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2012 General Election Predictions: 48th Congressional District

Posted by Chris Emami on September 12, 2012

After looking at a one of the most competitive seats in California yesterday, we know go back to the boring and obvious. In this case though the boring and obvious looks to be a good thing for Republicans.

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

As you can see from the map Republicans not only hold a 17% registration advantage over Democrats, but Democrats are holding just a slim 7% advantage over DTS voters. With DTS voters leaning more conservative in this area it leads to what will likely be one of the slam dunk races in Orange County.

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has held this seat for a while and has strong name ID especially in Huntington Beach & Costa Mesa which are the 2 largest cities in the district. Ron Varasteh just simply does not have the name ID.

Results in the primary also show that Rohrabacher is in a strong position to win with over 65& of the vote:

United States Representative; District 48

  • Dana Rohrabacher, Republican ………. 73,302 votes 66.3%
  • Ron Varasteh, Democratic ………. 31,912 votes 28.9%
  • Alan Schlar ………. 5,355 votes 4.8%

Varasteh ran directly in line with voter registration for his party and with Schlar running as a DTS candidate his votes will likely split between Rohrabacher and Varasteh.

Fundraising also is an advantage for Rohrabacher as when I tried to pull up the financial numbers for Ron Varasteh on the FEC website it informed me that he had no information to report. Rohrabacher reports over $280,000 cash on hand after the primary.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Dana Rohrabacher

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