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2012 General Election Predictions: U.S. Senate

Posted by Chris Emami on September 10, 2012

It is once again time for my prediction series on the 2012 general election races that will appear on the ballot. I am not going to make predictions on all races, but I would say you can expect predictions on over 75% of them.

We are going to kick things off with the United States Senate race between Dianne Feinstein and Elizabeth Emken. In the primary election we had 24 candidates vying for this seat:

United States Senator

  • Dianne Feinstein, Democratic ………. 2,392,822 votes 49.3%
  • Elizabeth Emken, Republican ………. 613,613 votes 12.6%
  • Dan Hughes, Republican ………. 323,840 votes 6.7%
  • Rick Williams, Republican ………. 157,946 votes 3.3%
  • Orly Taitz, Republican ………. 154,781 votes 3.2%
  • Dennis Jackson, Republican ………. 137,120 votes 2.8%
  • Greg Conlon, Republican ………. 135,421 votes 2.8%
  • Al Ramirez, Republican ………. 109,399 votes 2.3%
  • Gail K. Lightfoot, Libertarian ………. 101,648 votes 2.1%
  • Diane Stewart, Democratic ………. 97,782 votes 2.0%
  • Mike Strimling, Democratic ………. 97,024 votes 2.0%
  • David Alex Levitt, Democratic ………. 76,482 votes 1.6%
  • Oscar Alejandro Braun, Republican ………. 75,842 votes 1.6%
  • Marsha Feinland, Peace and Freedom ………. 57,720 votes 1.2%
  • Robert Lauten, Republican ………. 56,524 votes 1.2%
  • Colleen Shea Fernald, Democratic ………. 51,623 votes 1.1%
  • Donald Krampe, Republican ………. 39,035 votes 0.8%
  • Don J. Grundmann, American Independent ………. 33,037 votes 0.7%
  • Dirk Allen Konopik, Republican ………. 29,997 votes 0.6%
  • John Boruff, Republican ………. 29,357 votes 0.6%
  • Nak Shah, Democratic ………. 27,203 votes 0.6%
  • Rogelio T. Gloria, Republican ………. 22,529 votes 0.5%
  • Nachum Shifren, Republican ………. 21,762 votes 0.4%
  • Kabiruddin Karim Ali, Peace and Freedom ………. 12,269 votes 0.3%
  • Linda R. Price, Republican (Write-in)

This data comes directly from the League of Women Voters “Smart Voter” website. Unfortunately for Republicans these numbers say it all. Feinstein almost managed to get 50% of the vote with 23 opponents running against her.

Unfortunately, this race is not Barbara Boxer vs. Carly Fiorina which was extremely competitive. Feinstein is the more moderate Democrat between the 2 Senators. Feinstein also hails from the bay area which is one of the largest 2 voting populations in California (the other being Los Angeles.

Many might argue that Feinstein is vulnerable because she was one of the victims of the Kindee Durkee scandal. However, Durkee may have taken all of her campaign money but Feinstein was listed as the 9th richest member of Congress in 2011. Also Diane Feinstein wrote her campaign a check for $5,000,000 after Durkee took her $4,500,000 during the alleged embezzlement scandal.

This race is going to take millions of dollars to do and with just over  $26,000 left after the primary election it just doesn’t seem like it is going to happen. On the other hand Feinstein had over $3,000,000 as of June 30th in her account

On a personal note I think Elizabeth Emken is a great person and I am hoping that all the stars will align for an upset on election night.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Dianne Feinstein

One Response to “2012 General Election Predictions: U.S. Senate”

  1. Brittany H Martin said

    I can not thank you adequately for the posts on your web site. I know you’d put a lot of time and effort into them and hope you know how much I appreciate it. I hope I’ll do exactly the same for someone else at some point.

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