2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 73
Posted by Chris Emami on April 25, 2012
AD 73 is a bastion of conservatism, and it will be a safe Republican seat in both the June and November election for Assemblywoman Harkey.
Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.
The candidates include:
Dave Duringer- He is a gun trust attorney who I believe is involved in the tea party (not 100% sure on that. He also ran for the Central Committee back in 2010 prior to redistricting when his district was the 71st.
Mary Young- She has been an activist with the Republican Party of Orange County for a very long time. She is also campaigning the hardest of anybody I have ever seen for a Central Committee seat. *Incumbent.
Mike Munzing- He was at one point running against John Campbell for Congress and then wisely decided to run for Aliso Viejo City Council. He is very good at marketing himself from what I have witnessed through his many activities. *Incumbent.
Alice Anderson- She is currently an incumbent in this district. I would encourage those involved in OCGOP politics to seek out a way to sign her nomination papers if you live in this district. *Incumbent.
Norm Dickinson- Many people who I have talked to have said that he is the foremost expert on the bylaws in the Republican Party of Orange County. I cannot see that I disagree from what I have witnessed. *Incumbent.
Steve Magdziak- He is one of the few that has set up a website for his Central Committee race http://www.stevemagdziak.com/ His website does not include much information about his background but if I had to guess I would think he was part of the Ron Paul crowd.
Chandra Chell- She is active in Republican politics through Atlas PAC among other things and she has also been involved in the CRA among other Republican volunteer organizations. *Incumbent.
Linda Barnes- From a bit of research I have learned that she is part of the leadership team with OC912 a conservative group which is tied to the tea party.
Greg Woodard- He recently friended me on Facebook. After having a conversation with him I found that he is involved in a lot of conservative groups including Atlas PAC and Family Action PAC. He was also appointed to a seat on the OC GOP Central Committee making him an incumbent as well. *Incumbent.
Nancy Padberg- She was previously on the Central Committee but was one of the members that was ousted in this past election. As an elected official on the South Orange County Community College District, her name ID will be high.
Tony Beall- He currently is an incumbent on both the Central Committee and on the Rancho Santa Margarita City Council. He also has been a conservative voice on the issues involving the Capistrano Unified School District. *Incumbent.
Kevin Richardson- According to the very little that I could find out about him he is one of the co-founders of SOC912 which I referenced above (OC912).
Nina R. Davar- I am seeing a trend here as when I did a bit of googling I found her name attached to SOC912 as well as other candidates with tea party ties.
John C. Drew- A writer for Examiner.com on Republican Party of Orange County Republican politics. He had a lot of information on his bio including the fact that he is an award-winning political scientist.
Susan A. Bock- I was unable to find any information on her.
Nesa Anderson- She is a Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman from what I believe is San Clemente. She also won the lottery to appear first on the ballot.
Evan P. Chafee- He will appear on the ballot as a Marketing Sales Representative. All I could find about him is that he is from San Juan Capistrano.
Mark Dobrilovic- He is an activist that I have heard about tat runs in the Tea Party circles. He also ran for Mission Viejo City Council in 2010.
Jon Steven Fleischman- He is a major player in Republican Party Politics and he runs te popular Flash Report website. I definitely see him winning one of the 6 available seats.
Roy Fussell- A Realtor who is running, I was unable to find much more information.
Paul Hebbard- He is listed on the ballot as a Certified Public Accountant and outside of that I know very little.
Michael Kogus- He is listed on the ballot as a Business Owner, but like some of the other challengers I was unable to find any information on him.
Erik Stolaski- He is a Tea Party Republican who I believe worked on the Nelson for Supervisor campaign if I recall correctly.
The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:
1. Alice Anderson
2. Tony Beall
3. Mary Young
4. Mike Munzing
Greg Woodard Jon Steven Fleischman This was a mistake on my part when writing the post. My apologies to Greg Woodard who is a really nice guy and a very solid Republican.
6. Nancy Padberg