Posted by Chris Emami on January 31, 2012
The results were not even close in this one. I am not surprised by Romney winning but I am amazed by the margin of victory, as he is almost at 50% of the overall vote. With this result I don’t know that it will be much longer for this primary to be contested. This was a big win with the number of delegates at stake and a huge momentum boost for the Romney campaign.
On to Nevada where I think that Romney will win again on Saturday.
Posted in National | Tagged: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich | Leave a Comment »
Posted by HBK on January 31, 2012
This race is talked up as if it is a big deal, but realistically, Todd Spitzer is going to win this in a landslide. He has 1 bad vote in 3% @ 50 but a $1.5 Million warchest. Deborah Pauly has not done herself any favors with the comments she has made and the bridges she has burned and will likely raise less than $15,000.
Spitzer has all of the money, name recognition, and endorsements, including all four of Deborah Pauly’s council colleagues. This race will not be close, but judging by what has happened so far, these 2 candidates do not like each other and that could make it fun to watch.
Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: Deborah Pauly, Todd Spitzer | 6 Comments »
Posted by Chris Emami on January 31, 2012
Some big news recently has been with the potential recall of three Republican council members in Fullerton. This story has been covered very well by the bloggers at www.fullertonsfuture.org. People have asked me what my take is on the recall since the recall is targeting Republicans.
Usually my thought is that Republican money could be better spent targeting Democrats in the upcoming election. In this particular case though I am advocating that we do need to recall all three of these council members because they are hurting the Republican brand. The lone Democrat on the council Sharon Quirk-Silva is more conservative than the three targeted by the recall. Nobody on that council compares to Bruce Whitaker though who is a solid Republican on all issues.
I may not agree with Tony Bushala on every issue, but no matter what his motives are behind the recall these council members have simply got to go.
Posted in Fullerton | Tagged: Bruce Whitaker, Dick Jones, Don Bankhead, Pat McKinley, Sharon Quirk-Silva, Tony Bushala | 1 Comment »
Posted by Thomas Gordon on January 31, 2012
Polls are now open in Florida in what could be the turning point of the 2012 election season.
Back in 2007 McCain beat Romney 36 percent to 31 percent and it pretty much sealed the deal for McCain.
Can Romney energize South Florida and Hispanic voters and secure a victory this evening?
Here’s what you’ve got to do.
Tell us the first, second and third place finishers in today’s Florida election and include the percentages of the vote for each.
Whoever gets closest gets his or her choice of an Amazon, ITunes or Best Buy gift card compliments of OC Political.
Make sure you include your actual email address when you respond
(Don’t worry, it’s not visible to readers)
Posted in National | Tagged: election day, Florida, Gingrich, Paul, Romney, Santorum | 8 Comments »
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on January 31, 2012
This newsletter came across the wire yesterday from Assemblyman Don Wagner’s office:
2012 State of the State Address
The following is an excerpt from Assemblymember Wagner’s Press Release immediately following the 2012 State of the State Address.
Wagner objected to the governor’s efforts to couple his call for tax increases with threatened cuts to education. Echoing the headlines of several papers that the governor is holding education hostage to his tax increase ploy, Wagner called for the full funding of the state’s obligation to fund education. “The governor’s budget grows state spending over the next few years, he’s looking for taxes increases to fund that growth, and he’s threatening education if he doesn’t get his way?” asked Wagner. “That’s not right!” He added, “The governor spoke about turning more control of education over to local districts, and that’s great rhetoric. But his actions don’t match the talk. This is the same governor who signed an outrageous CTA backed bill last year tying the hands of local districts trying to respond to his unfortunate and unnecessary education cuts.” Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in 68th Assembly District | Tagged: Don Wagner | 5 Comments »
Posted by Chris Emami on January 31, 2012
This is a big day for Republican politics with the Florida Primary taking place today. Mitt Romney looks like he has surged at the right time in the polls, but anything can happen. My thoughts are that whoever win this one will be the nominee as momentum will be a big deal along with the vast number of Florida delegates.
Both candidate s have their flaws but I personally have serious issues with Newt Gingrich and his infidelity. As a Republican I felt that Bill Clinton during the Monica Lewinsky scandal was shameful in his actions and was a disgrace to the Presidency, I will not take it any easier on Gingrich because he is a Republican.
In fairness Romney has his issues on certain policies but I see him as the best option in a very lousy group of candidates.
Check back in with us for a recap and analysis of the results tonight.
Posted in National | Tagged: Bill Clinton, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich | 3 Comments »
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on January 30, 2012
This press release came across the wire today from Assemblywoman Harkey’s office:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Gino Folchi
January 30, 2012
Harkey Responds to Cap & Trade Funding Proposal
SACRAMENTO – Speaking to media in Los Angeles yesterday, Governor Jerry Brown told reporters that California’s high-speed rail project would be funded with $1 billion from the state cap and trade program which is not yet in operation. The Governor also stated that the $100 billion cost estimate for the project was “way off.” Assemblywoman Diane Harkey (R-Dana Point) responded to this today: Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in 73rd Assembly District | Tagged: Diane Harkey | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Chris Emami on January 30, 2012
Steve Rocco is back in the public eye having pulled papers to run against Supervisor Janet Nguyen in the 1st Supervisorial District. Rocco, as you may remember was elected to the Orange Unified School District back in 2004 and has since run for Santa Ana City Council, Orange County Public Administrator/Guardian, and now Orange County Supervisor.
