How Fast is the Registrar of Voters Counting Ballots? When Will They Finish? Who Will This Affect?
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 14, 2012
On Friday evening, there were 17,125 uncounted ballots.
By Monday evening, there were 14,724 uncounted ballots, meaning 2,401 ballots were resolved on Monday.
By Tuesday evening, there were 9,528 uncounted ballots, meaning 5,196 ballots were resolved on Tuesday.
By last night, there were 4,625 uncounted ballots, meaning 4,903 ballots were resolved on Wednesday.
At the rate they’re going, it’s highly likely the Registrar of Voters completes the vote count today.
For visual learners:
There are only a few races that could still be affected by the outstanding ballots.
- Will Ray Grangoff close his 51-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District? Will Ken Williams close both his 115-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway and his 64-vote deficit to overtake Ray Grangroff for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?
- Will Bill Dunlap close his 62-vote deficit to overtake John Draper for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 74th District?
Those two races are the only ones in all of Orange County where the gap between the elected and the unelected (or 2nd and 3rd place in those fighting to advance to November from primaries) is 0.3% or less. It is highly unlikely the 4,625 outstanding ballots would move the needle any more than 0.3%.
There are a couple races where the current leads would be unaffected by the remaining 4,625 ballots, but where the gap could close enough to lead the 3rd or 4th place candidate to pay for a recount to advance to November from the primaries. (I’m assuming no one’s going to pay for a recount for any party’s Central Committee.)
|69th Assembly District|
|Tom Daly (D)||10,862||39.3%|
|Jose “Joe” Moreno (R)||5,933||21.5%|
|Julio Perez (D)||5,649||20.4%|
|Michele Martinez (D)||4,614||16.7%|
|Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D)||594||2.1%|
Team Perez is likely contemplating whether they’ll pay for a recount if they get within 1% of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno). Perez’s allies spent six figures trying to elect him, so the cost of a recount wouldn’t be out of the question for them.
|72nd Assembly District|
|Troy Edgar (R)||17,968||28.0%|
|Travis Allen (R)||12,726||19.8%|
|Joe Dovinh (D)||12,353||19.3%|
|Long Pham (R)||12,325||19.2%|
|Albert Ayala (D)||8,756||13.7%|
Long Pham is likely contemplating if he will pay for a recount if he gets within 0.5% of Travis Allen. It’s unlikely Joe Dovinh or his team have the financial resources to pay for a recount. Pham would need to dig into his own pockets for a recount. He’s already spent $100,000 of his personal funds on his campaign and making 2nd place to get to the November general election against Troy Edgar may be the only way he recoups that $100,000.
The 1% for Perez vs. the 0.5% for Pham is on the basis that Perez would be more aggressive than Pham in pursuing a recount, as Perez’s allies spent more and have deeper pockets to pay for a recount while Pham spent less and has more shallow (less deep?) pockets.