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2012 General Election Prediction: 46th Congressional District

Posted by Chris Emami on September 11, 2012

This race is the one that Republicans always get excited about with dreams of taking Loretta Sanchez out of office every 2 years. Loretta has never truly had a competitive race for this seat. Lets take a look at results since 1998:

1998- United States Representative; District 46

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 47,964 votes 56.5%
  • Robert Kenneth “Bob” Dornan, Republican ………. 33,388 votes 39.3%
  • Thomas E. Reimer, Libertarian ………. 2,316 votes 2.7%
  • Larry G. Engwall, Natural Law ………. 1,334 votes 1.5%

2000- United States Representative; District 46

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 70,381 votes 60.3%
  • Gloria Matta Tuchman, Republican ………. 40,928 votes 35%
  • Richard B. Boddie, Libertarian ………. 3,159 votes 2.7%
  • Larry Engwall, Natural Law ………. 2,440 votes 2%

2002- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 41,282 votes 60.9%
  • Jeff Chavez, Republican ………. 23,662 votes 34.9%
  • Paul Marsden, Libertarian ………. 2,871 votes 4.2%
  • Kenneth M. Valenzuela Fisher (Write-in)
  • Michael J. Monge (Write-in)

2004- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 65,684 votes 60.4%
  • Alexandria A. “Alex” Coronado, Republican ………. 43,099 votes 39.6%

2006- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 42,822 votes 61.8%
  • Tan Nguyen, Republican ………. 26,507 votes 38.2%

2008- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 85,706 votes 69.5%
  • Rosemarie Avila, Republican ………. 31,397 votes 25.5%
  • Robert Lauten, American Independent ………. 6,265 votes 5.0%

2010- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 50,832 votes 53.0%
  • Van Tran, Republican ………. 37,679 votes 39.3%
  • Cecilia Iglesias, Independent ………. 7,443 votes 7.7%

Van Tran is the one race where you could argue that he got Loretta under 60% and made her have to actually spend resources and run a real campaign. However, having another female Latina on the ballot on Ceci Iglesias likely pulled more votes from Sanchez than Tran.

Looking at the new 46th Congressional District it has become a bit more Republican with the addition of a portion of Orange. Here is the map of the district:

As always thank you to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their maps.

The Democrats currently have a 44%-32% registration advantage over Republicans, but the 19% of DTS voters lean-to the left in this district. Republicans did beat their registration by a substantial margin in the primary if you combine all of their votes:

United States Representative; District 46

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 25,706 votes 52.1%
  • Jerry Hayden, Republican ………. 14,571 votes 29.5%
  • John J. Cullum, Republican ………. 5,251 votes 10.6%
  • Jorge Rocha ………. 1,969 votes 4.0%
  • Pat Garcia, Republican ………. 1,852 votes 3.8%

Jerry Hayden did not have much competition in the primary, but he is in for what could be considered an uphill battle at best for the general election.

The fundraising in this race says it all. Loretta Sanchez despite being wiped out by Kindee Durkee has already rebuilt her campaign account having over $1,000,000 cash on hand after the primary. Jerry Hayden holds just over $12,000.

The name ID advantage also goes to Loretta Sanchez who is far better known in Santa Ana than Jerry Hayden is. This race is shaping up to be more of the same for Loretta.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Loretta Sanchez

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