Janet Nguyen will coast to victory if he is the only opponent for her in this election but rumors are swirling that either Jose Solorio or possibly Lou Correa will jump into this race. Hopefully the GOP will get behind her quickly and throw a lot of support her way as this seat does have a registration advantage for the Democrats.
Filing hasn’t even opened yet so we will have to wait and see who ends up being in the field after it is finalized. Fundraising will also be interesting with Kindee Durkee helping out numerous Republican candidates by draining numerous Democrats of their left over money, including I believe Solorio and Correa.
Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: Janet Nguyen, Jose Solorio, Lou Correa, Steve Rocco | 13 Comments »
Posted by Chris Emami on January 30, 2012
I would have loved to have posted an update on Saturday, but sadly “OC Political” did not exist yet. In what turned out to be a stunning turn of events last week Keith Carlson dropped out of the AD 74 race and endorsed Allan Mansoor. This was a classy move on the part of Keith and will spare a lot of Republican money from being wasted.
The remaining candidates for AD 74 who have announced include the Assemblyman Allan Mansoor, Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (supposedly union backed), Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio, and another gentleman, Paul Vann??? has also pulled papers for this office.
As of right now this race clearly remains a two person battle between Mansoor and Daigle both of whom are Republicans. On Saturday in a special meeting of the Central Committee Allan Mansoor received the endorsement of the OC GOP without a single vote being registered against him. Apparently Leslie Daigle was a no-show at the meeting and did not even attempt to block the endorsement.
The OC GOP endorsement is a very big deal in this race considering that there is a thirteen point Republican registration advantage in AD 74.
I am backing Allan Mansoor in this race as he has been a solid Republican in the State Assembly. What especially sat well with me was that he stood up against RDA’s and was a solid vote to abolish them.
Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, Joe Carchio, Keith Carlson, Leslie Daigle, Paul Vann | 3 Comments »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 30, 2012
On Friday, the California Supreme Court ruled that this year’s elections will go with the maps created by the Citizen’s Redistricting Commission. This bodes ill for Republicans statewide but could boost the strength of Republicans in Orange County. Examining the great district-by-district numbers put together by Matt Rexroad, Chandra Sharma, and the rest of the Meridian Pacific team, it appears to me that there are 11 safe Republican districts, 25 safe Democrat districts, and 4 swing districts.
To maintain the status quo, Republicans have to capture all 4 swing seats: the 5th (Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus Counties), 27th (LA & Ventura Counties), 31st (Riverside County), and 34th (Orange County). To reach a 2/3 majority to raise taxes and wreak other havoc on California, Democrats only need to capture half the swing seats. The 27th is the only one where a sitting Senator (Democrat Fran Pavley) is seeking the seat. The other three are wide open.
The 5th, 27th, and 31st will all be on the ballot this year. The 34th will be on the ballot in 2014. More than 711,000 Californians have signed the petition to put the map on the ballot this November. Whether the voters overturn the map or retain the map will likely have little effect on these four seats until at least 2016. Whoever wins the 5th, 27th, and 31st will be able to retain their seats through at least 2016, and any new map would likely have little effect on the 34th, as the shape of that district is heavily controlled by federal Voting Rights Act requirements. Furthermore, Correa keeps the seat until 2014.
No seat is closer than the 34th right here in Orange County. In the new 34th Senate District, held by termed out Democrat Lou Correa, Democrats hold a 0.6% registration advantage. (In the old 34th Senate District, where Correa beat Lynn Daucher by 1.4% in 2006 and won re-election over Lucille Kring by 31.6% in 2010, Democrats held a 12% registration advantage.) The Meridian guys have even dubbed the new 34th district “Open Republican” on their site.
Up for election in 2014, the SD-34 Republican nominee will very likely be either Supervisor Janet Nguyen or the new 72nd District Assemblyman (Tyler Diep or Matt Harper) and the Democrats’ nominee will very likely be either outgoing Assemblyman Jose Solorio or the new 69th District Assemblymember (Paco Barragan, Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, or Julio Perez). If the new Assemblymembers go for it, they’d have to risk their Assembly seats after just one term in order to run for the Senate. It would be a safe run for Nguyen and Solorio, as neither of them would be up for election in 2014. (For the record, I am not related to Supervisor Nguyen; 36% of Vietnamese people have the last name Nguyen.)
After 16 years in the hands of the Democrats, SD-34 could return to Republican control, producing the first all-Republican OC delegation to the State Senate since Rob Hurtt lost to Joe Dunn.
The new SD-34 includes:
- Santa Ana (325,000 people)
- Garden Grove (171,000 people)
- 48% of northern Huntington Beach (91,000 people)
- Westminster (90,000 people)
- 20% of Central/Eastern Anaheim (68,000 people)
- 13% of eastern Long Beach (61,000 people)
- Fountain Valley (55,000 people)
- Seal Beach (24,000 people)
- Los Alamitos (11,000 people)
- Rossmoor (10,000 people)
- 7% of southwestern Orange (10,000 people)
- Midway City (8,000 people)
Posted in 34th Senate District | Tagged: Janet Nguyen, Joe Dunn, Jose Solorio, Julio Perez, Lou Correa, Lucille Kring, Lynn Daucher, Matt Harper, Michele Martinez, Paco Barragan, Rob Hurtt, Tom Daly, Tyler Diep | 1 Comment »