a big Wagner victory in November especially considering Republicans won every partisan election here in 2010. Despite the slim odds that we see on the map I will still break down this race as I have done the other ones.

Wagner has strong name ID here having not only served in the Assembly but also for his time on the South Orange County Community College District. Avalos is best known for her time as perennial candidate for Congress running against Ed Royce.

This race much like many others also had a dress rehearsal in June with the results leading me to believe Wagner will coast in November:

Member of the State Assembly; District 68

  • Donald P. “Don” Wagner, Republican ………. 43,241 votes 69.2%
  • Christina Avalos, Democratic ………. 19,254 votes 30.8%

Financially Wagner is also in much better shape than his opponent having raised over $70,000. Avalos has not raised enough to trigger online filing.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Don Wagner

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