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2012 General Election Predictions: 39th Congressional District

Posted by Chris Emami on September 10, 2012

The 39th Congressional District is another one that is not going to be a very close race. The map on this one will show you a seat split between Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Bernardino County.  Here is the map:

Thank you to the good people at Meridian-Pacific for the use of the map.

The results from the primary are also a pretty one-sided victory as you can see from the results it was a big victory for Ed Royce:

United States Representative; District 39

  • Ed Royce, Republican ………. 62,874 votes 66.3%
  • Jay Chen, Democratic ………. 28,457 votes 30.0%
  • D’Marie Mulattieri ………. 3,561 votes 3.8%

Any time that you can achieve a 2/3 vote in a primary election (open primary) it is a virtual guarantee that you will win in November.

Republican registration is just 41% with the Democrats not that far behind at 32.7%. However the 22.3% of DTS voters are leaning pretty far to the right. This is why Royce ran over 20 points higher than Republican registration. Jay Chen  was a huge disappointment finishing 2% below Democratic registration.

Royce also has the advantage of having a $2,000,000 campaign account to help him if he feels that he needs it. I would be shocked if he dips into this to a great extent. Jay Chen is not doing poorly for a candidate in this race with a $350,000 cash on hand total after June 30th, but it will take a lot more than that to defeat Royce.

Another factor is the map of the district geographically where Royce has extremely high name ID in Orange County which makes up the majority of the district. In fact Fullerton which is the home town of Royce is the largest city in the 39th Congressional District.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Ed Royce

2 Responses to “2012 General Election Predictions: 39th Congressional District”

  1. Royce home town is Anaheim, not Fullerton. He grew up on Tyrol Street. He is somewhat anti-military, anti-veteran, and is not a veteran as his opponent, a Naval Officer. Royce supported the back door draft which preventing combat military personnel from retiring.

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