2012 General Election Predictions: 29th Senate District
Posted by Chris Emami on September 13, 2012
(Sorry Greg but you are not going to like my prediction here. Feel free to chime in with your own take if you like.)
The 29th Senate District is the seat currently held by Bob Huff who is just finishing up his first term in the Senate:
Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.
The registration advantage for Republicans over Democrats is just 5% but 22% of voters are DTS and in this district those DTS voters lean-to the right. The party line vote held pretty steady for Huff in the primary:
State Senator; District 29
- Robert “Bob” Huff, Republican ………. 68,708 votes 64.3%
- Greg Diamond, Democratic ………. 38,169 votes 35.7%
Diamond finished 1.5% above Democratic registration in the district. Understandably turnout for Democrats will be slightly increased in the general election but it just won’t be enough to get Huff under 60%. I am actually a bit disappointed though because I would like to see Huff challenged a bit stronger not because I want to see him lose but because he has been on the wrong side of issues like redevelopment agencies among other things.
It won’t be a challenge to get his message out their either because Huff currently has just over $400,000 cash on hand for this race. Diamond on the other hand has not raised enough to trigger electronic filing on the Secretary of State website.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be: