2012 General Election Predictions: 47th Congressional District
Posted by Chris Emami on September 11, 2012
This seat is going to be the most competitive in Orange County, even though the largest part of the district is Long Beach. Take a look at the map with statistics:
Thank you to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their maps.
As you can see there is a 10% registration advantage for Democrats. However, DTS voters will lean more conservatively in this race. On top of the DTS voters the Orange County cities have a higher turnout level than the Long Beach portion of the district. In other words you have a very competitive seat on your hands.
The results from the primary election also show that it will be competitive, as Alan Lowenthal (D) ran just slightly ahead of Gary DeLong (R):
United States Representative; District 47
- Alan Lowenthal, Democratic ………. 27,356 votes 33.8%
- Gary Delong, Republican ………. 23,831 votes 29.4%
- Steven T. Kuykendall, Republican ………. 8,769 votes 10.8%
- Peter Mathews, Democratic ………. 7,951 votes 9.8%
- Steve Foley, Republican ………. 5,848 votes 7.2%
- Sanford W. Kahn, Republican ………. 2,563 votes 3.2%
- Usha Shah, Democratic ………. 2,350 votes 2.9%
- Jay Shah, Democratic ………. 2,273 votes 2.8%
Recently Probolsky research conducted a poll on behalf of the DeLong campaign that showed a good chance of a close race that slightly leans towards DeLong. You can see the memo that went out here. These results show that DeLong is in a slight lead for the seat.
Alan Lowenthal has just under $217,000 after the primary and Gary DeLong has about a $100,000 lead with just under $317,000 after the primary.
This race is extremely close in about every aspect from voter registration, fundraising, and campaigning (so far).
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be: