2012 General Election Predictions: 65th Assembly District
Posted by Chris Emami on September 17, 2012
Now we get to what many people think will be the most competitive race in Orange County. I am afraid that I have bad news on this one for Democrats. This district is a Fullerton fight between longtime Fullertonian Chris Norby and Fullerton Mayor Sharon Quirk-Silva.
The district though spans even larger than Fullerton having Buena Park, Cypress, Stanton, & La Palma also within its boundaries:
Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.
In the interest of full disclosure my business partner and one of my co-editors on the blog Chris Nguyen has a full-time job working for the district staff of Chris Norby. I also want to point out that I did not talk to Chris Nguyen prior to writing this and he did not have any influence on this analysis.
One might argue that the voter registration is extremely close with Republicans at 38.0%, Democrats at 36.6%, and DTS at 21.0%. Although Republicans have just a 1.4% registration advantage DTS voters lean-to the right in this Orange County only district.
Looking at all 2010 races in this area the only race that Democrats won was the race for State Treasurer where the Democrats won by an amazing 0.14%. The other factor looking at things from an elections standpoint is the glorified poll that took place in June:
Member of the State Assembly; District 65
- Chris Norby, Republican ………. 29,917 votes 58.8%
- Sharon Quirk-Silva, Democratic ………. 20,936 votes 41.2%
My thoughts before the primary were that Quirk-Silva needed to finish with at least 45% of the vote to be competitive in June. These primary results surprised even me as I thought Norby would get around 56% of the vote. As you can see from the results Norby is positioned well based on the voters position in June.
Financially Norby also has an advantage having $136,636.01 in his account as of June 30th and Quirk-Silva having a bit less with $106,070.16 in her account as of the same time period. These are two very comparable numbers, but the fact of the matter is that a challenger (especially one with a poor June showing) needs to outspend their opponent.
With these factors already in place I will now point out a huge wild card in this race. They both have bi-partisan support amongst elected officials in this race. Stanton Mayor Carol Warren has crossed party lines to endorse Norby. Quirk-Silva has the support of Republican Brea Councilman Ron Garcia (Brea is not in the 65th). As for elected Councilmembers in the 65th Assembly district Norby has the advantage of 21 endorsements while Quirk-Silva lags behind at 5.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be: