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2012 General Election Prediction: 45th Congressional District

Posted by Chris Emami on September 11, 2012

This race in the primary pitted Tea Party darling John Webb, sitting U.S. Congressman John Campbell, and Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang for the right to advance to November. The results were extremely one-sided with John Campbell

United States Representative; District 45

  • John Campbell, Republican ………. 54,346 votes 51.0%
  • Sukhee Kang, Democratic ………. 35,182 votes 33.0%
  • John Webb, Republican ………. 17,014 votes 16.0%

As you can see from the results posted to the “Smart Voter” website despite having a Republican opponent Congressman Campbell still managed to break 50% in the primary.

Here is the map of the 45th Congressional District:

As always thanks to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their map.

I will give Sukhee Kang credit for running 5% above Democratic registration. However, with 22% of voters registered as DTS Kang did not have a great showing in the whole scheme of things. Also remember that Democrats tried the Irvine Councilmember strategy back in 2010 running Beth Krom against John Campbell. Krom did not have a great showing either:

United States Representative; District 48

  • John Campbell, Republican ………. 145,481 votes 60.0%
  • Beth Krom, Democratic ………. 88,465 votes 36.4%
  • Mike Binkley, Libertarian ………. 8,773 votes 3.6%

Kang is from Irvine, the largest city in the 45th Congressional District but unfortunately for him John Campbell also is from Irvine.

With a 20% Asian population in CD 45 you could make the argument that Kang will be one of the more competitive candidates in years. I would argue that party affiliation is more important when running for partisan office.

The fundraising tells a similar story with John Campbell at over $1,000,000 cash on hand after the primary election and Sukhee Kang having under $250,000 cash on hand. This is over a 4:1 ratio for the sitting Congressman.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

John Campbell

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