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Norby Vs. Quirk: Most Interesting Race in Orange County

Posted by Chris Emami on March 13, 2012

A surprise race that I did not think would happen this election is Fullerton Mayor Sharon Quirk-Silva challenging sitting Assemblyman Chris Norby.

The banner for Chris Norby:

The banner for Sharon Quirk-Silva.

What surprised me the most about this matchup is that Sharon Quirk-Silva will have to give up her council seat to run for this office. Most elected officials wait until midterm or when they are termed out to run for higher office. It wouldn’t be that important were it not for the fact that Fullerton has become a major fight between Republicans and Democrats.

Quirk-Silva was the last remaining Democrat on the City Council, although she was a bit more conservative than the trio that will likely be recalled in June. With my prediction being Greg Sebourn, Travis Kiger, and Barry Levinson winning the three council seats after the recall.

Republicans hold a 2 point registration advantage in AD 65 and Fullerton is the hub of this district. The problem for Quirk-Silva is that Norby is also from Fullerton and he is known outside of Fullerton as well. With DTS voter leaning a bit more conservative in this area I would have to say advantage Norby.

Norby has been one of the staunchest supporters of eliminating RDA’s and he was successful this year in eliminating them. He has also been a solid conservative voice in the Republican circles up in Sacramento. I figure that with AD 69 facing a Democratic Party money war this will free up more Republican money for this seat.

Norby should by no means rest on his laurels, but if I were a betting man I would bet on Norby to beat Quirk-Silva in June and that the Republicans will control all 5 council seats in Fullerton.

8 Responses to “Norby Vs. Quirk: Most Interesting Race in Orange County”

  1. A question was posed to me by a reader as to whether or not Norby getting 50% + 1 in June (would likely happen considering he is one of two candidates on the ballot) would allow Quirk-Silva to run for Council.

    I checked with a couple of individuals who are familiar with the new Prop 14 rules and found that even if Chris Norby gets 100% of the vote in June he will still have to run against Quirk-Silva in November.

  2. Dan Chmielewski said

    sorry, but Norby is vulnerable this year. He has little record of accomplishment in Sacramento and for someone who railed against public employee pensions, how many is he getting again? One for being a teacher, one for supervisor and one for assembly? Please let us know if Norby has ever sat through a meeting from beginning to end.

  3. If Mike Duvall had just been cooperative enough to commit his faux pas in the first few months of his final term and get kicked out in time for his replacement to be seated before December 2009, then Norby would be termed out in 2014 rather than 2016 and it might have made sense for Sharon to wait and run in two years. Ackerman (or whoever) dropped the dime on Duvall too late, though, and Norby’s not termed out until 2016.

    It wouldn’t make sense for Sharon to wait until 2016; she’d still be up for reelection. Her best electorate in this part of OC is the one that will be present in a Presidential election. Obama beat McCain in this district by 3.3%; Brown lost by 8.2% — but that was without an active campaign here. (I know about that having been in charge of his Orange County non-campaign.) 2014 won’t be as Democratic a year as 2012.

    Even if Republicans hold a 2-point registration advantage in the district — and you don’t, as it is only 1.2% — as the State Senate candidate in the underlying district I can assure you that that registration advantage will have been reversed (and probably more) by November. Meanwhile, Sharon will still play quite well in Fullerton, while libertarian Norby will not appeal well south of I-5. The question is whether we can get people south of I-5 to vote. The answer, as you’ll see, is yes.

    That Republicans won’t hold all 5 seats in Fullerton will already have been assured in June.

    You’re right about one thing, though, Chris E. — along with CD-47, it’s certainly the most interesting race in the county!

  4. [...] AD-65: Assemblyman Chris Norby (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running. Emami covered this race here. [...]

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